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1、Buy,Buy,Buy,Buy,Buy,Buy,Buy,Buy,Buy,Buy,Buy,Buy,Buy,Sell,Sell,Deutsche BankMarkets Research,AsiaChinaPropertyProperty,IndustryChina Prop Weekly,Date5 November 2012Industry UpdateTony TsangJason Ching,CFA,Sales to remain stable for the rest ofthis yearTotal volume down 1.5%WoWTotal volume in 40 major
2、 cities down 1.5%WoW to 6.81msqm during Oct 29 Nov 4.Total one-week volume for MTD November 2012 was down 1%YoY.Following the weaker-than-expected sales performance in September/October,sales looks like stabilizing last 2 weeks.Overall,sales volume was ranked asthe 4th highest weekly volume YTD.Volu
3、me in Tier-1 cities up 10.8%WoWSales volume in Tier-1 cities during October 29 November 4 increased 10.8%WoW(four-week volume 76%YoY and up 45%MoM).Beijing was down 7%WoW,Shanghai up 41%WoW,Shenzhen up 1%WoW and Guangzhou down1%WoW.Volume this week was down 27%from the October 2010 peak;Tier-1 citie
4、s accounted for 17.0%of the total sales volume in the 40 major cities.Volume in Tier-2/3 cities down 3.7%WoWSales volume in Tier-2/3 cities during Oct 29 Nov 4 was down 3.7%WoW(four-week volume up 53%YoY and up 28%MoM).Volume this week wasdown 7%from the October 2010 peak.Chengdu,Sanya and Lanzhou s
5、aw thebiggest increases of 424%,291%and 68%WoW,respectively.,Research Analyst Research Analyst(+852)2203 6256(+852)2203 Top picksCOLI(0688.HK),HKD21.65China Ovs Grand Oceans(0081.HK),HKD8.30China Resources Land(1109.HK),HKD18.50Sunac(1918.HK),HKD4.25Companies FeaturedCOLI(0688.HK),HKD21.65China Ovs
6、Grand Oceans(0081.HK),HKD8.30China Resources Land(1109.HK),HKD18.50Sunac(1918.HK),HKD4.25Country Garden Holdings(2007.HK),HKD3.51Guangzhou R&F Prop(2777.HK),HKD10.20KWG Property(1813.HK),HKD4.77C C Land(1224.HK),HKD1.93,Minmetals Land Limited,Buy,PBOC to suppress speculative/investment housing deman
7、dPBOC issued the 3Q12 China Monetary Policy Report,reiterating its pledge tosuppress speculative/investment housing demand.The report also said Chinashould continue to strictly follow a differentiating lending policy in the propertysector,and should support the construction of social housing and,(02
8、30.HK),HKD1.15Central China Real Estate(0832.HK),HKD1.93Sino Ocean(3377.HK),HKD5.17Yanlord Land(YNLG.SI),SGD1.27,small/medium sized ordinary commodity housing,while supporting genuinedemand from self-use first-time homebuyers.In our view,this clearly indicatesthat it will continue to support genuine
9、 homebuyers demand,which lays asolid foundation for property sales in 2013.At the same time,with thesuppression of speculative/investment demand,we think the property industryconsolidation trend is likely to continue,with a lot of smaller developerscontinuing to face difficulties,while leading devel
10、opers take market share.Differentiating growth stocks vs.value stocks in China propertyThe China property sector was earlier viewed as a growth sector,but webelieve that growth has likely peaked for the sector and is now only possiblefor a few individual developers.The ability to sustain growth in 2
11、013/14 willdepend largely on:1)ability to replenish landbank at cheaper land costs in2011/1H12,and 2)whether there are restrictive,debt covenants that limitgrowth(via both new acquisitions and construction starts).For growth,our toppicks are COLI,CR Land,COGO and Sunac.For value,we recommenddevelope
12、rs with accelerating sales in 4Q12E Country Garden,R&F and KWG.For small-cap turnaround stories,we like C C Land,Minmetals and CCRE.As ahedge,we recommend selling Sino Ocean and Yanlord.We derive our targetprices from NAV and DCF.Key risks:widespread financial distress and sharpdeterioration in the
13、global economy._Deutsche Bank AG/Hong KongAll prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated.Prices are sourcedfrom local exchanges via Reuters,Bloomberg and other vendors.Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subjectcompanies.Deutsche Bank does and s
14、eeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports.Thus,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.DISCLOSUR
15、ES ANDANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.MICA(P)072/04/2012.,Jul-09,Jul-10,Jul-11,Apr-09,Apr-10,Apr-11,Oct-09,Oct-10,Oct-11,Apr-12,Jan-09,Jan-10,Jan-11,Jan-12,Jul-12,Jul-12,Jul-09,Jul-10,Jan-09,Jan-10,Jan-11,Jul-11,Apr-09,Apr-10,Apr-11,Jan-12,Oct-09,Oct-10,Oct-11,Apr-12,Oct-12,Oct-12,5
16、 November 2012PropertyChina Prop WeeklyWeekly transaction volumes40 cities total weekly transaction volumesFigure 1:Weekly transaction volumes of the 40 major cities in China,ksqm9,0008,0007,0006,0005,0004,0003,0002,0001,000,1st roundtightening,3rd roundtightening,2nd roundtightening,-Source:Deutsch
17、e Bank,SoufunTier-1 cities weekly transaction volumesFigure 2:Weekly transaction volumes of Tier-1 cities in Chinaksqm3,000,Source:Deutsche Bank,SoufunPage 2,2,5002,0001,5001,000500-,1st roundtightening,2nd roundtightening3rd roundtightening,Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong,Jan-09,Jan-10,Jan-11,Apr-09,Apr
18、-10,Apr-11,Jan-12,Apr-12,Jul-09,Jul-10,Jul-11,Oct-09,Oct-10,Oct-11,Jul-12,Sep-09,Sep-10,Sep-11,Nov-09,Nov-10,Nov-11,Mar-10,Mar-11,Mar-09,Mar-12,Jul-09,Jul-10,Jul-11,May-09,May-10,May-11,May-12,Jan-10,Jan-11,Jan-09,Jan-12,Jul-12,Oct-12,5 November 2012PropertyChina Prop WeeklyTier-2/3 cities weekly tr
19、ansaction volumesFigure 3:Weekly transaction volumes of Tier-2/3 cities in China,ksqm7,0006,0005,0004,0003,0002,000,1st roundtightening,3rd roundtightening,2nd roundtightening,1,000-Source:Deutsche Bank,SoufunPercentages of Tier-1 and Tier-2/3 cities volumesFigure 4:Percentages of Tier-1 and Tier-2/
20、3 cities volumes100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%,Source:Deutsche Bank,SoufunDeutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong,%Tier 1,%Tier 2/3,Page 3,Apr-09,Apr-10,Apr-11,Apr-12,Jul-09,Jul-10,Jul-11,Jul-12,Oct-09,Oct-10,Oct-11,Oct-12,Oct-09,Oct-10,Oct-11,Apr-09,Apr-10,Apr-11,Apr-12,Oct-09,Oct-10,Oct-11,Apr-09,Apr-10,Apr
21、-11,Apr-12,Oct-09,Oct-10,Oct-11,Apr-09,Apr-10,Apr-11,Apr-12,Oct-12,Jan-09,Jan-10,Jan-11,Jan-12,Jul-09,Jul-10,Jul-11,Jul-12,Oct-12,Jan-09,Jan-10,Jan-11,Jan-12,Jul-09,Jul-10,Jul-11,Jul-12,Oct-12,Jan-09,Jan-10,Jan-11,Jan-12,Jan-09,Jan-10,Jan-11,Jan-12,Jul-09,Jul-10,Jul-11,Jul-12,5 November 2012Property
22、China Prop Weekly,Figure 5:Weekly volume Beijing,Figure 6:Weekly volume Shanghai,ksqm700600500400,1st roundtightening,2nd roundtightening,3rd roundtightening,ksqm800700600500,1st roundtightening,2nd roundtightening,3rd roundtightening,300,400300,200100-,Purchaserestriction,200100-,Purchaserestrictio
23、n,Source:Deutsche Bank,SoufunFigure 7:Weekly volume Guangzhouksqm,Source:Deutsche Bank,SoufunFigure 8:Weekly volume Shenzhenksqm,1,200,2nd round,450,1,000800600400,tightening1st roundtightening,Purchaserestriction3rd roundtightening,400350300250200150100,2nd roundtightening1st roundtightening,Purcha
24、serestriction,3rd roundtightening,200-Source:Deutsche Bank,SoufunFigure 9:Cities with top 10 weekly transaction volumes,50-Source:Deutsche Bank,SoufunFigure 10:Cities with top 10 WoW volume changes,Ranking12345678910,CityChongqingChangshaShanghaiWuhanGuangzhouShenyangBeijingChengduGuiyangHangzhou,Vo
25、lume616552473334303286285285278256,WoW13%25%41%2%-1%-12%-7%424%2%29%,Ranking12345678910,CityChengduSanyaLanzhouWenzhouShanghaiNingboXiamenTianjinHangzhouChangsha,WoW424%291%68%59%41%34%32%31%29%25%,Volume(ksqm)2853325474739449250256552,Source:Deutsche Bank,SoufunPage 4,Source:Deutsche Bank,Soufun,De
26、utsche Bank AG/Hong Kong,Oct-09,Oct-10,Oct-11,Apr-09,Apr-10,Apr-11,Apr-12,Oct-12,Jan-09,Jan-10,Jan-11,Jan-12,Jul-09,Jul-10,Jul-11,Jul-12,5 November 2012PropertyChina Prop WeeklyFigure 11:Average weekly ASP for the 40 major cities,Rmb/sqm12,00011,00010,0009,0008,0007,000,1st roundtightening,2nd round
27、tightening,3rd roundtightening,6,0005,000Source:Deutsche Bank,SoufunFigure 12:Average weekly ASP for Tier-1 cities,Rmb/sqm24,00022,00020,00018,00016,00014,00012,00010,0008,000Source:Deutsche Bank,SoufunDeutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong,1st roundtightening,2nd roundtightening,3rd roundtightening,Page 5,Oct-
28、09,Oct-10,Oct-11,Apr-09,Apr-10,Apr-11,Apr-12,Oct-09,Oct-10,Oct-11,Apr-09,Apr-10,Apr-11,Apr-12,Jan-09,Jan-10,Jul-09,Jul-10,Oct-12,Jan-09,Jan-10,Jan-11,Jan-12,Jul-09,Jul-10,Jul-11,Jul-12,Apr-09,Apr-10,Apr-11,Apr-12,Jul-09,Jul-10,Jul-11,Oct-09,Oct-10,Oct-11,Jul-12,Oct-12,Jan-09,Jan-10,Jan-11,Jan-12,Oct
29、-09,Oct-10,Oct-11,Apr-09,Apr-10,Apr-11,Apr-12,Oct-10,Oct-11,Feb-10,Feb-11,Dec-10,Dec-11,Feb-12,Apr-10,Apr-11,Aug-10,Aug-11,Apr-12,Aug-12,Oct-12,Jun-10,Jun-11,Jun-12,Oct-12,Jan-09,Jan-10,Jan-11,Jan-12,Jul-09,Jul-10,Jul-11,Jul-12,Oct-12,Jan-11,Jan-12,Jul-11,Jul-12,5 November 2012PropertyChina Prop Wee
30、klyFigure 13:Average weekly ASP for Tier-2/3 cities,Rmb/sqm11,00010,0009,0008,0007,0006,0005,000Source:Deutsche Bank,SoufunFigure 14:Weekly ASP Beijing,1st roundtightening,3rd roundtightening2nd roundtighteningFigure 15:Weekly ASP Shanghai,Rmb/sqm35,00030,000,1st roundtightening,3rd roundtightening,
31、Rmb/sqm21,00019,00017,000,1st roundtightening,3rd roundtightening,25,00020,000,15,00013,00011,000,15,000,9,000,2nd round,10,0005,000,2nd roundtightening,7,0005,000,tightening,Source:Deutsche Bank,SoufunFigure 16:Weekly ASP GuangzhouRmb/sqm,Source:Deutsche Bank,SoufunFigure 17:Weekly ASP ShenzhenRmb/
32、sqm,15,00014,00013,000,1st roundtightening,3rd roundtightening,35,00030,000,1st roundtightening,3rd roundtightening,12,00011,00010,0009,000,25,00020,00015,000,8,0007,0006,000,2nd roundtightening,10,0005,000,2nd roundtightening,5,000,Source:Deutsche Bank,SoufunPage 6,Source:Deutsche Bank,Soufun,Deuts
33、che Bank AG/Hong Kong,Oct-08,Oct-09,Oct-10,Oct-11,Apr-08,Apr-09,Apr-10,Apr-11,Apr-12,Oct-12,Jan-08,Jan-09,Jan-10,Jan-11,Jan-12,Jul-08,Jul-09,Jul-10,Jul-11,Jul-12,5 November 2012PropertyChina Prop WeeklyFigure 18:Sellable GFA(supply)in major citiesksqm14,00012,00010,0008,0006,0004,0002,000-,Beijing,S
34、hanghai,Shenzhen,Guangzhou,Chongqing,Hangzhou,Source:Deutsche Bank,Soufun,Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong,Page 7,Oct-08,Oct-09,Oct-10,Oct-11,Apr-08,Apr-09,Apr-10,Apr-11,Apr-12,Oct-08,Oct-09,Oct-10,Oct-11,Oct-12,Apr-08,Apr-09,Apr-10,Apr-11,Apr-12,Jan-08,Jan-09,Jan-10,Jan-11,Jan-12,Jul-08,Jul-09,Jul-10,Jul
35、-11,Jul-12,Oct-08,Oct-09,Oct-10,Oct-11,Oct-12,Jan-08,Jan-09,Jan-10,Jan-11,Jan-12,Jul-08,Jul-09,Jul-10,Jul-11,Jul-12,Apr-08,Apr-09,Apr-10,Apr-11,Apr-12,Oct-12,Jan-08,Jan-09,Jan-10,Jan-11,Jan-12,Jul-08,Jul-09,Jul-10,Jul-11,Jul-12,5 November 2012PropertyChina Prop WeeklyFigure 19:Supply/sales ratio of
36、major citiesMonths706050403020100,Beijing,Shanghai,Shenzhen,Guangzhou,Chongqing,Hangzhou,Source:Deutsche Bank,Soufun,Figure 20:Inventory period BeijingMonths6050403020100,Figure 21:Inventory period ShanghaiMonths20181614121086420,Beijing,Beijing Avrg,Shanghai,Shanghai Avrg,Source:Deutsche Bank,Soufu
37、nPage 8,Source:Deutsche Bank,Soufun,Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong,Oct-08,Oct-09,Oct-10,Oct-11,Apr-08,Apr-09,Apr-10,Apr-11,Apr-12,Oct-12,Jan-08,Jan-09,Jan-10,Jan-11,Jan-12,Jul-08,Jul-09,Jul-10,Jul-11,Jul-12,Apr-10,Apr-11,Feb-10,Feb-11,Feb-12,Apr-12,Jun-10,Jun-11,Dec-09,Dec-10,Aug-10,Aug-11,Dec-11,Jun-12
38、,Aug-12,Sep-12,Oct-09,Oct-10,Oct-11,Oct-12,Nov-12,Oct-08,Oct-09,Oct-10,Oct-11,Apr-08,Apr-09,Apr-10,Apr-11,Apr-12,Oct-12,Jan-08,Jan-09,Jan-10,Jan-11,Jan-12,Jul-08,Jul-09,Jul-10,Jul-11,Jul-12,Nov-09,Nov-10,Nov-11,Jan-10,Jan-11,May-10,May-11,Jan-12,May-12,Sep-10,Sep-11,Jul-10,Jul-11,Mar-10,Mar-11,Mar-1
39、2,Jul-12,5 November 2012PropertyChina Prop Weekly,Figure 22:Inventory period ShenzhenMonths50454035302520151050,Figure 23:Inventory period GuangzhouMonths4035302520151050,Shenzhen,Shenzhen Avrg,Guangzhou,Guangzhou Avrg,Source:Deutsche Bank,SoufunFigure 24:Inventory period HangzhouMonths1401201008060
40、40200,Source:Deutsche Bank,SoufunFigure 25:Inventory period NanjingMonths454035302520151050,Source:Deutsche Bank,Soufun,Hangzhou,Hangzhou Avrg,Source:Deutsche Bank,Soufun,Nanjing,Nanjing Avrg,Figure 26:Cities with Home Purchase Restrictions(HPR),Date13-Oct-111-Feb-111-Feb-111-Feb-1116-Feb-1116-Feb-1
41、120-Feb-1121-Feb-1121-Feb-1121-Feb-1121-Feb-1121-Feb-1123-Feb-1123-Feb-11,CityZhoushanQingdaoChangchunShanghaiChengduBeijingNingboShijiazhuangGuiyangWuxiNanjingXiamenWuhanTaiyuan,TierTier 3Tier 2Tier 2Tier 1Tier 2Tier 1Tier 2Tier 2Tier 2Tier 3Tier 2Tier 2Tier 2Tier 2,NoteBoth local and non-local hou
42、seholds can buy one additional home in the city,except for any tourism-related property7 districts(崂山/市南/市北/城阳/黄岛/李沧/四方)N/ACumulative 1 year of local tax/social security proof within last 2 years6 districts(锦江/青羊/金牛/武侯/成华/高新)5 consecutive years of local tax/social security proofN/A5 districts+High T
43、ech Dev district(桥东/新华/桥西/长安/裕华/高新)Within 1st ring road6 districts(崇安/南长/北塘/滨湖(incl.高新区)/惠山/锡山)11 districts(玄武/鼓楼/建邺/白下/秦淮/下关/雨花台/栖霞/浦口/江宁/六合)N/AN/A6 districts(迎泽/杏花岭/万柏林/尖草坪/小店/晋源),Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong,Page 9,Feb11,Oct11,Feb12,Apr11,May11,Apr12,May12,Jul11,Jun11,Jan12,Aug11,Sep11,Nov11,Dec11,
44、Jun12,Jan11,Jul12,Aug12,Oct11,Apr11,Feb11,May11,Feb12,Apr12,May12,Jan11,Jun11,Jan12,Nov11,Dec11,Aug11,Sep11,Jun12,Aug12,Sep12,Mar11,Mar12,Sep12,Mar11,Mar12,Jul11,Jul12,Tier 1,1.0,7.0,5 November 2012PropertyChina Prop Weekly,23-Feb-11 Nanchang24-Feb-11 Yinchuan25-Feb-11 Guangzhou,Tier 2Tier 3,5 distr
45、icts(东湖/西湖/青云谱/湾里/青山湖)Households with 2+homes but GFA per head of less than 43sqm can buy a third home10 main districts(越秀/荔湾/海珠/天河/白云/黄埔/番禺/花都/南沙/萝岗);cumulative 1 year of local tax/social security proofwithin last 2 years,25-Feb-1125-Feb-1128-Feb-1128-Feb-1128-Feb-111-Mar-111-Mar-111-Mar-111-Mar-11
46、1-Mar-112-Mar-112-Mar-114-Mar-115-Mar-115-Mar-117-Mar-118-Mar-119-Mar-1110-Mar-1115-Mar-1118-Mar-1124-Mar-1125-Mar-1128-Mar-1125-Apr-111-May-111-Sep-118-Sep-111-Nov-11,JinanXianHangzhouUrumqiHaikouHohhotHarbinKunmingTianjinNanningFuzhouShenzhenZhengzhouSanyaChangshaSuzhouShenyangLanzhouWenzhouJinhua
47、FoshanHefeiXiningDalianShaoxingXuzhouTaizhou(ZJ)QuzhouZhuhai,Tier 2Tier 2Tier 2Tier 2Tier 3Tier 2Tier 2Tier 3Tier 2Tier 2Tier 2Tier 1Tier 2Tier 3Tier 2Tier 2Tier 2Tier 2Tier 3Tier 3Tier 2Tier 2Tier 3Tier 2Tier 3Tier 3Tier 3Tier 3Tier 3,7 districts 历下/市中/槐荫/天桥/历城/长清/高新;cumulative 1 year of local tax/
48、social security proof within last 2 yearsN/ACumulative 1 year of local tax/social security proof within last 2 yearsN/ACumulative 1 year of local tax/social security proof within last 2 years4 districts(回民/新城/玉泉/赛罕)6 districts(道里/道外/南岗/香坊/平房/松北)4 districts+Chenggong district(五华/盘龙/西山/官渡/呈贡)N/A6 dist
49、ricts(兴宁/青秀/江南/西乡塘/良庆/邕宁);5 districts(台江/鼓楼/仓山/马尾/晋安)1 year of local tax/social security proof,no one-off payment allowed6 districts(中原/二七/金水/惠济/上街/郑东新区)2 districts(河东/河西)5 districts(芙蓉/天心/开福/岳麓/雨花)7 districts(吴中/相城/金阊/平江/沧浪/虎丘/高新);cumulative 1 year of local tax/social security proof within last 2 y
50、ears;Within 2nd ring road(人口密集、房价过高的二环区域内)Cumulative 2 years of local tax/social security proof within last 2 yearsN/A2 districts(婺城/金东)N/A4 districts(瑶海/庐阳/蜀山/包河)4 districts(城东/城中/城西/城北)5 districts(中山/西岗/沙河口/甘井子/高新园区)Shaoxing district(绍兴市区)4 districts(鼓楼/云龙/泉山/新城区);Cumulative 1 year of local tax/so
