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1、30%,November 28,2012Asia:Technology:SemiconductorsEquity ResearchDRAM:Mobile competition continues albeit stabilizing PC DRAMPC DRAM price stabilizing on supply cuts,After posting a 14%qoq decline in 3Q12,commodity DRAM contract pricestarted to stabilize in November.Although PC demand remains weak f
2、or2H12,production cuts by DRAM makers have contributed to stabilized PCDRAM prices.In light of decelerating supply growth along with fallingutilization rate,we project that PC DRAM prices will likely remain stableuntil the end of 2012,albeit sub-seasonal PC demand.Mobile DRAM supply growth to accele
3、rate price erosion in 1Q13In tandem with solid demand growth from smartphones and tabletscoupled with lackluster demand from PC,major DRAM makers are rapidlyincreasing capacity allocation to mobile DRAM from PC DRAM.Solid,RELATED RESEARCH1 October 2012:Asia:Technology:Semiconductors:DRAM:New PC/tabl
4、et forecasts imply weaker DRAM demand10 August 2012:DRAM:New PC forecasts imply furtherweakness in DRAM demand1 August 2012:Proactive DRAM utilization control mayimply limited margin expansion27 July 2012:DRAM:Lowering pricing assumptionsreflecting weaker demandMOBILE DRAM SUPPLY/DEMAND TREND(mn,1Gb
5、equiv.)4,000,seasonal demand will result in decelerating mobile DRAM price contractionfor 4Q12,in our view.However,we foresee that mobile DRAM priceerosion will likely accelerate again in 1Q13,as a consequence of:(1)potential inventory de-stocking for mobile DRAM,and(2)sequentialmobile DRAM supply g
6、rowth with limited demand recovery from PC.Asymmetric mobile DRAM consumption implies steep competitionGiven dominant positions in the smartphone market,SEC and Apple have,3,5003,0002,5002,0001,5001,0005000,TotalMobileDRAMSupplyOver/(Under)supply(RHS),TotalMobileDRAMDemand,25%20%15%10%5%0%5%,emerged
7、 as major demand drivers for mobile DRAM,accounting foraround 50%of global mobile DRAM demand.We view that asymmetricmobile DRAM consumption will lead to steep pricing competition,takinginto account:(1)SECs internal mobile DRAM sourcing resulting in smalleraddressable market for other DRAM makers,an
8、d(2)heavy dependency onApple leaving DRAM makers with limited bargaining power and fluctuatingmobile DRAM shipments coinciding with Apples product cycles.Samsung Electronics remains our top Buy pick;Neutral on HynixAlthough Hynix recently rebounded on expectation for sequential earningsmomentums and
9、 stabilizing PC DRAM prices,we view that its current shareprice largely reflects its improving outlook.We expect accelerating mobileDRAM price contraction in 1Q13 to deteriorate its profitability as well asshare price momentum.Meanwhile,we maintain our Buy rating onSamsung Electronics(our top pick i
10、n the memory sector).Although currentshare price is at a historically high level,P/E,EV/EBITDA,and P/B remainsbelow three-year historical levels and we see several catalysts in FY13.,Source:Company data,DRAMeXchange,Gartner,GoldmanSachs Research estimates.,Marcus Shin+82(2)3788-1154 Goldman Sachs(As
11、ia)L.L.C.,Seoul BranchMichael Bang+82(2)3788-1655 Goldman Sachs(Asia)L.L.C.,Seoul BranchIkuo Matsuhashi,CMA+81(3)6437-9860 Goldman Sachs Japan Co.,Ltd.Hyunwoo Nam+82(2)3788-1704 Goldman Sachs(Asia)L.L.C.,Seoul BranchThe Goldman Sachs Group,Inc.,Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business withcompani
12、es covered in its research reports.As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investorsshould consider this report as only a single factor in makingtheir investment decision.For Reg AC certification and otherimp
13、ortant disclosures,see the Disclosure Appendix,or go Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analystswith FINRA in the U.S.Global Investment Research,2,November 28,2012,Asia:Technology:Semiconductors,PC DRAM price stabilizing on supply cutsAfter posting a 14%q
14、oq decline in 3Q12,commodity DRAM contract price started tostabilize in November.According to DRAMeXchange,2Gb DDR3 remained flat at$0.83 inthe first half of November 2012.Along with stabilizing prices,the price gap betweencontract and spot prices has narrowed substantially.,Exhibit 1:DDR3 2Gb prici
15、ng trend(US$)2.502.302.101.901.701.501.301.100.900.700.50,Exhibit 2:DDR3 2Gb contract price premium vs.spot50%40%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%-30%,2GbeTTSource:DRAMeXchange,2Gb1333MHzspot,DDR32Gb1333MHzcontract,DDR3 2Gb 1333MHz contract price premium vs.spotSource:DRAMeXchange,Although PC demand remains weak
16、despite favorable seasonality for 2H12,production cutsby DRAM makers have contributed to stabilized PC DRAM prices,in our view.As aconsequence of lackluster PC demand as well as ongoing price erosion,less costcompetitive DRAM makers started to lower utilization rate in 2H12.Our bottom-up analysissug
17、gests that global DRAM capacity will likely decline 8%to 1.06mn WPM(12-inchequivalent)in 4Q12 from 1.15mn WPM in 2Q12.Exhibit 3:Global DRAM capacity trend(K wafer/m)1,8001,600,1,4001,200,30%,20%,8%,1,0008006004002000,1Q08,4Q08,3Q09,2Q10,1Q11,4Q11,3Q12,2Q13E,SamsungNanya,SK HynixPowerchip,MicronProMo
18、s,ElpidaOthers,Note:We are Not Covered on Nanya,Powerchip,ProMos and Elpida.Estimates for NC companies are based onDRAMeXchange and Gartner data.Source:Company data,DRAMeXchange,Gartner,Goldman Sachs Research estimates.Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research,3,November 28,2012,Asia:Technology:Semic
19、onductors,In light of decelerating supply growth along with falling utilization rate,we project that PCDRAM price will likely remain stable until the end of 2012,albeit sub-seasonal PC demand.Mobile DRAM supply growth to accelerate price erosion in 1Q13Contrary to ongoing weakness in PC DRAM demand,
20、mobile DRAM demand continues toincrease rapidly with strong smartphone and tablet shipment growth.As per our estimates,global mobile DRAM demand will likely surge by 99%yoy in 2012,followed by an 80%yoygrowth in 2013E.Exhibit 4:Mobile DRAM demand trend(mn,1Gbequiv.),4,0003,5003,0002,5002,0001,5001,0
21、005000,60%50%40%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%,1Q10 3Q10 1Q11Basic/Feature phoneTabletOthers,3Q11,1Q12,3Q12 1Q13E 3Q13ESmartphonePMP/Portable Game PlayersChang qoq(RHS),Source:Company data,Gartner,DRAMeXchange,Goldman Sachs Research estimates.In tandem with solid demand growth from smartphones and tablets coup
22、led with lacklusterdemand from PC,major DRAM makers are rapidly increasing capacity allocation to mobileDRAM from PC DRAM.In terms of bit shipment,mobile DRAM will likely represent 29%ofglobal DRAM supply in 4Q12,surging from 17%in 4Q11.Along with incremental capacityallocation,mobile DRAM supply wi
23、ll keep increasing rapidly.We estimate that globalmobile DRAM shipment will increase 28%qoq in 4Q12,following a 24%qoq growth in3Q12.Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research,4Q12E,1Q13E,2Q13E,3Q13E,4Q13E,1Q10,2Q10,3Q10,4Q10,1Q11,2Q11,3Q11,4Q11,1Q12,2Q12,3Q12,4,November 28,2012Exhibit 5:Mobile DRAM b
24、it portion trend60%,Asia:Technology:SemiconductorsExhibit 6:Mobile DRAM supply trend(mn,1Gbequiv.),4,000,40%,50%40%30%20%10%0%,3,5003,0002,5002,0001,5001,0005000,35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%-5%,1Q10 3Q10 1Q11Samsung,3Q11 1Q12Hynix,3Q12 1Q13E 3Q13EElpida,Industryaverage.,Samsung,Hynix,Elpida,Micron,MicronC
25、hang qoq(RHS),Nanya,Winbond,Note:We are Not Covered on Elpida.Estimates for NC companies are basedon DRAMeXchange and Gartner data.Source:Company data,DRAMeXchange,Gartner,Goldman Sachs Researchestimates.,Note:We are Not Covered on Nanya,Elpida and Winbond.Estimates for NCcompanies are based on DRAM
26、eXchange and Gartner data.Source:Company data,DRAMeXchange,Gartner,Goldman Sachs Researchestimates.,Despite substantial supply growth,decreasing mobile DRAM pricing trend will deceleratein 4Q12(around 5-10%qoq decline for 4Q12 vs.10%+qoq declines for the past fewquarters),chiefly on account of solid
27、 demand from smartphone and tablet.Due to seasonaldownturn in demand,however,we project that mobile DRAM demand will sequentiallydecline along with potential mobile DRAM inventory de-stocking in 1Q13.On the flip side,mobile DRAM supply will continue to grow in 1Q13 with limited demand recovery from
28、PC.As such,we expect mobile DRAM price contraction to accelerate again in 1Q13,pressurizing DRAM makers profitability.Exhibit 7:Mobile DRAM supply/demand trend(mn,1Gbequiv.),4,0003,5003,0002,5002,0001,5001,0005000,TotalMobileDRAMSupply,TotalMobileDRAMDemand,30%25%20%15%10%5%0%5%,Over/(Under)supply(R
29、HS)Source:Company data,DRAMeXchange,Gartner,Goldman Sachs Research estimates.Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research,4Q12E,1Q13E,2Q13E,3Q13E,4Q13E,1Q10,2Q10,3Q10,4Q10,1Q11,2Q11,3Q11,4Q11,1Q12,2Q12,3Q12,5,November 28,2012,Asia:Technology:Semiconductors,Asymmetric mobile DRAM consumptions imply steep
30、 competitionIn the global smartphone market,Samsung Electronics(SEC)and Apple(AAPL,Buy,on CL,US$589.53;covered by Bill Shope)continue to lead the market,commanding dominantshares.Accordingly,mobile DRAM demand from SEC and Apple kept increasing rapidly aswell.As per our estimates,mobile DRAM demand
31、from SEC and Apple including bothsmartphones and tablets will reach 1.9bn units and 1.1bn units(on a 1Gb equivalent basis)for 2012,representing 31%and 18%of global mobile DRAM demand,respectively.Exhibit 8:Mobile DRAM demand from SEC and Apple as%of total60%50%40%30%20%10%0%,DemandfromSamsung&Apple,
32、DemandfromSamsung,DemandfromAppleSource:Company data,Goldman Sachs Research estimates.Given that SECs smartphone and tablet supply chain is vertically integrated fromsemiconductors such as mobile DRAM,NAND,and AP to other components includingdisplay and battery,SEC mostly sources its mobile DRAM int
33、ernally.In addition,as aconsequence of ongoing patent litigation,Apple has substantially lowered its proportion ofmobile DRAM procurement from SEC.In our view,these factors pose structural challengesfor major DRAM makers from two perspectives.Firstly,with SEC mostly procuring its mobile DRAM for sma
34、rtphones and tablets internally,other DRAM makers such as Hynix and Elpida(6665.T,Not Covered)/Micron(MU,NotRated;covered by James Schneider)inherently have very limited exposure to SECs mobileDRAM supply chains.As such,we view that SECs internal mobile DRAM sourcing willcontinue to leave a smaller
35、addressable market for other DRAM makers,which will result inintensifying price competition so as to gain more share within the remaining mobile DRAMmarket.Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research,6,November 28,2012,Exhibit 9:Mobile DRAM supply/demand map,Asia:Technology:Semiconductors,Mobile DRAMde
36、mand(2012E)51%18%31%,MajorSuppliersSamsung,Hynix,Elpida,Micron,Winbond,NanyaHynixandElpidaMostlySamsung,Samsung,Apple,Others,Note:We are Not Covered on Nanya,Winbond and Elpida.Estimates for NC companies are based on DRAMeXchange andGartner data.Source:DRAMeXchange,Gartner,Goldman Sachs Research est
37、imates.Secondly,we view that Apples dominant shares in the mobile DRAM demand will leaveDRAM makers with limited bargaining power as well as fluctuating shipment trends.Weestimate that Apple represents approximately 25%-30%of global mobile DRAM demandexcluding SEC.As Hynix and Elpida/Micron have to
38、largely rely on mobile DRAM shipmentfrom a single customer,we project that those DRAM makers will have limited bargainingpower in terms of pricing.On top of it,due to their heavy dependency on Apples demand,their mobile DRAM shipment will likely move in line with Apples product cycles,resultingin su
39、bstantial fluctuations in mobile DRM shipment.Exhibit 10:Mobile DRAM demand from Apple(mn,1Gbequiv.),9008007006005004003002001000,140%120%100%80%60%40%20%0%-20%,1Q10,3Q10,1Q11,3Q11,1Q12,3Q12 1Q13E 3Q13E,From Apple handsets,From Apple tablets,Change qoq(RHS),Source:Company data,Goldman Sachs Research
40、 estimates.Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research,7,November 28,2012,Asia:Technology:Semiconductors,Samsung Electronics remains our top Buy pick;Neutral on HynixAs a consequence of:(1)stabilizing PC DRAM pricing trends,(2)robust rebound in NANDprice,and(3)expectation for sequential earnings moment
41、um from 4Q12,Hynixs shareshave exhibited solid upward momentum,rebounding about 27%from its recent bottom(W20,250 in July 2012)vs.KOSPIs 6%.Trading at 17X P/E and 1.6X P/B with ROE of 8%forFY13E,however,its current share price mostly reflects improving earnings outlook,in ourview.On top of that,we p
42、roject that accelerating mobile DRAM price contraction in 1Q13will potentially deteriorate its profitability as well as any upward share price momentum.Hence,we remain Neutral on Hynix.,Exhibit 11:Hynixs forward P/B(X)3.53.0,Exhibit 12:Hynixs historical ROE trend60%40%,2.52.0,20%0%-20%,Historical av
43、g.=10%,1.51.0,Historical avg.=1.6x,-40%-60%-80%,0.5,2004,2006,ROE,2008,2010 2012EHistorical average,2014E,0.0Jan-04,Jan-05,Jan-06,Jan-07,Jan-08,Jan-09,Jan-10,Jan-11,Jan-12,Hynix 1-yr fwd P/B,Historical average,Source:Company data,Goldman Sachs Research,Source:Company data,Goldman Sachs Research esti
44、mates.,Meanwhile,we maintain our Buy rating on SEC.Although current share price is at ahistorically high level,P/E,EV/EBITDA,and P/B remains below the three-year historicallevel and we see several catalysts in FY13 such as firm smartphone operations andimprovements from the NAND,System LSI,Display P
45、anel,and tablet businesses.As such,SEC remains our top Buy pick in the memory sector.,Exhibit 13:Samsung Electronics P/B band(W)1,600,0001,400,0001,200,0001,000,000800,000600,000400,000200,0000Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13,Exhibit 1
46、4:Samsung Electronics EV/EBITDA band(W)1,600,0001,400,0001,200,0001,000,000800,000600,000400,000200,0000Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13,Price,1X,1.5X,2X,2.5X,3X,Price,3X,4.5X,6X,7.5X,9X,Source:Company data,Goldman Sachs Research estim
47、ates.Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research,Source:Company data,Goldman Sachs Research estimates.,8,November 28,2012,Asia:Technology:Semiconductors,Rating and pricing informationSamsung Electronics(B/A,W1,404,000)and SK Hynix Inc.(N/A,W25,800)Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research,9,November 28,
48、2012,Asia:Technology:Semiconductors,Disclosure AppendixReg ACI,Marcus Shin,hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company orcompanies and its or their securities.I also certify that no part of my compensation was,is or wil
49、l be,directly or indirectly,related to the specificrecommendations or views expressed in this report.Investment ProfileThe Goldman Sachs Investment Profile provides investment context for a security by comparing key attributes of that security to its peer group andmarket.The four key attributes depi
50、cted are:growth,returns,multiple and volatility.Growth,returns and multiple are indexed based on compositesof several methodologies to determine the stocks percentile ranking within the regions coverage universe.The precise calculation of each metric may vary depending on the fiscal year,industry an
