《ATK 2020 Industry at Crossroads澳洲食品行业分析（2020） .ppt》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《ATK 2020 Industry at Crossroads澳洲食品行业分析（2020） .ppt（88页珍藏版）》请在三一办公上搜索。
1、Australian Food and Grocery Council,2020:INDUSTRY AT A CROSSROADS,The 2020:Industry at Crossroads report was produced in November,2011 by the Australian Food and Grocery Council(AFGC)and A.T.Kearney Australia.,2011 Australian Food and Grocery Council and A.T.Kearney Australia Pty Ltd,The significant
2、 contribution of A.T.Kearney is gratefully acknowledged.,Editors,Brad Watts,Director Media and Corporate Affairs,AFGCIrvinder Goodhew,Vice President,A.T.KearneyJeremy Barker,Vice President,A.T.KearneyTerry Innerst,Vice President,A.T.KearneyVanessa Moore,Principal,A.T.KearneySonal Kalra,Business Anal
3、yst,A.T.Kearney,Project Advisors,Kate Carnell,Chief Executive,AFGC,Irvinder Goodhew,Vice President,A.T.KearneyJeremy Barker,Vice President,A.T.KearneyTerry Innerst,Vice President,A.T.Kearney,This report was compiled using information and data sourced from secondary data sources and from interviewswi
4、th almost 30 large,medium and small leading food and grocery manufacturers in Australia.These companiesincluded multi-national and wholly Australian-owned and operated companies as well as relevant industryassociations.AFGC would like to thank these companies and organisations for their contribution
5、s.,Disclaimer:Whilst every effort has been taken to verify the accuracy of this information,neither the AustralianFood and Grocery Council(AFGC)nor A.T.Kearney can accept any responsibility or liability for reliance by anyperson on this report or any of the information,opinions or conclusions set ou
6、t herein.,Chief Executives Foreword,Not many people realise Australias$108 billion food and grocery sector is the nationslargest manufacturing industry providing around 24 million nutritious,affordable meals to,Australians every day.,Fewer still would know that this vital sector employing more than
7、312,000 people,includinghalf in rural and regional areas is under intense pressure.,Without question,the food and grocery manufacturing industry is at a Critical Crossroads.,Industry is weathering a perfect storm from an extraordinary number of pressures right across the supply chain,including:,Risi
8、ng costs of wages,water and energy,The high Australian dollar making imported products cheaper,Near record high global commodity prices sugar,dairy,cocoa,oilseeds and wheat,Intense supermarket discounting in a range of products forcing down retail prices and seriously impacting,manufacturer margins
9、supermarkets expect manufacturers to accept no or very small price increases to,support their reduced prices,The rise in market share of private label products in the worlds second most concentrated retailer marketIncreasing Government regulation e.g.the proposed Blewett Labelling Review recommendat
10、ions could,force industry into expensive and multiple labelling changes.,Although industry supports a price on carbon,the timing of the Federal Governments carbon tax also delivers,another cost increase to Australian manufacturers that will not affect imported goods.It is estimated that thecarbon ta
11、x will decrease operating profit before income tax by 4.4%on average for food and grocerymanufacturers,but for some sectors of the industry(dairy,meat)the figure is as high as 11.6%.,All of these issues,combined with a very depressed retail market,are putting huge pressure on the profitability ofAus
12、tralian manufacturers which,in turn,puts jobs and future innovation at risk.,Weve already seen job cuts in the sector over recent months.Leading food and grocery manufacturers theeconomic lifeblood and social fabric of many regional towns are assessing how to maintain operations and,competitiveness
13、in the current environment.If companies have to downsize there are regularly flow-on implicationsfor the wider agrifoods and dependent farming sectors.,To illustrate these intense challenges,future trends and the urgent solutions needed,the Australian Food andGrocery Council(AFGC)commissioned A.T.Ke
14、arney to produce this 2020:Industry at a Crossroads report.,The industry-first,fact-based economic analysis highlights key trends as well as the longer-term impacts facing,food and grocery manufacturers.The report acutely highlights that our industrys competitiveness and future,sustainability is und
15、er threat,emphasising the urgent need to have a greater national policy focus to allow theindustry to continue to grow and employ.,Industry applauds the important work being done by Federal Agriculture Minister Senator Joe Ludwig on theNational Food Plan to ensure Australia has a thriving,innovative
16、 and profitable food and grocery manufacturingindustry providing a wide range of safe,nutritious,sustainable and affordable products now and into the future.,Federal Industry Minister Kim Carrs Food Processing Industry Innovation Strategy is also focused on ensuringAustralias food and grocery manufa
17、cturing industry continues to attract investment and build new capabilities.We,should leverage the fact that Australias economy is much healthier than most others in the world,we have a world-class regulatory system,we produce great primary produce at competitive prices and we are in close proximity
18、 tothe growing Asian market.Australia has the capacity to produce high quality,healthy,green food and groceries forAustralias growing population and to contribute to feeding the world.But this will not happen unless there iscommitment from government,industry and consumers.,I urge all political lead
19、ers both Federal and State to seriously consider this report and rethink their business-as-,usual approach towards the sector.They must consider what responsive national policy settings,investment,skillsand innovation support are needed to keep this essential industry healthy and robust to ensure fu
20、ture growth and,job creation.To do nothing is simply not an option now is the time for bold leadership and change!,Kate Carnell,AO,AFGC Chief Executive,AFGC,“One Voice,Adding Value”,The Australian Food and Grocery Council(AFGC)is Australias peak national industry association,representing the$108 bil
21、lion food,beverage and grocery manufacturing industry.,AFGCs aim is for the Australian food,beverage and grocery manufacturing industry to be world-class,sustainable,socially-responsible and competing profitably domestically and overseas.AFGC represents one ofthe few manufacturing sectors that conti
22、nue to grow and has significant potential for even further growth into thefuture.,We provide a strong,united voice for industry to Government,NGOs,retailers/trading partners,industry groupsand the media,as well as lead the charge for members in Canberra and in State and Territory Parliaments.AFGC is
23、 respected for advancing scientific policies and research to support industry positions.As part of our,advocacy role,we advance best practice policy,promote industrys views and make submissions to governments,on the development of policy and regulation impacting members.,We help members stay competi
24、tive and well-informed on important issues including retailer margins,food,regulation,labelling and sustainability issues.AFGC has been proudly representing the interests of Australias,largest manufacturing sector since 1995 and is dedicated to keeping the industry strong,innovative andprofitable.,F
25、or more information,visit www.afgc.org.au,A.T.Kearney,A.T.Kearney is a global management consulting firm that uses strategic insight,tailored solutions and acollaborative working style to help clients achieve sustainable results.Since 1926,we have been trustedadvisors on CEO-agenda issues to the wor
26、lds leading corporations across all major industries.A.T.Kearney has offices in major cities in 38 countries,including Sydney and Melbourne in Australia.,A.T.Kearney consults on a wide range of consumer and retail issues for national and global companies-ourcapabilities are in areas such as the foll
27、owing and more:,Growth&Channel StrategyRetail Operations,Manufacturing Operations&Complexity ReductionSupply Chain Strategy and OperationsProcurement Solutions,Organisation and TransformationStrategic Information Technology,For more information,visit.au,1,2,2.1,2.2,2.2.1,2.2.2,2.2.3,2.2.4,2.2.5,2.2.
28、6,2.3,2.4,3,3.1,3.1.1,3.1.2,3.1.3,3.1.4,3.2,3.2.1,3.2.2,3.2.3,3.2.4,3.2.5,3.2.6,3.2.7,4,4.1,4.2,4.3,5,6,A,B,Contents,Executive Summary.1Current Pressures and Challenges Facing the Industry.5Industry under Pressure.7Key Pressure Points and Challenges.13Changing Retail Landscape.13Rising Exchange Rate
29、s and Import Competition.23Rising Manufacturing Input Costs.25Rising Commodity Costs.28Increasing Transport Costs.30Summary of Key Pressures on the Industry.31Impact of Key Pressures on Food and Grocery Manufacturers in Australia.32Relative Cost Position of Australian Manufacturers Compared with Off
30、shore Alternatives.33Outlook for Industry Competitiveness.39Outlook for Key Pressures and Challenges Facing the Industry.39The Retail Environment.39The Exchange Rate.44The Manufacturing Labour Rate.44Energy Prices and Impact of the Carbon Pricing Mechanism.45Impact of Key Pressures on Future Industr
31、y Competitiveness.47Outlook for Industry Size and Growth.47Outlook for Industry Employment.51Outlook for Capital Investment and Implications.52Outlook for Research and Development and Implications.55Outlook by Product Category and Implications.58Outlook for Future Cost Position and Implications.59Im
32、plications at the Regional Level.65Implications for Dependant Sectors and the Broader Economy.67Implications for the Agriculture Sector.69Implications for Non-Agriculture Sectors.70Flow on Implications for Regional Towns.71Conclusions.74Appendix.79Glossary of Terms.79Detailed Industry Definition.80,
33、1 Executive Summary,Pressures and Challenges Facing the Industry Today,Over the last five years,the Australian food and grocery manufacturing industry has come underintense pressure from a confluence of forces and pressures across the value chain.These include ahighly concentrated retail market,a st
34、rong Australian dollar,labour scarcity pressures,escalatingenergy prices and high yet volatile commodity prices.As a result of these pressures,the industry hasgrown at a much slower rate(2.1 per cent per annum)than the demand for food and grocery items(3.8 per cent per annum)in Australia.,The gap be
35、tween locally-manufactured supply and demand is being filled by lower cost imports(which have on average a 25 per cent cost differential advantage)of both private label andbranded products(including through parallel importing).As a consequence,since 2008 Australia hasbecome a net importer of manufac
36、tured food and grocery products.,Industry employment has therefore declined as a share of the Australian workforce from3.2 per cent in 2005 to 2.8 per cent in 2010,a 10 per cent decline over that period.,The Outlook and Implications for Future Competitiveness,Looking forward,under a business as usua
37、l scenario without any policy framework reforms,the key,pressures facing industry are expected to continue unabated over the coming decade:,The retail environment is expected to remain as challenging,if not more challenging,forfood and grocery manufacturers over the coming decade,o The retail market
38、 is expected to remain highly concentrated,with Coles and Woolworths,forecast to have a combined supermarket share of over 80 per cent in many categorieso Private label is forecast to grow strongly and could potentially account for 40-50 per cent of,total supermarket sales by 2020,consistent with de
39、velopments in more mature markets.,The Australian dollar is expected to remain high against the currencies of its major tradingpartners,o The relative cost position of Australian manufacturers is forecast to remain significantly,higher than lowest cost regional competitors,with on average a 22 per c
40、ent cost differentialo Imports are forecast to continue to rise from$25 billion per annum to$47 billion by 2020,increasing the net trade deficit further.,Energy prices are expected to increase sharply in the next few years,o In real terms,energy prices are forecast to increase by 8 per cent between
41、2011 and 2012,and then 42 per cent between 2012 and 2013 in part due to the introduction of a carbon tax.From 2014,prices are forecast to increase more modestly at 1 per cent per annum(in realterms)through to 2020.,Labour scarcity pressures are expected to continue,o Nominal labour costs forecast to
42、 grow by3.6 per cent per annum.,Global commodity prices are expected to remain high and continue to experience highlevels of volatility,o This will maintain margin pressure for local food and grocery manufacturers as they struggle,to pass on rising input costs.,Given the outlook for industry,it is n
43、ot surprising that 55 per cent of surveyed food and grocerymanufacturers are negative about the future.,If nothing changes and there are no policy reforms,the industry is forecast to be significantly lesscompetitive in 2020 as a lack of growth translates into possible job losses and an inability to
44、reinvestin major plant upgrades and innovation.,1,Real industry turnover is forecast to decline by 0.2 per cent per annum over the coming decadefrom$108 billion in 2009 to between$105 billion and$106 billion in 2020.Over that same period realretail demand is forecast to grow at 3.7 per cent per annu
45、m with the growth gap being,increasingly filled by imports and retailers private label products.,As a consequence,the industry is forecast to shed 100,000 to 130,000 jobs to right size.Towns,in regional New South Wales,Victoria and Queensland are expected to be most impacted by anyemployment loss as
46、 these are the manufacturing hubs for the most highly exposed productcategories.,The most vulnerable product categories and(by implication food and grocery manufacturers)arethose that are highly trade exposed and/or are subject to high levels of retailer pressure and arealready exhibiting signs of m
47、arginal profitability.The product categories that are most highlyexposed include processed fruit and vegetable products,seafood processing,animal and bird feed,grain mill products,sanitary paper products,sugar,cleaning and personal care products,wine,cheese and dairy.,A less competitive industry wil
48、l also have flow on impacts on up-stream industries.A further 5,000 to6,000 jobs losses are forecast in upstream industries by 2020 if there are no policy reforms.The most,significant upstream impact is expected to be on highly exposed parts of the agriculture industry,(domestic market focused,provi
49、ding input to high risk product categories,with long planting cyclesand high switching costs)where between 940 and 1,100 job losses are forecast.,Given the challenges facing the industry and the implications for growth and profitability,it is highly,uncertain whether the industry as a whole has the
50、appetite to make the scale of investment required,in capital and innovation to maintain its competitiveness.,Should this scenario eventuate,Australia will see an acceleration of the fundamental shift to being amajor net importer of food and grocery items.This has significant longer term implications
