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1、2012,2012,Deutsche BankMarkets Research,Europe,PeriodicalGerman&Austrian,Date29 November 2012,EquitiesAndreas Neubauer,DVFA,Daily Newsflow,Head of Research(+49)69 910-,DAX:Company updates published Nov 28-29 2012 6.30am CETSiemens(SIEGn.DE),EUR78.94 Sell Price Target EUR65.00A small step in the righ
2、t directionATX:Company updates published Nov 28-29 2012 6.30am CETRaiffeisen Bank Intl.(RBIV.VI),EUR31.51 Hold Price Target EUR28.50A mixed result in 3Q12;no major change seen short-termTelekom Austria(TELA.VI),EUR5.09 Buy Price Target EUR6.70Austrian consolidation likely to go ahead;terms for TKA s
3、till unclearMid-&SmallCap:Company updates published Nov 28-29 2012 6.30am CETGSW Immobilien(GIBG.DE),EUR32.14 Buy Price Target EUR35.00,Related recent researchGerman Stock IdeasAndreas NeubauerAustrian Stock IdeasMatthias PfeifenbergerToPPiX-German StrategyLars SlomkaGerman Stock IdeasAndreas Neubau
4、erUpcoming eventsBertrandt AGAnnual financial statementWincor Nixdorf AGAnnual financial statementPrime Office REITRoadshowKWS Saat AGAnnual General Meeting,Date27-Jan-1206-Jan-1206-Dec-1101-Dec-11Date06 December201207 December11 December201213 December,We raise our 2013E FFO by 8%and expect consens
5、us also to adjustKontron AG(KBCG.DE),EUR3.41 Hold Price Target EUR3.70Feedback from CMDMTU(MTXGn.DE),EUR66.59 Buy Price Target EUR68.00Capital Markets Day HighlightsTom Tailor(TTIGn.DE),EUR15.95 Buy Price Target EUR19.00Encouraging capital markets dayINDUSTRY:Sector updates published Nov 28-29 2012
6、6.30am CETEuropean Chemicals-Update on current demand trends in basic chemicals_Deutsche Bank AG/LondonDeutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports.Thus,investors shouldbe aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectiv
7、ity of this report.Investors shouldconsider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.DISCLOSURES AND ANALYSTCERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.MICA(P)072/04/2012.,29 November 2012German&Austrian EquitiesEuropean Equity Research Analysts German&Austrian UniverseHe
8、ad of German&Austrian Equity Research,Andreas NeubauerStrategists,+49 69 910 31900,Lars SlomkaAustrian StocksChristian BaderMatthias PfeifenbergerAutomobileJochen GehrkeGaetan ToulemondeTim RokossaBanksAlexander Hendricks,CFAFlora BenhakounCementLuis Prieto BartolomeChemicalsTim JonesMartin Dunwoodi
9、eVirginie Boucher-FerteConstructionMatthias PfeifenbergerMichael KuhnConsumerMichael KuhnHarold ThompsonJamie IsenwaterRod WhiteheadGunnar RomerFinancial servicesAlexander Hendricks,CFAIndustrialsPeter Reilly,+49 69 910 31942+43 1 53181 156+43 1 53181 153+49 69 910 31949+33 14 495 6668+49 69 910 319
10、98+49 69 910 31928+49 69 910 31962+44(20)754-50791+44 20 754 76763+44 20 754 72852+44 20 75457940+43 1 53181 153+49 69 910 36642+49 69 910 36642+44 20 754 51886+44 20 754 75170+44 20 754 58492+49 69 910 31917+49 69 910 31928+44 20 754 59835,Jan RabeInsuranceSpencer HorganMediaPatrick KirbyPharma&Hea
11、lthcareHolger BlumGunnar RomerReal EstateMarkus ScheuflerRetailJames CollinsSemiconductorsKai KorscheltSoftwareMark BraleySolar TechnologyAlexander KarnickKatja FilzekTechnologyBenjamin KohnkeUwe Schupp,CFATelecommunicationMatthew Bloxham,CFATransportation&LogisticsAndy ChuSimon ChampionUtilitiesAle
12、xander Karnick,+49 69 910 31813+44 20 754 56727+44 20 754 73560+49 69 910 31912+49 69 910 31917+49 69 910 31739+44 20 754 54252+44 20 754 58569+44(20)754-59904+49 69 910 31945+49 69 910 31955+49 69 910 31943+49 69 910 31955+44 20 754 58163+44 20 754 77650+44 20 754 51983+49 69 910 31945,Bastian Syna
13、gowitzBen FidlerPage2,+49 69 910 36126+44 20 754 54138,Deutsche Bank AG/London,29 November 2012German&Austrian Equities,Siemens,Sell,A small step in the right direction,Reuters:SIEGn.DE,Exchange:GER,Ticker:SIEGn,Price(EUR)Price target(EUR)52-week range(EUR)Market cap(EUR)(m),78.9465.0080.27-63.0667,
14、158.2,Buying Invensys Rail,Selling baggage handlingSiemens has announced that it plans to buy the Invensys Rail business and sell itsbaggage handling and postal/package sorting business.The Rail acquisition issubject to regulatory and Invensys shareholder approval and the divestment process,FYE 9/30
15、,2012A,2013E,2014E,is not well advanced.Unusually,it is the same division,Transportation&Logistics,Revenue(EURm),78,295 78,609 81,166,that is doing both deals.,DB PBT(EURm)Stated PBT(EURm)DB EPS(EUR)DPS(EUR)P/E(DB EPS)(x),9,0617,2807.943.009.1,8,1496,6957.123.0011.1,9,4548,6008.023.209.8,Acquisition
16、 price seems reasonableIn our last Invensys review,we estimated central case fair value for Rail at 1,761m.Siemens is paying 1,742m,so we regard the price as fair.The divestment proceedsfor baggage handling will likely be much lower;we estimate 300-400m.So overall,Siemens is likely to pay about 1.8b
17、n for incremental EBIT of about 90m.InvensysRail has had its problems but we regard it as a sensible strategic fit for T&L.,Revenue neutral,margin accretiveBoth businesses have revenues of about 900m but Rail has a 15%margin andbaggage handling has a 5%margin.This will lift the Transportation&Logist
18、icsmargin by about 150bp but the group effect is much smaller at about 10bp.Charges possible at T&LAccording to press reports(e.g.WSJ 22 Nov),Deutsche Bahn is seekingcompensation for late delivery of trains from Siemens.We are also concerned aboutpotential risks in the high profile 5bn-plus ICX cont
19、ract.It is not possible to estimatepotential future charges with any accuracy but this is a reminder that T&L is not oneof the more reliable profit contributors inside Siemens.No changes to forecasts or target priceAlthough we welcome the deals,they are too small to have an impact on either ourforec
20、asts or our target price.In our recent report we highlighted“early and effectiveaction on divestments”as a key risk to our Sell case.This is a relatively small dealbut material further progress on divestments would lead us to review the targetprice.,Deutsche Bank AG/London,Peter Reilly(+44)20 754-,M
21、artin Wilkie(+44)20 754-,Page3,29 November 2012German&Austrian Equities,Raiffeisen Bank Intl.,Hold,A mixed result in 3Q12;no major change seen short-term,Reuters:RBIV.VI,Exchange:VIE,Ticker:RBIV,Price(EUR)Price target(EUR)52-week range(EUR)Market cap(EUR),31.5128.5033.36-16.466,160,No loan growth-li
22、mited profit growthRBIs 3Q12 results reflect margin pressure and ongoing credit quality weakness asloan development lags expectations.Our Hold rating reflects the companys strongpositioning in Eastern Europe,especially for a Western European bank in Russia,but,FYE 12/31Revenue(EUR)PBT(EUR)Stated Net
23、Profit(EUR)EPS Adjusted(EUR)Dividend Yield(%)P/E Adjusted(x),2011A5,5571,5237684.693.34.3,2012E5,3191,3047803.523.38.9,2013E5,3751,3087944.063.57.8,also takes into account its presence in countries like Hungary and Croatia,which lookmore vulnerable from an economic perspective,and a capitalization t
24、hat lookssomewhat light in an international context,also referencing its regional footprint.3Q12 net profit E141m,pre-tax ROE 6.8%,cost-income 64%,CT1 ratio 7.2%RBI reported 3Q12 pre-tax profit of E188m,in line with our forecast;however,whilefee income and loan losses were better than expected,inter
25、est income and costsmissed forecasts.In the absence of lending growth,credit quality slightlydeteriorated;net interest income development disappoints.Some one-off cost itemsburdened results,overall performance in 3Q12 was mixed.,EPS estimates reduced 2%for 2012,10%for 2013 and 2014We reduce adjusted
26、 EPS estimates to E3.52 for 2012,E4.06 for 2013,and E4.55 for2014.We now forecast RBI to earn sub 11%ROE until 2014,below its estimatedCOE.In our view,growth in lending is required to alter the earnings trend,as thisshould result in better margins,improved credit quality,higher efficiency.As theongo
27、ing economic uncertainty in the euro area is likely to limit growth opportunitiesin Eastern Europe,we dont expect this to be a topic during the coming quarters andretain our Hold recommendation.Discount to book value reflects current profitability level and short-term outlookWe value RBI based on a
28、SOTP approach,using our estimates for FY2013.Forecasting individual business segment profits and equity consumption,andapplying business-specific assumptions on long-term growth prospects as well asCOE,we compute target P/B multiples;these are directly derived from a constantgrowth DDM.The main comp
29、any-specific risk factors include the profit contributionfrom its largest CESEE operations,largely a function of lending volumes and riskcosts.An important risk stems from an increase in regulatory costs,a possible capitalincrease for early compliance with fully-loaded Basel 3 rules/participation ca
30、pitalrepayment,and weakening CEE currencies that reduce credit quality of FX loans.Upside risk relates to a reversion of negative loan growth and quick normalization ofloan lossesAlexander Hendricks(+49)69 910-,Page4,Deutsche Bank AG/London,29 November 2012German&Austrian Equities,Telekom Austria,Bu
31、y,Reuters:TELA.VIAustrian consolidation likely to go ahead;terms for TKA still unclear,Exchange:VIE,Ticker:TELA,Price(EUR)Price target(EUR)52-week range(EUR)Market cap(EUR),5.096.709.29-4.552,254.0,Acquisition of Yesss can go aheadThe Austrian Cartel Court has decided that TKA can proceed with the a
32、cquisition ofYesss,without conditions.,FYE 12/31Revenue(EURm)DB PBT(EURm)Stated PBT(EURm)DB EPS(EUR)DPS(EUR)P/E(DB EPS)(x),2010A4,6512422421.020.769.9,2011E4,455-254-2540.520.389.8,2012E4,1761511510.330.0515.5,The acquisition is obviously conditional on the EU giving the green light toHutchisons acq
33、uisition of Orange,which looks very likely(a meeting was held todayand the final answer is expected on 21 December this year).At this stage,therefore,there seems a high likelihood of consolidation going ahead which would addE0.3/share to our TKA target price,assuming Yesss is bought by TKA for E390m
34、.Austrian consolidation could be worth more than E0.3 per TKA shareIf consolidation goes ahead without TKA buying Yesss,we estimate it could add overE1/share to our target price.This now relies on the Austrian Federal Competition,Authority and the Federal Cartel Attorney appealing against todays dec
35、ision withinthe next four weeks.If they decide to appeal,in our view TKA could withdraw fromits acquisition(starting from 31 January 2013).If not,TKA will buy Yesss.We see the latter as a more“pale blue”sky scenario because the cash out implied bythe acquisition of Yesss(E390m)may bring TKA above it
36、s 2.5x debt/EBITDA targetshould spectrum costs rise significantly.However we are not overly concerned about this scenario because:1)spectrum auction is unlikely to be held ahead of September 2013,which givestime to TKA to prepare an adequate financing plan in case it was needed,2)a three-player mark
37、et should imply more rationality in the spectrum auction,ratherthan a four-player market,3)TKA does not necessarily need to stick to its portfolio of assets:althoughmanagement said on the call disposals are not considered because there are nobetter places to put money,we believe putting money in Yes
38、ss+spectrum(i.e.pursuing consolidation and growth)would create more value than some of TKAsadditional markets.,Deutsche Bank AG/London,Carola Bardelli(+39),Matthew Bloxham(+44)20 754-,Page5,29 November 2012German&Austrian Equities,GSW Immobilien,Buy,Reuters:GIBG.DEWe raise our 2013E FFO by 8%and exp
39、ect consensus also to adjust,Exchange:GER,Ticker:GIBG,Price(EUR)Price target(EUR)52-week range(EUR)Market cap(EUR)(m),32.1235.0032.12-21.021,623.2,We increase our forecast on the back of the recent acquisitionsPost 3Q12 results release and last weeks acquisition we have fine tuned ourestimates.We ra
40、ise our 2013E FFO(ex sales)forecast by c.8%on the back of thetwo recently announced acquisitions(c.7,000 units)and our anticipation of 2,000,FYE 12/31DB EPS(EUR)P/E(x)DPS(EUR)Yield(%)NAV Per Share(EUR),2011A1.3816.20.904.030,2012E1.2625.50.822.630,2013E1.6020.01.043.232,more acquisitions by mid-2013
41、E(at similar yields).The latter plus the announcementof the 2013E Berlin Mietspiegel which we expect by mid-year should help FFO(exsales)grow by about 27%yoy(2012-13E).The company currently guides for E61-64m 2012E FFO(ex sales)and an acquisition effect for next years FFO of c.E14.5-15.5m.We expect
42、2013 consensus upgrades before FY results season,Reuters consensus currently looks for a E0.97/share dividend and E1.49/share FFO(ex sales)in 2013E.If we simplistically assume a 3%operational FFO increase(topline growth)to this years mid-point of the guidance(E62.5m)and add the mid-point of the FFO
43、impact from acquisitions(E15m)we expect consensus to upgradeits FFO number by at least 5%(or 8%to our forecast).Outlook and stock implicationsWe remain bullish on the German residential case,especially Berlin.We expectfurther accretive acquisitions from GSW,which should drive mid-term FFO growthand
44、consequently dividends.In addition we see upside potential in EPRA NAVcoming from yield compression on the market.While we think there could be someshorter-term weakness in the share price,we retain our our 12-month Buy rating.,Page6,Markus Scheufler(+44)20 754-,Martin Allen(+44)20 754-,Deutsche Ban
45、k AG/London,29 November 2012German&Austrian Equities,Kontron AG,Hold,Feedback from CMD,Reuters:KBCG.DE,Exchange:GER,Ticker:KBCG,Price(EUR)Price target(EUR)52-week range(EUR)Market cap(EUR)(m),3.413.706.55-3.16189.8,Overall thoughtsKBC hosted its annual CMD at SPS IPC Drives,a major trade fair for in
46、dustrialautomation in Nuremberg earlier today.In hindsight timing was slightly unfortunateas the new CEO Rolf Schwirz who joins KBC from Fujitsu will start in early December,FYE 12/31Revenue(EURm)DB PBT(EURm)Stated PBT(EURm)DB EPS(EUR)DPS(EUR)P/E(DB EPS)(x),2011A59033330.390.2017.9,2012E546-12-12-0.
47、16-0.05,2013E56519190.240.0814.2,and,hence,was not present today.Key focus of the CMD was to give more clarityand detail on the recently launched restructuring program SHAPE.It became prettyobvious that the company&management have spent significant resources on thisover the last months.In a nutshell
48、 SHAPE is more about optimizing channels,becoming quicker in time-to-impact and raising R&D efficiency.In contrast it is notabout major plant closures or employee reductions(although there could bedisposals of peripheral activities that do not fit into the new business unit structure).The main reaso
49、n for SHAPE is expected macro softness in general and pressure on,government spending(40%of revs,directly and indirectly)in particular.SHAPE details(1)The management approach will move from legal entities to global Business Unitswith the intention to make the company faster in all aspects;(2)Increas
50、e revenuefrom indirect channels(distributors,VARs,system integrators)by offering relativelymore standardized products;(3)Moving up the value chain by increased R(3)Structurally themove towards ARM-based architectures should benefit KBCs gross margins assoftware and overall system architecture is mor
