《美国和全球IT市场展望.ppt》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《美国和全球IT市场展望.ppt（43页珍藏版）》请在三一办公上搜索。
1、TeleconferenceQ4 2010 US And Global IT Market Outlook For 2010-2012,Andrew H.Bartels,Vice President,Principal Analyst,December 16,2010.Call in at 12:55 p.m.Eastern time,We remain relatively positive on the IT market outlook despite questions about the economic outlook.We now forecast 7.5%growth for
2、the US IT market in 2011 and 6.9%in dollars for the global IT market.,Source:October 15,2010,“US And Global IT Market Outlook:Q3 2010”Forrester report and July 21,2010,“USAnd Global IT Market Outlook:Q2 2010”Forrester report,Forrester forecasts for global and US IT purchases(Percentage change from p
3、rior year in US dollars),The 2011 IT market outlook is still positive and in line with our earlier forecasts,Our 2011 IT market forecast is more optimistic than our competitors,The global IT market will grow by 7.1%in 2011!,Gartner:3.1%growthin 2011,Forrester current forecasts for global and US IT p
4、urchases in 2011(Percentage change from prior year in US dollars),Software and IT services lead US IT market growth;computer equipment and services head up global,Three factors drive our IT market forecast,Economic conditions Growth in nominal GDP,business profits,productivity trends,and presence or
5、 absence of recessionTechnology cycles Tech innovation and growth cycle versus tech digestion cycleFor global forecast,exchange rates Value of US dollar versus euro,yen,and other major currencies,US$billions,5.6%,9.4%,$601,8.2%,7.5%,$658,$501,$529,$555,$517,$559,4.8%,-6.7%,US IT purchases will rise
6、by 7.5%in 2011,*Forrester forecastSource:US Department of Commerce for 2004 to 2009 for computers and peripherals,communications equipment,and software;Forrester Research for these items in 2010 to 2012 and for IT consulting and outsourcing services in 2004 to 2012,US$billions,5.7%,7.7%,$957,5.6%,6.
7、3%,$749,$792,$828,$792,$837,$889,4.5%,-4.2%,Factoring in telecommunications,US ICT purchases will rise by 6.3%in 2011,*Forrester forecast Source:US Department of Commerce for 2004 to 2009 for computers and peripherals,communications equipment,and software;Forrester Research for these items in 2010 t
8、o 2012 and for IT consulting and outsourcing services in 2004 to 2012,Revival in almost all categories of US ICT purchases except telecom in 2011 and 2012,2010,2011,and 2012 US ICT purchases forecast(Percentage change in US dollars),*Forrester forecastSource:US Department of Commerce for 2004 to 200
9、9 for computers and peripherals,communications equipment,and software;Forrester Research for these items in 2010 to 2012 and for IT consulting and outsourcing services in 2004 to 2012,Forecast,Percentage change from prior year,The 2008 to 2009 recession and financial crisis caused tech investment to
10、 drop sharply in 2009.,US tech investment growth in 2011 will outpace the upturn in nominal GDP growth,*Forrester assumptions,US real GDP and GDP deflator(Percentage change from prior quarter at annualized rate),Seven-quarter recession period,The pace of US economic growth slowed to 2.5%for real GDP
11、 in Q3,with weak growth ahead,Recession,US business investment in IT products(Percentage change from prior year),Government data showed strong growth in US investment in IT in first three quarters of 2010,*Forrester forecast,Recession,Large-vendor US revenues are growing by around 10%in 2010,but the
12、y see growth slowing to 5%to 8%in 2011,US revenues of largest IT vendors(Percentage change from prior year),*Forrester forecast,*Weighted average of growth rates for computer equipment,communications equipment,and software,with weights based on these products share of total IT investment in the US D
13、epartment of Commerce data,Source:Based on 2009 to Q3 2010 quarterly financial reports of 45 large,global currently active IT vendors,US ICT purchases by major industry,2009 to 2012,$783,$762,$859,US$billions,*Forrester forecast,$804,Growth in US ICT purchases by industry,2010 to 2011,Growth from pr
14、ior year,*Forrester forecast,SaaS will grow its share of the software market but unevenly,with some software categories resistant,Share of total global software market for software products with different rates of SaaS adoption,US$billions,*Forrester forecast,7.8%,10.5%,7.1%,8.7%,$1,356,$1,498,$1,61
15、3,$1,473,$1,579,$1,838,-8.7%,7.2%,The global IT market in 2011 will recover all the ground lost in 2009,$1,690,Global growth in high single digits in all categories in 2011 and 2012,2010,2011,and 2012 global IT purchases forecast(Percentage change in US dollars),*Forrester forecast,The dollar is up
16、and down against the euro and pound and down against Asian and Americas currencies,Foreign currency per US dollar(Q1 2008=100),*Forrester forecast,as of December 7,2010 Source:Based on quarterly average exchange rates from OANDA,Business and government purchases of IT goods and services(Percentage c
17、hange from prior year in local currencies),Most regions will see slowing local currency growth in 2011,with Latin American and EEMEA accelerating,*Forrester forecast,Business and government purchases of IT goods and services(Percentage change from prior year in US dollars),In US dollars,regions will
18、 grow between 5%and 10%in 2011,*Forrester forecast,US$billions,*Forrester forecast,The Asia Pacific IT market is now bigger than Europe,7.8%,10.5%,7.1%,8.7%,$1,356,$1,498,$1,613,$1,473,$1,579,$1,838,-8.7%,7.2%,$1,690,US$billions,*Forrester forecast,The Tech Twelve are largest and most advanced IT ma
19、rkets,7.8%,10.5%,7.1%,8.7%,$1,356,$1,498,$1,613,$1,473,$1,579,$1,838,-8.7%,7.2%,$1,690,Canadian$billions,*Forrester forecast,3.6%,3.0%,5.8%,7.8%,$50,$52,$54,$52,$55,$62,-3.6%,5.6%,The Canadian IT market in C$will grow by 5.8%in 2011,7.8%in 2012,$58,IT outsourcing will be the fastest-growing IT categ
20、ory in Canada in 2011,with software as the pace setter in 2012,2010,2011,and 2012 Canadian IT purchases forecast(Percentage change in Canadian dollars),*Forrester forecast,Canadian$billions,*Forrester forecast,3.6%,3.0%,5.8%,7.8%,$50,$52,$54,$52,$55,$62,-3.6%,5.6%,The Canadian government IT market w
21、ill show little or no growth,with business IT market expanding more,$58,The different role of government purchases in Canada versus US IT markets,In Canada,government purchases stayed high in recession,dampening the decline,but are now falling;in the US,government IT purchases fell with recession bu
22、t will lag recovery in 2011 and 2012,US government and business IT purchases(percentage change in US dollars),Canada government and business IT purchases(percentage change in Canadian dollars),*Forrester forecast,Source:Based on data for US from US Department of Commerce and for Canada from Statisti
23、cs Canada,Exchange-rate adjusted US$billions,*Forrester forecast,12%,10%,12.4%,15%,$69,$76,$85,$79,$85,$110,-7%,8%,Latin America IT market in local currencies by 12%in 2011 and 15%in 2012,$96,Computer equipment,software,and IT outsourcing will be the fastest-growing Latin America IT categories,2010,
24、2011,and 2012 Latin American IT purchases forecast(Percentage change in exchange-rate adjusted US dollars),*Forrester forecast,Latin American country economic and IT market growth,Except for Venezuela,Latin American countries are recovering quickly from 2009 recession,with IT purchases growing faste
25、r in 2011,Latin American real GDP(percentage change in local currencies),Latin American country IT purchases(percentage change in local currencies),*Forrester forecast,Euros billions,*Forrester forecast,-0.9%,5.0%,5.9%,7.3%,291,305,302,278,289,329,-8.2%,4.1%,The European IT market will not return to
26、 2007 levels until 2011,306,Moderate growth in all IT categories in Western and Central Europe,2010,2011,and 2012 Western and Central Europe IT purchases forecast(Percentage change in euros),*Forrester forecast,Euros billions,*Forrester forecast,Germany,UK,France,and Scandinavia are the largest Euro
27、pean markets,-0.9%,5.0%,5.9%,7.3%,291,305,302,278,289,329,-8.2%,4.1%,306,European country economic and IT market growth,Northern European countries will outperform southern European countries,both in GDP and in IT purchases,European country real GDP(percentage change in euros),European country IT pu
28、rchases(percentage change in euros),*Forrester forecast,Exchange-rate adjusted US$billions,*Forrester forecast,16%,15%,12%,12%,$58,$67,$78,$71,$76,$96,-8%,7%,Eastern Europe,the Middle East,and Africa(EEMEA)IT market will rise by 12%in 2011 and 2012,$86,All categories except consulting services growi
29、ng at double-digit rates in 2011 and 2012 in EEMEA,2010,2011,and 2012 Eastern Europe/Middle East/Africa IT purchases forecast(Percentage change in exchange-rate adjusted US dollars),*Forrester forecast,EEMEA country economic and IT market growth,Energy and natural resource expansion and inflation dr
30、ive IT purchase growth higher than real economic growth,EEMEA real GDP(percentage change in local currencies),EEMEA country IT purchases(percentage change in local currencies),*Forrester forecast,Exchange-rate adjusted US$billions,*Forrester forecast,6%,7%,8%,9%,$283,$302,$320,$313,$335,$391,-2%,7%,
31、Asia Pacific IT market in local currencies will rise by 8%in 2011 and 9%in 2012,$360,Software and IT services are the fastest-growing IT categories in Asia Pacific,2010,2011,and 2012 Asia Pacific IT purchases forecast(Percentage change in exchange-rate adjusted US dollars),*Forrester forecast,Exchan
32、ge-rate-adjusted US$billions,*Forrester forecast,China has now become the largest Asia Pacific market,pushing Japan into second place,6%,7%,8%,9%,$283,$302,$320,$313,$335,$391,-2%,7%,$360,Asia Pacific country economic and IT market growth,Asia Pacific countries except for Japan are booming,both in G
33、DP and in IT purchases,Asia Pacific country real GDP(percentage change in local currencies),Asia Pacific country IT purchases(percentage change in local currencies),*Forrester forecast,Recommendations,For computer equipment vendors,the best growth has already occurred.For communications equipment ve
34、ndors,the enterprise market for unified communications and videoconferencing presents the best opportunity.For software vendors,2011 and 2012 will be period of strong growth.For IT services vendors,IT consulting and SI project work will rise,but IT outsourcing will lag.Focus on the Tech Twelve count
35、ries for leading-edge technologies like Smart Computing solutions and software and IT services.BRICs and other emerging markets will be best for hardware and outsourcing.Europe and Japan will lag the rest of the markets.,Vendors should expect solid IT market growth in 2011 and stronger growth in 2012.,Thank you,Andrew H.Bartels+1,
