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1、Scenario Planning,Agenda,PrinciplesGenerating scenariosA scenario projectOrganising a scenario workshop,Predicting the future,Niels Bohrsaid“Predicting is very difficult,especially if its about the future.”A mayor in early twentieth century Pennsylvania“I can foresee the day when there will be one o
2、f these(a telephone)in every town”Conservative political thinker Edmund Burke“You can never plan the future by the past”,Forecasting the future,Predicting technology futures,Predicting oil prices,Japan Foresight ReviewForesight started in Japan early 50sReview of accuracy after 25 yearsFound that ac
3、curacy better if for instance:Future of chemistryConsulted chemists plus chemical engineers,physicists,biologists,economist,mathematiciansProblems of shared assumptions not made explicitThinking influenced by todays agendaNow received wisdom to look wide for a range of weak signals as well as extrap
4、olate current trends,Lessons on Forecasting,Why forecasts miss,Governments less effective,People more sensible,Technologypush doesnt,Progress?,Scenarios,Scenarios are“an internally consistent view of what the future might be”,“not a forecast but one possible future outcome”Professor Michael Porter,H
5、arvard Business School,Forecasts Scenarios,Forecasts and Scenarios,Memories of the Future,Ingvar,a neurobiologist found that the human brain is constantly attempting to explore options for the future even while we are asleepThese“memories of the future”act as a filter to extraneous signals.one role
6、for models is to provide a context for these explorationsScenarios provide several alternative model futures for the brain to explore increases the ability of the brain to perceive,speeds the response.Scenarios can increase the range of“what we have experienced”and“what is relevant to our future”.,“
7、843”trendsAlternateIdeas&PortfolioEarly indicatorsinterconnected futuressystems management TimescalesPlanning Decisions Resources,Scenarios and decisions,Horizon Scenarios Strategy Decision ImplementationScanningmaker,Agenda,PrinciplesGenerating scenariosA scenario projectOrganising a scenario works
8、hop,Generating scenarios,Why?Should we use scenario planningPublic sector,private sectorWhen?Are they useful&when notSingle dominant factorConnection to decisions/implementationWho?Should take partInsiders,outsidersWhat?Results might we expectdecisionsHow?Do we generate scenarios5 steps,Why use scen
9、arios?,Public sectorECs High Level Expert Group on Converging TechnologiesCreate common languageHealth&Safety ExecutiveGet ahead of public attitudesPrivate sectorShell,Erste Allgemeine VersicherungAnticipate geopolitical futuresArup,BPTest strategic plan against possible futuresRoche,BAE SystemsDeve
10、lop Corporate Social Responsibility policies for different African countries/exposure to the US,When are scenarios useful?,To create common languageDo not start a scenarios project ifThere is no decision process in place to take actionsWhen the industry is being affected by a single overwhelming fac
11、torWhen the organisation is in panic modeDo use scenariosTo create models which can then be recognisedTo anticipate changeSo that plans are in place when they happenTo test strategic plans for branching/decision points,Who should take part?,Core teamNeed a team member who has completed a scenario pr
12、ojectLinks to decision makers e.g Board sponsorThree to six membersBalance insiders e.g long time employees outsiders e.g new hires,consultantsGet data&insights from web,insiders,competition,regulators etcCore team often work part-time over several monthsVery mentally tiring!,How many scenarios?,Fou
13、r scenarios creativity or visionEC,HLEGThree scenarios danger is“middle one is the forecast”Erste Allgemeine Versicherung,Roche,BAE SystemsTwo scenarios qualitative differencesShell,ArupMore than four difficult for people to see the differencesAn important aspect of scenarios is communication,What r
14、esults to expect,A set of scenariosUse of STEEP(societal,technological,political,environmental,economic)data to set contextUse of qualitatively different worlds within this contextScenarios described depending on audienceComparison tables for Strategic PlannersNarrative,story as told by a character
15、in the future for wider useVideo,actors for public engagementOrganisation alerted to early indicators of scenariosBetter decision making,Workshops&projects,Workshops to generate scenariosMarketing,based on extensive research before handManagement development,to benefit participants and create shared
16、 language results not usedAfter Merger or Acquisition,workshop to explore shared assumptionsWorkshops using pre-built scenarios,to test or develop strategyProjects to generate and use scenariosStrategic decision makingwith time to interview sources of data and insight,develop ideas over a periodenga
17、ge with Board,write up in detail for Strategic Planners,create storylines and video for wider use.,Agenda,PrinciplesGenerating scenariosA scenario projectOrganising a scenario workshop,Project to generate scenarios,Startup:QuestionScopeTeamBudgetTimescaleReportingInformationExchange Launch,Step 1Mon
18、th 1,Step 2Months 2-4,Step 3Month 5,Step 4Month 6,Step 5Month 7,Diagnosis:InterviewsAnalysisSynthesisResearchFeedback,Issues(expert)Workshops:ExternalMarketInternal,ScenarioWorkshop:TrendsUncertaintiesClustersNamesStorylinesTimelines,Options:Triage“just do it”More workNoAction planFeedbackTeam celeb
19、rate,Health and Safety Executive,Health&Safety Executive(HSE)employees about 20,000 peopleResponsible for setting standards for health and safety at workManages high risk industries directly(eg oil rigs)Regulates local government enforcement of other industriesHealth&Safety Laboratories had a team o
20、f 6 people doing horizon scanningHorizon scanning team did not find it easy to communicate with the BoardWorked with experienced consultants SAMI and Infinite Futures to develop scenarios Presented scenarios at HSE conferenceUse scenarios to drive new thinking about the role of the Health and Safety
21、 Executive,Step 1:Startup,Question:What is the shape of society and government by 2020 and what effect will this have on health and safety at work?Scope:UK,2020Team:HSL horizon scanning team(6),Wendy Schultz(Infinite Futures),Gill Ringland,Adrian Davies,Martin DuckworthBudget:50,000(for consultants)
22、Timescale:May 2006 to December 2006Reporting:HSE sponsor,through to BoardInformation Exchange:Used a software tool called basecamp to share informationLaunch:May 2006,Step 2:diagnosis,Interviews25 interviews,staffed by 1 HSL+1 consultantAnalysisCaptured in a workbook,Takes each thought from each int
23、erview and categorizes it as external,competition,internale.g globalisation external factorSynthesisDecide on most important factors:eg,work/life balance,attitude to risk(26 issues)Also events(eg Olympics 2012)which will change attitudesResearchHSL team established data to support(or otherwise)all 2
24、6 major issuesFeedbackShort paper to the Board on progress,Step 3:Consult experts,HSL team researched all 26 major issuesSome could be foreacst and could be built into the scenarioseg increase in disruptive technologieseg increase in average age in the UK(even allowing for immigration)Others were op
25、en questionseg attitudes to privacy and riskeg culture dependency or self relianceeg effect of globalisation on UKPack for scenarios workshop included a paragraph on each of the issues,plus a short analysis of possible events,Step 4:Scenario Workshop,InviteesHSE wanted to invite influencers from acr
26、oss HSEAlso some outsidersTotal of 28 people so did most of working in 4 syndicates of 7 to give participants air timeEvent duration 2 days,all had dinner together over-nightKick-off and introduction to process Board sponsor,also took part throughoutHeld at HSEs new conference facilities in Bootle,L
27、ancashireEmphasised need for good room dynamics,heat&light,flip charts,water in the rooms,etc,Scenario Workshop,Day One,Syndicates Full Group,Step 4:scenario matrix,Scenarios are built from Uncertainties in this box plus trends(forecastable),Forecastable,You set up a Forecasting unit totrack these t
28、rends,Important,Less important,Uncertain,Step 4:Scenario cross,Personal responsibility,pro-active adoption of technology,management of risk,Blame culture,resistance to new technology,rejection of risk,Decreased UK competitiveness,Increased UK competitiveness,Scenario Workshop,Day Two,Syndicates Full
29、 Group,Step 4:naming the scenarios,Worked in pairs to brainstorm nameseach pair chose a scenario to namevoting on namesVirtue of NecessityDigital Rose GardenTough ChoicesBoom and BlameSyndicates to develop storylines for their scenarioEarly indicatorsTrigger eventsHeroes&villainsTypical front page i
30、n 2020,Step 4:winding up the workshop,Syndicates presented scenario storylinesUsing Google imagesSound trackSyndicates very competitive!In plenary,brainstormed the big issues for the organisation in each scenarioAll scenarios implied changesBrief from Board sponsor on next stepsConference for 120 ke
31、y influencersWind-tunnelling workshopBoard paperUsed electronic feedback form for the event.,Step 5:Options,Conference participants asked to brainstorm of options what should the HSE do?Common options across all scenarios e gEducating next generation of stakeholders re:emerging risks,risk management
32、-and communicationContingent options depending on the scenario egDistinguish more clearly between the roles of enforcer and advisor two brands,if not two organisations(Digital Rose Garden)With SMEs,fiscal incentives rather than sanctions-changing behaviour(Virtue of Necessity)One day wind-tunnelling
33、 workshopTest the options developed at the conference against the scenarios Triage into Just do it,Research,Bin,Wind Tunnelling Example,Triage,Unclassifiable,Next steps at HSE,Actions from the Wind-tunnelling workshop in the Board paper for FebruaryJust Do It actions eg Education in riskResearch on
34、eg With SMEs,fiscal incentives rather than sanctions-changing behaviour what is experience elsewhere?Business plan for developing role as adviser by consultancy outside the UKWider programme inside HSE&its local government partners rolling out the scenarios to promote culture change,Summary,Principl
35、es of scenario thinkingForecastsDecision making Generating scenariosWhy?When?Who?What?How many?How?A scenario project step by stepGathering the source informationOrganising a scenario workshopUsing the scenarios to set strategy,After the break and case study lecture we will do a group exercise based on organisations chosen by the class,using the 26 issues from the Health&Safety Executive and creating scenarios for 2020.,
