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1、,Year-over-yeargrowth(%),高盛集团,2013 年 1 月 26 日美国,美股观点,证券研究报告,标普 500 指数 2012 年四季度盈利的最新动态标普 500 指数成份股中已有 147 家企业发布了 2012 年四季度业绩（占总市值的 43%）。通讯服务板块预计出现亏损，主要原因在于 Verizon(VZ)和 AT&T(T)的高额养老金支出。这些支出导致整体股指的每股盈利下滑 4%，工业股和金融股也拖累了整个股指的盈利水平。尽管苹果公司的业绩不及预期，但其四季度每股盈利仍高于市场预测，因此对整体股指盈利的贡献积极。下周将有 109 家企业发布业绩，占标普 500 指数
2、总市值的 24%。,2012 年四季度每股盈利预计同比增长 1%至 24.03 美元业绩期伊始，标普 500 指数每股盈利料将较市场预测低 6%。尽管销售收入改善，但增速依然较低。标普 500 指数（剔除金融股和公用事业股）的销售收入增长了 3%。标普 500 指数 2012 全年每股盈利预计为 98 美元2012 全年每股盈利将比 2011 年的 96 美元高 1%，剔除金融股和公用事业股后全年销售收入将比去年高 4%。四个季度滚动利润率可能为 8.6%，略低于上季度水平并较 2011 全年水平低 30 个基点。利润率在 2011 年三季度达到峰值 8.9%。2012 年四季度每股盈利预计同
3、比增长 1%截至 2013 年 1 月 24 日,Amanda Sneider,CFA(212)357-9860 高思庭(212)902-6781 高盛集团Stuart Kaiser,CFA(212)357-6308 高盛集团Ben Snider(212)357-1744,302520,16,19,17,Bottom-up ConsensusForecast,19,23,高盛集团Peter Lewis(212)902-9693 高盛集团,15105,8,7,2,1,8,10,Rima Reddy(801)884-4794 高盛集团,0,(5)(10),(5),1Q,2Q,3Q,4Q,1Q,2Q
4、,3Q,4Q,1Q,2Q,3Q,4Q,2011,2012,2013,资料来源：Compustat、FirstCall、高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究高盛与其研究报告所分析的企业存在业务关系，并且继续寻求发展这些关系。因此，投资者应当考虑到本公司可能存在可能影响本报告客观性的利益冲突，不应视本报告为作出投资决策的唯一因素。有关分析师的申明和其他重要信息，见信息披露附录，或参阅 由非美国附属公司聘用的分析师不是美国 FINRA 的注册/合格研究分析师。,高盛集团,高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究,RevenueSurprise,PositiveSurprises,(%oftotal),P/E,P/E,4
5、0 quarter,55,50,2,2013 年 1 月 26 日S&P 500 earnings results as of January 25,2013Exhibit 1:S&P 500 4Q 2012 earnings resultsS&P 500 EQUAL-WEIGHTED,美国,EARNINGS,REVENUE,Return,Number of Companies,Std Dev Surprises(a),Absolute Surprises(b)Avg 4Q,Std Dev Surprises(a)Avg 4Q,since,Reported Total%of Cos Posit
6、ive Negative In-Line,Positive,Negative Surprise,Positive Negative Surprise,30-Nov-12(NTM),Consumer DiscretionaryConsumer StaplesInformation TechnologyFinancialsHealth CareIndustrialsMaterialsEnergyTelecom ServicesUtilitiesS&P 500,1583531172210630147,8342708053603043831500,18%1950393237331438029%,53%
7、50493524231000NM34%,13%25111918181033100NM18%,33%254045595980670NM48%,80%757455715560330NM63%,20%25173224364067100NM30%,8%2121209(5)(16)NM4%,40%3837NM41184033100NM36%,27%2520NM12271000NM19%,0%10NM0(0)114NM1%,7.7%4.810.711.48.99.910.08.32.23.58.7%,15.716.814.914.516.015.815.817.315.515.315.7,S&P 500
8、ex.Financials,116,420,28%,34%,18%,48%,66%,29%,5%,8.2%,15.9,Comparative Data(full earnings season),3Q 20122Q 20121Q 20124Q 2011,499500498498,500500500500,100%100100100,42%364229,15%131313,42%504457,63%646760,28%282430,6%463,16%183726,34%361220,(1)%(0)21,S&P 500 CAP-WEIGHTED,EARNINGS,REVENUE,Return,We
9、ight of Companies,Std Dev Surprises(a),Absolute Surprises(b)Avg 4Q,Std Dev Surprises(a)Avg 4Q,since,Reported Total%of Cos Positive Negative In-Line,Positive,Negative Surprise,Positive Negative Surprise,30-Nov-12(NTM),Consumer StaplesConsumer DiscretionaryFinancialsIndustrialsInformation TechnologyMa
10、terialsHealth CareEnergyTelecom ServicesUtilitiesS&P 500,3296132523043,11121610184121133100,25%1956556850411386043%,75%61504038231700NM37%,12%72610231215100NM16%,13%322450607571850NM46%,88%916070727181220NM66%,12%9321914291478100NM26%,5%6(4)13232(3)(15)NM1%,75%21NM159374269100NM32%,12%28NM2071300NM9
11、%,1%0NM1(0)3122NM1%,2.6%6.711.19.01.28.76.37.30.23.35.9%,16.116.311.914.112.214.113.711.817.914.813.5,S&P 500 ex.Financials,34,84,40%,34%,14%,52%,68%,24%,2%,4.9%,13.8,(a)Result for each company relative to the standard deviation of consensus estimates two weeks prior to reporting date.(b)Result for
12、each company relative to the average consensus estimates two weeks prior to reporting date.Source:Compustat,FirstCall,Bloomberg,I/B/E/S,and Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.,Exhibit 2:Result matrix(ex.Financials and Utilities),Exhibit 3:Positive EPS surprises during earnings season,116 Stocks,Earni
13、ngs SurprisePositive Inline Negative,Total,POSITIVE EARNINGSSURPRISES,PositiveInline,15%16%,16%24%,5%4%,36%45%,4540,averageLast 4 quarters,35,3Q 2012,NegativeTotal,3%34%,8%48%,9%18%,19%,3025,4Q 2012,0,10,20,30,40,50,60,70,Number of Days into Earnings Season,Source:FirstCall,Bloomberg,I/B/E/S,and GS
14、Global ECS Research.高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究,Source:FirstCall,Bloomberg,I/B/E/S,and GS Global ECS Research.,PositiveSurprises,(%oftotal),PositiveSurprises,(%oftotal),1998,2000,2002,2004,2006,2008,2010,2012,2014,1998,2000,2002,2004,2006,2008,2010,2012,2014,60,55,75,3,2013 年 1 月 26 日,美国,S&P 500 4Q EPS tracking
15、6%lower on pension chargesUsing a mix of realized and consensus earnings,4Q EPS is tracking 6%below theconsensus estimate at the start of reporting season,$24.03 vs.$25.51.Accounting and definition differences have lowered index-level results.Resultscomparable to consensus analyst estimates may diff
16、er from the Standard&Poors definition dueboth to accounting differences and definitions of earnings from operations.These differences areusually small,but pension charges had a significant impact in 4Q.,Exhibit 4:Division of 4Q EPS changesas of January 24,2013$30,Exhibit 5:4Q EPS is tracking 6%below
17、 season startas of January 24,2013Change,$25$20$15,$25.51Estimate$14.36,$24.03Yet toReport$14.33,S&P 500 EPSReportedSurprise,Jan 4 Jan 24$25.51$24.0311.15 9.70,Points$(1.48)(1.45)0.02,%(5.8)%(13.0),$10$5,Estimate$11.15,Reported$9.70,Accounting/DefinitionRevision 14.36,14.33,(1.47)(0.03),(0.2),$0,Jan
18、 4,Jan 24,Consensus analyst estimates may differ from the Standard&Poors definitiondue both to accounting differences and definitions of earnings from operations.,Source:Compustat,FirstCall,I/B/E/S,and GS Global ECS Research.,Source:Compustat,FirstCall,I/B/E/S,and GS Global ECS Research.,Positive ea
19、rnings surprises are tracking below average this quarter(34%vs.42%).The percentage of firms missing earnings estimates by one standard deviation or more is abovethe 40 quarter average(18%vs.14%).36%of firms beat consensus sales expectations by more than one standard deviation,below the 10-year histo
20、rical average of 38%.In addition,19%of firms have missed salesestimates by that magnitude(versus 18%historically).,Exhibit 6:EARNINGS beats over timeas of January 25,2013POSITIVE EARNINGSSURPRISES504540,Exhibit 7:SALES beats over timeas of January 25,2013POSITIVE REVENUESURPRISES50,4Q 2012,35,10 Yea
21、rAverage,25,10 YearAverage,4Q 201230,25Source:Compustat,FirstCall,and Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究,0Source:Compustat,FirstCall,and Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.,7,4,2013 年 1 月 26 日,美国,Telecom Services pension charges lower S&P 500 EPSThe Telecom Services sector is expected t
22、o post a loss following large pensioncharges.Verizons(VZ)$7.2 billion of pre-tax pension and severance charges and AT&Ts(T)$10 billion pre-tax pension charge are both considered part of operating earnings.The after-taximpact of these charges reduced index-level EPS by about$1.22 and represents the m
23、ajority ofindex-level earnings decline.Exhibit 8:Telecom pension charges lower S&P 500 4Q 2012 EPSas of January 24,2013S&P 500 EPS Change,%of EPSReported,Accounting/Reported Surprise Definition,Info TechMaterialsConsumer DiscretionaryConsumer StaplesHealth CareEnergyFinancialsIndustrialsTelecom Serv
24、icesUtilitiesS&P 500,72%4416943645290040%,$0.020.010.010.000.00(0.02)(0.09)(0.09)(1.30)NM$(1.45),$0.160.01(0.01)0.01(0.00)(0.01)(0.07)0.00(0.08)NM$0.02,$(0.14)0.000.02(0.01)0.00(0.01)(0.02)(0.09)(1.22)NM$(1.47),Source:Compustat,I/B/E/S,FirstCall,and Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.Exhibit 9:Realiz
25、ed and consensus bottom-up estimates for 4Q 2012 earnings seasonas of January 24,20134QE 2012 Realized and Bottom-up Consensus,EPS,Sales,Margin,$/Share Growth,$/Share Growth,Level,Change,MaterialsEnergyConsumer DiscretionaryFinancialsHealth CareUtilitiesInfo TechConsumer StaplesIndustrialsTelecom Se
26、rvices,$0.643.292.664.272.990.675.622.422.36(0.88),65%11999940(6)(338),$114439NM33NM3238309,9%47NM1NM51(3)4,6.1%7.46.9NM9.0NM17.46.37.8(9.8),207 bp4413NM65NM(24)(0)(21)(1407),S&P 500,$24.03,1%,ex.Financials and UtilitiesApple(AAPL),19.09$1.47,(1)2%,$237$6,3%19%,8.1%24.0%,(30)bp(410)bp,Excluding Appl
27、e,S&P 500,$22.56,1%,ex.Financials and UtilitiesInfo Tech,17.624.15,(1)5,$23126,3%3,7.6%15.9,(27)bp32,Source:Compustat,I/B/E/S,FirstCall,and Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究,4,3,2,1,1,0,0,5,2013 年 1 月 26 日,美国,Managements guiding below consensus,but no more than usualManagements are lo
28、wering guidance.30 companies with fiscal-year ends betweenNovember and January provided full-year 2013 guidance following their 4Q earningsannouncements.The median company provided guidance 1%below consensus expectations.Companies typically guide below consensus expectations.73%of firms have guidedb
29、elow consensus expectations,but this is slightly more than history(65%).Over the 4Q reportseason,we expect 150-200 companies with fiscal-year ends between November and January willprovide full-year 2013 guidance.Management guidance indicates downside to 2013 EPS.Bottom-up consensus full-year2013 est
30、imates are down 1%since the start of earnings season.Consensus forecasts S&P 500EPS of$112 in 2013 implying 15%growth versus full-year 2012.Exhibit 10:Recent 2013 guidanceas of January 24,2013,Average,Midpoint of,Guidance,Consensus,guidance vs.,NameLockheed MartinE.I.DuPontSt.Jude MedicalAbbott Labo
31、ratoriesXerox Corp.Stryker Corp.eBay Inc.Total System Services3M Co.Amgen Inc.Dover Corp.Amphenol Corp.Celgene Corp.Bristol-Myers SquibbUnited TechnologiesSLM Corp.Textron Inc.,TickerLMTDDSTJABTXRXSYKEBAYTSSMMMAMGNDOVAPHCELGBMYUTXSLMTXT,SectorIndustrialsMaterialsHealth CareHealth CareInformation Tec
32、hnologyHealth CareInformation TechnologyInformation TechnologyIndustrialsHealth CareIndustrialsInformation TechnologyHealth CareHealth CareIndustrialsFinancialsIndustrials,Date24-Jan22-Jan23-Jan23-Jan24-Jan24-Jan17-Jan23-Jan24-Jan24-Jan24-Jan17-Jan24-Jan24-Jan23-Jan17-Jan23-Jan,EPS8.80-9.103.85-4.05
33、3.68-3.731.98-2.041.09-1.154.25-4.402.70-2.751.43-1.456.70-6.956.85-7.155.05-5.353.72-3.845.50-5.601.78-1.885.85-6.152.30-2.302.10-2.30,at date8.233.813.611.961.114.302.721.446.837.005.213.795.561.846.062.332.25,consensus9%(0)(0)(0)(0)(0)(0)(1)(1)(2),W.W.Grainger,GWW,Industrials,24-Jan 10.85-12.00,1
34、1.75,(3),Johnson&JohnsonUnitedHealth GroupPraxair Inc.Baxter IntlStanley Black&DeckerRaytheon Co.McCormick&Co.Carnival Corp.Quest DiagnosticsGeneral DynamicsAdobe SystemsCrown Castle Intl,JNJUNHPXBAXSWKRTNMKCCCLDGXGDADBECCI,Health CareHealth CareMaterialsHealth CareIndustrialsIndustrialsConsumer Sta
35、plesConsumer DiscretionaryHealth CareIndustrialsInformation TechnologyTelecommunication Services,22-Jan17-Jan23-Jan24-Jan24-Jan24-Jan24-Jan20-Dec23-Jan23-Jan14-Dec24-Jan,5.30-5.405.25-5.505.85-6.104.60-4.705.40-5.655.16-5.313.15-3.232.20-2.404.35-4.556.60-6.701.40-1.400.20-0.54,5.505.546.164.825.735
36、.473.372.474.807.332.360.86,(3)(3)(3)(3)(4)(4)(5)(7)(7)(9)(41)(57),Source:Factset,FirstCall and Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究,Sales,Sales,6,2013 年 1 月 26 日,美国,How the market is trading earningsSo far,17%of reported S&P 500 companies positively surprised on both sales andEPS.This i
37、s more frequent than last season.In 3Q,11%of stocks positively surprised on bothmetrics.The median stock positively surprising on both earnings and sales outperformed the S&P500 by 233 bp on the next trading day,in-line with 245 bp of outperformance last quarter.The market was more likely to reward
38、positive surprises last quarter.This season,56%of stocks that positively surprised on sales or earnings without missing on the other metricoutperformed the market on the next trading day.In the 3Q 2012 reporting season,68%of stocksoutperformed.The median stock positively surprising on sales or earni
39、ngs without missing on theother metric outperformed the S&P 500 by 107 bp on the next trading day versus 169 bp ofoutperformance last quarter.Underperformance following a miss is greater this quarter.66%of stocks that missed onat least one metric underperformed the market on the next trading day ver
40、sus 70%last quarter.The median stock that missed on sales or earnings underperformed the S&P 500 by 237 bp onthe next trading day versus 166 bp of underperformance last quarter.,Exhibit 11:Trading day performance following resultsas of January 24,2013Median outperformance versus S&P 500,Exhibit 12:H
41、it rate of outperformance 1 day post-reportas of January 24,2013Hit rate of outperformance,133 StocksBeatIn-LineMissTotal,Beat233 bp72898,EarningsIn-Line50 bp(42)(95)(16),Miss(6)bp(231)(373)(175),Total99 bp(42)(175)(28),133 StocksBeatIn-LineMissTotal,Beat64%50%67%58%,EarningsIn-Line55%48%44%50%,Miss
42、50%38%25%35%,Total58%48%38%50%,Source:IDC,FirstCall,I/B/E/S,and Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.,Source:IDC,FirstCall,I/B/E/S,and Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.,Despite mixed earnings,the market continues to rally.S&P 500 has risen by 7%sinceresolution of fiscal cliff concerns at the end of De
43、cember,and returned 3%since the beginning ofearnings season,rising on all but two days over that period.Cyclicals have led the rally,with theIndustrials,Energy,and Consumer Discretionary sectors returning 4%while the defensive Utilitiesand Telecom sectors have returned 2%and-1%,respectively.The only
44、 other sector with anegative return has been Info Tech(-0.2%),as disappointments from Apple and Intel outweighedpositive results from Microsoft and Google.高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究,PM,D,7,2013 年 1 月 26 日,美国,Upcoming earnings reports57%of S&P 500 market cap has yet to announce 4Q earnings.Next week,24%of equity
45、cap,109 companies,is set to report.The majority of the Energy sector will report,along with over30%of the Health Care,Utilities,and Materials sectors.Full calendar of next weeks reports appears every Friday in our US Weekly Kickstart.,Exhibit 13:Reports by sector for week of January 28as of January
46、25,2013Week of January 28,2013,Exhibit 14:Remaining reports for 4Q 2012 seasonas of January 25,2013Whats left in 4Q 2012,Companies,%Co,%Cap,Companies,%Co,%Cap,S&P 500,109,22%,24%,S&P 500,353,71%,57%,%of sector,%of sector,EnergyHealth CareUtilitiesMaterialsIndustrialsConsumer DiscretionaryInformation
47、 TechnologyConsumer StaplesFinancialsTelecom Services,14126111913126150,33%24193732161714190,64%3432302718131190,UtilitiesEnergyConsumer DiscretionaryConsumer StaplesHealth CareMaterialsIndustrialsFinancialsInformation TechnologyTelecom Services,3137683434203849355,100%868281676763615063,100%8781755
48、85045443214,Source:FirstCall,Bloomberg,I/B/E/S,and GS Global ECS Research.,Source:FirstCall,Bloomberg,I/B/E/S,and GS Global ECS Research.,Exhibit 15:Expected report dates and times for selected stocks reporting next weekas of January 25,2013Monday,January 28,2013,Caterpillar,CAT,Industrials,AM,Tuesd
49、ay,January 29,2013,NextEra Energy IncPfizer Inc.,NEEPFE,UtilitiesHealth Care,AMAM,A,AMZN,Consumer Discretionary PM,Wednesday,January 30,2013,Southern Co.ConocoPhillips,SOCOP,UtilitiesEnergy,AMPM,QUALCOMM Inc.Thursday,January 31,2013,QCOM Info Tech,Dow ChemicalAltria GroupDominion ResourcesOccidental
50、 Petroleum,DOWMOOXY,MaterialsConsumer StaplesUtilitiesEnergy,AMAM,Friday,February 1,2013,Merck&Co IncExxon Mobil Corp.,MRKXOM,Health CareEnergy,AMAM,Source:Compustat,FirstCall,Bloomberg,I/B/E/S,and Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究,8,2013 年 1 月 26 日,美国,信息披露附录分析师申明我们，Amanda Sneider,CFA
