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1、,87,84,Critical Sector Data UpdateResearch Department行业关键数据更新研究部19 December 2012Sector:Oil&Gas,Petrochemicals,Figure 1 1-Y Crude Oil prices一年国际油价,Figure 2 10-Y Crude Oil prices十年国际油价,150,BrentOilspot(USD/barrel),160,BrentOilspot(USD/barrel),Brent Oil,WTI Oil Dubai Oil,WTIOilspot(USD/barrel),WTIOilsp
2、ot(USD/barrel),YTD,spot2.5%,spot-11.8%,Spot0.0%,130,DubaiOilSpot(USD/barrel),120,DubaiOilSpot(USD/barrel),YTD YOY,0.8%,-0.6%,2.8%,wowmomyoy52w H/L,2.9%0.7%6.1%128.1/88.99,1.9%0.6%-6.8%109.49/77.69,0.9%-1.5%2.3%124.02/89.2,11090,8040,70,0,Dec11,Mar12,Jun12,Sep12,Dec12,2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 20
3、08 2009 2010 2011 2012,Source:BloombergFigure 3 Domestic Gasoline&DieselRetail Price Cap国内汽油柴油最高零售价11,000,Source:Bloomberg,Gasoline,Diesel,Gasoline(RMB/Tonne),(RMB/Tonne),(RMB/Tonne),10,000,Diesel(RMB/Tonne),YTDYTD YOYwowmomyoy52w H/L,2.8%3.2%0.0%0.0%2.8%10011/8733,3.5%3.3%0.0%0.0%3.5%9171/7954,9,00
4、08,0007,0006,000,5,000,Dec-09,Jun-10,Dec-10,Jun-11,Dec-11,Jun-12,Dec-12,Source:China NDRCSector:Nonferrous Metals,Precious Metals,Figure 4 1-Y Gold prices&Dollar index一年黄金价格与美元指数,Figure 5 10-Y Gold prices&Dollarindex十年黄金价格与美元指数,Gold price,Dollar Index(RHS),2,000,Gold price(USD/Oz),Dollar Index(RHS),
5、2,0001,700,Gold price(USD/Oz),Dollar Index(RHS),105100,YTDYTD YOY,8.6%6.2%,-0.8%5.6%,1,750,1,400,95,wowmomyoy52w H/L,-0.9%-0.9%6.2%1790/1540,-0.9%-2.1%-0.9%84/78,1,500,8178,1,100800,9085,1,250,80,75,500,75,1,000,72,200,70,Dec-11,Feb-12,Apr-12,Jun-12,Aug-12,Oct-12,Dec-12,2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
6、 2009 2010 2011 2012,Source:Bloomberg,Source:Bloomberg,See the last page for disclaimer,Critical Sector Data Update 行业关键数据更新 December 19,2012,Page 1 of 21,0,0,Figure 6&7 1-Y Copper Prices&Stock一年铜价格与库存LME Copper Inventory(Tonne),Figure 8&9 10-Y Copper Prices&Stock十年铜价格与库存LME Copper Inventory(Tonne),
7、550,000500,000,LME Copper Price(USD/Tonne-RHS),11,00010,000,900,000800,000700,000,LME Copper Price(USD/Tonne-RHS),12,00010,000,450,000,600,000,8,000,LME Copper LME CopperPrice(RHS)Inventory,400,000,9,000,500,000,6,000,YTD,6.1%,-19.5%,350,000,8,000,400,000,YTD YOYwowmomyoy,-10.6%-0.9%6.0%9.8%,N/A15.3
8、%17.0%-21.7%,300,000250,000,7,000,300,000200,000100,000,4,0002,000,52w H/L,8740.25/7260,381250/210725,200,000Dec-11,Feb-12,Apr-12,Jun-12,Aug-12,Oct-12,Dec-12,6,000,02003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012,SHFE Copper Inventory(Tonne),240,000,SHFE Copper price(RMB/Tonne-RHS),80,000,240,000,
9、SHFE Copper Inventory(Tonne)SHFE Copper price(RMB/Tonne-RHS),100,000,SHFE,SHFE,200,000,70,000,200,000,80,000,Copper price(RHS),CopperInventory,160,000,60,000,160,000,60,000,YTDYTD YOYwowmom,5.1%-13.6%0.1%3.5%,120.3%N/A3.7%0.9%,120,00080,000,50,000,120,00080,00040,000,40,00020,000,yoy,7.5%,158.1%,52w
10、 H/L,61490/53280,227276/79570,40,000Dec-11,Feb-12,Apr-12,Jun-12,Aug-12,Oct-12,Dec-12,40,000,02003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012,Source:BloombergFigure 10&11 1-Y Aluminum Prices&Stock一年铝价格与库存,Source:BloombergFigure 12&13 10-Y Aluminum Prices&Stock十年铝价格与库存,LME,5,300,000,LME Aluminum Inv
11、entory(Tonne)LME Aluminum Price(USD/Tonne-RHS),2,800,6,000,000,LME Aluminum Inventory(Tonne)LME Aluminum Price(USD/Tonne-RHS),4,000,Aluminum,LME Aluminum,5,100,000,5,000,000,3,500,YTDYTD YOYwowmomyoy52w H/L,Price(RHS)4.2%-16.0%-1.2%7.9%5.1%2353/1836,Inventory4.7%N/A0.3%1.9%7.9%5207225/4799850,4,900,
12、0004,700,0004,500,000,2,6002,4002,200,4,000,0003,000,0002,000,0001,000,000,3,0002,5002,0001,500,4,300,000,2,000,0,1,000,4,100,000,1,800,2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012,Dec-11,Mar-12,Jun-12,Sep-12,Dec-12,SHFE Aluminum Inventory(Tonne),SHFE Aluminum Inventory(Tonne),600,000,SHFE Alum
13、inum price(RMB/Tonne-RHS),25,000,550,000,SHFE Aluminum price(RMB/Tonne-RHS),19,500,500,000,22,500,SHFE,Aluminumprice(RHS),SHFE AluminumInventory,450,000,18,500,400,000,20,000,YTDYTD YOYwowmomyoy52w H/L,-3.4%-6.4%-0.2%-0.7%-2.8%16390/15040,116.5%N/A-2.8%-2.3%137.5%465679/177415,350,000250,000150,000,
14、17,50016,50015,500,300,000200,000100,000,17,50015,00012,500,0,10,000,50,000,14,500,2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012,Dec-11,Feb-12,Apr-12,Jun-12,Aug-12,Oct-12,Dec-12,Source:Bloomberg,Source:Bloomberg,See the last page for disclaimer,Critical Sector Data Update 行业关键数据更新 December 19,20
15、12,Page 2 of 21,0,0,5,Figure 14&15 1-Y Zinc Prices&Stock一年锌价格与库存LME Zinc Inventory(Tonne),Figure 16&17 10-Y Zinc Prices&Stock十年锌价格与库存LME Zinc Inventory(Tonne),LME Zinc,LME Zinc,1,300,0001,250,0001,200,000,LME Zinc Price(USD/Tonne-RHS),3,0002,800,1,400,0001,200,000,LME Zinc Price(USD/Tonne-RHS),5,000
16、,Price(RHS),Inventory,1,150,000,4,000,YTD,13.3%,49.2%,1,100,000,2,600,1,000,000,YTD YOYwowmomyoy52w H/L,-12.0%0.3%8.9%11.9%2205/1756,N/A-0.4%5.6%61.5%1235975/758900,1,050,0001,000,000950,000900,000850,000800,000750,000,2,4002,2002,0001,800,800,000600,000400,000200,000,3,0002,0001,000,700,000,650,000
17、Dec-11,Feb-12,Apr-12,Jun-12,Aug-12,Oct-12,Dec-12,1,600,02003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012,SHFE Zinc Inventory(Tonne),430,000,SHFE Zinc price(RMB/Tonne-RHS),22,000,500,000,SHFE Zinc Inventory(Tonne),SHFE Zinc price(RMB/Tonne-RHS),23,000,400,000,20,000,400,000,20,000,SHFE Zinc SHFE Zin
18、c,370,000,18,000,300,000,17,000,price(RHS)Inventory,YTDYTD YOY,5.1%-12.1%,-14.4%N/A,340,000,16,000,200,000,14,000,wow,0.5%,1.8%,mom,2.6%,2.5%,310,000,14,000,100,000,11,000,yoy,4.3%,-16.7%,52w H/L,16180/14210,387381/296656,280,000Dec-11,Feb-12,Apr-12,Jun-12,Aug-12,Oct-12,Dec-12,12,000,02008,2009,2010
19、,2011,2012,8,000,Source:BloombergFigure 18 1-Y Nickel Prices&Stock一年镍价格与库存LME Nickel Inventory(Tonne),Source:BloombergFigure 19 10-Y Nickel Prices&Stock十年镍价格与库存LME Nickel Inventory(Tonne),145,000,LME Nickel Price(USD/Tonne-RHS),180,000,LME Nickel Price(USD/Tonne-RHS),60,000,LME Nickel LME NickelPric
20、e(RHS)Inventory,135,000,29,00027,000,150,000,50,000,YTDYTD YOYwowmomyoy52w H/L,-5.9%-23.8%-1.0%10.3%-5.1%21800/15250,53.3%N/A0.0%3.9%55.6%138654/87900,125,000115,000105,00095,00085,000,25,00023,00021,00019,00017,000,120,00090,00060,00030,000,40,00030,00020,00010,000,75,000Dec-11,Feb-12,Apr-12,Jun-12
21、,Aug-12,Oct-12,Dec-12,15,000,02003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012,Source:BloombergFigure 20 10-Y China Growth Rate ofValue-Added of Industry十年中国工业增加值增长速度25,Source:Bloomberg,CHVAIOYIndex,20,%,YTDwowmomyoy52w H/L,N/AN/A0.5 ppt-2.3 ppt12.8/8.9,15100,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010
22、,2011,2012,Note:Latest data is 11/2012.,Source:National Bureau of Statistics of China,See the last page for disclaimer,Critical Sector Data Update 行业关键数据更新 December 19,2012,Page 3 of 21,Sector:Steel,Cement and Construction Materials,Figure 21 1-Y Steel prices一年钢材价格,Figure 22 8-Y Steel prices八年钢材价格,W
23、ire Rod Hot Rolled,ColdRolled,20mmMediumPlate,7,0006,000,Wire Rod(RMB/Tonne)Hot Rolled(RMBTonne)Cold Rolled(RMB/Tonne)20mm Medium Plate(RMB/Tonne),8,000,Wire Rod(RMB/Tonne)Hot Rolled(RMBTonne)Cold Rolled(RMB/Tonne)20mm Medium Plate(RMB/Tonne),YTDYTD YOYwowmom,-17.1%-17.5%1.7%-1.9%,-6.9%-14.7%0.7%-0.
24、6%,-11.8%-11.9%0.6%0.9%,-10.2%-16.9%1.4%-0.1%,5,000,6,000,yoy52w H/L,-18.4%-7.0%-12.2%4416/3413 4395/3253 5250/4379,-10.8%4430/3324,4,000,4,000,3,000,2,000,Dec-11,Mar-12,Jun-12,Sep-12,Dec-12,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,Source:BloombergFigure 23 2-Y Cement prices二年国内水泥价格,Source:Bloomberg,
25、NorthChina North East East China,CentralChina,YTD,-14.3%,-0.8%,-17.5%,-9.9%,YTD YOYwowmomyoy,-14.7%0.0%-1.0%-16.3%,-1.5%0.0%-2.5%-0.8%,-8.7%-2.1%-3.2%-18.1%,-10.0%0.0%-2.8%-9.9%,550500450,North China(RMB/Tonne)East China(RMB/Tonne)South China(RMB/Tonne)North West(RMB/Tonne),North East(RMB/Tonne)Cent
26、ral China(RMB/Tonne)South West(RMB/Tonne),52w H/L,365/289,458/418,400/286,388/308,400,SouthChina,SouthWest,NorthWest,350,YTD,2.3%,3.4%,-1.0%,YTD YOYwow,-11.1%0.5%,-16.0%-0.6%,-16.1%-0.2%,300250,mom,-1.4%,-1.3%,-1.0%,Dec-10,Apr-11,Aug-11,Dec-11,Apr-12,Aug-12,Dec-12,yoy52w H/L,-7.4%382/290,2.0%344/310
27、,-1.0%347/312,Source:China Cement AssociationSector:Aviation,Automobiles,Figure 24 1-Y Jet Fuel Prices一年航油价格,Figure 25 10-Y Jet Fuel Prices十年航油价格,220,BrentOilspot(USD/barrel),Brent Oilspot,Singapore Jet,160,BrentOilspot(USD/barrel)SingaporeJetFuel(USD/barrel),180,SingaporeJetFuel(USD/barrel),(USD/ba
28、rrel),Fuel,YTDYTD YOYwowmomyoy52w H/L,2.5%0.8%2.9%0.7%6.1%128.1/88.99,1.9%1.0%0.9%-0.8%3.6%137.79/106.15,140120100,14010060,2080,Dec11,Mar12,Jun12,Sep12,Dec12,202003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012,Source:Bloomberg,Source:Bloomberg,See the last page for disclaimer,Critical Sector Data U
29、pdate 行业关键数据更新 December 19,2012,Page 4 of 21,9,8,7,Figure 26 1-Y USD/CNY Index&NDF一年美元人民币汇率及 NDF,Figure 27 10-Y USD/CNY Index&NDF十年美元人民币汇率及 NDF,6.7,USD/CNYIndex,12MUSD/CNYNDF,USD/CNYIndex,12MUSD/CNYNDF,YTDYTD YOY,USD/CNY-0.9%-2.4%,NDF-1.1%-0.3%,6.6,8.5,wowmom,0.0%0.0%,0.0%-0.5%,6.5,7.5,yoy52w H/L,-1
30、.8%-1.4%6.3885/6.2223 6.455/6.2575,6.46.36.2,6.56,Dec11,Mar12,Jun12,Sep12,Dec12,2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012,Source:BloombergFigure 28 1-Y Shanghai Rubber Prices一年上海橡胶价格,Source:Bloomberg,Rubber,45,000,RubberShanghai(RMB/MT),YTDYTD YOYwowmomyoy52w H/L,Shanghai-7.8%-25.3%0.3%0.3%-
31、7.4%29560/21135,40,00035,00030,00025,00020,000,Dec11,Mar12,Jun12,Sep12,Dec12,Source:Bloomberg,Figure 29 6-Y RPK&PLF六年收入客公里及客座率,Figure 30 5-Y RTK&LF五年总收入吨公里及总载运率,RPK(Mnpassenger-,RTK(Mntonne-,9085,PLF(%)RPK(Million passenger-kilometers)-RHS,50,00045,000,9085,LF(%),RTK(Million tonne-kilometers)-RHS,6,
32、0005,000,YTD YOYwowmomyoy52w H/L,kilometers)11.1%N/A1.9%8.4%47789/36889,kilometers)5.8%N/A-0.9%4.5%5579/4435,PLF(pps)-0.9%N/A-0.90-1.9084/79,LF(pps)-0.1%N/A-2.300.6075/68,807570,40,00035,00030,00025,000,807570,4,0003,0002,000,65,1,000,65,20,000,60,0,602007,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,15,000,2008,2009,2
33、010,2011,2012,Note:Latest data is 10/2012,Source:Civil Aviation Administration of ChinaFigure 31 5-Y PLF&Ticket Price五年客座率及航空票价,Source:Civil Aviation Administration of China,Ticket Price,9085,PLF(%)Ticket Price Index(RHS),135125,YTD YOY,Index(RHS)0.6%,80,115,wowmomyoy52w H/L,N/A-9.5%-4.6%129/98,7570
34、6560,105958575,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,Note:Latest data is 10/2012,Source:Civil Aviation Administration of China,See the last page for disclaimer,Critical Sector Data Update 行业关键数据更新 December 19,2012,Page 5 of 21,Figure 32 6-Y Car Sales六年汽车销量,Figure 33 6-Y Car Sales YoY六年汽车销量增长（同比）,YTD YOYwowmomyoy
35、52w H/L,Auto sales3.9%N/A11.5%8.2%1838572/1379366,PV sales6.9%N/A12.5%8.8%1461300/1120206,CV sales-6.8%N/A7.4%5.6%438606/229198,1,900,0001,700,0001,500,0001,300,0001,100,000900,000700,000,Auto sales,PV sales,CV sales,200%150%100%50%,Auto sales YoYCV sales YoY,PV sales YoY,500,000300,000100,000,0%-50
36、%,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,Note:Latest data is 11/2012Domestic JetFuel Ex-factory price(RMB/Tonne),Source:China Association of AutomobileManufacturersFigure 34 3-Y Domestic Jet FuelEx-factory price三年国内航油出厂价格Dom estic Jet Fuel Ex-factory price(RMB/Tonne)9,000,Source
37、:China Association of AutomobileManufacturers,YTDYTD YOYwowmomyoy52w H/L,1.6%6.2%0.0%-4.2%-2.3%8061/6717,8,0007,0006,0005,0004,0003,000,Dec-10,Jun-11,Dec-11,Jun-12,Dec-12,Source:China NDRCSector:Shipping&Logistics,Ports,Figure 35 1-Y BDI一年波罗的海干散货运价指数,Figure 36 10-Y BDI十年波罗的海干散货运价指数,BDI,2,500,BDI,12,
38、000,BDI,YTD,-55.9%,YTD YOYwowmomyoy52w H/L,-39.8%-18.2%-26.1%-59.4%1888/647,2,0001,5001,000,9,0006,0003,000,500Dec-11,Mar-12,Jun-12,Sep-12,Dec-12,02003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012,Source:Bloomberg,Source:Bloomberg,See the last page for disclaimer,Critical Sector Data Update 行业关键数据更新
39、 December 19,2012,Page 6 of 21,70,40,Figure 37 1-Y BDTI&BCTI一年波罗的海原油运价指数及波罗的海成品油运价指数,Figure 38 10-Y BDTI&BCTI十年波罗的海原油运价指数及波罗的海成品油运价指数,BDTI,BCTI,1,100,BDTI,BCTI,3,500,BDTI,BCTI,YTDYTD YOYwow,-18.9%-8.0%6.0%,-16.2%-11.0%5.3%,1,000900,3,0002,500,momyoy,5.5%-12.7%,12.1%-8.4%,800,2,000,52w H/L,939/604,90
40、8/553,700,1,500,1,000,600,500,500Dec-11,Mar-12,Jun-12,Sep-12,Dec-12,02003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012,Source:BloombergFigure 39 1-Y BUNKER一年彭博 380 Centistoke 船用燃油价格/新加坡,Source:BloombergFigure 40 10-Y BUNKER十年彭博 380 Centistoke 船用燃油价格/新加坡,BUNKER,800,BUNKER(USD/Metric Tonne),800,BUNKER
41、(USD/Metric Tonne),YTD,-13.1%,YTD YOYwowmomyoy52w H/L,2.9%1.7%-1.6%-7.2%745/567.5,700600500,600400200,400Dec-11,Mar-12,Jun-12,Sep-12,Dec-12,02003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012,Source:Bloomberg,Source:Bloomberg,Figure,41,8-Y,China,PMI:,Manufacturing-New Export OrderIndex八年中国采购经理指数（制造业）
42、:新出口订单,China PMI:Manufacturing-New Export,ChinaPMI:Manufacturing NewExportOrderIndex,YTD,Order Index,N/A,60,wowmomyoy52w H/L,N/A0.9 ppt4.6 ppt52.2/46.6,503020,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,Note:Latest data is 11/2012,Source:China Federation of Logistics&Purchasing,See the last page for dis
43、claimer,Critical Sector Data Update 行业关键数据更新 December 19,2012,Page 7 of 21,Figure 42 2-Y China Import&Export(Seasonally Adjusted,YoY)两年中国月度进出口值增长（季节调整：同比）China Monthly Export(Seasonally Adjusted,YoY),Figure 43 2-Y China Import&Export(Seasonally Adjusted,MoM)两年中国月度进出口值增长（季节调整：环比）China Monthly Export(
44、Seasonally Adjusted,MoM)China Monthly Import(Seasonally Adjusted,MoM),YTD,ChinaMonthlyExport(SeasonallyAdjusted)N/A,ChinaMonthlyImport(SeasonallyAdjusted)N/A,ChinaMonthlyExport&Import(SeasonallyAdjusted)N/A,70%60%50%40%30%,China Monthly Import(Seasonally Adjusted,YoY)China Monthly Export&Import(Seas
45、onally Adjusted,YoY),40%30%20%10%0%,China Monthly Export&Import(Seasonally Adjusted,MoM),wow,N/A,N/A,N/A,momyoy52w H/L,-3.2%3.8%19%/2%,-6.6%-0.3%25%/(3%),-4.8%1.8%22%/(1%),20%10%0%,-10%-20%-30%,-10%,-40%,Nov-10,Mar-11,Jul-11,Nov-11,Mar-12,Jul-12,Nov-12,Nov-10,Mar-11,Jul-11,Nov-11,Mar-12,Jul-12,Nov-1
46、2,Note:Latest data is 11/2012,Source:China CustomsFigure 44 1-Y CCBFI一年中国沿海(散货)运价指数,Source:China CustomsFigure 45 5-Y CCBFI五年中国沿海(散货)运价指数,China costalbulk freightindex(CCBFI),1,400,China costal bulk freight index(CCBFI),3,5003,0002,500,China costal bulk freight index(CCBFI),YTDYTD YOYwowmomyoy52w H/
47、L,-7.5%-20.4%-0.3%0.8%-7.6%1250/1032,1,200,2,0001,5001,000,1,000Dec-11,Mar-12,Jun-12,Sep-12,Dec-12,5002008,2009,2010,2011,2012,Source:Shanghai Shipping ExchangeFigure 46 1-Y CCFI一年中国出口集装箱运价指数,Source:Shanghai Shipping ExchangeFigure 47 5-Y CCFI五年中国出口集装箱运价指数,YTD,Chinacontainerizedfreight index(CCFI)22
48、.9%,1,4001,3501,3001,2501,200,China containerized freight index(CCFI),1,5001,300,China containerized freight index(CCFI),YTD YOYwowmomyoy52w H/L,17.7%-0.4%-4.5%20.8%1335/881,1,1501,1001,0501,000950,1,100900,900,850,700,Dec-11,Mar-12,Jun-12,Sep-12,Dec-12,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,Source:Shanghai Shipp
49、ing Exchange,Source:Shanghai Shipping Exchange,See the last page for disclaimer,Critical Sector Data Update 行业关键数据更新 December 19,2012,Page 8 of 21,at,Figure 48 1-Y SCFI一年上海出口集装箱运价指数,1,600,Shanghai Containerized Freight Index(SCFI),ShanghaiContainerizedFreight Index(SCFI),1,5001,400,YTDYTD YOYwowmomy
50、oy52w H/L,20.2%24.3%11.3%-0.2%37.0%1501/854,1,3001,2001,1001,000900800,Dec-11,Mar-12,Jun-12,Sep-12,Dec-12,Source:Shanghai Shipping ExchangeSector:Coal,Electricity,Figure 49 5-Y Thermal Coal FOB atQinhuangdao五年秦皇岛动力煤平仓价,Figure 50 5-Y Coal InventoryQinhuangdao五年秦皇岛煤炭库存,大同优混Datong 5,800 Kcal/kg,山西优混Sha
