《MARUTI_SUZUKI_INDIA_LTD(MSIL.IN)OW：2Q13-START_OF_THE_NEW_BEGINNING-2012-12-14.ppt》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《MARUTI_SUZUKI_INDIA_LTD(MSIL.IN)OW：2Q13-START_OF_THE_NEW_BEGINNING-2012-12-14.ppt（11页珍藏版）》请在三一办公上搜索。
1、,31,FlashnoteIndustrialsAutosEquity IndiaOverweightTarget price(INR)1600.00Share price(INR)1362.20Potential return(%)17.5Note:Potential return equals the percentagedifference between the current share price andthe target price,abcGlobal ResearchMaruti Suzuki India Ltd(MSIL IN)OW:2Q13 Start of the ne
2、w beginning With peak competition and labour issues behind the company,we expect growth and operational performance to improve inthe coming quarter.Competitive intensity unlikely to go up again:Key reason to be,PerformanceAbsolute(%)Relative(%),1M0.91.5,3M22.410.6,12M21.015.6,positive on the long te
3、rm,IndexRICBloombergMarket cap(USDm)Market cap(INRm)Enterprise value(INRm),BOMBAY SE IDXMRTI.BOMSIL IN7,275393,553324938,We upgrade to OW and raise our target price to INR1,600(fromINR 1,450)due to upward revision of FY14 estimates.2Q13 update and the 3QFY13 outlook:Maruti reported net revenue of IN
4、R 80.7b,Free float(%)Note:(V)=volatile(please see disclosure appendix)31 October 2012Yogesh Aggarwal*AnalystHSBC Securities and Capital Markets(India)Private Limited+9122 2268 1246yogeshaggarwalhsbc.co.inKarthik Subramaniam*AssociateBangaloreView HSBC Global Research at:http:/*Employed by a non-US a
5、ffiliate ofHSBC Securities(USA)Inc,and is notregistered/qualified pursuant to FINRAregulationsIssuer of report:HSBC Securities andCapital Markets(India)Private LimitedDisclaimer&DisclosuresThis report must be readwith the disclosures andthe analyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix,and with t
6、he Disclaimer,which forms part of it,translating to a 1.6%decline in realization q/q.This is encouraging in light of the declinein diesel sales in this quarter(due to the Manesar issue)and higher discounts during thequarter.EBITDA margins declined 120 bps q/q to 6.3%.We expect volume growth topick-u
7、p to 6%y-o-y in 3Q(like-to-like basis)and EBITDA margin expansion in the rangeof c200bps due to better realization(+9%q/q),50-100bps due to operating leverage,75-100bps benefit from pricing increase and lower discounts.Pricing increase by most of theOEMs in the recent past is encouraging and should
8、lead to lower net discounts(table 2).Key reasons to be positive on the long termCompetitive intensity unlikely to go up again:In our analysis of the global productportfolio of top automobile companies in India,we could not identify many disruptivemodels that these companies could launch in India in
9、the coming quarters as shown inchart7-8(Please refer to our note Not much ammunition left with competition on27 September 2012).This would mean unless the OEMs develop models especially forIndian car market,the new model introductions in the coming years may be lower than inthe past three to four ye
10、ars.Maruti has the highest exposure to first-time buyers in India andis well positioned to benefit from any revival in the car market in 2013.We expect thedisparity between the petrol and diesel car sales to moderate as well in the medium to longterm.Additionally,CNG cars could add another layer of
11、growth for the company.Labour issues behind the company:With most of the labour negotiations and wage inflationbehind the company.We believe it is unlikely that any labour disruption may reoccur in theforeseeable future(the net impact of wage inflation is in the range of 20-30bps on margins).Other u
12、pside risks:YEN depreciation and a further reduction in differential between petroland diesel price are further upside risks to our estimates.Estimates and Valuation:We are upgrading our FY14e margin estimates(EPS=c5%)owing to better margin outlook.Our DCF based TP is raised to INR1600 from INR 1450
13、.Our estimates for FY14e earnings are 6%above consensus.Downside risks:Weakness inthe car market and YEN,Maruti Suzuki India Ltd(MSIL IN)Autos31 October 2012Financials&valuationFinancial statements,Valuation data,abc,Year to,03/2012a,03/2013e,03/2014e,03/2015e,Year to,03/2012a,03/2013e,03/2014e,03/2
14、015e,Profit&loss summary(INRm),EV/sales,0.9,0.7,0.6,0.5,RevenueEBITDADepreciation&amortisationOperating profit/EBITNet interestPBT,355,87125,129-11,38313,7463,48425,498,444,12233,887-15,43118,456-64722,776,553,01049,201-18,60630,595-64737,397,634,28858,218-21,34136,877-64744,917,EV/EBITDAEV/ICPE*P/B
15、ook valueFCF yield(%)Dividend yield(%),12.73.824.12.6-0.60.6,9.63.121.52.4-0.80.9,6.32.713.22.12.20.9,5.02.210.91.83.10.9,HSBC PBTTaxationNet profitHSBC net profit,21,462-5,11120,38816,352,22,776-4,48618,29018,290,37,397-7,47929,91729,917,44,917-8,73636,18236,182,Note:*=Based on HSBC EPS(fully dilut
16、ed)Price relative,Cash flow summary(INRm),16341534,16341534,Cash flow from operationsCapexCash flow from investmentDividendsChange in net debtFCF equity,26,891-23,125-33,531-2,5368,414-2,092,27,959-30,336-30,336-4,0586,435-2,788,49,978-32,435-32,435-4,058-13,4857,186,58,735-37,202-37,202-4,058-17,47
17、610,421,14341334123411341034934,14341334123411341034934,Balance sheet summary(INRm)Intangible fixed assets 0Tangible fixed assets 81,321Current assets80,227Cash&others24,362Total assets223,022Operating liabilities53,379Gross debt10,784Net debt-13,578Shareholders funds151,873Invested capital83,808,09
18、6,22680,63717,927238,33754,46210,784-7,143166,105104,475,0110,055102,14631,412273,67463,94010,784-20,628191,965116,849,0125,915125,72948,888313,11771,25910,784-38,104224,089131,497,8342010Maruti Suzuki India LtdSource:HSBCNote:price at close of 29 Oct 2012,2011 2012Rel to BOMBAY SE SENSITIVE INDEX,8
19、342013,Ratio,growth and per share analysis,Year to,03/2012a,03/2013e,03/2014e,03/2015e,Y-o-y%change,RevenueEBITDAOperating profitPBTHSBC EPS,-3.9-31.4-48.1-16.2-28.6,24.834.934.3-10.711.9,24.545.265.864.263.6,14.718.320.520.120.9,Ratios(%),Revenue/IC(x)ROICROEROAEBITDA marginOperating profit marginE
20、BITDA/net interest(x)Net debt/equityNet debt/EBITDA(x),4.614.211.310.27.13.9-8.9-0.5,4.715.711.58.27.64.252.4-4.3-0.2,5.022.116.711.98.95.576.0-10.7-0.4,5.123.917.412.59.25.890.0-17.0-0.7,CF from operations/net debtPer share data(INR),EPS reported(fully diluted)HSBC EPS(fully diluted)DPSBook value,7
21、0.5456.587.50525.51,63.2963.2912.00574.76,103.52103.5212.00664.24,125.20125.2012.00775.39,2,Maruti Suzuki India Ltd(MSIL IN)Autos31 October 20122Q13 excerptsTable 1:Maruti 2Q13 SummaryOverview of 2Q13 results*Reported net revenues of INR 80.7b,up 7%y-o-y*Average selling price per vehicle declined 1.
22、6%q-o-q owing to weaker product mix and lower diesel sales but partially helped by better exportrealizations.*EBITDA margins declined 120bps sequentially to 6.3%as impact of negative operating leverage and higher discounts was not fully offset bylower other expenses*Raw material costs as%sales incre
23、ased to 81.9%(from 79.7%in 1Q13).*Tax rate for the quarter declined to 18.7%from 19.4%in 1Q13*Royalty costs as%sales declined to 5.4%compared to 6.2%in 1Q13 owing to favourable currency which also resulted in a reversal of INR380m from the previous quarter.*EPS for the quarter was INR7.9,down 5.4%y-
24、o-yDemand Update and Outlook*Trend of relative customer preference for diesel cars over petrol continues.Industry diesel car growth was up 40%compared to a decline of 20%for petrol*Over 70,000 diesel vehicles sold in the quarter compared to 1,00,000 units in 1Q13.Diesel models continue to enjoy high
25、 waiting periods.Marutihas customer wait list of nearly 125,000 units.*Inventory levels for petrol models are currently at 2-3 weeks.Average discounts for the quarter increased to INR 14,750 compared to INR11,650 in 1Q13 owing to lower diesel proportion.*Production at Manesar plant has normalized to
26、 c1,600 units/day*Festive demand trends encouraging and management sees sales slightly higher on y-o-y basis*New Alto has seen a good response with over 30,000 bookings till date*Maintained the diesel vehicle sales guidance of 400,000 units for FY13*Demand from rural India up c20%YTD.Rural sales acc
27、ount for nearly 26%of domestic volumesPrice Hikes*Effected an average price increase of c1%in October,which should impact realizations for Q3 and Q4Margin Outlook*Management does not expect material benefits from RM costs going forward*Volume recovery,improving mix and lower discounts expected to be
28、 supportive of margins*Royalty costs is expected to remain in the range of 5.5%-6%in the near term.Source:Source:Maruti,HSBCTable 2:Most of the OEMs hiked prices recently,abc,OEMMarutiHyundaiHonda SielToyota KirloskarGM IndiaM&MRenault,Recent Price hikes*Hiked prices across models in the range of IN
29、R 2500-5250,representing an averagehike of c1%*To hike prices of all models by up to INR 5,000*Hiked prices of Brio,Jazz and City models by up to 2.6%effective from 1st October*Hiked prices across all models by c1.5%*Hiked prices across models in the range of INR 8,000-20,000*Effected a price hike b
30、etween 0.5-2.3%in the month of July for its automotive division*Hiked the price of the Duster model by upto INR40,000,Effective date3rd October 20121st November 20121st October 20121st September 20128th October 2012Jul-121st October 2012,Source:Press releases,News Articles3,Aug-12,May-12,Dec-11,Nov-
31、11,Feb-12,Sep-12,Mar-12,Apr-12,Jan-12,Jun-12,Oct-11,Jul-12,2Q10,3Q10,4Q10,1Q11,2Q11,3Q11,4Q11,1Q12,2Q12,3Q12,4Q12,1Q13,1Q13,2Q11,2Q13,3Q11,4Q11,1Q12,2Q12,3Q12,4Q12,2Q13,4Q09,1Q11,4Q10,3Q10,2Q10,1Q10,4Q11,3Q11,2Q11,2Q12,1Q12,1Q13,4Q12,3Q12,2Q13,11%11%,Maruti Suzuki India Ltd(MSIL IN)Autos31 October 2
32、012Maruti at a glanceChart1:Maruti has regained market share in September postnormalization of production at Manesar plant,Chart2:Net realizations declined 1.6%q-o-q on account oflower diesel sales and unfavourable product mix,abc,50%45%40%35%,43%,44%,46%,45%,44%,48%,45%,360,000320,000,30%25%,30%,27
33、%,280,000,20%Maruti domestic passenger market car shareSource:Company data,SIAM,CRISILChart3:Product mix deteriorated in the quarter as Swift andDzire sales were hit by Manesar lockout,240,000Net realization per vehicle(INR)Source:Company data,HSBCChart4:Other income contribution to PBT,100%80%60%40
34、%20%,11%25%62%,13%29%56%,14%29%55%,22%34%44%,17%25%57%,80%60%40%20%,16%,16%,15%,24%,35%,61%,37%,21%,56%,0%,0%,2Q12,3Q12,4Q12,1Q13,2Q13,A1:MiniA3:Super CompactA5:Ex ecuti ve,A2:CompactA4:Mid-Size,Other income as%Profit before tax,Source:Company data,HSBCChart5:EBITDA margins in 2Q13 declined 120bpsse
35、quentially due to negative operating leverage impact andhigher discounts,Source:Company dataChart6:Royalty expenses in 2Q13 declined by 80bpssequentially,20%15%10%5%,9%,15%13%13%,13%,10%10%10%,5%,7%7%,6%,20%15%10%5%0%,80%3%5%3%,82%4%6%4%,81%4%6%3%,81%4%5%3%,80%4%6%3%,82%4%5%3%,83%81%79%77%75%73%,0%,
36、1Q12,2Q12,3Q12,4Q12,1Q13,2Q13,S&M expensesOther ex penses,RoyaltyRaw Material(RHS),4,Source:Company data,HSBC,Source:Company data,Maruti Suzuki India Ltd(MSIL IN)Autos31 October 2012Table 3:Maruti 2Q13 results,abc,_ 2Q13 _,2QFY12,1QFY13,_ Variance(%)_,Actual,HSBCe Consensus,Vs.HSBCe Consensus,YoY,Qo
37、Q,Revenues(INRm)EBITDA(INRm)EBITDA marginNet ProfitEPS,80,7015,0856.3%2,2747.9,80,1004,3905.5%2,1377.4,80,5634,6515.8%2,0337.4,75,3754,9426.6%2,4048.3,105,2927,8637.5%4,23814.7,0.8%15.9%0.8%6.4%6.4%,0.2%9.3%0.5%11.9%6.6%,7.1%2.9%-0.3%-5.4%-5.4%,-23.4%-35.3%-1.2%-46.3%-46.3%,Source:Company data,HSBCe
38、,BloombergValuations and estimatesThe stock is currently trading at 13x our FY14e earnings.We increase our FY13/FY14 earnings estimate by1%and 5%respectively owing to pick up in operations,better margin outlook and lower tax rates.Maruti hasthe highest exposure to first-time buyers in India and is w
39、ell positioned to benefit from any revival in the carmarket in 2013-14.CNG cars could add another layer of growth for the company over the long term.Factoring in the revised outlook our free cash flow estimate for the company has increased by 10%and 26%for FY14 and FY15 respectively.Our valuation is
40、 based on DCF analysis and validated by both PE andEV/EBITDA multiples.We use a WACC of 11%based on a risk-free rate of 3.5%and cost of equity of 11%.We revise upward our DCF based TP to INR1,600(from INR 1,450)and upgrade the stock to Overweight(from Neutral).Our Target price implies a PE multiple
41、of 15x our FY14 earnings estimate.Under our research model,for stocks without a volatility indicator,the Neutral band is 5ppt above andbelow the hurdle rate for Indian stocks of 11%.Our target price of INR1,600 implies a potential return of17%,which is above the Neutral band;therefore,we reiterate o
42、ur rating to Overweight.Potential returnequals the percentage difference between the current share price and the target price,including theforecast dividend yield when indicated.Risks:Slower pick-up in demand,yen appreciation and potential success of new rival launches remainthe key downside risks.5
43、,6,MarutiSuzukiIndiaLtd(MSILIN),Autos,31October2012,abc,i30,i40,Clio,As highlighted in red text there are only few models which can be prospective threats to Maruti in the mini and compact segment.Most of the other cars are either tooexpensive for that segment or the OEMs like Fiat have very weak di
44、stribution and service reach.Furthermore,even in the identified cars,most the cars need to be redesigned/re-sourced to cut the price by nearly 30-40%to attract the mini-and compact segment.This would remain challenging for the global OEMs.VW recently has indefinitely delayedits plan to launch UP in
45、India due to its inability to reproduce the model at a lower price from the existing selling model.Chart 7:Prospective new launches by the global OEMs operating in India-IAverage price in,OEM,Model,Segment,Picture,global markets Fuel Variants,Engine Displacement(cc),Markets Sold,Comments,(USD),Hyund
46、aiHyundai,CompactSuper-compact,22,830-32,280 Petrol/Diesel27,400-39,200 Petrol/Diesel,1600/1800(P)1600(D)1591/1999(P)1685(D),Europe,US,Canada,SouthKorea,AustraliaEurope,South Korea,Australiaand NZ,*Expected to be launched in India in mid-2013*Has increased market share every year in UK since launch
47、in2008*Expected to be launched in India in mid-2013,*The Renault Clio is a supermini car launched in 1990,it iscurrently in its third generation.,Renault Nissan,Compact,14,690-26,650 Petrol/Diesel,1200/1400/1600(P)1500(D),Europe,Mexico and Japan,*The Clio is being consistently one of Europes top-sel
48、ling carssince its launch,*The Clio IV will be sold from October 2012,after being shownat the Paris Auto show,Renault Nissan,Scenic,Compact,$22,050-$36,200,Petrol/Diesel,1200/1400/1600(P)1500(D),Europe,Africa,Russia andChina,*Grand Scnic(length:4.56m)is available in five-and seven-seat variants,*Sup
49、er-mini car produced by Dacia,based on the Loganplatform,Renault Nissan,Sandero,Compact,$22,050-$36,200,Petrol/Diesel,1400/1600(P)1500(D),Brazil,Europe,South Africa,Russia,*Sandero was first launched in Brazil in 2007-first Renaultmodel to be launched outside Europe*Second generation Sandero to be u
50、nveiled at Paris Auto Show,in 2012*Currently sold only*The Volkswagen Up is a compact car,part of the VolkswagenGroup New Small Family(NSF)series of models,unveiled at the,Volkswagen,Up!,Compact,10,400-14,300 Petrol,1000(P),Europe,2011 Frankfurt Motor Show,*Production of the Up started in December 2
