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1、,2011 International Monetary FundNovember 2,2001January 29,2001,November 2011IMF Country Report No.11/321January 29,2001 January 29,2001January 29,2001,Peoples Republic of China:Financial System Stability AssessmentThis financial sector stability assessment on the Peoples Republic of China was prepa
2、red by a staffteam of the International Monetary Fund as background documentation for the periodic consultationwith the member country.It is based on the information available at the time it was completed onJune 24,2011.The views expressed in this document are those of the staff team and do notneces
3、sarily reflect the views of the government of the Peoples Republic of China or the ExecutiveBoard of the IMF.The policy of publication of staff reports and other documents by the IMF allows for the deletion ofmarket-sensitive information.Copies of this report are available to the public fromInternat
4、ional Monetary Fund Publication Services700 19th Street,N.W.Washington,D.C.20431Telephone:(202)623-7430 Telefax:(202)623-7201E-mail:publicationsimf.org Internet:http:/www.imf.orgInternational Monetary FundWashington,D.C.,INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND,PEOPLES REPUBLIC OF CHINA,Financial System Stabilit
5、y Assessment,Prepared by the Monetary and Capital Markets and Asia and Pacific Departments,Approved by Jos Vials and Anoop Singh,June 24,2011,This report is based on the IMF/World Bank Financial Sector Assessment Program(FSAP)exercise for Chinaundertaken during JuneDecember 2010.The assessment concl
6、uded that reforms have progressed well in moving to amore commercially-oriented financial system.Despite success and rapid growth,Chinas financial sector is confrontingseveral near-term risks,structural challenges,and policy-induced distortions.The main sources of risks are:(i)the effectsof a rapid
7、crisis-related credit expansion on credit quality,(ii)growing off-balance sheet exposures and disintermediation,(iii)a reversal in rapidly rising real estate prices,and(iv)an increase in imbalances due to the current economic growthpattern.Medium-term vulnerabilitiesthe relatively inflexible macroec
8、onomic policy framework,and the governmentsimportant role in credit allocation and in the financial sector at the central and provincial levelsare building upcontingent liabilities and could impair the needed reorientation of the financial system to support Chinas future growth.,A properly composed
9、and timely implemented set of reforms would help address these challenges.This will requirefurther progress in multiple areas,including(i)deepening the commercial orientation of banks and other financial firms;(ii)moving to more market-based means of influencing monetary and financial conditions;(ii
10、i)continued strengthening ofthe capacity of the central bank on financial stability issues,and that of the supervisory commissions;(iv)furtherdevelopment of financial markets and instruments to deepen and strengthen Chinas financial system;and(v)upgradingthe framework for financial stability,crisis
11、management,and resolution arrangement.Moving along this path,however,will pose additional risks and new situations.Hence,priority must be given to establishing the institutional and operationalpreconditions that are crucial to successfully managing a wide-ranging financial reform agenda,and the inte
12、nt outlined in,the latest 12th Five-Year Plan.,The FSAP team comprised Jonathan Fiechter(IMF,Mission Co-Chief),Thomas A.Rose(World Bank,Mission Co-Chief),Udaibir S.Das(Deputy Mission Chief,IMF),Mario Guadamillas(Deputy Mission Chief,World Bank),Csar Arias,Martin ihk,Silvia Iorgova,Yinqiu Lu,Aditya N
13、arain,Nathan Porter,Shaun Roache,Tao Sun,Murtaza Syed(all IMF);Massimo Cirasino,Patrick Conroy,Asli Demirg-Kunt,Catiana Garcia-Kilroy,Haocong Ren,Heinz Rudolph,Jun Wang,Ying Wang,Luan Zhao(all World Bank);Nuno Cassola,Henning Gbel,Keith Hall,Nick Le Pan,Greg Tanzer,Nancy Wentzler,Rodney Lester,and W
14、alter Yao(all experts).The team met senior officialsand staff from relevant government agencies,as well as representatives from financial institutions,industry organizations,and private sector representatives in Beijing,Chongqing,Nanchang,Ningbo,Shanghai,and Shenzhen.,Subsequent to the FSAP mission,
15、the authorities have begun to move on the various FSAP recommendations,and haveasked for technical cooperation in several areas relating to the existing financial stability framework.,The main authors of this report are Udaibir S.Das,Martin ihk,and Yinqiu Lu with contributions from the FSAP team.,FS
16、AP assessments are designed to assess the stability of the financial system as a whole and not that of individual institutions.They have been developed to help countries identify and remedy weaknesses in their financial sector structure,thereby enhancingtheir resilience to macroeconomic shocks and c
17、ross-border contagion.FSAP assessments do not cover risks that are specific toindividual institutions such as asset quality,operational or legal risks,or fraud.,2,Contents,Page,Glossary.5Executive Summary.7I.Overall Stability Assessment.15A.The Macro-Financial Environment.15B.Financial System:Struct
18、ure and Inter-linkages.19C.Banking System Performance,Soundness,and Resilience.25D.Stress-Testing Results Summary.29II.Managing Risks:Upgrading the Crisis Toolkit.36A.Financial Stability Framework.36B.Systemic Liquidity Management.36C.Crisis Management,Resolution,and Deposit Insurance.37D.Macro-Fina
19、ncial Framework.38III.Bolstering Financial Sector Oversight.39A.Commercial Bank Regulation and Supervision.41B.Securities Intermediaries and Securities Market Regulation.42C.Insurance Regulation and Supervision.43IV.Upgrading the Financial Infrastructure and Legal Framework.44A.Payment and Securitie
20、s Settlements Systems.44B.Legal and Regulatory Structure.44C.Market Integrity.45V.Broadening Financial Markets and Services.45A.Fixed Income Markets.45B.Equity Markets.47C.Insurance Sector.47D.Pension Sector.47E.Access to Finance.48VI.Sequencing Financial Reforms.48Tables1.Key Recommendations.112.Ri
21、sk Assessment Matrix.133.Financial Sector ReformsSelected Benchmarks.204.Structure of the Financial Sector,200710.215.Financial Development Indicators,200510.226.Selected Indicators of Financial Health,200510.277.Stress Tests for Banks.308.Financial System Architecture.40,3,9.Shadow Banking.4110.Leg
22、al and Regulatory Framework for Selected Financial Products.4411.InsuranceOperating Performance by Size,2009.47,Figures,1.Evolution of the Commercial Banking System.152.Scale of Retail Lending in Selected Banking Systems,2009.153.Growth of Mortgage Lending.154.Benchmark and Average Lending Rates.165
23、.Distribution of Lending Rates.166.Residential Housing Prices and Mortgage Lending.187.Bank Loans to the Real Estate Sector,Year-on-Year Changes.188.Share of Real Estate Sector Loans in Bank Loans.189.A Proxy for Loan-to-Value Ratio.1810.Credit Intermediation,2010.2311.Commercial Banking System Stru
24、cture by Assets,2010.2312.Fixed Income Markets in Selected Countries,2009.2313.RMB Deposits in Hong Kong SAR.2514.Market Capitalization of A,B,and H Shares.2515.Hong Kong SAR Market Premium for Chinese Equity.2516.Loan Growth Rates.2617.Levels and Incremental Growth of Bank Deposits.2618.Loans by Ma
25、turity.2619.Nonperforming Loans to Total Loans.2820.Depository Corporations Foreign Asset and Liability Positions.2821.Flow of Funds in the Interbank MarketRepos.2922.Flow of Funds in the Interbank MarketCall Loans.2923.Aggregate Credit Risk:Sensitivity Analysis.3124.Credit Concentration:Real Estate
26、 Sensitivity Analysis.3225.Change in CAR:Credit Concentration:Real Estate,Alternative Approach,March 2010.3326.Test for Banks Exposures to LGFPs,End-2009.3427.Interest Rate Risk:Banking Book,End-2009.3428.Interest Rate Risk:Trading Accounts,End-2009.3529.Direct Exchange Rate Risk,End-2009.3530.Macro
27、-scenario Results,End-2009.3531.Reliance on Real Estate Collateral in Bank Lending,2007.4332.Each Public Sector Debt Issuer Dominates in a Different Maturity Segment.4633.Sequencing Financial Reforms.4934.Stress Testing Exercise:Three Pillars.51,Box,1.Real Estate Sector and Banking Sector Soundness.
28、17,4,Appendix,I.Stress Testing.50,Appendix Tables,12.Macroeconomic Scenario Assumptions.5213.Recommendations for Improvements in Stress Testing.53,Annexes,I.Observance of Financial Sector Standards and CodesBasel Core,Principles for Effective Banking Supervision:A Summary.54,II.Observance of Financi
29、al Sector Standards and CodesIAIS Insurance,Core Principles:A Summary.74,III.Observance of Financial Sector Standards and CodesIOSCO,Objectives and Principles of Securities Regulation:A Summary.87,IV.Observance of Financial Sector Standards and CodesAssessmentsof Observance of CPSS Core Principles f
30、or Systemically Important,Payment Systems:A Summary.108,V.Observance of Financial Sector Standards and CodesAssessmentof Observance of CPSS-IOSCO Recommendatiions for Securities,Settlement Systems and Central Counterparties:A Summary.117,Annex Tables,14.Summary Compliance with the Basel Core Princip
31、les.6415.Recommended Action Plan to Improve Compliance with the,Basel Core Principles.6916.Summary of Observance of the Insurance Core Principles.7717.Recommended Action Plan to Improve Observance of the,Insurance Core Principles.8318.Summary of Implementation of the IOSCO PrinciplesROSCs.9519.Recom
32、mended Action Plan to Improve Implementation of,the IOSCO Principles.101,20.Recommended Actions to Improve Observance of CPSS Core Principles,and Central Bank Responsibilities in Applying the CPs China HVPS.111,21.Recommended Actions to Improve Observance of CPSS-IOSCO,RSSSOTC Bonds Market-CCDC.119,
33、22.Recommended Actions to Improve Observance of CPSS-IOSCO,RSSSStock Exchange(SSE,SZSE)SD&C.121,23.Recommended Actions to Improve Observance of CPSS-IOSCO,RCCPSHFE.123,BCP,IAIS,5GLOSSARY,ABCACHsAIAAMCsAML/CFTBEPSCARCBRCCCBCCDCCCPCDBCFACFETSCFFEXCIRCCISCNAPSCNPSCPACPSSCSDCSRCCUPDaPDCEFATFFHCsFoPFSAPG
34、EBHVPSHQIASBIBBMICBCICPIFRSIMF,Agricultural Bank of ChinaAutomated ClearinghousesInternational Assurance CompanyAsset Management CompaniesAnti-Money Laundering/Combating the Financing of TerrorismBasel Core Principles for Effective Banking SupervisionBulk Electronic Payment SystemCapital Adequacy Ra
35、tioChina Banking Regulatory CommissionChina Construction BankChina Central Depositary Trust&Clearing Co.,Ltd.Central CounterpartyChina Development BankChina Futures AssociationChina Foreign Exchange Trading SystemChina Financial Futures ExchangeChina Insurance Regulatory CommissionCollective Investm
36、ent SchemeChina National Advanced Payment SystemChina National Payment SystemChinas Certified Professional AccountantCommittee on Payment and Settlement SystemsCentral Securities DepositoryChina Securities Regulatory CommissionChina Union PayDelivery after PaymentDalian Commodity ExchangeFinancial A
37、ction Task ForceFinancial Holding CompaniesFree of PaymentFinancial Sector Assessment ProgramGrowth Enterprise BoardHigh Value Payment SystemHeadquartersInternational Association of Insurance SupervisorsInternational Accounting Standards BoardInterbank Bond MarketIndustrial Commercial Bank of ChinaI
38、nsurance Core PrinciplesInternational Financial Reporting StandardsInternational Monetary Fund,IT,MMOU,SD&C,6Information Technology,JSCBsKRILCBsLCPsLGFPMOFMOUMSENAONBFINDRCNPSNPLPaDPBCPICCP&CQDIIQFIIRCSARMBSAFESACSHFESIPFSIPSSMESOESROSSESSSSZSEZCE,Joint-Stock Commercial Banks(12 banks as of end-2010
39、)Key Risk IndicatorsLarge Commercial Banks(Top 5)Local Processing CentersLocal Government Financing PlatformMultilateral Memorandum of Understanding on Exchange of InformationMinistry of FinanceMemorandum of UnderstandingMicro and Small EnterpriseNational Audit OfficeNonbank Financial InstitutionNat
40、ional Development and Reform CommissionNational Payment SystemNonperforming LoanPayment after DeliveryPeoples Bank of ChinaPeoples Insurance Company of ChinaProperty and CasualtyQualified Domestic Institutional InvestorQualified Foreign Institutional InvestorRisk and Control Self AssessmentRenminbi(
41、yuan)State Administration of Foreign ExchangeSecurities Association of ChinaChina Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation LimitedShanghai Futures ExchangeSecurities Investment Protection FundSystemically Important Payment SystemSmall and Medium EnterpriseState-Owned EnterpriseSelf-Regulatory
42、OrganizationsShanghai Stock ExchangeSecurities Settlement SystemsShenzhen Stock ExchangeZhengzhou Commodity Exchange,1.,2.,3.,4.,5.,7,EXECUTIVE SUMMARY,China has made remarkable progress in its transition toward a more,commercially-oriented and financially sound system.Improvements continue to be ma
43、deto the structure,performance,transparency,and oversight of financial institutions andmarkets.As a result,the financial sector entered the global financial crisis from a position ofrelative strength.,Potential risks,Despite ongoing reform and financial strength,China confronts a steady build-up of
44、financial sector vulnerabilities.The system is becoming more complex and inter-linkages between markets,institutions,and across international borders are growing.Inaddition,informal credit markets,conglomerate structures,and off-balance sheet activitiesare on the rise.Furthermore,the current growth
45、model,the associated and relativelyinflexible macroeconomic policy framework,and the governments important role in creditallocation at the central and provincial levels are leading to a build-up of contingentliabilities.These could affect the needed reorientation toward domestic demand and newsector
46、s of growth.These vulnerabilities are not easily quantified,however,in part due tolimitations on monitoring,data collection,and inter-agency information exchange.,The main near-term domestic risks to the financial system are four-fold:(i)the,impact of the recent sharp credit expansion on banks asset
47、 quality;(ii)the rise of off-balancesheet exposures and of lending outside of the formal banking sector;(iii)the relatively highlevel of real estate prices;and(iv)the increase in imbalances due to the current economicgrowth pattern.,Jointly conducted stress tests of the largest 17 commercial banks i
48、ndicate that,most of the banks appear to be resilient to isolated shocks.Such shocks included a sharpdeterioration in asset quality,a correction in the real estate markets,shifts in the yield curve,and changes in the exchange rate.If several of these risks were to occur at the same time,however,the
49、banking system could be severely impacted.A full assessment of the extent ofthese risks and how they could permeate through the economic and financial system,however,was hindered by data gaps,the lack of sufficiently long and consistent time seriesof key financial data,weaknesses in the informationa
50、l infrastructure,and constraints on theFSAP teams access to confidential data.,Reforms to strengthen the monitoring and resolution of risks,Continued advances in supervision and regulation,and the financial stabilityframework,together with the upgrading of banks risk management systems arerequired t
