《ASIA_CONSUMER_&_MEDIA_DAILY-2012-10-18.ppt》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《ASIA_CONSUMER_&_MEDIA_DAILY-2012-10-18.ppt（11页珍藏版）》请在三一办公上搜索。
1、Deutsche BankMarkets Research,AsiaChinaConsumer,PeriodicalAsia Consumer&Media Daily,Date18 October 2012Anne LingLydia Ling,Consumer maintaining Buy(Jihyun Song),Research Analyst(+852)2203 Mabel Wong,CFAResearch Analyst(+852)2203,Research Analyst(+852)2203,Li Ning Co Ltd Details of Viva China transac
2、tion(Anne Ling)Next media to sell print and TV business in Taiwan,resume tradingPepsiCo Alert 3Q12 earnings quick take(Bill Schmitz Jr)PepsiCo China operation updates in 3Q12Sector newsChina Retail Top 100 retailers achieve sales growth of 7.8%inSeptemberChina F&B Danone China operation updates in 3
3、Q12China F&B Abbott 3Q12 financial resultsAsia Consumer and Media teamMabel Wong+852 2203 6178(China Consumer)Chen Feng+852 2203 8309(HK/China Consumer/Media)Lydia Ling+852 2203 6181(HK/China Consumer/Media)Gaurav Bhatia+91-22-6658 4055(Indian Consumer/Media)Jihyun Song+82 2 316 8906(Korea Retail/Co
4、nsumer)Reggy Susanto+62-21-3189-527(Indonesia Consumer)Michelle Foong+60-3-2053 6769(Malaysia Consumer)Derek Ivan Bloomfield+66-2-633 6468(Thailand consumer)Chalinee Congmuang+66-2-633 6482(Thailand Consumer)Michael Bengson+63-2-894 6636(Philippine Consumer/Media)Anne Ling+852 2203 6177(HK/China Con
5、sumer/Media,Team Leader)(Office)+852 91221099(Mobile)_Deutsche Bank AG/Hong KongAll prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated.Prices are sourcedfrom local exchanges via Reuters,Bloomberg and other vendors.Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and sub
6、jectcompanies.Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports.Thus,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in maki
7、ng their investment decision.DISCLOSURES ANDANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.MICA(P)072/04/2012.,18 October 2012Asia Consumer maintaining Buy(035760.KQ,KRW 253,000,Buy)Reiterating BuyWe maintain our Buy rating on CJOS with a revised target price of W300,000(vs.previous W247,000).Foll
8、owing our visit to the company this week,we confirm that it iscapable of delivering strong sales growth with a bright market growth outlook and itssuccessful private brand expansion strategies.We believe profitability will also improvein 2013,expecting a slower pace of increase in the SO commission
9、and a greater sales,Page 2,Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong,18 October 2012Asia Consumer&Media Dailycontribution from high-margin private brands,with no additional one-off marketingexpenses.Please refer to full report:http:/SongLi Ning Co Ltd Details of Viva China transaction(2331.HK,HKD 4.60,Hold)Conside
10、ration.Viva China announced that the total consideration for the acquisition ofa 25.23%stake in Li Ning was HKD1.36bn(HKD5.1 per LN share),fulfilled by granting1.78bn Viva shares(HKD579m)and HKD780m convertible bonds(CBs),translating into2.4bn shares,to the Li Family.Earn-out CB.Viva China will issu
11、e at most HKD780m earn-out CBs,translating into2.4bn Viva shares,to the Li family if 25.23%of Li Nings FY2013-17 NP,multiplied bythe P/E,exceeds the total accumulated amount of consideration paid to the Li Familyand any earn-out CBs for other financial years.To keep the public float of Viva at 25%,t
12、he Li Family may exercise the conversion option on only 117m shares(4.9%of thetotal 2.4bn conversion shares).Deutsche Banks view.After the conversion,the Li Family would own 70.53%in VivaChina and indirectly hold a stake of 18%in Li Ning,vs.25.4%before the transaction.Upon full conversion of the con
13、vertible bonds by TPG and GIC,the Li Family willindirectly hold 16.1%in Li Ning.,Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong,Page 3,18 October 2012Asia Consumer&Media DailyPlease refer to full report:http:/LingNext media to sell print and TV business in Taiwan,resumetrading(0282.HK,HKD1.12,NR)Next media announced th
14、at it has signed a memorandum of understanding with Mr.Koo,to sell the entire share capital of Amazing Sino,Ideal Vegas and Next TV.Amazing Sino is the holding company of Taiwan Apple Daily and Taiwan Sharp Daily,Ideal Vegas is the holding company of Taiwan Next Magazine Bundle.The consideration of
15、Taiwan Apple Daily and Taiwan Sharp Daily is NT$16bn,orHK$4,243 million.The consideration of Next TV is NT$1.5bn,or HK$398 million.Thetotal consideration for the sale of the print and TV business amounted to NT$17.5bn,orHK$4.6bn.The company believes that this deal allows the company to rationalize a
16、nd focus itsresources on the companys operations in Hong Kong and to further develop its digitalcontent-related businesses.The company also announced that it has terminated the non-legally bindingmemorandum of understanding made on 1 October with Mr.Lien to sell the Next TV,based on mutual understan
17、ding.The company said it will resume trading on 18 October.Source:17 October 2012,company announcementPepsiCo Alert 3Q12 earnings quick take(PEP.N,USD70.30,Buy)Beat but no raiseWhile the US beverage business continues to bounce along the bottom,the companyremains focused on stepping up brand investm
18、ents and on its dominant Frito franchise,Page 4,Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong,18 October 2012Asia Consumer&Media Dailywith continued emphasis on nutrition.Guidance remains conservative,providing roomfor reinvestment and error and we see material misses from here unlikely.While relativevaluation has exp
19、anded recently,management appears to be doing the right thingswith a clear path to turning the brands around,with US beverage business optionality ifthings get materially worse.We maintain our Buy rating and$75 target.Conference callat 8 AM today:212-931-9775,Conf ID:37381174.3Q12 core EPS of$1.20,$
20、0.04 above Street.with core volume growth of 1%and organic growth of 5%in line with our model.Refranchisings and f/x lowered sales by 5 pts each.Adj.GM of 52.5%was slightlyabove our model and up 0.6 pts YoY while adj.OM of 16.6%was down 0.5 pts(highermarketing,increased pension allocation)and 0.4 pt
21、s above our model with EBIT 1%above Street.By segment,core organic growth was 3%in FLNA,0.5%in QFNA,13%inLatin America Foods,flat in PepsiCo Americas beverages,7%in Europe and 10%inAsia.Organic growth beat our expectations in Asia but was slightly lower in FLNA andPAB.Operating margins were well abo
22、ve our model in Asia but below in Quaker andLAF.Below the line,lower interest expense helped EPS by about a penny while tax ratewas in-line relative to our model.CFFO of$3,871m was above our model and up 11%YoY.FY12 guidance maintained.with 2012 EPS guidance of-5%on a constant currency basis and a 3
23、%negativecurrency impact.Company expects core constant currency net revenue growth of lowsingle digits,reflecting structural changes,primarily refranchisings,which shouldreduce core constant currency net revenue growth by roughly 3 pts for the full year.Organic sales growth,excluding structural chan
24、ges is expected to increase mid-singledigits in line with prior guidance.The company also said it is targeting$8bn ofoperating cash flow and anticipates$3bn of share repurchases during the year.Overallresults were decent but PAB remains the key underperformer with QFNA slightly belowexpectations cer
25、tainly on the operating profit line.Please refer to full report:https:/Schmitz JrPepsiCo China operation updates in 3Q12PepsiCos net revenue rose 5%yoy in 3Q12,showing a negative 5%impact fromstructural changes(mainly the beverage refranchising in China and Mexico).Thestructural changes primarily af
26、fect the net revenues growth in emerging and developingmarkets of negative 13%yoy in 3Q12.In Asia,the Middle East and Africa,net revenuedeclined 21%yoy on a mix of impact from structural changes(-27%),also primarily therefranchising of bottling operations in China,and the impact from foreign exchang
27、etranslation(-4%).PepsiCo posted 13%and 16%volume growth in snacks in 3Q12 and 9M12,respectively,driven by double-digit growth in China,the Middle East and India.The beverage division recorded 15%volume growth,boosted by double-digit growth inIndia and Pakistan,which partially offset by a low-single
28、-digit decline in China,Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong,Page 5,18 October 2012Asia Consumer&Media Daily(excluding new co-branded juice products distributed via the JV with Tingyi).In 9M12,the division achieved 9%volume growth boosted by double-digit growth in India andPakistan and high-single-digit growt
29、h in the Middle East,partially offset by a high-single-digit decline in China excluding the new co-branded juice products.The weakperformance in China is due to 1)the launch of a 500ml PET value package in 3Q11,largely replacing its 600ml offering,and 2)the transitional impact of the cooperationwith
30、 Tingyi.The new co-branded juice products in China contributed 7%and 3%to thevolume growth to the beverage in 3Q12 and 9M12,respectively.Management said the integration with Tingyi is substantially completed and thecompany has seen volume growth improvement every month since June.In September,CSD vo
31、lume climbed 15%.The alliance creates the largest beverage company in Chinawith 1.5-1.6%more relative market share over the next largest competitor.Currently,both companies have over 70 plants(PepsiCo:c.20)in China and thus they willbasically cover the entire country.Management is very confident in
32、the business goinginto 2013 and forward,saying that although the Chinese macro economy showsslowdown,it is not affecting the category at this point.Source:17 October 2012,company announcement,report,earnings call,Page 6,Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong,Jan-09,Feb-09,Mar-09,Apr-09,May-09,Jun-09,Jul-09,Aug-
33、09,Sep-09,Oct-09,Nov-09,Dec-09,Jan-Feb2010,Mar-10,Apr-10,May-10,Jun-10,Jul-10,Aug-10,Sep-10,Oct-10,Nov-10,Dec-10,Jan-Feb2011,Mar-11,Apr-11,May-11,Jun-11,Jul-11,Aug-11,Sep-11,Oct-11,Nov-11,Dec-11,Jan-12,Feb-12,Jan-Feb2012,Mar-12,1Q12,Apr-12,May-12,Jun-12,1H12,Jul-12,Aug-12,Sep-12,18 October 2012Asia
34、Consumer&Media DailySector newsChina Retail Top 100 retailers achieve sales growth of 7.8%inSeptemberThe top 100 retailers achieved sales growth of 7.8%in September.By category,foodsales rose 10.9%yoy.Sales of apparel increased 10.62%yoy.Cosmetics and dailynecessities sales climbed 10%yoy and 9.19%y
35、oy,respectively.The gold and jewelrymarket has ordinary performance,except a few retailers with relatively large growth ongifts consumption pre-holiday.Home appliance sales declined 3.19%yoy.All thecategories saw a slowdown in September from August.In 3Q12,sales of the top 100 retailers rose 7.88%yo
36、y,down 1.95%and 6.23%from thegrowth rates of 1Q12 and 2Q12,respectively.Figure 1:Top 100 retailers monthly sales growth40%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%-30%Source:Deutsche Bank,CNCICSource:17 October 2012,CNCICChina F&B Danone China operation updates in 3Q12Danones baby nutrition division achieved an 11.5%incr
37、ease in sales in 3Q12 withrobust growth in all markets.The key driver is very strong performance in Asia,particularly in China,where Danones flagship brand for baby nutrition,Dumex,hasbeen completely revamped.Danones value market shares for total milks in moderntrade increased to 15%year-to-date in
38、2012 from 14.5%year-to-date in 2011.Source:17 October 2012,company announcement,presentationChina F&B Abbott 3Q12 financial resultsAbbott(ABT.N,USD69.04,NR),a global broad-based health care company,hasreleased its 3Q12 financial results ending 30 September 2012.It reported double-digitearnings per s
39、hare(EPS)growth with a 3Q ongoing EPS of USD1.30(GAAP EPS ofUSD1.21),an increase of 10.2%and exceeding the companys quarterly guidance range.,Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong,Page 7,18 October 2012Asia Consumer PediaSure in Turkey and PediaSure SideKicks Clear in the US.Also,itrecently expanded its portfo
40、lio of products for pre-term infants by launching SterileLiquid Protein for the NICU.The company expects to launch an additional 20 productsand formulations in 2012 and has more than 30 clinical studies underway in nutritioninnovation.Source:17 October 2012,company announcement,Page 8,Deutsche Bank
41、AG/Hong Kong,18 October 2012Asia Consumer&Media DailyAppendix 1Important DisclosuresAdditional information available upon requestFor disclosures pertaining to recommendations or estimates made on securities other than the primary subject of thisresearch,please see the most recently published company
42、 report or visit our global disclosure look-up page on ourwebsite at http:/CertificationThis report covers more than one security and was contributed to by more than one analyst.The views expressed inthis report accurately reflect the views of each contributor to this compendium report.In addition,e
43、ach contributor hasnot and will not receive any compensation for providing a specific recommendation or view in this compendium report.,Equity rating key,Equity rating dispersion and banking relationships,Buy:Based on a current 12-month view of totalshare-holder return(TSR=percentage change inshare
44、price from current price to projected target priceplus pro-jected dividend yield),we recommend thatinvestors buy the stock.,450400350300250200,56%,38%,Sell:Based on a current 12-month view of total share-holder return,we recommend that investors sell thestock,150100500,11%,16%,5%,10%,Hold:We take a
45、neutral view on the stock 12-months,Buy,Hold,Sell,out and,based on this time horizon,do not,recommend either a Buy or Sell.Notes:,Companies Covered,Cos.w/Banking Relationship,1.Newly issued research recommendations andtarget prices always supersede previously publishedresearch.2.Ratings definitions
46、prior to 27 January,2007 were:Buy:Expected total return(including dividends)of 10%or more over a 12-month period,Asia-Pacific Universe,Hold:,Expected,total,return,(including,dividends)between-10%and 10%over a 12-month periodSell:Expected total return(including dividends)of-10%or worse over a 12-mont
47、h period,Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong,Page 9,18 October 2012Asia Consumer&Media DailyRegulatory Disclosures1.Important Additional Conflict DisclosuresAside from within this report,important conflict disclosures can also be found at https:/under theDisclosures Lookup and Legal tabs.Investors are strong
48、ly encouraged to review this information before investing.2.Short-Term Trade IdeasDeutsche Bank equity research analysts sometimes have shorter-term trade ideas(known as SOLAR ideas)that areconsistent or inconsistent with Deutsche Banks existing longer term ratings.These trade ideas can be found at
49、theSOLAR link at http:/.3.Country-Specific DisclosuresAustralia and New Zealand:This research,and any access to it,is intended only for wholesale clients within themeaning of the Australian Corporations Act and New Zealand Financial Advisors Act respectively.Brazil:The views expressed above accurate
50、ly reflect personal views of the authors about the subject company(ies)andits(their)securities,including in relation to Deutsche Bank.The compensation of the equity research analyst(s)isindirectly affected by revenues deriving from the business and financial transactions of Deutsche Bank.In cases wh
