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1、44,40,36,32,28,24,20,16,Deutsche BankMarkets Research,RatingHoldGlobal Emerging MarketsBrazil,CompanyPetrobras,Date27 October 2012Results,Oil&Gas,Price at 26 Oct 2012(USD)Target price,22.4026.00,ReutersPBR.N,BloombergPBR UN,Exchange TickerNYSPBR,52-week range,32.12-17.64,3Q results:QoQ improvement b
2、ut stillbelow DBe and consensus3Q results:QoQ improvement but still below DBe and consensusWe expect a negative market reaction to Petrobras3Q results.Not so muchbecause of the miss versus our and consensus expectations but mainlybecause the negative trends seen in the quarter are likely to recur go
3、ingforward:(1)lower domestic oil output although September should be thetrough level in 2012,(2)refinery losses and(3)higher costs.Despite in linesales,EBITDA was 5%below our estimates while EPADR of$0.42 was wellbelow our expectations.Main positive triggers in the short term are:(1)priceincrease an
4、d to a lesser extent,(2)production recovery.Reiterate Hold.Cost increases in 3Q.More details on the cost reduction program in DecemberWhile costs increased in 3Q,some of them should subside in upcomingquarters such as lifting and refining costs,reflecting higher maintenance andlower production.Also,
5、the company reported a rise in labor costs due to theannual wage increase.The company has recently announced the PROCOP,Marcus SequeiraResearch Analyst(+1)212 250-Luiz FonsecaResearch Analyst(+55)11 2113-Price/price relative,(cost cut program)that should be detailed in Dec12 and implemented in Jan13
6、.,10/10,4/11,10/11,4/12,E&P:below expectation due to lower production and higher costs,PetrobrasBOVESPA(Rebased),The E&P segment reported EBITDA of R$19.6bn,13%below DBe.Differencesversus our estimates came from:(1)higher exploration costs,(2)lower thanexpected domestic oil production,(3)higher lift
7、ing costs,and(4)higherdiscount to intl crudes.Outlook for the E&P segment should remain,Performance(%)AbsoluteBOVESPA,1m-3.1-5.3,3m14.66.1,12m-10.90.2,challenging until late 2013 when production is expected to start recovering.Refining:still deep in the red but better than expected due to lower impo
8、rtsNegative EBITDA of R$7.4bn was better than our negative EBITDA estimate ofR$9.4bn.Main differences versus our estimates were:(1)lower refinedproducts imports,(2)slightly lower sales of refined products,(3)increasedrefinery productivity.Those items were offset by:(1)high gap of domesticprices vers
9、us import parity=subsidies,(2)lower refined products exports,(3)lower average realization prices,and(4)higher net import position.Outlook forRefining depends on the governments decision to end price subsidies.Therecent close of price gap in gasoline is not expected to remain in 2013.Balance sheet an
10、d cash flowPetrobras net debt/net equity ratio remained stable at 28%(versus 28.2%in2Q12 but increased from 21.7%in 3Q11).During the quarter,Petrobrascapexreached R$19.8bn versus operating cash flow of R$16.4bn.YTD capex reachedR$55.9bn.Valuation:DCF based PT of$26.Upside risks:increased productiona
11、nd prices;downside risk:more government interference.See page 8.Forecasts And Ratios,Year End Dec 31P/E(x)EV/EBITDA(x)Dividend yield(%),2010A12.38.62.2,2011A10.97.52.9,2012E11.47.73.6,2013E8.36.94.2,2014E7.86.24.5,Source:Deutsche Bank estimates,company data_Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.All prices ar
12、e those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated.Prices are sourcedfrom local exchanges via Reuters,Bloomberg and other vendors.Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subjectcompanies.Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its resea
13、rch reports.Thus,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.DISCLOSURES ANDANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.
14、MICA(P)072/04/2012.,27 October 2012Oil&GasPetrobrasPetrobras 3Q12 reviewQoQ improvement but still below DBe and consensus.Marginsdeteriorate furtherReported net revenues of R$73.8bn came in line with our forecasts,but consolidatedEBITDA of R$14.4bn came in 5%short of expectations(-14%YoY but+36%QoQ)
15、andconsensus of R$15.8bn.Finally,Petrobras net income of R$5.6bn(EPADR of$0.42)came in well below our R$7.5bn estimate due to lower operating results,higherfinancial and FX expenses and higher tax rate.At a segment level,E&P operating results were negatively impacted by lowerproduction,lower average
16、 realization prices and higher costs(although much improvedQoQ).Meanwhile,losses in the refining business came in lower than estimatedreflecting lower imports.Figure 1:Petrobras 3Q12 income statement3Q12A,(R$mn)E&PRefiningGas&EnergyInternationalDistributionEliminationsNet salesCOGSGross Profit,3Q12A
17、35,38359,7466,0779,25820,293(56,964)73,79355,70718,086,3Q12E37,42562,4815,5148,01720,278(60,306)73,40854,75718,651,3Q11A30,79151,5174,6817,22719,312(49,349)64,17943,82020,359,2Q12A36,00855,2425,5258,52618,642(55,896)68,04752,03216,015,3Q12E-5%-4%10%15%0%-6%1%2%-3%,3Q11A15%16%30%28%5%15%15%27%-11%,2Q
18、12A-2%8%10%9%9%2%8%7%13%,Gross margin,24.5%,25.4%,31.7%,23.5%,Exploration expensesSG&A expensesR&D expensesTaxesOtherOperating expensesOperating profit,1,2925,0735861712,3649,4868,600,1,0655,0984491802,0818,8749,778,7854,6206711691,7928,03712,322,3,4164,8454311701,87110,7335,282,21%0%30%-5%14%7%-12%
19、,65%10%-13%1%32%18%-30%,-62%5%36%1%26%-12%63%,Operating margin,11.7%,13.3%,19.2%,7.8%,EBITDA,14,375,15,167,16,677,10,599,-5%,-14%,36%,EBITDA Margin,19.5%,20.7%,26.0%,15.6%,Net interest resultsNet FX gain/(loss)Equity incomePre-tax profitTaxesMinority InterestNet earnings,(114)(455)1928,223(2,588)(68
20、)5,567,466(237)(300)9,707(2,524)3007,483,1,295(6,579)(472)6,566(1,292)1,0626,336,766(7,173)(426)(1,551)(320)525(1,346),-124%92%-164%-15%3%-123%-26%,-109%-93%-141%25%100%-106%-12%,-115%-94%-145%nm709%-113%nm,EPSEPADR(US$),0.430.42,0.570.57,0.490.59,(0.10)(0.11),Source:Deutsche Bank and company report
21、s,Page 2,Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.,27 October 2012Oil&GasPetrobrasE&P:pressured by lower production and prices,higher liftingcostsThe E&P segment reported EBITDA of R$19.6bn,13%below our R$22.7bn estimate(+7%YoY and 1%QoQ).Nonetheless,EBITDA margin of 55%improved sequentially(54%in 2Q12)but drop
22、ped versus 60%in 3Q11.The main items affecting the E&P performance during the quarter were:(-)higher exploration expenses of R$1.1bn versus our R$936mn estimate(+20%),R$630mn in 3Q11,but much lower than the R$3.3bn reported in 2Q12 due to lowerwrite-off of dry and sub commercial wells seen last quar
23、ter.According to the company,higher maintenance and well intervention needed in the period resulted in the pickup inexploration costs.However,government take of US$18.76/bbl was lower than ourforecast of US$19.21/bbl,due to lower production.(-)lower than expected domestic oil production:Petrobras re
24、ported very weakdomestic oil production figures during the month of September of 1.844mn bpd(-4%MoM)which was the weakest level since Nov08.That led production during thequarter to average 1.904mn bpd,2%lower versus our expectations(-4%YoY and-3%QoQ).The 66tbpd drop QoQ reflected:(1)higher maintenan
25、ce stoppages(-25tbpd)and(2)natural decline of mature fields(-57tbpd).Also the loss of production from theFrade field,closed since early this year,contributed to 18tbpd lower volumes.Partiallyoffsetting lower production were:(1)higher production from the pre-salt Lula field(+9tbpd)we note production
26、in Lula had to be suspended for a few days duringSeptember due to issues in the CO2 compressors,(2)start of production at Baleia Azulfield(+6tbpd)and(3)lower operational losses(+17tbpd),effect of the PROEF.(-)higher lifting costs of US$15.42/bbl versus our estimates of US$13.62/bbl(+13%)lifting cost
27、s rose 15%both YoY and QoQ.The increase reflects higher maintenance andwell intervention in the Marlim and Albacora fields,higher personnel costs and lowerproduction.Lifting costs were helped by the Real weakness during the quarter.(-)higher than expected discount to international crudes:During 3Q12
28、,the discount ofPetrobras crude to intl benchmarks increased to US$8.10/bbl from US$3.90/bbl in2Q12 but dropped versus US$10.60/bbl in 3Q11.That led to lower average realizationprices of US$108.80/bbl versus our estimates of US$105.90/bbl.Outlook for the remaining of 2012 and 2013 is discouragingWe
29、dont expect production to improve significantly in the short term,although the endof maintenance shutdowns should help domestic oil production levels.For 2013,thecompany expects to maintain a flat output until late in the year,when new units andimproved efficiency in the Campos basin should start to
30、 show results.Petrobras stated the PROEF program already showed some progress since it wasimplemented,but those results are still minimal for a company the size of Petrobras.According to the company,efforts helped on the recovery of 17tbpd.Nonetheless,webelieve that any significant improvements from
31、 the program should only materialize inthe coming years.Petrobras should launch the PROEF Unidade Operacional Rio inNovember with the same objectives of the PROEF Unidade Operacional Campos.,Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.,Page 3,27 October 2012Oil&GasPetrobrasFigure 2:Petrobras:upstream highlights3Q1
32、2A,(US$)Crude Brent$/bblCrude Oil ProductionDomesticInternationalNatural Gas ProductionDomesticInternationalTotal ProductionAverage Crude Realized Price($/bbl)Average Discount to Brent($/bbl)Lifting Cost-BrazilGovernment takeTotal lifting costs,3Q12A109.902,0461,904142471377942,517101.80-8.1015.4218
33、.7634.18,3Q12E109.902,0961,950146462363992,558105.90-4.0013.6219.2132.83,3Q11A113.462,1081,9781304563561002,564102.86-10.6013.3717.8831.25,2Q12A108.192,1131,970143459362972,572104.29-3.9013.4018.9132.31,3Q12E0%-2%-2%-3%2%4%-5%-2%-4%103%13%-2%4%,3Q11A-3%-3%-4%9%3%6%-6%-2%-1%-24%15%5%9%,2Q12A2%-3%-3%-
34、1%3%4%-3%-2%-2%108%15%-1%6%,Source:Deutsche Bank and company reportsRefining:price increases only reduced the bleeding,importsubsidies have to end.The refining segment reported an EBITDA loss of R$7.4bn during the quarter,whichcame in better than our estimate of a loss of R$9.4bn.The main difference
35、 versus ourestimates was lower than expected refined products imports.The main items affecting the refining segment during the quarter were:(+)lower refined products imports of 437mn bbl versus our estimates of 514mn bbl,reflecting lower diesel imports offset by higher gasoline imports.(+)slightly l
36、ower sales of refined products versus expectations of 238mn bbl(-1%).Demand,however grew by 4%both YoY and QoQ.We believe lower demand ispositive for Petrobras as it results in lower import needs which are subsidized by thecompany.In fact,imports were also lower than expected,especially of diesel du
37、e tohigher domestic production.(+)increased refinery productivity:during the quarter,capacity utilization ratioincreased to 98%(from 96%in 2Q12 and 93%in 3Q11),while utilization of domesticcrude remained stable at 82%both YoY and QoQ.Average throughput of 1.974mn bpdalso rose sequentially and versus
38、 last years.This resulted mainly in higher dieselvolumes produced in the period.(-)lower prices versus import parity,resulting in subsidy of imported gasoline anddiesel,partially offset by price adjustments in June and July.Please see Figures 4 and5.(-)lower refined products exports due high domesti
39、c demand and deliveries expectedfor the next quarter.(-)lower average realization prices of$123.66/bbl versus our estimates of$128.30/bbl.,Page 4,Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.,27 October 2012Oil&GasPetrobras(-)higher refining costs of$4.62/bbl versus our estimate of$3.99/bbl and previousquarters of$
40、3.91/bbl due higher personnel costs(effect of annual wage increase)andmaintenance.(-)higher net import position versus our estimates of 271mn bbl,especially due tohigher crude imports so to improve refinery yields.Figure 3:Petrobras downstream highlights3Q12A,Downstream Volumes mn boe/dRefining reve
41、nues(US$)Refining gross profit(US$),3Q12A29,462-3,074,3Q12E30,811-4,042,3Q11A31,482-1,418,2Q12A28,185-4,055,3Q12E-4%-24%,3Q11A-6%117%,2Q12A5%-24%,Refining gross margin,-10.4%,-13.1%,-4.5%,-14.4%,Refined prod sales(MM bbl)Average Realized Price(US$/bbl)Average crude oil cost-domRefining Margin(US$/bb
42、l)Gross Profit/bblCrude oil exportsCrude oil importsRefined product exportsRefined product importsNet export(import)position,238$123.66$101.80$21.86-$12.90375385176437(271),240$128.30$105.90$22.40-$16.83384348223514(256),230$136.85$102.86$33.99-$6.17400316222499(193),229$122.81$104.29$18.52-$17.6735
43、1341203383(170),-1%-4%-4%-2%-23%-2%11%-21%-15%6%,4%-10%-1%-36%109%-6%22%-21%-12%40%,4%1%-2%18%-27%7%13%-13%14%59%,Source:Deutsche Bank and company reportsRefining outlook depends on pricing.Company is reaching fullcapacity.Despite the increase in gasoline and diesel prices,results remained deeply in
44、 the red asthe prices of both products remained below import parity during the whole quarterresulting in the subsidy of gasoline and diesel imports.The timing of a new price increase is unclear at this point,although some investorsbelieve in an announcement soon.We note that during the past week,gas
45、oline pricesdecreased significantly in the US,while diesel prices remained stable.That resulted indomestic prices converging to import parity while the discount in diesel remains.Another concerning point in our view is that Petrobrasrefineries have been working atvery high capacity utilization rates
46、,reaching 98%in the quarter,despite a lacklustereconomic environment.We are concerned about the capacity of the company andpossible bottlenecks if consumption continues to increase.Demand destruction in thecase of Brazil is not a bad thing.,Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.,Page 5,Jan-02,Apr-02,Jul-02,O
47、ct-02,Jan-03,Apr-03,Jul-03,Oct-03,Jan-04,Apr-04,Jul-04,Oct-04,Jan-05,Apr-05,Jul-05,Oct-05,Jan-06,Apr-06,Jul-06,Oct-06,Jan-07,Apr-07,Jul-07,Oct-07,Jan-08,Apr-08,Jul-08,Oct-08,Jan-09,Apr-09,Jul-09,Oct-09,Jan-10,Apr-10,Jul-10,Oct-10,Jan-11,Apr-11,Jul-11,Oct-11,Jan-12,Apr-12,Jul-12,Oct-12,Jan-02,Apr-02,
48、Jul-02,Oct-02,Jan-03,Apr-03,Jul-03,Oct-03,Jan-04,Apr-04,Jul-04,Oct-04,Jan-05,Apr-05,Jul-05,Oct-05,Jan-06,Apr-06,Jul-06,Oct-06,Jan-07,Apr-07,Jul-07,Oct-07,Jan-08,Apr-08,Jul-08,Oct-08,Jan-09,Apr-09,Jul-09,Oct-09,Jan-10,Apr-10,Jul-10,Oct-10,Jan-11,Apr-11,Jul-11,Oct-11,Jan-12,Apr-12,Jul-12,Oct-12,27 Oct
49、ober 2012Oil&GasPetrobras,Figure 4:Gasoline prices PBR vs.GoM130%115%100%85%70%55%40%25%10%-5%-20%-35%-50%-65%,Figure 5:Diesel prices PBR vs.GoM100%85%70%55%40%25%10%-5%-20%-35%-50%,Disc PBR to GoMSource:Deutsche Bank and Bloomberg Finance LP,Average,Disc PBR to GoMSource:Deutsche Bank and Bloomberg
50、 Finance LP,Average,Other segments:Intl and Distribution surprise in 3Q12Gas&Energy:EBITDA of R$927mn came in 5%below expectations,but almostdoubled sequentially,reflecting:(1)better average realization prices of natural gas,reflecting better sales mix,(2)lower imports of LNG and natural gas from Bo
