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1、9,4.,2013,2013.2.25-2013.3.1,021-S10105101200591.,0755-S1010511040003,2013,3,5,2.,2013,2012/13/14,EPS,1.15/1.43/1.80,1.2/1.52/1.92,30.4,3.,2012/13/14,EPS,0.81/0.78/0.89,0.85/1.10/1.42,2013/14/15 EPS,9.36,0.94/1.05/1.20,2012,EPS 0.85,2013/14,EPS,1.28/1.53,14.1,2020,60%,4,CAGR 12.5%,5%,1.4,740,1.,2020
2、3.,60%,3200,1,2.,9,1,2,2013,2013.2.25-2013.3.1,20132013,2013,2012,2013Q12012EPS,2012,2012Q1,2013Q1 E,2012Q1,2013Q1 E,2012Q1,2013Q1 E,47.6%36.5%73.3%,35%30%40%,35.7%53.4%105.9%,35%30%50%-60%,0.150.540.12,0.21+0.71+0.17-0.20,201320131,35%+26%+45%,5PCT,22.6%,10%,28.4%,0%,0.36,0.36,2013,25%,0%-10%,2013,
3、10%-15%,26.2%,10%-15%,37.7%,15%,0.34,0.40,26.1%,15%,3.5%,-,0.28,-,-,57.7%,10%-15%,46.7%,-,0.09,-,2013,15%,36.3%5.3%,-10%-15%,92.4%6.3%,-20%-30%,0.390.76,-0.68-0.76,-,25%,21.5%,20%,29.8%,20%,0.48,0.57,2013,20%,-9.9%,10%,17.7%,0.16,-,27.2%-15.8%,-,16.9%-38.7%,-10%-,0.240.24,-,-,Wind,2013,2012,EPS,2012
4、Q1,2013Q1 E,2012Q1,2013Q1 E,2012Q1,2013Q1 E,1.45%,-,41.87%,20%-30%,0.04,0.05,-,A,-6.52%,0%,-44.55%,0%-10%,0.11,0.11-0.12,37.37%-4.07%-7.71%-13.34%-,-20%-10%0%-15%0%,64.43%-174.96%-36.42%-64.20%-,0%-35%-25%0%0%,0.14-0.020.070.06-,0.14-0.04-0.050.03-0.04-,-,20122012,Wind1,9,2013,2013.2.25-2013.3.12013
5、,133,2012VIP,SAP,34%,20132012,55%,63%201210%-15%,2012,2012/13/14 EPS,1.15/1.43/1.80,1.2/1.52/1.92,30.4,2013 20 PE,2013201210%+,1.,4.,3.2013,15%15%,25%,2.22%32%30%+,41%,201323%,2012/13/14,EPS,0.81/0.78/0.89,0.85/1.10/1.42,1.,9.36,2013 12 PE,2.,201220,2013,5.6,26.6%,78.8%28.62013/14/15,EPS,0.94/1.05/1
6、.2014.1,2012 EPS 0.852013 15 PE,2013/14,EPS 1.28/1.53,MB,1.,3.MC,2.2,9,/,/,/,/,2013,2013.2.25-2013.3.1,1932611400,0.15%-2.15%,CF305 1998015000,0.00%,0.20%,1%,20128.26,1%13%13%,2012,56.73,0.2pct 58.7%,2012,14.4%,21.5%,2012,76.2,14.4%,13.59,21.5%,4.3pct,38%,13,51,2013,4.64,2013,2012,12,31,135.54,18.8%
7、,53.56,20.4%,8700,6.86,85.3%0.2pct,45.2%51%,81.02,11.8%,17.7%,8%,2013,42%,2013,2012,12,31,13.34,5050.6,3409.1,42%,Gap2012,10%61%,2012,2013,2,2,47.3,10%,3.51,61%3%Old Navy,5%,8%,4%,2%,300,2.58%,-0.87%,-2.27%,3,9,2013,1,2013.2.25-2013.3.1,8.06.0,%,5.3,5.7,6.5,4.0,2.0,0.4,0.7,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.2,1.5,1.8,0.
8、0,(2.0),-1.3-1.3-1.0,-0.7,(4.0)(6.0),-4.8-4.4,-4.1-3.8,-3.4-3.2,-2.7,-3.2-2.9,(8.0),-6.3Wind,201246004600,3,4,4190,4.17%,3173,3.36%2013,2 27,2012,8220,365,4.40%,5,102014 20152012 2014 201548,800530%30%40%,11%12%,9.8313%,201210%25%,201340%12,4,9,2013,CEO,2013.2.25-2013.3.1,+ZARA,+ZARA,ZARA30,16,185,G
9、ucci30%2012,2012,2013,PPR,2013,Gucci,LVMHBurberry RichemontKappa21,2,27,Lanvin Versace MMM2013,H&M,H&M,H&M,H&M,H&M,1.,2013,3.,2.,5,9,3,2013,2012,2013.2.25-2013.3.1,2011n,2012n,32.961.214.573.673.736.949.636.231.046.432.623.420.817.910.541.633.0,%,45.651.738.698.890.767.769.262.055.321.959.122.358.2-
10、0.9-9.730.125.3,%,18.911.42.846.746.637.933.622.214.7-3.6-4.4-9.3-0.416.628.19.1-8.6,%,36.730.7-27.858.957.653.210.626.11.5-47.9-29.6-38.2-22.0-43.6-34.91.9-24.0,%,Wind,4,2012,2011n,2012n,6.85.723.424.813.820.510.625.616.72.623.0,%,9.6-23.444.819.517.716.74.877.6-18.721.515.4,%,12.4-4.1-2.0-5.310.30
11、.7-13.5-7.3-3.2-10.220.5,%,-76.5-14.1-24.5-46.017.0-13.857.9-18.3-39.3-44.018.2,%,Wind5,11N,EPS12E,13E,14E,11N,12E,PE,13E,14E,PEG,PB,24.9742.6915.854.7438.2051.5316.7317.9820.099.2227.4313.0613.9121.434.26,0.601.090.300.201.292.660.890.821.140.621.040.741.201.830.49,0.951.750.480.271.622.701.171.121
12、.280.811.150.390.851.130.11,1.302.190.720.352.032.931.251.331.550.781.430.470.941.280.16,1.882.901.010.442.533.731.611.711.860.891.800.521.051.550.30,42395223301919221815261812129,262433182419141616112433161939,191922141918131413121928151727,131516111514101111101525131414,0.650.850.730.630.941.090.8
13、20.680.762.360.952.161.471.110.59,4.0313.939.222.644.964.382.434.596.842.552.571.813.391.851.19,6,9,2013,2013.2.25-2013.3.1,8.43,11N1.27,EPS12E0.34,13E0.53,14E0.61,11N7,12E25,PE,13E16,14E14,PEG,PB1.1,10.34,0.78,0.65,0.78,0.89,13,16,13,12,0.93,1.61,6,Wind,2011-2013,2013,3,1,2011,2011,2012,2012,2013,2
14、013,20%15%-,30%+30%+-,30%30%30%,25%-30%30%20%,10%-15%15%0%-10%,-,8%-10%80%,90%50%60%,26.5%,28%34%,28.5%,16%11.5%,-10%,LILANZL2,17%,9%,85%-90%,-,-,-,-,-,-,66%70%-,93%70%-,66%60%50%30%,60.65%60%-30%+,50.5%40%-26%,35%2,2013-,10%-15%,90%90%25%90%,30%+,60%,10%-20%,25%,70%+,35%30%+-,55%44%-,40%40%+20%-30%
15、,25%-30%N/A20%,20%20%-30%-,-,30%,75%-55%,-,-,30%,20%,-,-,-,90%,7,2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2,2011Q3,2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2,2012Q3,2012Q4,2013Q1,12%,15%,20%,20%,12%,-6%,-9%-5%,-,5%,0%,-,-,18%16%22%,16%21%20%,18%22%23%,25%23%25%,23%-23%,21%3%25%,20%-24%,25%-24%,5%-21%,0%-5%,-10%-5%-,-10%-1
16、5%-,-20%-30%-15%-20%,361,30%+,30%+,23%,31%,20%,20%,23%,27%,23%,23%,6%,2%20%,-,0%,N/A,35%,34%,31%,25%,24%,24%,21%,-25%,-25%,-25%,-20%-30%,5%,-5%0%8,12E,EPS,13E,14E,12E,PE13E,14E,PEG,1880 HK210 HK1028HK1836HK3818 HK2331 HK2020 HK1910 HK589 HK,14.469.562.8221.901.084.577.4718.386.67,0.690.550.201.420.0
17、6-0.300.680.940.81,0.820.670.251.580.060.110.521.110.92,0.950.80.321.810.070.300.531.280.94,211714151911208,18141114174114167,1512912161514147,1.020.690.431.091.860.970.89,7,9,A,2013,2013.2.25-2013.3.1,12E,EPS,13E,14E,12E,PE13E,14E,PEG,999 HK330 HK709 HK3998 HK891 HK1234 HK,I.T,3.3710.087.782.334.50
18、4.69,0.380.480.460.220.330.68,0.350.10.520.220.370.66,0.430.450.580.240.420.77,9211711147,101011510127,8221310116,1.411.222.720.951.16,1698 HK,1.68,0.25,0.32,7,5,321 HK,7.46,0.88,0.44,0.66,8,17,11,551 HK2313 HK,26.4520.80,2.401.66,2.641.95,2.872.32,1113,1011,99,1.090.59,Bloomberg,2013,3,1,EPS,9,2012
19、,2013-02-282013-02-282013-03-062013-03-152013-03-262013-03-272013-04-022013-04-032013-04-092013-04-122013-04-122013-04-162013-04-172013-04-192013-04-202013-04-202013-04-222013-04-23,2013-02-262013-02-262013-03-162013-03-222013-03-222013-03-262013-03-292013-03-292013-03-292013-04-122013-04-162013-04-
20、192013-04-192013-04-202013-04-232013-04-232013-04-232013-04-23,2013-04-242013-04-26Wind8,-,“,”,Analyst CertificationiiiThe analysts primarily responsible for the preparation of all or part of the research report contained herein hereby certify that:(i)the views expressed in this research report accu
21、rately reflect the personal views of each such analyst about the subject securities and issuers;and(ii)no part of the analysts compensation was,is,or will be directly or indirectly,related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in thisresearch report.“”,/,(,),(1),(2)/20131,300,20%,6,300,
22、5%,20%,2,6300,6300,300300300300300,-10%5%10%10%-10%10%10%,48,1568,8,1,100125,22,200122,518048,26,Foreign Broker-Dealer Disclosures for Distributing to the U.S.This report has been produced in its entirety by CITIC Securities Limited Company(“CITIC Securities”,regulated by the China Securities Regula
23、toryCommission.Securities Business License Number:Z20374000).This report is being distributed in the United States by CITIC Securities pursuant to Rule15a-6(a)(2)under the U.S.Securities Exchange Act of 1934 exclusively to“major U.S.institutional investors”as defined in Rule 15a-6 and the SEC no-action,letters thereunder.,Z20374000,1934“,”,15a-6(a)(2),15a-6,
