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1、,Credit,GlobalMarketsResearch,EmergingMarkets,Global15 October 2012,Emerging Market CorporatesWeekly Monitor:Flow&ValuationTop-picksOur top Buys and Sells in LatAm and CEEMEA,plus rationales and risks.Bond performance monitorsOut/underperformers wow,mom and YTD in LatAm,CEEMEA and combined.Z-Score t
2、rendsUpdate of z-score trend section,covering LatAm quasi-sovereign oil&gas.Weekly“Bargain Hunting”metrics for GEM corporates and banksOur Bargain Hunting Metrics monitors include corporate and banking bonds inLatAm and CEEMEA with the largest variations in prices and spreads over lastweek and a bal
3、ance sheet liquidity measure is provided as a filter.Fund flows summaryOn Oct 10,EMD funds overall finished the week with strong inflows of USD1.7bn,comparable to the levels observed in the week of QE3 announcement.The strongperformance was led by substantial additions to EM hard currency funds(USD9
4、67m),the second largest inflow in the last 8 monthsBonds issued during the weekA somewhat weaker(-24%wow)supply of new corporate paper was registeredlast week totalling USD7.05bn.Asia bounced back into the lead with USD3.78bnworth of priced deals,while LatAm and CEEMEA contributed USD1.8bn andUSD1.4
5、8bn to the pot with some sizeable re-taps in the mix.Summary financials and corporate“Cheat Sheet”for LatAm and CEEMEASummary financials in LatAm,featuring Cemex.In CEEMEA:Oschadny Bank andRussian Agricultural Bank.Bond chart monitorsYield vs.duration valuation filters by region and by sector.Figure
6、 1:LatAm and CEEMEA Weekly Out-/UnderperformersOutperformers Underperformers,Market UpdateResearch TeamDenis ParisienResearch Analyst(+1)212 250-Viacheslav Shilin,MBAResearch Analyst(+44)20 754-Tala BoulosResearch Analyst(+44)20 754-Natalia CorfieldResearch Analyst(+1)212 Jed EvansStrategist(+1)212
7、250-Gene CheonResearch Analyst(+65)Colin Tan,CFAResearch Analyst(+852)2203 Devinda ParanathanthriResearch Analyst(+65)Jacphanie CheungResearch Analyst(+852)2203,VALEBZ 6.875 39VALEBZ 6.875 36SANT 2.0551 16SCCO 6.75 40VALEBZ 5.625 42SCCO 7.5 35URBIMM 8.5 16VALEBZ 8.25 34PETB 6.875 40PETB 6.75 41URBIM
8、M 9.75 22URBIMM 9.5 20TELVIS 6.625 40RUSB 10.75 18 SubBRASKM 7.125 41CSNABZ 7.0 PerpCDEL 4.25 42CDEL 5.625 35CDEL 6.15 36OIBRBZ 5.75 22,3.92%3.91%3.68%3.58%3.43%3.23%3%2.99%2.95%2.72%2.7%2.69%2.64%2.64%2.56%2.46%2.34%2.33%2.3%2.19%,AEROAR 10.75 20AES_Dom 9.5 20BUENOS 11.75 15TRAGAS 7.875 17BMAAR 8.5
9、 17NEUQUE 7.875 21BUENOS 9.375 18BUENOS 10.875 21BUEAIR 12.5 15BUEAIR 9.95 17GALIAR 8.75 18PANAME 7.875 21IRSAAR 11.5 20BHIP 9.75 16IRSAAR 8.5 17BMAAR 9.75 36 SubMENDOZ 5.5 18GALIAR 9.0 17BANBRA 8.5 Perp SubEDNAR 9.75 22,-2.29%-2.29%-2.57%-2.69%-2.72%-2.84%-3.51%-3.58%-4.16%-4.73%-4.74%-5.13%-5.41%-
10、5.53%-5.71%-6%-6.05%-6.39%-7.11%-8.88%,Jack ZhangStrategist(+1)212 250-,Source:Deutsche BankDeutsche Bank Securities Inc.All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated.Prices are sourced from localexchanges via Reuters,Bloomberg and other vendors.D
11、ata is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies.DeutscheBank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports.Thus,investors should be aware that the firmmay have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors should consider thi
12、s report as only a singlefactor in making their investment decision.DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.MICA(P)072/04/2012.,15 October 2012Page 2,Emerging Market CorporatesTable of ContentsTop picks.3Our preferred Buy and Sell recommendations.3Rationale and risks to our
13、recommendations.6Bond Performance Monitors.10Z-Score trends.13Latam Quasi-Sovereign Oil&Gas.13Bargain Hunting Metrics.17How to read the Bargain Hunting filters.17EM Credit Market Flows and New Issuance.27Fund Flows.27Bonds issued during the week.28Summary Financials.29EM Earnings Calendar.31Recently
14、 Published Reports.32Cheat Sheet.33EM Bond Chart Monitors.38Latin America Monitors.38EMEA Monitors.45Monitors by Rating and Industry Categories.50Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.,15 October 2012,Emerging Market Corporates,Top picksOur preferred Buy and Sell recommendationsFigure 2:Summary of top-picks
15、High Grade,12-Oct-12,Ch.Price,Ch.Spread,Bond,Issuer Credit,IssuerBBVA Bamcomer,BBG TickerBBVASM,Bond RatingsBaa2/N.A./BBB-,Bond details7.25%20,$1000m,Mid-Price111.6,Spread414,Yield5.35,wow0.38,wow-0.31,Recomm.Buy,OutlookPositive,A3/N.A./BBBBaa2/N.A./BBB-A3/N.A./BBB,6.5%21,$1250m6.008%22,$500m6.75%22
16、,$1000m,113.0100.8112.5,325438356,4.615.905.13,1.19-0.500.85,-9.3915.44-1.71,BuyBuyBuy,China National Petroleum,CNPCCH,A1/A+/A+,3.125%16,$700m,104.6,124,1.8,0.37,-12.38,Buy,Stable,A1/A+/A+A1/A+/A+A1/A+/A+,2.75%17,$650m4.5%21,$650m3.95%22,$500m,104.0112.2108.5,113147132,1.82.92.9,0.251.081.00,-7.99-1
17、3.55-10.78,BuyBuyBuy,CNOOC Ltd,CNOOC,Aa3/AA-/A+,4.25%21,$1,500m,110.3,146,2.8,0.74,-9.75,Buy,Stable,Aa3/AA-/NR,3.875%22,$1,500m,107.4,136,3.0,1.17,-12.52,Buy,ENN EnergyDEWA,XINAOGDEWAAE,Baa3/BBB-/BBBBaa3/N.A./WD,6.00%21,$750m6.375%16,$500m,114.5111.2,267278,4.03.37,0.971.25,-12.22-31.89,BuyBuy,Stabl
18、eStable,Baa3/N.A./WD,7.375%20,$1500m,117.6,342,4.72,0.65,-3.00,Buy,DP WorldGaranti Bank,DPWDUGARAN,Baa3/NR/BBB-Baa2/N.A./BBB-,6.25%17,$1500m6.25%21,$500m,110.5111.0,308329,3.794.67,0.501.25,-10.23-10.02,BuyBuy,StableStable,Baa2/N.A./BBB-,5.25%22,$750m,102.9,328,4.87,1.19,-6.16,Buy,Odebrecht,ODBR,Baa
19、3/BBB-/BBB-,7%20,$500m,114.0,355,4.76,-0.50,12.79,Buy,Stable,Baa3/BBB-/BBB-,6%23,$800m,115.4,252,4.17,1.50,-7.42,Buy,Qatar TelecomReliance Industries,QTELQDRILIN,A2/A/A+Baa2/BBB/NR,7.875%19,$600m4.5%20,$1,000m,130.3103.9,179254,2.853.9,0.251.22,-0.09-16.22,BuyBuy,StableStable,Baa2/BBB/NRBaa2/BBB/NR,
20、5.4%22,$1,500m6.25%40,$500m,109.7112.4,262298,4.15.4,0.852.91,-9.51-10.16,BuyBuy,SinopecTAQA,SINOPETAQAUH,Aa3/A+/NRA3/A-/N.A.,3.9%22,$1,000m5.875%16,$1000m,108.1113.5,131175,2.92.34,0.400.25,-4.16-6.53,BuyBuy,StableStable,A3/A-/N.A.,6.25%19,$500m,119.1,203,3.16,0.75,-6.53,Buy,TNK-BP,TMENRU,Baa2/BBB-
21、/BBB-,6.625%17,$800m,115.1,229,2.95,0.75,-16.78,Buy,Stable,Source:Deutsche Bank.,Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.,Page 3,15 October 2012,Emerging Market Corporates,Figure 3:Summary of top-picks High-Yield,12-Oct-12,Ch.Price,Ch.Spread,Bond,Issuer Credit,IssuerAlfa-Bank,BBG TickerALFARU,Bond RatingsBa1/N
22、.A./BB+,Bond details7.875%17,$1000m,Mid-Price109.5,Spread489,Yield5.64,wow1.15,wow-24.64,Recomm.Buy,OutlookStable,Ba1/N.A./BB+,7.75%21,$1000m,109.5,494,6.29,1.75,-18.88,Buy,ATF BankAlliance BankBanco BMG,ATFBPALLIBKBCOBMG,B1/N.A./BBBCaa2/N.A./B-Ba3/N.A./N.A.,9.25%14,$297m10.5%17,$615m6.5%14,$300m,10
23、1.491.598.0,7791342768,8.1313.938.02,0.000.000.75,0.762.61-54.10,BuyBuyBuy,PositivePositiveStable,Ba3/B/N.A.Ba3/B/N.A.B1/N.A./CCCB1/N.A./CCC,9.15%16,$240m8%18,$300m9.95%19,$300m8.875%20,$250m,99.693.594.986.9,8969149931026,9.389.8311.0111.46,-0.130.130.63-0.75,9.85-1.45-8.4722.28,BuyBuyBuyBuy,Bicban
24、coEvrazFufeng GroupGajah TunggalHalyk Bank,BICEVRAZFUFENGGJTLIJHSBKKZ,Ba1/N.A./N.A.B1/B+/BB-eNR/BB/BBB3/NR/NRBa3/BB/BB-,8.5%20,$300m7.4%17,$600m7.625%16,$300m5%(step-up),$435m7.75%13,$270m,98.8105.694.0100.5102.8,755529870718256,8.735.979.78.92.86,0.881.100.001.000.17,-10.74-26.42-0.32-52.02-40.31,B
25、uyBuyBuyBuyBuy,StableStableStableStablePositive,Ba3/BB/BB-,9.25%13,$491m,105.5,331,3.64,-0.13,5.81,Buy,HyvaJaverMarfrig,HYVANLJAVERMARFRI,B2/B+/B+B1/N.A./B+B2/B+/B+,8.625%16,$375m9.875%21,$240m8.375%18,$734m,95.0101.184.0,9438391160,10.49.6812.44,0.001.250.00,-0.45-15.673.48,BuyBuyBuy,StablePositive
26、Stable,B2/B+/B+,9.5%20,$500m,86.0,1125,12.41,0.50,-5.70,Buy,MIE HoldingsMNC Sky VisionSovcomflotTexhongUkreximbank,MIEHOLBMTRIJSCFRUTEXTEXEXIMUK,NR/B+/BB2/B+/NRBa2/N.A./BBB-Ba3/BB-/NRB2/N.A./B,9.75%16,$400m12.75%15,$165m5.375%17,$800m7.625%16,$200m8.375%15,$750m,105.5111.5102.299.097.3,7538374097329
27、21,7.98.44.878.09.61,0.00-0.250.202.00-0.50,-1.885.29-2.83-61.5025.34,BuyBuyBuyBuyBuy,StableStableStableStableNegative,Source:Deutsche Bank.,Page 4,Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.,15 October 2012,Emerging Market Corporates,Figure 4:Summary of Sell recommendations High Grade,12-Oct-12,Ch.Price,Ch.Sprea
28、d,Bond,Issuer Credit,IssuerChina Resources GasLukoilNovatekSinopecTAQAVTB Bank,BBG TickerCHIRESLUKOILNOTKRMSINOPETAQAUHVTB,Bond RatingsBaa1/NR/BBB+Baa2/BBB-/BBB-Baa3/BBB-e/BBB-Aa3/A+/NRA3/A-/N.A.N.A./BBB/BBB,Bond details4.5%22,$750m6.656%22,$500m6.604%21,$650m2.75%17,$1,000m6.5%36,$912m6.465%15,$125
29、0m,Mid-Price109.2122.1117.9104.3129.0107.3,Spread179234270107218287,Yield3.43.884.041.84.513.27,wow1.060.500.000.172.000.25,wow-11.612.676.52-6.132.19-10.91,Recomm.SellSellSellSellSellSell,OutlookStableStableStableStableStableStable,N.A./BBB/BBBeN.A./BBB/BBB,6.315%18,$750m6.551%20,$1000m,107.0108.0,
30、398401,4.815.31,1.251.90,-24.08-22.32,SellSell,Source:Deutsche BankFigure 5:Summary of Sell recommendations High Grade,12-Oct-12,Ch.Price,Ch.Spread,Bond,Issuer Credit,IssuerBanco PanamericanoJBS,BBG TickerBCOPANJBSSBZ,Bond RatingsBa3/N.A./N.A.B1/BB/BB-,Bond details8.5%20,$500m11.625%14,$700m,Mid-Pri
31、ce115.6109.5,Spread471477,Yield5.905.12,wow-0.130.00,wow7.12-4.12,Recomm.SellSell,OutlookStableNegative,B1/BB/N.A.B1/BB/BB-B1/BB/BB-B1/BB/BB-,10.25%16,$350m10.5%16,$300m8.25%18,$900m8.25%20,$700m,108.6110.0105.0102.0,711687628673,7.687.427.097.88,-0.060.001.380.25,1.48-0.16-29.190.71,SellSellSellSel
32、l,Mobile TelesystemsSeverstal,MOBTELCHMFRU,Ba2/BB/BB+Ba1/BB+/BB-,8.625%20,$750m6.7%17,$1000m,123.3108.8,373395,4.954.72,1.180.25,-11.20-4.15,SellSell,StableStable,Source:Deutsche Bank,Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.,Page 5,AlfaBank,Alliance Bank,ATF Bank,Bicbanco,BMG,China National,Petroleum,CNOOC,DEW
33、A,prices.,15 October 2012,Emerging Market Corporates,Rationale and risks to our recommendationsFigure 6:Rationale and risks factors to our recommendationsWe view Alfa-Bank(AB)as a flagship financial institution amongst the Russian private banks,universe,with well established corporate banking franch
34、ise,growing SME business andconsiderable retail deposit base.We believe that AB has done relatively better versus evenlarger state-owned peers in reducing its bad loan exposures over the past two years and ison a strong footing to maintain in-line-to-slightly-above sector average growth rates in 201
35、2despite potential pressure on CAR.Despite the rally following an upgrade to IG,we still see value inALFARU 7.875%17 and 7.75%21 and recommend Buying,while we keep the 8.5%15,to Hold,9.25%13 and sub-notes 7.5%19 on Hold.Following the full recovery of negative capital in 2011,ALB continued its improv
36、ing fundamentaltrend in 1H12.Steadily growing core revenues,recovering NIM and adequate liquidity underpin ourPositive outlook for this credit.We view potential merger with Temirbank and possible entry ofEBRD as a new shareholder as future additional positive catalysts for the story.We believe that,
37、Downside risks:sharper than expected CAR deterioration,spike inrelated party exposures and NPLs,significant reduction of NIM andprolonged RUB weakness.Upside risks:partial LLP reversal,mergerwith a top-30 bank in Russia,faster than expected retail loans growth,improvement in loans/deposits ratio.Dow
38、nside risks:slow-down in bad debt collection,inability to write-offNPLs,increased dependence on government funding,M&A resulting in,notwithstanding the news,the improving performance of the good bank and gradual fading of the a rating downgrade,headline risks relating to BTA Bank restructuring.bad b
39、ank in ALLIBKs structure would provide a boost to the bonds valuations.We maintainALLIBK 10.5%17 senior notes as our Buy pick.We believe that fundamentally,ATF Bank has the relatively stronger potential to recover its bad,loans and turnaround its balance sheet in 2H12 amongst top-ranked peers.In our
40、 view the fact thatATFBPs bond displays the highest yield across CEEMEA BB universe is appealing.We believethat the recent capital injection would allow the bank to ramp up its LLP levels as it continues withNPL work-out efforts,which should ultimately gain more weight in positively affecting the bo
41、ndvaluations.We favour ATFBP 9.25%14 on an RV basis vs.domestic peers.,Downside risks:further deterioration of the asset quality resulting inprolonged loss-making,default of its ultimate parent,acquisition by aweaker rated player,stand-alone rating downgrade.,BBVA Bancomer,Though BBVA Bancomers 2Q12
42、 was uninspiring,NPL/total loans at 3.4%,a CAR at 14.7%,loans/deposits at 97.2%with very healthy coverage ratios and with a NIM of 5.8%and ROE of,20.7%,Mexicos premier bank franchise remains among the most solid banks in our universe.Negative headlines from Spain have weighed on the performance of B
43、ancomers notes since thedeterioration of the European debt crisis particularly in 2011.However,we believe that theagreement in the EU to recapitalize Spanish banks and create a pan-EU bank oversight functionhave provided the catalyst for spread tightening.As such,we see significant spread compressio
44、nfor Bancomers subordinated notes from current levels.Despite lower than expected profitability,Bicbancos 2Q12 results marked the resumption ofgrowth of the banks lending activities and also showed gradual improvements in asset quality thatcould well indicate the first signs of the banks recovery.Af
45、ter a solid performance in July and earlyAugust,BIC 8.5%notes due in 2020 retraced all the gains and currently trade at a significant spreaddifferential to other mid-sized Brazilian banks.BMGs 2Q12 earnings were weak and continued to reflect the transition to Resolution 3533/08under which the income
46、 from loan assignments is no longer recognized upfront,but according tothe tenor of the loans.While we do not expect any material improvement in the banks results in2012,we believe BMGs association with Itau will address its funding and capital constraints,withthe effects of the JV gradually materia
47、lizing in 2013.At this stage,we do not believe the benefits ofthe JV are incorporated on BMGs notes and we think there is significant tightening potential fromcurrent levels.Petrochinas 1H12 results were weak but appear broadly in line with market consensus.Refiningbusiness continued to post losses
48、due to domestic price regulation.Petrochina accounts for about85%of CNPCs total consolidated numbers.We think CNPCCH bonds still has value overinternational peers given its strategic importance in securing Chinas future energy demand,dominant market position,and strong ties with PRC government.China
49、 Resources Gas metrics were sharply weaker in 1H12 as the company readies itself toexecute on its debt-funded capex/acquisition plans in the near term.Fundamentally we thinkCHIRES should not trade tighter than peers,as we dont believe CHIRES weaker credit metrics will,Downside risks:contagion from t
50、he European debt crisis,deteriorationof Mexicos economy,unexpected deterioration of Bancomers results,particularly asset quality,regulatory measures.Downside risks:further deterioration of Bicbancos results and,particularly,asset quality,negative headlines related to the Brazilianmid-sized banking i
