WHERE_TO_INVEST_NOW-2012-08-30.ppt

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1、The Goldman Sachs Group,Inc.Goldman Sachs ResearchWhere to Invest NowCliff NotesAugust 2012,David J.KostinGoldman,Sachs&Co.,Chief US Equity Strategist212-902-6781,Global ECS Research-US Portfolio S,The Goldman Sachs Group,Inc.does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research repor

2、ts.As a result,investors should be awarethat the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors should consider this report as only a single factor inmaking their investment decision.For Reg AC certification,see the end of the text.Other important dis

3、closures follow the Reg AC certification,or go to employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S.,2,2012 US equity strategyUS Equity Strategy Balance Sheet,Positives,Negatives,Economy2012=2.3%2013=2.0%Earnings2012=$1002013=$106ValuationYear-end

4、2012=125012-month=1350Money FlowNet demand=$500 billion,Recent job gainsFCI,CAI,US-MAP improvingHousing bottomedRetail sales growthEurope crisis stabilizedAccelerating EPS growth in 2013Fed modelMacroeconomic regressionRelative value vs.bondsCorporate buybacks,Unemployment rate at 8.3%ISM below 50/E

5、RLI below 50,3-mo avg.Weak regional Fed surveysFiscal Cliff2Q S&P 500 Beige BookEPS revisions and 3Q Yr/Yr growth negativeMinimal sales growthFX headwindsDividend Discount Model(DDM)Cyclically-adjusted P/EMutual fund outflow,InvestmentStrategies,High US revenues()versus International sales();High Qu

6、ality stocks();High Dividend yield and growth();Cyclical stocks with attractive risk/reward(),Note:The ability totrade baskets willdepend upon marketconditions,includingliquidity and borrow,constraints at the timeof trade.Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research,S&500Level,&P,31-Jan,30-Apr,30-Jun,31-Jul,3,

7、31-May,31-Mar,29-Feb,31-Oct,3,30-Nov,3,31-Dec,3,31-Dec,3,31-Aug,3,30-Sep,3,Debt ceiling crisis prompted a sharp sell-off in 2011;2012 may repeat pattern as fiscal cliff approachesS&P 500 Index in 2011 and 2012 YTD15002012,1400,2012,electionand,fiscal cliff1300201112002011 debt,1100,ceiling crisis,So

8、urce:IDC via FactSet and Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.As of August 15,2012.Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research,EstimatedGDPImpact(%),4,Effect of government fiscal policy on GDP growthCurrent law;GS scenario;Everything extendedGDP impact of federal,state,and local government fiscal contraction321A

9、ll items extended0(1)GS,(2)(3),baseline scenarioCurrent law(all items expire),2009,2010,2011,2012,2013,(4),Q1,Q2,Q3,Q4,Q1,Q2,Q3,Q4,Q1,Q2,Q3,Q4,Q1,Q2,Q3,Q4,Q1,Q2,Q3,Q4,Note:Annualized;excludes second round effects.GS Economics baseline assumption:Payroll tax cut expires after 2012;jobless benefits ph

10、ased down to a maximum of 59 weeks;income tax cuts extended through 2013;automatic spending cuts do not take effect.Current Law:Payroll tax cut,2001/2003 tax cuts,and jobless benefits to expire after 2012,sequester spending cuts and the new 3.8%tax on certain passive income take effect January 2013.

11、Source:Haver and Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.As of August 16,2012.Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research,5,We expect only$193 billion(34%)of$576 billion inscheduled fiscal reductions will take effect in 2013Payroll taxes and Health Care reform account for 86%of expected fiscal drag,Current Law,Gold

12、man Sachs,Policies Scheduled to Take Effect or Expire in 2013Payroll Tax CutAffordable Care Act(Health Reform)Automatic spending cuts(aka sequestration)Emergency Unemployment Compensation2001/2003 Tax Cut(Upper Income)2001/2003 Tax Cut(Low/Middle Income)Total Fiscal Effect,New Spending Cuts&Expiring

13、 Policies,(Billions)$12046904083198$576,Assumption$12046151200$193,Difference$00752883198$383,Goldman Sachs US economic forecast assumes expiration of payroll tax cut,bonus depreciation of$64bn has little effect on activity,extension of 2001/2003 tax cuts,delay of sequester through 2013,andcontinued

14、 phase-down of jobless benefits.Source:Congressional Budget Office,Office of Management and Budget,and Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.As of August 16,2012.Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research,FederalDebt($Tr),Jul-,-10,Jul-,-11,Jul-,-12,Oct-,-10,Oct-,-11,Oct-,-12,Jul-,-13,Jan-,-10,Apr-,-10,Jan-,-11,A

15、pr-,-11,Jan-,-12,Apr-,-12,Jan-,-13,Apr-,-13,Oct-,-13,Jan-,-14,17,15,14,13,6,Double threat:Fiscal Cliff coincides with debt ceilingPolicy uncertainty makes P/E expansion unlikely,Goldman Sachs estimated path to US debt ceiling,18,Federal Debt Ceiling=$16.4 Trillion,Current Public Debt,=$15.9 Trillion

16、,16,Dec 2012,Treasury must begin,disinvesting trust funds,Feb 2013,Treasury must begin priortizingpayments based on available,revenue,Outstanding US Public Debt,(Subject to Limit),12,Source:Department of Treasury and Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.As of August 16,2012.,Goldman Sachs Global ECS Re

17、search,7,Sensitivity analysis of year-end 2012 S&P 500 indexlevel depending on“fiscal cliff”and P/E ratioResolution of fiscal cliff,Full expiration,GS forecast,Full extension,Fiscal drag on US GDP2013 real US GDP growth2013 S&P 500 EPS levelYear/year EPS growth,(3.6)pp(0.4)%$93(6)%,(1.2)pp2.0%$1067%

18、,(0.5)pp2.7%$11010%,Year-end 2012 S&P 500 price on P/E multiple of:,11x12x13x14x,1026111912131306,1169127613821488,1211132114311541,Source:Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.As of August 15,2012.Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research,IndexedGDpercapita,DP,8,Recent US GDP per capita growth trend is followi

19、ngthe path typically observed during other stagnations115Average indexed,110,Stagnation starts,GDP per capitain 93 stagnations,+1SD,10510095,(GDP=100),Japan(1992-2003),US,-1SD,9085,(2008-2013E),Y-2,Y-1,Y0,Y+1,Y+2,Y+3,Y+4,Y+5,Y+6,Y+7,Stagnation yearSource:Compustat,I/B/E/S,FactSet and Goldman Sachs G

20、lobal ECS Research.As of August 16,2012.Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research,IndexedNTMP/E,9,Path of forward P/E multiple in periods of stagnation180Average indexed,160140,Stagnation starts(P/E=100),forward P/E in 17OECD stagnations,18.8x,+1 SD,12014.1x=1500100,8060,Current US,11.8x=12509.3x,40,Forecas

21、t,-1 SD,Y-2,Y-1,Y0,Y+1,Y+2,Y+3,Y+4,Y+5,Y+6,Stagnation YearSource:Compustat,I/B/E/S,FactSet and Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.As of August 16,2012.Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research,Rolling1-MonthUSMAScore,1,AP,S&5001-MonthReturn,&P,h,Jan-1,11,Apr-1,11,Jul-1,11,Oct-1,11,Jan-1,12,Oct-1,12,Apr-1,12,

22、Jul-1,12,10,US-MAP surprise measure implies macro datais now largely in-line with expectations,10075,Positive DataSurprises,2015,50,Rolling 1-Month US MAPScore(LHS),10,25500(25)(5)(50),(75),S&P 5001-Month Return,Negative,(10),(100)(125),(RHS),Data Surprises,(15)(20),Source:Haver and Goldman Sachs Gl

23、obal ECS Research.As of August 17,2012.Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research,4,4,1,4,2,5,11,Consumer data more positive than industrial data,US-MAP Score,Most Recent Data Point,US-MAP Beat,Total Impact,Reported,3M Avg.,Non-Farm Payroll Change,5,5,163,73,+,Retail Sales ex-Autos,0.8%,(0.7)%+,US Balance of

24、 PaymentsConf.Board-Cons ConfidenceADP Non-Farm Payroll ChangeNAHB-Home Builder SentimentISM-ManufacturingPhilly Fed-Bus.Outlook SvyChicago PMI,4331000,2331544,(42.9)65.91633749.8(7.1)53.7,(50.4)65.31383152.7(11.8)53.9,+-+-,Advance GDP,0,4,1.5%,2.0%-,ISM-Non-ManufacturingInitial Jobless Claims,00,32

25、,52.6366,53.1376,-+,Industrial ProductionNew Home SalesPending Home SalesHousing Starts,0000,2221,0.6%(8.4)%(1.4)%(1.1)%,0.3%+1.5%-1.2%-2.4%-,U.Mich-Cons Sent(Prelim),0,1,73.6,74.9,-,Construction Spending,0,1,0.4%,0.7%-,Continuing Jobless Claims,0,1,3305,3297,-,Consumer Spending,(1),(0.0)%,0.1%-,Ric

26、hmond Fed-Svy of Mnf Act,(3),1,(17),4,-,Durable Goods ex-Transport,(4),(1.4)%,(0.3)%-,NY Fed-Empire State Mnf Svy,(4),2,(5.9),8.9,-,Existing Home SalesUnemployment Rate,(4)(5),(5.4)%8.3%,0.2%-8.2%-,Source:Haver and Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.As of August 17,2012.Goldman Sachs Global ECS Resea

27、rch,GDPGrowth(qoqannualized%),%,12,Goldman Sachs forecasts US real GDP growth of2.3%in 2012 and 2.0%in 2013,GS Economics and consensusQuarterly GDP forecasts,Goldman Sachs US Economics forecasts,5.0%4.5%4.0%3.5%3.0%2.5%2.0%,Goldman SachsEconomics4.1,Consensus,Real GDPConsumer SpendingTotal Fixed Inv

28、estmentBusiness Fixed InvestmentResidential InvestmentFederal Government SpendingExports of Goods and ServicesImports of Goods and ServicesInflation,20111.8%2.56.68.6(1.4)(2.8)6.74.8,%Annual Change2012E2.3%1.99.18.710.9(2.8)4.74.4,2013E2.0%1.57.87.110.6(2.4)6.55.4,1.5%1.0%0.5%,2.5,1.3,2.0,1.5,2.3,2.

29、0,1.5,2.0,2.5,2.5,Producer Price IndexHeadline CPICore CPICore PCE,6.03.11.71.4,1.61.92.11.8,2.21.71.61.4,0.0%,0.1Q1A Q2A Q3A Q4A Q1A Q2A Q3E Q4E Q1E Q2E Q3E Q4E,Unemployment RateFed Funds Rate2-year Treasury Rate10-year Treasury Rate,9.00.10.31.9,8.20.10.52.0,8.00.11.02.5,2011,2012,2013,Source:Bloo

30、mberg and Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.As of August 18,2012.Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research,13,Our S&P 500“Beige Book”,Key takeaways from 2Q 2012 conference calls,Theme 1:Global economic slowdown-Europe and China weakness meets US stagnation,Downturn in demand reverses several quarters where

31、foreign revenues received praise compared with astagnating domestic economy.Firms noted the reluctance of customers to place new orders given lackluster end,demand.EM still holds structural promise for many.,Examples:DOW,SBUX,IR,WAT,EMC,BLK,SYK,LLY,UNP,INTC,CAT,MMM,UPS,ROK,MCD,UNH,Theme 2:Challengin

32、g pricing environment-Revenue misses key to 2Q earnings narrative,Customers resisted attempts by suppliers to raise prices.Some shifted to lower-cost alternatives in an effort to,preserve margins.Some managements view economic weakness as long-term headwind to increases.,Examples:QCOM,CHRW,OXY,COP,D

33、OW,UNH,F,MRK,YUM,CAT,LH,Theme 3:Policy uncertainty hampers business activity-Firms strongly desire regulatory clarity,While corporations differed in their views of specific policy measures,firms expressed a uniform desire forpolicy resolution.Domestic topics:presidential election,US Fiscal Cliff,hea

34、lth care reform,stock dividend and R&D,taxation,infrastructure investments.Foreign topics:EU crisis response,Europe austerity measures,China stimulus.,Examples:UPS,BLK,BA,MAR,UNH,WLP,LLY,FRX,LH,SO,KMI,STT,BTU,Theme 4:FX headwinds-Dollar strength had negative impact on 2Q results,33%of S few firms he

35、dged effectively.Several see continued headwinds,through year end.,Examples:MMM,LLY,EMC,SHW,DOW,V,INTC,MRK,KO,Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research,S&P500Level,5,Jul-11,May-11,May-12,Jan-11,Nov-11,Jan-12,Jul-12,Nov-12,P/ERatio,Sep-11,Sep-12,Mar-11,Mar-12,14,SNegative sales and EPS revisions since start

36、of 2012,P/E multiple expansion drives index higher,Negative EPS and sales revisions YTD,1450,14.0 x,3 Month 2012 Revisions,14001350130012501200115011001050,S&P 500 Level(LHS),Forward P/E(RHS),13.0 x,13.5 x13.0 x12.5 x12.0 x11.5 x11.0 x10.5 x10.0 x,Information TechnologyIndustrialsConsumer Discretion

37、aryTelecommunication ServicesHealth CareS&P 500Consumer StaplesUtilitiesFinancialsMaterialsEnergy,EPS(2.6)%(1.0)(1.5)(0.1)(0.2)(2.5)(0.2)(1.0)(1.3)(8.4)(8.4),Sales(1.3)%(1.5)(1.1)(0.4)(0.5)(3.4)(0.4)NMNM(3.5)(12.6),Source:Compustat,FirstCall,I/B/E/S,and Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.As of August

38、 15,2012 and August 16,2012,respectively.Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research,30,0-Jan,31,1-May,30,0-Dec,31,1-Mar,30,0-Jun,29,9-Feb,3,31-Jul,S&P5002012EEPSOverTime,r,S&P5002012EEP,P,PS,31,1-Aug,Se,ep-11,Se,ep-12,Ju,un-11,De,ec-10,De,ec-11,Ju,un-12,Ma,ar-11,Ma,ar-12,De,ec-12,30,0-Apr,15,Consensus 2012 E

39、PS has fallen since start of year,2012 S&P 500 EPS estimate,$30,Revisions to consensus 2012 EPS by quarter,$114$110,$29$28,2012 S&P 500 Consensus EPS by Quarter,4QE$27.15,$106,Consensus,$27$26,2QE$25.42,$102,Goldman Sachs,$102$100,$25$24,3QE$25.151Q$24.24,$98Source:Compustat,FirstCall,and Goldman Sa

40、chs Global ECS Research.As of August 15,2012.Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research,$23,YoYChange(%,%),16,S&P 500 bottom-up consensus sales forecastsTepid outlook for 2012 and 2013 revenue growth,16,S&P 500 Sales growth(year/year),Sales growth by sector,12,11,13,13,10,S&P 500 Year/YearQuarterly Sales Gro

41、wth(ex-Financials&Utilities),Information TechnologyIndustrials,2012E Sales Per Share Growth1QA 2QE 3QE 4QE14 9 6 810 5 3 3,Annual2012E 2013E9 85 5,8,8,Consumer DiscretionaryS&P 500,68,23,52,63,54,55,4,3,2,3,2,5,4,3,Telecom ServicesMaterialsHealth Care,564,402,3(2)1,250,322,263,0,Q1A Q2A Q3A Q4A Q1A

42、Q2E Q3E Q4E Q1E Q2E Q3E Q4E,Consumer StaplesEnergy,610,(1)2,1(3),1(3),22,46,2011,2012,2013,Source:Compustat,I/B/E/S,FirstCall,and Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.As of August 16,2012.Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research,YoYChange(%),Q1A,Q2A,Q3A,Q4A,Q1A,Q2E,Q3E,Q4E,Q1E,Q2E,Q3E,Q4E,15,12,25,20,15,16,19

43、,13,17,S&P 500 bottom-up consensus EPS growth4Q 2012“hockey stick”acceleration unlikely in our view,S&P 500 Earnings growth(year/year),EPS growth by sector,S&P 500 Year/Year Quarterly EPS Growth171512,Information TechnologyIndustrialsFinancialsTelecom Services,2012E Earnings Per Share Growth1QA 2QE

44、3QE 4QE17 7 14 1820 11 6 119 14(0)19(2)26(2)6,Annual2012E 2013E14 1712 1110 167 14,105,8,7,2,S&P 500Health CareConsumer DiscretionaryConsumer Staples,7511,2(4)(3)(0),(0)821,1513135,6542,1312158,0-5,0,UtilitiesMaterialsEnergyS&P 500(ex-Financials),(3)(10)57,(4)(13)(8)0,0(17)(25)(1),686814,(1)(1)(7)5,

45、425713,2011,2012,2013,Source:Compustat,I/B/E/S,FirstCall,and Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.As of August 16,2012.Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research,7.9,18,2007 Peak vs.today,Part I:S&P 500 index changeEarnings at new high,but EPS growth rate falls and P/E contractsS&P 500 Earnings,EPS growth rate,

46、valuation,and index returnChange,9-Oct-07,17-Aug-12,Level,Percent,Earnings,EPS(LTM)EPS(NTM)Expected GrowthValuation(NTM P/E)Index,$9210312.1%15.2 X1565,$10110979%13.0 X1418,$96(4.2)pp(2.2)X(147),10%6(35)%(14)%(9)%,Source:IDC,Compustat,FirstCall,I/B/E/S and Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.As of Aug

47、ust 17,2012.Note:Forward and trailing earnings use adjusted EPSGoldman Sachs Global ECS Research,19,2007 Peak vs.today,Part II:Drivers of index changeReasons S&P 500 trades 147 points(9%)below Oct 2007 peakNegative:EPS collapse in Financials and P/E compression in Health Care,Energy,and IndustrialsP

48、ositive:EPS rise in Information Technology offset by fall in expected growth and P/E compression,9-Oct-07,17-Aug-12,Change in S&P 500 index points,LTM,Expected,P/E,LTM,Expected,P/E,EPS Expected Forward,SectorInformation TechnologyConsumer DiscretionaryConsumer StaplesMaterialsUtilitiesTelecom Servic

49、esHealth CareEnergyIndustrialsFinancialsS&P 500,EPS$9.856.557.562.963.103.309.9613.589.7425.13$91.74,Growth24%189111012151011812%,NTM20.8 X18.417.815.215.915.516.112.116.611.715.2 X,EPS$20.738.719.163.263.422.1712.7013.7610.4416.38$100.73,Growth10%17612(5)0208168%,NTM12.7 X15.116.313.015.621.012.711

50、.613.010.713.0 X,Level138332645(24)3529(93)134,Growth(4)5(2)1(8)(8)(16)(15)(4)7(44),P/E(99)(25)(12)(7)(1)20(38)(8)(39)(28)(237),Total351211(2)(4)(11)(19)(21)(34)(114)(147),LTM EPS uses analyst forecast methodology which differs from Standard&Poors due to varying definitions of operating earnings and