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1、3600,3200,2800,2400,2000,Deutsche BankMarkets Research,RatingBuyEuropeUnited Kingdom,CompanyAnglo American,Date15 November 2012Company Update,Metals&MiningMetals&Mining,ReutersAAL.L,BloombergAAL LN,Exchange TickerLSEAAL,Price at 14 Nov 2012(GBP)Price Target(GBP)52-week range(GBP),1,725.002,520.002,9
2、10.00-1,725.00,Minas Rio and Amplats impairmentsimpact on P/BVUS$8.4bn of potential impairments to change BV by 19%When Anglo announced the increased Minas Rio capex,we highlighted thepotential for a US$7bn impairment.We have extended this view to the possibleshaft closures and project impairments f
3、rom Amplats.When the ops reviewresults are announced,(expected before the end of Nov)we think an additionalUS$1.4bn impairment is possible.This would reduce the Anglo BV by 19%,and increase the P/BV to 1.17x,a premium to long term average versus peers.Based on upside to our valuation we retain our B
4、uy recommendation.,Grant SporreResearch Analyst(+44)20 754-Rob CliffordResearch Analyst(+44)20 754-Key changes,Tim ClarkResearch Analyst(+27)11 775-,Minas Rio and Amplats impairments to impact P/BV perceptionsOne of the value measures that investors use to identify Anglo as attractive hasbeen the re
5、latively attractive P/BV compared to peers(currently 0.93x)and thelong term absolute level.We have highlighted the risk of impairments to Minas,Target PricePrice/price relative,2,600.00 to 2,520.00,-3.1%,Rio(given higher capex and management changes)to the extent of US$7bn.We also expect shaft closu
6、res and project curtailments to result in Amplatsimpairments of US$1.4bn.This total potential impairment of US$8.4bn resultsin a 19%lower BV which means that Anglo is trading at a premium to peerswhen compared to long term average P/BV average.,Revising earnings and NPV lower on Amplats strike and c
7、ost issuesWe have adjusted our Amplats forecasts.For FY12,we maintain our,160011/09,5/10 11/10Anglo American,5/11,11/11,5/12,production forecast of 2.2moz,at the lower end of company guidance.We,FTSE 100 INDEX(Rebased),have added in an extra R500m of costs to account for the fixed costs of idleprodu
8、ction,taking our unit costs from R16,030/oz to R16,250/oz.We haveadjusted our FY13 production estimate from 2.5moz refined platinum to2.4moz to account for a likely slow ramp-up of mines post-strikes and a re-,Performance(%)AbsoluteFTSE 100 INDEX,1m-5.5-0.1,3m-14.5-1.3,12m-29.54.8,build of Amplats p
9、ipeline stocks.As a result of these issues we reduce ourearnings for Anglo by 0.9%in FY12e,1.3%for FY13e and 1.6%for FY14e.OurNPV is reduced by 3%.Price target reduced from 2600p to 2520p,(31000 SAc),recommendation BuyOur price target reflects a valuation taking into consideration both DCF overlife-
10、of-mine(9.5%WACC)for core asset valuations and market values or peergroup multiples for non-core assets.Risks to our view include stronger-than-expected operating currencies(Rand,A$)and lower commodity prices,inparticular PGMs,copper and iron ore.More on valuation and risks page 10.Forecasts And Rat
11、ios,Year End Dec 31EBITDA(USDm)DB EPS(USD)%ChangeP/E(DB EPS)(x)EV/EBITDA(x),2010A10,5324.010.0%10.34.9,2011A11,4065.060.0%8.95.6,2012E7,2521.93-0.9%14.26.3,2013E9,3272.10-1.3%13.05.3,2014E10,6872.69-1.6%10.15.0,Source:Deutsche Bank estimates,company data_Deutsche Bank AG/LondonAll prices are those c
12、urrent at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated.Prices are sourcedfrom local exchanges via Reuters,Bloomberg and other vendors.Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subjectcompanies.Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research repor
13、ts.Thus,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.DISCLOSURES ANDANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.MICA(P)07
14、2/04/2012.,10,15 November 2012Metals&MiningAnglo American,Model updated:14 November 2012,Fiscal year end 31-Dec,2009,2010,2011,2012E,2013E,2014E,Running the numbers,Financial Summary,EuropeUnited KingdomMetals&MiningAnglo American,DB EPS(USD)Reported EPS(USD)DPS(USD)BVPS(USD)Weighted average shares(
15、m)Average market cap(USDm),2.081.970.0021.71,20233,937,4.015.230.6528.41,20649,759,5.065.100.7432.31,21054,238,1.931.550.8233.11,24434,007,2.102.100.8633.51,28034,991,2.692.690.8835.31,28034,991,Reuters:AAL.L,Bloomberg:AAL LN,Enterprise value(USDm),40,223,51,756,64,162,45,647,49,702,53,217,Valuation
16、 Metrics,Buy,P/E(DB)(x)P/E(Reported)(x),13.614.4,10.37.9,8.98.8,14.217.7,13.013.0,10.110.1,Price(14 Nov 12)Target Price52 Week rangeMarket Cap(m),GBP 1,725.00GBP 2,520.00GBP 1,725.00-2,910.00GBPm 21,459USDm 34,007,P/BV(x)FCF Yield(%)Dividend Yield(%)EV/Sales(x)EV/EBITDA(x)EV/EBIT(x),2.01nm0.01.99.11
17、4.7,1.845.01.61.94.96.0,1.146.01.72.15.66.8,0.83nm3.01.66.39.1,0.820.33.11.35.37.7,0.771.03.21.35.06.8,Company Profile,Income Statement(USDm),Anglo American plc is a globally diversified miningcompany.It has interests in diamonds,platinum,coal,copper,nickel,zinc,iron ore,and industrial minerals.TheG
18、roup has operations and developments in Africa,Europe,Australia,and South and North America.The companyfirst listed in London in 1999,and has been disposing onnon-core assets to create a more focused mining group.Anglos diamond and platinum assets differentiate it fromthe other diversified miners.Pr
19、ice Performance360032002800240020001600,Sales revenueGross profitEBITDADepreciationAmortisationEBITNet interest income(expense)Associates/affiliatesExceptionals/extraordinariesOther pre-tax income/(expense)Profit before taxIncome tax expenseMinoritiesOther post-tax income/(expense)Net profitDB adjus
20、tments(including dilution)DB Net profit,20,8584,4324,4321,69202,740-407841,61204,0291,11748702,4251442,569,27,96010,53210,5321,86608,666-1398221,57915411,0822,8091,57506,698-1,5685,130,30,58011,40611,4061,96709,43918397718326411,0462,8601,75306,433-496,384,29,4037,2527,2522,22805,023-523497-39-1104,
21、8481,5861,27901,9834842,467,37,1459,3279,3272,83206,495-796589006,2881,9921,56302,73302,733,40,08510,68710,6872,81707,870-999701007,5722,3091,76003,50203,502,Nov 09 May 10 Nov 10 May 11 Nov 11 May 12,Cash Flow(USDm),Cash flow from operations,4,087,7,727,9,362,5,040,7,024,8,383,Anglo AmericanMargin T
22、rends403020,FTSE 100 INDEX(Rebased),Net CapexFree cash flowEquity raised/(bought back)Dividends paidNet inc/(dec)in borrowingsOther investing/financing cash flowsNet cash flowChange in working capital,-4,561-47450-472-3711,282150,-5,2162,511-64-919-7881,8822,6220,-6,1263,236-347-2,2224,6672995,6330,
23、-5,652-61222-2,0682,081-6,987-7,5640,-6,9309522-1,9900-396-2,2690,-8,01836522-2,1420-999-2,7540,Balance Sheet(USDm),09,10,11,12E,13E,14E,Cash and other liquid assets,3,269,6,401,11,732,4,371,2,102,1,348,EBITDA MarginGrowth&Profitability403020100-10-20-30,EBIT Margin,2520151050,Tangible fixed assetsG
24、oodwill/intangible assetsAssociates/investmentsOther assetsTotal assetsInterest bearing debtOther liabilitiesTotal liabilitiesShareholders equityMinoritiesTotal shareholders equity,35,1983,1186,8997,82456,30814,50613,73328,23926,1211,94828,069,39,8102,6958,9158,83566,65613,58115,10428,68534,2393,732
25、37,971,40,5492,6828,8048,67572,44212,87316,38029,25339,0924,09743,189,41,3582,62716,40910,14774,91314,22816,24030,46841,1313,31344,444,45,0552,62716,87211,49978,15514,22817,15531,38342,8223,95046,772,50,2562,62717,49812,11583,84316,22817,70133,92945,2334,68249,915,09,10,11,12E,13E,14E,Net debt,11,23
26、7,7,180,1,141,9,857,12,126,14,880,Sales growth(LHS),ROE(RHS),Key Company Metrics,Solvency,Sales growth(%)DB EPS growth(%),-20.7-51.9,34.092.3,9.426.4,-3.8-62.0,26.39.2,7.928.2,50403020100,706050403020100,EBITDA Margin(%)EBIT Margin(%)Payout ratio(%)ROE(%)Capex/sales(%)Capex/depreciation(x)Net debt/e
27、quity(%),21.213.10.010.522.12.740.0,37.731.011.722.218.92.818.9,37.330.913.917.520.33.22.6,24.717.151.64.919.22.522.2,25.117.540.36.518.72.425.9,26.719.632.28.020.02.829.8,09,10,11,12E,13E,14E,Net interest cover(x),6.7,62.3,nm,9.6,8.2,7.9,Net debt/equity(LHS)Grant Sporre,Net interest cover(RHS,Sourc
28、e:Company data,Deutsche Bank estimates,+44 20 754-58170Page 2,Deutsche Bank AG/London,FY12E,FY13E,FY14E,FY09A,FY10A,FY11A,FY15E,FY12E,FY13E,FY14E,FY09A,FY10A,FY11A,FY15E,FY12E,FY13E,FY14E,FY09A,FY10A,FY11A,FY15E,FY12E,FY13E,FY14E,FY09A,FY10A,FY11A,FY15E,Nickel,1%,-,-,-,t,t,t,t,t,t,l,l,l,t,l,),),),),
29、),),l,l,l,-,-,15 November 2012Metals&MiningAnglo AmericanFigure 1:Divisional summary data,ANGLO AMERICAN OPERATIONAL AND FINANCIAL SUMMARY DATAFX/COMMODITY ASSUMPTIONS FY09A FY10A FY11A FY12E FY13E FY14E FY15ECopper Usc/lb 234 343 400 362 363 340 323PRODUCTIONPlatinum koz 1,404 1,855 1,816 1,632 1,8
30、20 1,865 1,966SAThermal Coal-Eskom&Dom m 39 38 40 38 39 41 43SAThermal Coal-Export m 20 20 17 16 17 17 17Australia Met Coal-Domestic m 11 11 10 9 9 9 9Australia Met Coal-Export m 16 19 17 21 22 23 23SthAmerica Thermal Coal-Expor m 10 10 11 12 13 15 15IronOre m 25 28 31 27 37 38 52Copper kt 670 623 5
31、89 524 491 537 499REVENUE,US$MNicke 348 426 488 424 1,134 1,224 1,212Copper 3,967 4,877 5,144 5,415 6,106 6,200 5,630Platinum 4,535 6,602 7,359 5,167 6,547 7,240 7,639IronOre 3,419 6,612 8,124 6,278 7,363 7,565 8,447OMIG 5,908 5,520 4,040 4,265 4,355 4,801 4,199EBIT,US$M,ZAR/USD 8.43 7.33 7.24 8.09
32、8.14 8.59 9.42Platinum$/oz 1,205 1,610 1,719 1,550 1,644 1,800 1,850Palladium$/oz 264 527 733 650 700 800 900Gold$/oz 974 1,226 1,570 1,701 2,113 2,000 1,756MetCoal$/t 156 178 289 210 183 200 188IronOre$/t 68 114 160 108 93 97 102Nicke Usc/lb 664 991 1,037 802 851 907 885Nicke kt 19 19 28 46 59 60 6
33、1Diamonds mC 11 15 14 18 25 26 32MetCoal 2,239 3,377 4,347 3,828 3,613 3,989 3,966Thermal Coal 2,490 2,866 3,722 3,302 3,336 3,873 3,850Diamonds 1,728 2,644 3,320 4,306 7,315 7,982 9,571Total 24,634 32,924 36,544 32,983 39,771 42,874 44,514MetCoal 451 783 1189 225 101 113-22,NPVMetCoalThermal CoalNi
34、ckeCopperDiamondsPlatinumIronOreOMIGOther AssetsLess net debtMinoritiesCorporateTOTALNAV(GBPper shareNAV(ZARper shareWACCRevenue split(2012F)Platinum16%Diamonds13%Copper16%,US$bn US$/sh1.8 1.39.2 6.62.1 1.518.8 13.410.0 7.113.7 9.722.2 15.82.8 2.02.2 1.510.5(7.516.4(11.70.8(0.555.1 39.225.2310.09.5%
35、Shares(mIron Ore19%OMIG13%Met Coal12%Thermal Coal10%,%of EV2.2%11.2%2.5%22.7%12.1%16.5%26.8%3.3%2.6%1,405,Thermal CoalNickeCopperDiamondsPlatinumIronOreOMIGEBIT marginsMetCoalThermal CoalNickeCopperDiamondsPlatinumIronOreOMIGGrowth Capex,US$M,721220106432124550620%29%1%51%4%1%36%9%,71096281749583736
36、8166123%25%23%58%19%13%56%12%,1230572461659890452019527%33%12%48%20%12%56%5%,7971482230304-12727373846%24%35%41%7%-2%44%9%,7673042880651-16728635353%23%27%47%9%-3%39%12%,1108450291688720931435723%29%37%47%11%3%42%12%,1087414264111691743607607-1%28%34%47%12%2%43%14%,EBIT split(2012F)Platinum-2%Diamon
37、ds4%Copper32%,Iron Ore39%,OMIG6%Met Coal3%Thermal Coal12%Nickel2%,MetCoalThermal CoalNickeCopper,96 217 695380 274 190601 525 3981,453 1,530 1,570,772 1,009 915 513238 309 303 140150 123 125 127,930 943 1,174 2,290,Valuation Split by commodity,Diamonds,71,92,106,393,736,941 1,049,PlatinumIronOreOMIG
38、Total CapexPlatinum9,000US$M6,000,1,338 1,011 970 771 888 798 685519 1,195 1,732 2,158 2,560 3,415 2,079475 224 152 297 362 348 3494,934 5,068 5,813 5,709 6,930 8,018 7,231Iron Ore18%9,000 60%US$M50%12%6,000 40%,Platinum17.0%Diamonds12.4%,Iron Ore27.6%OMIG3.4%Met Coal2.3%Thermal,3,000-,6%0%,3,000,30
39、%20%10%,Copper23.3%,CoalNickel 11.5%2.6%,(3,000),-6%,0%,Revenue,EBIT,EBIT Margin,Revenue,EBIT,EBIT Margin,Revenue by commodity,Copper,Thermal Coal,100%90%,9,0006,0003,000,US$M,80%64%48%32%,6,0004,5003,000,US$M,50%40%30%20%,80%70%60%50%40%30%,16%0%,1,500-,10%0%,20%10%0%,FY09A,FY10A,FY11A,FY12E,FY13E,
40、FY14E,FY15E,Revenue,EBIT,EBIT Margin,Revenue,EBIT,EBIT Margin,Thermal Coal,Nickel,Copper,Diamonds,Platinum,Iron Ore,OMIG,Source:Deutsche Bank,Deutsche Bank AG/London,Page 3,-,-,-,-,15 November 2012Metals&MiningAnglo AmericanImpairments and P/BVPotential US$8.4bn impairment from Minas Rio and Amplats
41、As outlined in the following table Anglo had a reported book value of US$44.7bn at Jun2012.Since this time there has been an asset write up on the acquisition of De Beers(DBe US$4bn)taking the book value to US$48.7bn.We outline the split of book value inthe table below.In the following two sections
42、of the report we outline our US$7bn impairmentexpectation for Minas Rio and our US$1.4bn Amplats impairment from shaft closuresand for project deferrals.This equates to a reduction in book value of US$8.4bn.Figure 2:Anglo BV,pre and post potential impairment charges,Net segment assets/(liabilities),
43、BV adjusted for De Beers,Uplift/(loss)DBe,Impairment DBe,BV post adjustments,purchase,Iron ore and ManganeseMetallurgical CoalThermal CoalCopperNickelPlatinumDiamondsOMIG,13,3154,7961,7428,0622,64211,6687,5823,504,4000,70001400,6,3154,7961,7428,0622,64210,26811,5823,504,ExplorationCorporate and Unal
44、located,-,1159,-,1159,Subsidiaries total,53,151,4,000,8,400,48,751,Other assets and liabilities,Investment in associatesFinancial asset investmentsDeferred tax assets/(liabilities),3,0142,9365,462,3,0142,9365,462,Other financial assets/(liabilities)-derivativesCash and cash equivalentsOther non-oper
45、ating assets/(liabilities)BorrowingsOther provisions for liabilities and charges,-,49011,2494418,945798,-,49011,2494418,945798,Total,44,699,4,000,8,400,40,299,%ChangeSource:Deutsche BankThe impact of this is a reduction of 10%of the Anglo book value including the write upfor De Beers and 19%lower bo
46、ok value excluding De Beers.A number of shareholdershave commented over time that one of the value signals for Anglos share price is thelow P/BV compared to history.Page 4,-10%Deutsche Bank AG/London,Jan90,Oct90,Jul91,Apr92,Jan93,Oct93,Jul94,Apr95,Jan96,Oct96,Jul97,Apr98,Jan99,Oct99,Jul00,Apr01,Jan0
47、2,Oct02,Jul03,Apr04,Jan05,Oct05,Jul06,Apr07,Jan08,Oct08,Jul09,Apr10,Jan11,Oct11,Jul12,15 November 2012Metals&MiningAnglo AmericanThe P/BV over time and adjustedIn the following table we illustrate that Anglo is trading in line with peers(only amarginal higher discount)on a P/BV basis compared to lon
48、g term history but at apremium when the impairment is taken into account.It is clear that Anglo on 1.17xP/BV is lower than absolute long term average levels but at a lower discount to longterm average discount than BHP and Rio which are on a 43%and 39%discountrespectively.Figure 3:P/BV over time,Ang
49、lo,BHP,Rio Tinto,P/BV nowP/BV post impairmentLong term average P/BVDiscount to LT average nowDiscount to LT average post impairment,0.931.171.6744%30%,1.581.582.7643%43%,1.721.722.8039%39%,Source:Datastream,Deutsche BankFigure 4:Anglo,BHP and Rio Tinto P/BV over time54.543.532.521.510.50,AngloSource
50、:Datastream,Deutsche BankDeutsche Bank AG/London,BHP,Rio Tinto,Page 5,15 November 2012Metals although at the FY09 resultsAmapa was impaired by US$1.5bn.Our estimate is that the net carrying value onAnglos balance sheet is US$8.35bn.Using a DCF based valuation,we think Amapa is worth US$120m and Mina
