《DB_TODAY_-_GLOBAL／MACRO-2012-09-05.ppt》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《DB_TODAY_-_GLOBAL／MACRO-2012-09-05.ppt（21页珍藏版）》请在三一办公上搜索。
1、Table Of DiPaola,(+1)212Heading,Section Heading,Section Heading,Deutsche BankMarkets Research,Global,PeriodicalDB Today-Global/Macro,Greg Poole(+1)212 250-9902,Amy Wei(+1)212 250-5574,Wednesday 29th August 2012,ChristopherContentsSection 250-3503,Page 00,Section Heading,Page 00Page 00,Key Change:US
2、Q2 real GDP expected to be revised up to+1.7%.from+1.5%,Section HeadingGLOBAL MARKET WRAPINDEX Close,Page 00Page 001D YTD%Chg%Chg,MACRO HIGHLIGHTSFixed Income Strategy-Fixed Income Special Report Abhishek SinghaniaSpanish banks balance sheet developments confirm the difficulty faced bythem.Spanish b
3、anks have had to reduce balance sheet size by EUR 52bn tooffset the loss of EUR 75bn of deposits in the month of July.Over the past 12months they have reduced their loans to non-financial corporates by EUR 57bnand loans to households by EUR 27bn.Over the same period they have lostEUR 207bn of deposi
4、ts and seen a reduction of EUR 50bn in debt securities,S&P 500NASDAQDOWDJ STOXX 50FTSE 100 INDEXHANG SENG INDEXMSCI Asia ex JapanBRAZIL BOVESPARTS-2 INDEX,1409.303077.1413102.992438.675754.6419788.37489.49758406.41474.14,-0.10.1-0.2-0.1-0.4-0.1-0.40.50.0,12.118.17.25.33.37.36.72.9-3.5,(with maturity
5、 1Y).Detailed report on page 8,COMMODITY PRICES,Global Strategy Global Strategy Flash Dominic KonstamEconomics-U.S.:We doubt Chairman Bernanke will front-run next monthsFOMC meeting by foreshadowing potential policy moves at this Fridaysannual Jackson Hole event;we are projecting a 150k increase in
6、nonfarmpayrolls and a 0.1%decline in the unemployment rate to 8.2%.Interest Ratesand FX-U.S.:The re-rally in core rates is consistent with legitimate concernsaround Europe and global growth.However,there is scope for a partial,COMMODITIESWest TexasBrentCRBCopperGold(Spot)Alum.(LME)Baltic Dry,Close96
7、.33112.97306.91343.601665.301916.00724.00,1D%Chg0.9-0.30.3-0.8-0.1-0.11.0,YTD%Chg-2.55.00.50.06.5-5.1-58.3,normalization of rates(2%)beginning in the fourth quarter,and lower yieldsnow offer attractive opportunities to gain exposure to higher yields later,in ourview.Detailed report on page 8,FOREIGN
8、 EXCHANGE PRICESFOREX(vs US$)Close,1D%Chg,YTD%Chg,HK$,7.76,0.0,0.1,Asia Strategy Asia Economics Special-Jun MaSince May,the RMB has depreciated by 0.9%against the USD.In Q2,Chinascapital and financial account recorded the largest net outflow in history.Investors and corporations have felt increasing
9、ly uncertain about the directionof the RMB in the future.In this note,we present a RMB forecasting model,EURJPYGBPSource:BloombergDERIVATIVES,1.2578.561.58,-0.2-0.1-0.1,-3.2-2.11.7,and estimate the probability distribution of RMB movement against the USD inthe coming four quarters.Our model found th
10、at the RMB exchange rate can beexplained largely by four macro factors:Chinas GDP growth,its currentaccount to GDP ratio,the strength of the USD,and the PBOCs FXintervention.Detailed report on page 9,SPX 3M Mat ATM-Strike Imp VolSPX 3M Mat 90%-110%IV SkewSPX 3m Mat Realized VolSource:BloombergCREDIT
11、,Current%-ileValue Rank16.79 21.90%10.70 35.40%15.33 34.20%,Contd on next page,CreditCDX.NA.IGITRX.EuropeCDX.NA.HYITRAX.XOVERSOVX.WE,Close101.03146.198.12586.0233.2,1D%Chg0.70.1-0.1-0.3-0.4,YTD%Chg-15.8-15.525.52-22.37-34.62,Source:Deutsche Bank_Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.All prices are those curr
12、ent at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated.Prices are sourcedfrom local exchanges via Reuters,Bloomberg and other vendors.Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subjectcompanies.Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports.
13、Thus,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.DISCLOSURES ANDANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.MICA(P)072/0
14、4/2012.,29 August 2012DB Today-Global/MacroMACRO HIGHLIGHTSUS Strategy-Key Charts David BiancoThe Tech Wreck and Financial Crisis,two vicious bear markets in one decade,brought humiliation to US equities.S&P500 10 year rolling annualized nominal returns turned negative in late 2008-first time since
15、the Great Depression and went down further to-3.4%in Feb 2009.S&P 500 10 year rolling real returns also turned negative,as they did inthe 1970s,but the relative performance of the S&P 500 versus 10yr Treasury bonds was worse than the GreatDepression.The realized 10 year rolling S&P 500 Equity Risk P
16、remium touched-10.3%in early 2009.Detailed reporton page 9Global Strategy-The House View-Raj HindochaMarkets have delivered a summer rally amid falling volatility as expectations of central bank intervention haveencouraged investors to overlook macro concerns.The implicit safety-net provided by cent
17、ral banks has helped topush credit and equities higher,while Spanish and Italian bond yields have pulled back from the distressed levelsobserved in late July.In Europe,the Draghi plan for the ECB and EFSF to provide coordinated support for peripheralbond markets has reduced the tail risk of Spain an
18、d/or Italy losing access to market funding.Detailed report on page10Credit Strategy-Early Morning Reid Jim ReidFor now its still relatively quiet as August peters out somewhat.Indeed it was another uninspiring day for the USequity markets with the S&P 500(-0.08%)trading mostly sideways on lower volu
19、mes.Data flow was mixed althoughthe Conference Board Consumer Confidence index fell 4.8pts to 60.6 in August to its lowest reading since lastNovember.Housing remains the bright spot still with the Case-Shiller home price index up for the fifth consecutivemonth.In other markets,gasoline prices were w
20、eaker on talks that the impact from Hurricane Isaac may be limited.The overnight session is mixed with Chinese equities under-performing again.The Nikkei and the KOSPI are botharound two-tenths of a percent higher.Back to Europe and yesterday saw major bourses finish lower on Spanishworries.Cataloni
21、a has become the second regional government to ask the Spanish central government for a bailoutafter Valencias request last month.Catalonia is asking for an emergency EU5bn credit line as the region struggles torefinance its debts.Detailed report on page 11Commodities-Global Commodities Daily-Michae
22、l LewisWe believe fundamentals for oil and specifically oil products such as gasoil are bullish.Since we are now in a period ofmajor refinery shutdowns,we expect it will be difficult to build gas oil inventories which are already at extremely lowlevels.The tightness in oil product markets will not b
23、e helped by the sizeable fire at PDVSAs refinery in Venezuela.Add into the mix the possibility of a cold northern hemisphere winter and we view this as providing strong support tothe oil products and specifically gasoil market.Moreover,Tropical Storm Isaac will add to the risk of furtherdisruptions
24、to oil and gas facilities in the Gulf of Mexico as well as onshore refinery facilities in the US.Detailedreport on page 12Japan Economics-Japan FI Morning Memo-Makoto YamashitaFutures rebounded on the 28th.They opened slightly lower but gradually recovered as Japanese stocks fell and due todip-buyin
25、g on the downside.In overseas markets yesterday,the US S&P/Case-Shiller home price index for June rosefor the fifth consecutive month,indicating housing prices may have bottomed.However,US stocks were top heavyand Treasuries edged up due to a sharp decline in the consumer confidence index.Still,no c
26、lear direction emergedahead of US Fed Chairman Ben Bernankes speech on Friday.We expect the JGB market to remain range-boundtoday.Detailed report on page 12US Economics-US Daily Economic Notes-Joseph LaVorgnaWe expect Q2 real GDP to be revised up a scant+0.2%to+1.7%.More importantly,we believe the m
27、ix in theunderlying details will be supportive of an improvement in second half(H2)growth relative to the first half(H1),whichaveraged+1.9%post-revisions.Recently,there has been precedent for a stronger H2 economic performance.In pointof fact,H2 real GDP growth has outperformed H1 in four out of the
28、 last five years.They are:2007(+2.1%H1 vs.+2.3%H2),2009(-2.8%vs.+2.7%),2010(+2.3%vs.+2.5%)and 2011(+1.3%vs.+2.7%).The exception was 2008(-0.2%vs.-6.3%),when H2 was substantially weaker,owing to the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers.If H2 is stronger inthe current environment,we believe it will likely be
29、 due to consumer spending,which accounts for roughly 70%ofGDP.Detailed report on page 13,Page2,Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.,29 August 2012DB Today-Global/MacroKEY COMPANY RESEARCHASIA,Asian Financials-Realitycheck-Tracy Yu,Turning less positive on the sector;focusing on stock picks.We are turning l
30、ess positive on Asianfinancials as our analysis suggests the rally of yield plays has run its course and de-rating of Chinese,banks/brokers might continue due to the slowing economy,with negative chain effects on theregion.This suggests that the sector is likely to underperform the MSCI Asia-ex Japa
31、n Index in thenear term after outperforming 5-7%year-to-date.We prefer Thailand,Singapore and Australia themost and the Greater China region the least.In our view,our top picks,including AIA,SiamCommercial Bank,ANZ,BOCHK and SGX should offer investors a favorable risk reward on bothdividends and a s
32、olid company-specific growth strategy.Detailed report on page 14JAPAN,Japan-Airline Industry-Seigo Ando,New age of competition as Haneda,Narita extend runways.The number of airplanes flyingJapans skies started increasing for the first time in a long while since spring 2012.With Haneda,and Narita,gre
33、ater Tokyos two major commercial airports,extending their runways,we think anew age of competition has begun among low-cost carriers(LCCs),overseas airlines attractedto Haneda Airports vicinity to central Tokyo,and JAL and ANA which want to expand theiroverseas routes using their new B787 aircraft.I
34、n this report,we discuss what is happening inJapans skies.Detailed report on page 15EUROPE,ENI-Mark BloomfieldWPP Group-Patrick KirbyNordic Banks-Jan Wolter,Growth,restructuring however,we expect it to re-iterate margin guidance(at least 0.5pts growth).So consensus EPS may need to reduce slightly,bu
35、t fundamentally valuation isundemanding(11.5x PE 12E,3.3%divi yield)-hence we retain our Buy.Sentiment has beenhelped by increased cash returns this year:38%FY divi increase,payout ratio moving to 40%.(Originally published on 27th August 2012).Detailed report on page 17Prefer retail over corporate b
36、anks.This note focus on 3 megatrends in banking:(i)the ultra-lowinterest rate era,(ii)the secular trend of rising funding costs,and(iii)the un-level playing fieldpost Bal3.We study how ultra-low rates impact bank earnings and the industry response.Weconduct a bottom-up study to see if corp.lending c
37、reates shareholder value.Finally,we discuss ifthe field is as un-even as the industry says(its not),and look for relative winners.Our overridingconclusion is that we favor retail over corporate banks,in Nordics,and that asset repricing is keyto restore returns.(Originally published on 27th August 20
38、12).Detailed report on page 18,Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.,Page3,th,29 August 2012DB Today-Global/MacroTODAYS HEADLINESMarkets:Equities generally down in Europe as Spains Catalonia says will ask for EUR5bn of aid,US bourses shrug offdecline in consumer confidence as house prices impress,commoditie
39、s mixed,euro gains as ECBs Draghi cancelsJackson Hole trip due to a“heavy workload”.Spot iron ore down another$5/t.Asian bourses mixed in early tradeWednesdayUS:S&P/Case-Shiller house price index up 0.9%mom in June,above mkt,up 0.5%yoy.US:Conference Bd consumer confidence index falls 4.8pts to 60.6
40、in Aug.US:Richmond Fed manufacturing index rises 8pts to-9 in Aug.US:ICSC-GS chain store sales rises 0.5%last wk,up 3.4%yoy.EUR:M3 rises 3.8%yoy in July,above mkt,private sector loans rise 0.1%yoy.DEU:GfK consumer confidence steady at 5.9 in Sept,at mkt.ESP:Q2 GDP contracts 0.4%qoq,in line with flas
41、h est.,down 1.3%yoy,below mkt.AUS:Construction work done falls 0.2%qoq in Q2,below mkt,follows upwardly revised 7.8%gain in Q1.THE DAY AHEAD.US:Fed Beige Book,GDP(Q2 S),Pending Home Sales(Jul),MBA New Mortgage Apps,Try Auction 5 YrCAN:Industrial Product Prices(Jul),Teranet/National Bank HPI(Jul)DEU:
42、HICP(Aug P)FRA:INSEE business survey(Aug)ITA:Retail Sales(Jun),Consumer Confidence(Aug)CHE:KOF Leading Indicator(Aug)DNK:GDP(Q2 P)NOR:Manufacturing Wage(Q2),Deposit RatesSWE:Consumer Confidence(Aug)IN:RBIs Subbarao speaks)Source:Excerpts from DB Daily published on 29 August 2012,Page4,Deutsche Bank
43、Securities Inc.,29 August 2012DB Today-Global/MacroFORECASTG7 Quarterly GDP growth,%qoq saar/annual:%yoyUSJapanEurolandGermanyFranceItalyUKCanadaG7,Q1 110.1-7.72.95.53.80.41.93.60.0,Q2 112.5-1.70.71.1-0.21.2-0.4-1.01.0,Q3 111.37.80.42.31.0-0.92.44.52.5,Q4 11F4.10.1-1.3-0.70.2-2.7-1.41.91.7,2011F1.8-
44、0.71.53.11.70.40.82.41.4,Q1 12F2.04.70.12.10.1-3.2-1.31.91.7,Q2 12F1.54.0-1.30.7-1.3-3.8-2.82.91.0,Q3 12F2.72.1-0.71.8-2.0-1.72.33.21.8,Q4 12F2.81.30.10.9-0.7-0.31.63.01.8,2012F2.43.1-0.50.8-0.3-2.30.02.51.5,2013F2.51.20.31.00.0-0.41.83.01.8,Sources:National authorities,DB Global Markets ResearchCom
45、modities,USDWTI(bbl)Brent(bbl)US Natural Gas(mmBtu)GoldSilver,Q1 12102.93118.352.51169133,Q2 1293.35108.762.35161229,Q3 1288982.75170033,Q4 12901003.1190038,201293.57106.282.68172633,201395.751043.75205043,20141001104.25180036,Aluminium,USc/lbUSD/t,100.72219,91.62019,86.21900,95.32100,93.42060,99.82
46、200,99.82200,Copper,USc/lbUSD/t,377.98329,355.27829,331.27300,363.08000,356.87865,3638000,340.37500,Source:Deutsche Bank,Figures are period averagesCENTRAL BANK POLICY,Current,Sep-12,Dec-12,Mar-13,USEurolandJapanUKChinaIndia,0-0.250.750.10.53.008.00,0-0.250.500.10.52.758.00,0-0.250.500.10.52.757.50,
47、0-0.250.500.10.52.757.50,Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.,Page5,-,-,-,-,-,29 August 2012DB Today-Global/MacroFORECAST.ContinuedFOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES,Countries,Spot Rate,3M,6M,12M,USEuroJapanUKSwitzerlandChina,DB US$Index(Fwd.Rates)US$/Euro(Fwd.Rates)Yen/US$(Fwd.Rates)US$/(Fwd.Rates)Sfr/US$(Fwd.Rates)C
48、NY/USD(Fwd.Rates),68-1.2779-1.570.956.36,67-1.281.2780791.541.570.950.946.286.36,67-1.301.2782791.551.570.930.946.236.43,691.251.2886791.511.570.970.946.156.46,GOVERNMENT RATES,Current,Q3 2012,Q4 2012,Q2-2013,US 10Y yieldEUR 10Y yield,1.61.9,1.501.75,1.501.75,2.502.25,Source:Deutsche BankINDEX FOREC
49、ASTS,Current,2012,DJ Stoxx 600FTSE 100DaxMSCI HKS&P 500Source:Deutsche BankPage6,26857776971130001411,275640071001475Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.,29 August 2012DB Today-Global/MacroUPCOMING CONFERENCES/TRIPS,DateSeptember 5,2012September 5-6,2012September 5-7,2012September 6,2012September 10-11,201
50、2September 11-13,2012September 15-30,2012September 17-19,2012September 18,2012September 19-20,2012September 27,2012October 3-5,2012October 9-11,2012October 11-14,2012October 17,2012October 18,2012October 19,2012October 24-25,2012November 6-7,2012November 12-13,2012November 15-16,2012December 3-4,201
