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1、RetailSector零售业,FlashNote,GTJAResearch国泰君安研究,Flash Note:Retail Sector快讯：零售业,Frank Xu 许智程+86 755 2397 6725,9 August 2012CPI Up 1.8%,Retail Sales Up 13.1%YoY In July.7月CPI同比上升1.8%,零售总额同比上升13.1%。NBSC announced July 2012 statistical data.CPI for the month grew 1.8%YoY,0.1 ppt higher than the marketconse
2、nsus figure compiled by Bloomberg.In more detail,CPI for urban areas went up by 1.9%and rural areas wentup by 1.5%.At the same time,CPI for food and non-food categories increased by 2.4%and 1.5%YoY,respectively.Consumer price in July recorded a month-on-month rise of 0.1%,higher than Junes figure of
3、-0.6%.The rise in theConsumer price was mainly attributable to the sequential increase in the price level of residence,which recorded amonth-on-month price increase of 0.5 ppt compared with June.It is widely expected that the food price,especially theprice of meat poultry we believe the growth of re
4、tail sales will be maintained in the short to mid term.Although the companies of the retail sector have underperformed,the situation is gradually improving.For theretail sector,the sales data of June showed some improvement and the data of July is expected to continue the recoveryprocess.Consumer se
5、ntiment dropped and the sector is lacking any real positive catalysts,therefore we do not expect anobvious rebound in the short term.However expectations of economic recovery have risen and macro favourable policiesare about to become effective,plus the sector is defensive and current valuation is a
6、ttractive.We believe the downsiderisk is limited and maintain our“Outperform”rating for the sector.From the perspective of costs,we believe departmentstores are more likely to perform better than supermarkets.For more details of sector companies,please refer to ourresearch reports.国家统计局公布了12年7月的统计数据
7、。7月CPI同比升1.8%，升幅较彭博财经统计的市场预期高0.1个百分点。具体来看，城镇CPI上涨1.9%，乡村CPI上涨1.5%。食品与非食品类别分别上涨2.4%及1.5%。7月份全国居民消费价格指数环比上升0.1%，高于6月份0.6%的环比跌幅。价格指数上升的主要原因是居住价格的环比上涨，其价格较6月份上涨了0.5个百分点。市场普遍预计食品价格，尤其是肉禽及其制品和粮食价格已接近市场底部，食品价格和整体物价指数可能会在未来小幅反弹，但仍预计通胀水平在年内会保持在温和的范围内，而大多数消费类股票将受益于温和通胀环境。12年7月，社会消费品零售总额为人民币16,315亿元，同比名义升13.1%
8、，较彭博财经统计的市场预期值低0.4个百分点。7月社会消费品零售总额的实际增速为12.2%，较6月份的增速上升0.1个百分点。具体来看，城镇与乡村分别升13.1%及13.6%。限额以上企业商品零售额同比增长13.0%。与12年6月份相比，体育、娱乐类商品零售额的同比涨幅录得5.3个百分点的显著上升至9.5%，伦敦奥运会以及暑假的开始是主要的刺激因素。总体来讲，最新的消费者信心指数出现下滑，在通胀趋向温和的预期下，我们相信零售增长在短中期内应能会大致被维持。虽然零售行业内公司前期表现低迷，但是情况正在逐渐转好。对零售行业而言，6月份的销售数据表现出一定程度的好转，预计7月份销,See the l
9、ast page for disclaimer,Page 1 of 6,9August2012,FlashNote,RetailSector零售业,售情况恢复过程还在继续。消费者情绪有所反复，而且行业缺乏实质利好，所以短期内出现明显反弹的可能性不大；但结合经济恢复的预期及宏观利好政策的释放，外加零售股的防守性特点及估值回落，下行风险有限，维持对行业跑赢大市的评级。结合成本而言，我们认为百货子板块的反弹性较超市更好。欲了解更多行业内公司的详情，请参阅我们的研究报告。Table-1:Consumer Peers Comparison of Guotai Junan International Co
10、verage,Company,PE,PB,ROE(%),D/Y(%),EV/EBITDA,Stock Code,Currency,Last price,11A,12F,13F,14F,11A,12F,13F,14F,12F,12F,12F,China Foods LtdChina Yurun Food Group LtdChina Mengniu Dairy CoTingyi(Cayman Isln)Hldg CoUni-President China HoldingsChina Modern Dairy HoldingsHengan Intl Group Co LtdVinda Intern
11、ational HoldingsSun Art Retail Group LtdWumart Stores Inc-HLianhua Supermarket Hldgs-HIntime Department StoreGolden Eagle Retail GroupParkson Retail Group LtdAnta Sports Products LtdLi Ning Co LtdXtep International HoldingsPeak Sport Products LtdBelle International HoldingsPorts Design LtdChina Lila
12、ng LtdBosideng Intl Hldgs LtdActive Group Holdings LtdHome Inns&Hotels Manag-Adr7 Days Group Holdings Lt-AdrChina Lodging Group-Spon AdsSimple Average,506 HK1068 HK2319 HK322 HK220 HK1117 HK1044 HK3331 HK6808 HK1025 HK980 HK1833 HK3308 HK3368 HK2020 HK2331 HK1368 HK1968 HK1880 HK589 HK1234 HK3998 HK
13、1096 HKHMIN USSVN USHTHT US,HKDHKDHKDHKDHKDHKDHKDHKDHKDHKDHKDHKDHKDHKDHKDHKDHKDHKDHKDHKDHKDHKDHKDUSDUSDUSD,7.285.9322.9519.247.162.1371.5512.689.6415.027.447.9615.227.184.514.602.491.3014.567.945.392.250.9021.739.8913.1211.54,26.110.316.240.543.538.333.623.039.428.614.415.021.419.310.813.64.54.521.8
14、12.510.611.87.443.926.547.822.5,22.98.620.028.826.920.824.818.132.020.810.913.918.013.56.516.55.04.320.88.17.810.46.126.516.930.516.9,17.76.115.523.621.612.520.114.626.217.410.011.914.911.67.411.75.14.017.57.26.710.24.616.512.419.213.3,14.64.412.919.217.48.616.911.822.214.68.910.012.410.17.08.34.83.
15、914.96.75.89.73.513.09.914.911.0,2.51.22.38.12.02.17.23.05.05.32.72.05.74.12.91.51.10.94.83.03.02.22.01.92.32.43.1,2.70.62.65.72.71.66.53.24.74.71.91.84.52.81.31.11.00.54.41.82.12.01.31.61.82.12.6,2.40.62.35.12.51.55.82.74.24.11.71.73.72.41.31.00.90.53.81.61.81.91.11.51.61.92.3,2.20.52.04.42.21.25.1
16、2.33.63.51.61.53.12.11.20.90.80.43.31.51.61.80.91.41.41.72.0,12.58.813.721.610.68.826.919.114.722.017.913.526.521.821.46.221.412.722.823.429.419.924.56.311.46.517.1,1.53.51.11.90.90.02.51.41.22.13.23.01.63.39.72.09.77.41.57.57.27.05.00.00.00.03.2,11.55.49.612.614.717.817.712.613.39.60.810.511.98.23.
17、05.52.4n.a.13.94.24.36.9n.a.7.44.98.79.1,Weighted Average,20.27,28.7,22.6,18.4,15.4,4.9,4.2,3.7,3.2,#,19.5,#,2.2,12.2,Source:Bloomberg,Guotai Junan International.,See the last page for disclaimer,Page 2 of 6,9August2012,FlashNote,RetailSector零售业,Table-2:Breakdown of CPI,Jul-12,Jan-July 2012,Category
18、CPIUrbanRuralFood-Grain-Oil-Meat Poultry&Related Products-Egg Product-Aquatic Products-Fresh Vegetables-Fresh FruitsNon-Food-Tobacco,liquors&article-Clothing-Household facility,article&maintenance service-Medicine,medical care&personal article-Transportation&communication-Recreational,educational cu
19、ltural article&services-Residence,YoY(%)1.81.91.52.43.05.9(6.1)(6.5)6.78.08.71.53.13.31.91.8(0.9)0.42.1,YoY(%)3.13.13.06.24.15.86.5(6.3)10.018.2(3.0)1.63.43.52.22.3(0.1)0.21.9,Source:National Bureau of Statistics of China,Guotai Junan International.Table-3:Breakdown of Retail Sales,Jul-12,Jan-July 2
20、012,CategoryAggregate retail sales:-Retail sales of above designated size enterprise-Urban-RuralRestaurant&cateringCommercial retailing-Grain&oil-Clothing-Cosmetics-Gold,Silver&Jewellery-Daily Use Goods-Sport&Recreational Goods-Household Electric&Video Appliance-Chinese&Western Medicine-Cultural&Off
21、ice Goods-Furniture-Communication Appliance-Petroleum&Related Product-Automobile-Construction&Decoration Material,YoY(%)13.113.013.113.612.713.216.818.415.114.018.29.58.925.918.926.426.311.34.725.5,YoY(%)14.214.614.214.313.114.317.117.016.216.316.86.64.124.319.625.335.516.78.525.8,Source:National Bu
22、reau of Statistics of China,Guotai Junan International.,See the last page for disclaimer,Page 3 of 6,9August2012,FlashNote,RetailSector零售业,Figure-1:Correlation Between CPI and Money Supply(%),Figure-2:Correlation of Different Price Indexes(%),4540,CPIYoY,M1YoY,M2YoY,15,CPI YoY,PPI YoY,RPI YoY,353025
23、201510505Source:National Bureau of Statistics of China,The Peoples Bank of China,Guotai JunanInternational.Figure-3:Retail Sales of Consumer Goods YoY Growth,Nominal and Real Value(%),1050-5-10Source:National Bureau of Statistics of China,CEIC,Guotai Junan International.Figure-4:Consumer Sentiments(
24、%),28,125,Consumer confidence index,23,Nominal RS,Real RS,120115,Consumer satisfactory indexConsumer expectation index,181383Source:National Bureau of Statistics of China,Guotai Junan International.Figure-5:Government Monthly Individual Income TaxYoY Growth(%),1101051009590Source:CEIC,Guotai Junan I
25、nternational.Figure-6:Disposable Income Per Capita of UrbanHousehold YoY(%),6858483828188,Individual Income Tax yoy growth,25.020.015.010.05.0,YoY,-2,-12Source:CEIC,Guotai Junan International.See the last page for disclaimer,0.0Source:CEIC,Guotai Junan International.,Page 4 of 6,9August2012,FlashNot
26、e,RetailSector零售业,Figure-7:Weekly Pork Prices35,Figure-8:China PMI Index(%)75.0,302520151050,RMB/kg,China Agriculture Products PorkWholesale Spot PriceChina Average Price of Food in 50 Cities-Pork Belly Meat,70.065.060.055.050.045.040.035.0,Manufacturing,Source:CEIC,Guotai Junan International.See th
27、e last page for disclaimer,Source:CEIC,Guotai Junan International.,Page 5 of 6,9August2012,FlashNote,RetailSector零售业,(1),(2),(3),(4),Company Rating DefinitionThe Benchmark:Hong Kong Hang Seng IndexTime Horizon:6 to 18 months,RatingBuyAccumulateNeutralReduceSell,DefinitionRelative Performance 15%;or
28、the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is favorable.Relative Performance is 5%to 15%;or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is favorable.Relative Performance is-5%to 5%;or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is neutral.Relative Performance is-5%to-15%;or the funda
29、mental outlook of the company or sector is unfavorable.Relative Performance-15%;,or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is unfavorable.Sector Rating DefinitionThe Benchmark:Hong Kong Hang Seng IndexTime Horizon:6 to 18 months,RatingOutperformNeutralUnderperform,DefinitionRelative Perfor
30、mance 5%;or the fundamental outlook of the sector is favorable.Relative Performance is-5%to 5%;or the fundamental outlook of the sector is neutral.Relative Performance-5%;,or the fundamental outlook of the sector is unfavorable.DISCLOSURE OF INTERESTSThe Analysts and their associates do not serve as
31、 an officer of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report.The Analysts and their associates do not have any financial interests in relation to the issuer mentioned in this Research Report.Except for Shandong Chenming Papers Holdings Limited-H shares(01812)and China City Railway Transportation Tech
32、nologyHoldings Company Limited(08240),Guotai Junan and its group companies do not hold equal to or more than 1%of the marketcapitalization of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report.Guotai Junan and its group companies have not had investment banking relationships with the issuer mentioned in t
33、his ResearchReport within the preceding 12 months.DISCLAIMERThis Research Report does not constitute an invitation or offer to acquire,purchase or subscribe for securities by Guotai Junan Securities(Hong Kong)Limited(Guotai Junan).Guotai Junan and its group companies may do business that relates to
34、companies covered inresearch reports,including investment banking,investment services and etc.(for example,the placing agent,lead manager,sponsor,underwriter or invest proprietarily).Any opinions expressed in this report may differ or be contrary to opinions or investment strategies expressed orally
35、 or in written form by salespersons,dealers and other professional executives of Guotai Junan group of companies.Any opinions expressed in this report may differ orbe contrary to opinions or investment decisions made by the asset management and investment banking groups of Guotai Junan.Though best e
36、ffort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information and data contained in this Research Report,Guotai Junan doesnot guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the information and data herein.This Research Report may contain some forward-lookingestimates and forecasts derived from the assum
37、ptions of the future political and economic conditions with inherently unpredictable andmutable situation,so uncertainty may contain.Investors should understand and comprehend the investment objectives and its related risks,and where necessary consult their own financial advisers prior to any invest
38、ment decision.This Research Report is not directed at,or intended for distribution to or use by,any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or locatedin any jurisdiction where such distribution,publication,availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation or which woulds
39、ubject Guotai Junan and its group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction.2012 Guotai Junan Securities(Hong Kong)Limited.All Rights Reserved.27/F.,Low Block,Grand Millennium Plaza,181 Queens Road Central,Hong Kong.,Tel.:(852)2509-9118Website:.hk,Fax:(852)2509-7793,See the last page for disclaimer,Page 6 of 6,
