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1、2011,9.6%,9.0%,2011,Q3 2011|THE KNOWLEDGERESEARCH&FORECAST REPORTSHANGHAI RETAIL MARKETHIGHLIGHTSShanghais retail property market remained stable inthe third quarter of 2011.The overall vacancy declinedslightly from the previous quarters 9.6 percent to 9.0,percent,as average rents for ground floor s
2、pace in prime,51.1,3.4%,areas reached RMB51.1 per square meter per day,a3.4 percent increase over the second quarter.The lack of new supply in the first half of 2011 carriedover into the third quarter,as Pudongs Kerry Parksidewas the only project to launch during the period.Thislimited new supply is
3、 expected to ease in the fourthquarter as several retail developments are scheduledto launch,including Henderson Metropolitan,One Primeand the first phase of Rock Bund.The September opening of Apples largest store in Asia,at Henderson Metropolitan,may drive increases in rentallevels on East Nanjing
4、Road.Strong competition for prime locations and high rentallevels continued to drive certain foreign retailers toshift from a leasing strategy to a property developmentstrategy.During the third quarter,Inter Ikea announcedplans to boost the size of its shopping centers alreadyunder development in Ch
5、ina and invest up to RMB4billion to develop a new shopping center in Shanghai,based on strong demand for shop leases.MACROECONOMIC REVIEWShanghais economy was stable in the first half year of 2011.By the end of June,the citys gross domestic product reached RMB916.4 billion,8.4 percent higherthan the
6、 previous year,with the service sector accounting for 57 percent of totaloutput.Disposable income for the citys urban residents continued to grow,driving anincrease in demand for consumer goods,despite rising inflation.According to theShanghai Statistics Bureau,urban per capita disposable income in
7、the first halfof 2011 rose 12.4 percent over the previous year,to RMB18,382.Retail sales ofconsumer goods during the same period achieved RMB325.6 billion,an 11.5 percentincrease over 2010.Though Shanghais consumer price index continued to rise,reaching 5.8 percentin August,inflation has not yet bee
8、n seen to significantly affect real consumption.For the purposes of this report,prime retail properties refers to shopping centers,including shopping malls,shopping podiums and all retail complexes with F&B,retailing andentertainment facilities having a gross floor area of 15,000 square meters or ab
9、ove,but excluding department stores.The citys various retailing catchments are divided foranalysis into prime,inner ring and decentralized areas.Prime areas refers to East and West Nanjing Road,Huaihai Road,Xujiahui,and Lujiazui(including the New Yaohan area).Inner ring areas refers to retailing cat
10、chments within and along the inner-ring road as well as Hongqiao.Decentralized areas refers to the emerging satellite commercial hubssuch as Daning and Wujiaochang which are developing within the middle-ring road area but outside the first ring,SHANGHAI|Q3 2011|RETAIL,Figure 1 Retail Sales of Consum
11、er Goods Growth Rate and Consumer Price Index(CPI)Shanghai Retail Sales Growth Rate 社会消费品零售总额增长率,Figure 2 Shanghai Urban Per Capita Disposable Income and Growth RatePer Capita Disposable Income 城市居民家庭人均可支配收入,20%,CPI 居民消费价格指数,8.0%,RMB35,000,Per Capita Disposable Income Growth 居民人均可支配收入增长率,16.00%,30,0
12、00,14.00%,15%10%5%0%,6.0%4.0%2.0%0.0%-2.0%,25,00020,00015,00010,0005,0000,12.00%10.00%8.00%6.00%4.00%2.00%0.00%,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010 1H 2011,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010 1H 2011,Source:Shanghai Statistics BureauSUPPLY,DEMAND AND VACANCY RATEThe lack of new supply in the
13、 first half of 2011 carried over into the third quarter.Kerry Parkside,a mixed-use development adjacent to Pudongs Century Park andthe Shanghai New International Expo Center,was the only project to launch duringthe period,adding 40,000 square meters to the retail market.However,this limited new supp
14、ly is expected to ease in the fourth quarter as severaldevelopments are scheduled to launch,including the retail projects of HendersonMetropolitan(East Nanjing Road),One Prime(North Sichuan Road),and the firstphase of Rock Bund,part of the Rockefeller Groups redevelopment of a six-blockhistoric area
15、 in Huangpu district.Several major retailers opened new locations at Pudongs Kerry Parkside in the thirdquarter of 2011,including GAP,H&M,and Ole.American fashion retailer GAP opened a 1,250 square meter flagship store at KerryParkside in August,the brands first foray into Pudong after establishing
16、its first twostores in prime areas of Puxi.In September,Swedish fashion retailer H&M followed suit,opening a 1,785 squaremeter store across the two floors at Kerry Parkside.This marks the third Pudongstore,and the eleventh Shanghai store,for the Swedish fast fashion brand,currentlyin an expansion ph
17、ase in mainland China.CR Vanguard opened its second upscale Ole supermarket in Shanghai in August,also at Kerry Parkside.Ole,a new brand from the well-established supermarketchain,targets high-end customers,and has plans to expand to 10 stores in mainlandChina by the end of 2011.Several areas contin
18、ued repositioning strategies during the third quarter.EastNanjing Road,one of the citys traditional prime shopping areas,will see a changeas several high-profile international brands enter the streets eastern end.Apples largest store in Asia,and its third in Shanghai,opened in September atHenderson
19、Metropolitan.Including the four-floor Apple Store,the long-awaiteddevelopment will add 35,450 square meters of upscale retail space to the easternend of the shopping street,bringing it more in line with the nearby Bund shoppingarea.In addition,American fashion retailers Forever 21 and Hollister are
20、expectedto open in the coming quarters.Forever 21s first China store will occupy 7,000square meters at Bund Plaza,similar in size to its flagship store in New YorkCitys Times Square.Hollister,owned by Abercrombie&Fitch,has confirmedits intention to lease three floors at Plaza 353 for its first store
21、 in China.Looking to the long term,plans to develop the Expo Axis into a commercial areawere announced in August.According to the EXPO Shanghai Group and ShanghaiBailian Group,who are jointly developing the former central thoroughfare of the2010 World Expo,they will invest RMB160 million to transfor
22、m the area into a130,000 square meter commercial zone,including a large retail component.,Source:Shanghai Statistics Bureau,P.2,|COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL,2%,60,70,SHANGHAI|Q3 2011|RETAILThe vacancy rate of the overall market during the third quarter of 2011 was 9.0percent,slightly lower than the previ
23、ous quarters 9.6 percent.The vacancy ratein the inner ring areas dropped from the previous quarters 21.0 percent to 15.7percent,as several new tenants occupied space at Plaza 889,Joy City,and ASECenter.A high vacancy rate at the newly-launched Kerry Parkside contributedto a rise in the overall vacan
24、cy rate in Shanghais decentralized areas,which roseto 8.0 percent from the second quarters 4.2 percent.,Figure 3 Shanghai Shopping Center New Supply,Take-up and Vacancy Rate,Figure 4 Shanghai Shopping Center Occupied Area,Vacant Area and Vacancy Rate by District,sq m600,000,New Supply 新增供应量Net Take-
25、up 净吸纳量Overall Vacancy Rate 全市空置率,20%,sq m700,000600,000,Vacant Area 空置面积23%,Occupied Area 入驻面积,Vacancy Rate 空置率,25%,500,000,16%,500,000,20%,400,000,12%,400,000,15%,15%,300,000200,000,8%,300,000200,000,9%,11%,10%,7%,6%,10%,100,0000,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,1Q-3Q2011,4%0%,100,0000,2%1%
26、普陀PT 卢湾LW 黄浦HP 浦东PD 虹口HK 长宁CN 徐汇XH 静安JA 杨浦YP 闸北ZB,5%0%,Source:Colliers International Shanghai(CIS)ResearchRENTAL RATES AND INVESTMENTRental rates for shopping centers continued to show a steady upward trend,bolstered by strong consumer demand.During the third quarter,average rentalrates for ground f
27、loor space in prime areas reached RMB51.1 per square meterper day,a 3.4 percent quarter on quarter increase.On the investment front,a 124 square meter retail property in Gubei InternationalGarden was acquired by an undisclosed buyer for RMB120,445 per square meter,the highest transacted unit price f
28、or commercial property in the third quarter.Interms of transacted units,Jiading districts Zhonghuan Caifu Jiezuo shoppingcenter led the market,selling a total of 46 units from July to September,with anaverage transaction price of RMB30,000 per square meter.In September,New World Development Company
29、has entered an agreement toacquire the Channel One shopping mall from The Blackstone Group for RMB1.46billion.The shopping mall,located in Shanghais Putuo district,comprises 42,000square meters of retail space and opened in May 2009.In August,RedStar Macalline and Chongqing Longfor both acquired plo
30、ts of landin Hongqiaos central business district,with the intention of developing the landinto a mixed-use project,including retail.RedStar Macallines joint acquisition ofa 92,133 square meter plot for RMB3.07 billion was the years highest initial bidprice amongst transacted plots of land.Chongqing
31、Longfor acquired a 78,752square meter plot for RMB3.05 billion.Figure 5 Shanghai Shopping Center Ground Floor Rental Trend,Source:Colliers International Shanghai(CIS)ResearchFigure 6 Shanghai Shopping Center Ground&Second Floor Rental Rate by District,RMB/sqm/day5040,Rents of Overall Market 整体市场租金Re
32、nts of Prime Area 核心区域租金Rents of Inner Ring Area 内环线区域租金Rents of Decentralized Area 次中心区域租金,RMB/sqm/day6050,Average Ground Floor Rental 首层平均租金Average Second Floor Rental 二层平均租金,403030,20100,20100,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,1Q-3Q 2011,静安JA,浦东PD,徐汇XH,卢湾LW,黄浦HP,长宁CN,虹口HK,杨浦YP,闸北ZB,普陀PT,Source:Colliers In
33、ternational Shanghai(CIS)Research：,Source:Colliers International Shanghai(CIS)Research：,COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL|,P.3,SHANGHAI|Q3 2011|RETAILMARKET OUTLOOK,While new supply in the third quarter was limited toPudongs Kerry Parkside project,approximately69,400 square meters are expected to come on lineb
34、y the end of 2011 as Henderson Metropolitan,OnePrime and the first phase of the Rock Bund projectlaunch.This new supply will push up the overallvacancy in Shanghais retail market in the short term,but sustained strong demand from foreign and domesticretailers means rental rates will keep steady tren
35、d.Retail sales of consumer goods are expected to showa strong upward trend as per capita income continuouslyincreases for Shanghais urban residents.And governmentincome tax cuts intended to assit lower income groupsto deal with high levels of inflaction.Strong competition for prime locations,high re
36、ntal levels,and sustained demand from domestic retailers willcontinue to drive certain foreign retailers to shift froma leasing strategy to a property development strategy.Table 1 Major Retail Transactions in Shanghai(Q3 2011)Date of issue:September 22,Source:Colliers International Shanghai(CIS)Rese
37、arch,61 countries on6 continentsUSA:125Canada:38Asia:32Australia and NZ:182Latin America:18EMEA:117$1.5 billion in annual revenue202 million sq m under managementOver 12,500 professionalsCHINA:Shanghai16F Hong Kong New World Tower300 Huai Hai Zhong Road Shanghai200021 PRCTEL+86 21 6141 3688FAX+86 21
38、 6141 3699James ShepherdSenior DirectorResearch and Advisory ServicesEast and Southwest ChinaDir+86 21 6141 4315James.SAnnie HounDirectorRetail ServicesDir+86 21 6141 3610Annie.HIvy LuManager|ResearchDir+86 21 6141 3592IThis document has been prepared by Colliers Internationalfor advertising and gen
39、eral information only.ColliersInternational makes no guarantees,representationsor warranties of any kind,expressed or implied,regarding the information including,but not limitedto,warranties of content,accuracy and reliability.Any interested party should undertake their owninquiries as to the accura
40、cy of the information.ColliersInternational excludes unequivocally all inferred orimplied terms,conditions and warranties arising outof this document and excludes all liability for lossand damages arising there from.This publicationis the copyrighted property of Colliers Internationaland/or its licensor(s).2011.All rights reserved.Accelerating success.,
