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1、,Jan-12,Jan-13,Jan-03,Jan-04,Jan-05,Jan-06,Jan-07,Jan-08,Jan-09,Jan-10,Jan-11,1.7,2013 年 2 月 21 日亚太新兴市场的机遇，发达市场的质量：香港与新加坡的吸引力证券研究报告,香港/新加坡市场有望提供受益于亚洲新兴市场增长的机遇香港和新加坡很少被视作独立市场。尽管如此，我们认为两者良好的发达市场特质及其与亚洲新兴市场越发紧密的联系表明，它们也许能够有效地向投资者提供受益于新兴市场增长的机会。我们将在本文中介绍两地股市的投资观点、策略、长期机遇及风险。从估值来看，新加坡受益于新兴市场增长的潜力大于香港鉴于香港
2、和新加坡优质的基建和周边高速发展的新兴市场，我们预计中期内两地企业的每股盈利将趋于个位数高位的趋势增速。长期而言我们仍看好中国和东盟，而从市场对亚洲新兴市场颇具吸引力的增长前景的估值来看，相对估值显示新加坡（高配）较香港（标配）处于更佳位置。在体现新兴市场增长的股票和纯粹体现本地化回报/防御型的股票之间，我们更看好前者，并从中精选优质、不可多得且估值具有吸引力的股票。12 个月目标点位 恒生指数：26,500(13%)、MSCI 香港指数：13,800(6%)、富时海峡时报指数：3,600(10%)。明确的长期角色+三大全球题材=有利的增长环境中国的“十二五规划”和东盟经济共同体蓝图为香港与新
3、加坡勾勒了清晰的增长路线。我们预测到 2020 年末两地股市规模将增长 40%-50%左右，主要受益于三个全球题材的支撑：亚洲新兴市场的增长、新兴市场的金融深化以及发达市场的资本流向亚洲。政策是缓解风险和实现增长潜质的关键我们认为旨在扩张产能、吸引人才、推动研发和升级现有基建的政策是加强香港和新加坡的相对优势、并将其与新兴市场的联系转化为收益的关键所在。从对新兴市场增长的估值来看，我们认为新加坡较香港处于更佳位置,刘劲津,CFA+852-2978-1224 高盛（亚洲）有限责任公司慕天辉,CFA+852-2978-1328 高盛（亚洲）有限责任公司欧阳汉+65-6889-1199 高盛（新加坡
4、）私人公司Caesar Maasry+852-2978-7213 高盛（亚洲）有限责任公司Ramasubramanian Dharmaraj+91(80)6637-8592 高盛（印度）证券私人有限公司Ketaki Garg+91(80)6637-8601 高盛（印度）证券私人有限公司鄧啟志+852-2978-0722 高盛（亚洲）有限责任公司Sunil Koul+852-2978-0924 高盛（亚洲）有限责任公司,20%18%16%14%12%10%,18.9%15.7%,Hong KongSingapore11.7%9.3%,Relative valuations(fP/E)1.8HK
5、vs.China1.61.51.4,8%6%4%2%0%,7.6%,8.3%,SG vs.ASEAN-4,1.31.21.11.00.90.8,Past 10Y EPS CAGR,Past 5Y EPS CAGR,Trend EPS growth,(13E-16E,GS,ex-revaluation/FX)资料来源：MSCI、FactSet、I/B/E/S、高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究高盛与其研究报告所分析的企业存在业务关系，并且继续寻求发展这些关系。因此，投资者应当考虑到本公司可能存在可能影响本报告客观性的利益冲突，不应视本报告为作出投资决策的唯一因素。有关分析师的申明和其他重要信息，见信息
6、披露附录，或参阅 由非美国附属公司聘用的分析师不是美国 FINRA 的注册/合格研究分析师。本报告仅供分发给高盛机构客户。高盛集团,3,5,7,11,14,16,18,21,27,31,36,43,2,2013 年 2 月 21 日Table of contentsExecutive summaryWhy are we comparing Hong Kong and Singapore?Fundamental analysis(1):They thrive on core competenciesFundamental analysis(2):Monetary policy boosts ea
7、rningsFundamental analysis(3):They share similar profitability profilesFundamental analysis(4):They are levered to Asian EM growthFundamental analysis(5):We forecast high-single-digit trend EPS growth for bothInvestment case:They are good vehicles to trade Asian EM growthValuations:Asian EM growth i
8、s less well discounted in Singapore than in Hong KongStrategies and implementation:Hinterland-oriented,with overlaysFuture path(1):Macro:A well-defined roadmapFuture path(2):Equity market:Significant growth opportunitiesKey risksAppendixDisclosure AppendixThe prices in the report are as of the marke
9、t close of February 18,2013,unless stated otherwise.The authors would like to thank Phillip Wong and Vincent Lau for their contributions to this report.高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究,515962,亚太,3,2013 年 2 月 21 日,亚太,Executive summaryInvestors tend to categorize Asian markets based on their economic model and marketch
10、aracteristics,with China/India(large cyclical EMs),Korea/Taiwan(tech exporters),and theASEAN-4(domestic-demand-driven EMs)being the most popular groupings.Despite their highly developed capital markets,Hong Kong and Singapore are often overlookedduring such categorizations as they are seldom traded
11、as standalone“markets”,due to their smallinternal economies.We think one important(and relevant)question is:Where do these twomarkets fit into the investment framework and what potential returns do they offer?Therefore,in this report,we take a deep dive to assess their investment case and future gro
12、wthpotential.Our key conclusions are:Investment case(similar):They are good vehicles to trade Asian EM growth.Fundamentally,they are increasingly connected to their fast-growing EM hinterlands on bothmacro and micro fronts.What makes them interesting and important is their DM qualities interms of in
13、frastructure,volatility,corporate governance,and liquidity,which imply that theymay offer EM growth opportunities in a better risk-adjusted manner thantheir hinterland markets in some cases.Fundamentals(similar):High single-digit growth driven by their hinterlands.Givenour positive long-term macro v
14、iews on China and the ASEAN region,we forecast 7%-8%trend EPS growth(ex-revaluation)for Hong Kong and Singapore over 2013E-2016E.Theirsimilar(in terms of magnitude)and non-tradable-oriented growth profiles also suggest thatmutually exclusive competition between the two Asian financial hubs is not im
15、minent yet,unlike Korea and Taiwan.Valuations(different):The strong Asian EM growth prospects are better valued inSingapore.While we remain strategically positive on both China and the ASEAN region,welike the idea of gaining ASEAN exposure through Singapore than trading China via HongKong.Singapore
16、is trading at historical lows versus the ASEAN-4 markets in terms of relativevaluations and vice versa for Hong Kong(vs.China).Our updated 12m targets for HSI,MXHK and FTSTI are 26,500,13,800 and 3,600,implying 13%,6%,and 10%potentialupside.Implementation(similar):Hinterland-oriented strategies.We t
17、hink the sustainableinvestment strategies in these two markets should align with their value proposition,which carriesa strong hinterland flavor and an emphasis on cash returns.We highlight hinterland growthproxies(GSSZHIHK for HK and GSSZHISG for SG)rather than pure domestic defensives/yieldideas,o
18、verlaying with quality,scarcity,and valuation considerations.Long-term opportunities(similar):A favorable growth backdrop.Chinas 12th 5-year plan(offshore RMB scheme,CEPA expansion)and the ASEANEconomic Community(AEC)Blueprint clearly define the strategic rolefor HK and SG,respectively,in this dynam
19、ic region and open up newgrowth frontiers for them.In the equity market,the confluence of what weview as three strong global trendssustainable Asian EM growth,continuingEM financial deepening,and DM capital relocation to Asiacould drive listedequity market cap at the two exchanges higher by around 4
20、0%-50%byend-2020,based on our assumptions.Key risks and potential policy response(similar):We see key risks revolving aroundtheir relationships with hinterlands,inflation,and internal issues posing challenges to HongKongs and Singapores future growth.We think policies focusing on expanding capacity,
21、attracting talents,nurturing R&D,and upgrading infrastructure are key to enhance theirproductivity,augment their status as regional/global financial centers,and monetize their EMopportunity.高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究,Dec-09,Dec-10,Dec-09,Dec-11,Dec-12,Jun-10,Jun-11,Jun-12,Dec-12,Dec-10,Jun-10,Dec-11,Jun-12,Jun-
22、11,0,0,0%,0%,-,-,13E,B,4,2013 年 2 月 21 日,亚太,Implementation ideasQuality hinterland baskets:GSSZHIHK and GSSZHISGExhibit 1:We identify stocks with high hinterland exposures and that screen well based on our quality filtersScreening criteria:ranking of aggregate z score based on:(a)direct hinterland r
23、evenue exposure;(b)3-year information ratio vs.localmarket;(c)3-year average dividend payout,and(d)3-year average FCF yields market average.Universe is based on MSCI and GSResearch coverage,GS/Consensus esti Rev.%,Past 3-year average,Listed Mkt,13E,Hinterland,Wgt,Cap,6M ADVT,GS,13E P/E,EPSg,(China/,
24、Info.,Payout,Bloomberg,Company,(%),(US$mn)(US$mn)Rating,(X),(%),ASEAN),Ratio,Ratio,FCFY,Hong Kong(GSSZHIHK)1928 HK Sands China,10.6%,39,610,42,B,18.0,69.6,100,4.5,35%,4%,200,GSSZHIHK,MXHK,MXCN,27 HK880 HK,Galaxy Entertainment GroupSJM Holdings,10.2%9.4%,18,59014,595,6213,BN,15.514.0,18.011.6,98100,1
25、0.06.7,0%51%,2%46%,17 HK4 HK10 HK54 HK316 HK69 HK522 HK551 HK590 HK1212 HK,New World DevelopmentWharf HoldingsHang Lung GroupHopewell HoldingsOrient Overseas InternationalShangri-La AsiaASM Pacific Technology Ltd.Yue Yuen IndustrialLuk Fook Holdings International Ltd.Lifestyle International Holdings
26、,8.9%8.9%8.3%7.1%7.1%7.0%6.9%5.8%4.9%4.9%,11,21026,3498,3543,9094,3057,2955,0665,7631,9754,123,30311255485104,B*BNNBNNCNB*B,13.116.517.424.215.028.120.510.211.015.3,10.09.24.5(10.0)14.35.592.19.313.310.6,54334861664645281820,0.41.70.10.70.80.90.7(0.2)4.61.2,14%8%13%17%208%26%67%40%42%40%,-3%0%1%7%6%
27、4%0%10%58%3%,15010050,0,0,-,Avg,16.8,19.8,55,2.5,43%,11%,0,0,MXHK 0,15.9,10.2,22,37%,2%,160,GSSZHISG,MXSG,MXSO,Singapore(GSSZHISG),JCNC SPFNN SPUOB SPOCBC SPGGR SPNOBL SPKEP SPCMA SPIFAR SP,Jardine Cycle&CarriageFraser&NeaveUnited Overseas BankOversea-Chinese Banking Corp.Golden Agri-Resources Ltd.N
28、oble Group LimitedKeppel CorpCapitaMalls Asia Ltd.Indofood Agri Resources,12.6%12.2%12.1%11.7%11.1%8.3%8.3%8.1%6.3%,14,89710,98024,82127,6837,0276,21116,9626,7721,519,844342335373193,NNRNNNBNNCB,12.618.611.313.511.69.012.531.39.4,7.618.02.0(34.7)31.552.9(12.5)26.829.6,91412929541494281,2.12.3(0.7)(0
29、.3)0.0(1.6)0.9(0.7)(1.7),43%29%42%46%19%38%47%18%0%,14%23%16%39%65%-19%29%-2%0%,140120100,CD SP ComfortDelGro Corp.Ltd.WINGT SP Wing Tai Holdings,3.3%3.1%,3,2301,278,52,NCB,15.48.6,0.832.1,819,(0.1)(0.0),50%28%,1%59%,80,UOL SP,UOL Group,3.0%,3,944,5,B,12.0,13.3,10,1.0,27%,7%,AvgMXSG,13.814.4,14.02.8
30、,3613,0.1-,32%43%,19%4%,*denotes stock is on our regional Conviction List.B=Buy,N=Neutral,NC=Not Covered,NR=Not Rated.Data for Fraser&Neave is based on I/B/E/S consensus.Note:We show underlying EPS growth for property stocks we cover,including New World Development(on fiscal year),Wharf,Hang Lung Gr
31、oup,Hopewell(on fiscalyear),Wing Tai Holdings(on fiscal year)and UOL Group(on fiscal year).Source:MSCI,FactSet,I/B/E/S,Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research,Goldman Sachs Research estimatesSingle stock picksExhibit 2:Stocks that screen well based on their hinterland exposure,scarcity value,valuations,an
32、d our analystsbottom-up viewsDividend,Hinterland Quality,growth at Below-,GS,Mkt Cap 6M ADVT 12m fP/E,P/E z-,13E DY,EPSg,rev.%,hinterland Scarcity reasonable mid-cycle,Bloomberg,Company,Rating,(US$mn)(US$mn),(X),score,(%),(%),(2011),proxies,value,price,valn,Hong Kong,1928HK,SandsChina,B,39,610 42 18
33、.7(0.7)3.8 69.6 100,1212HK,LifestyleInternationalHoldings,4,123 4 15.1(0.7)2.6 10.6 20,1299HK,AIAGroup,B*,48,770 194 16.4,1.3 8.2 9,Singapore,NOBLSPKEPSPUOLSP,NobleGroupLimitedKeppelCorpUOLGroup,BNB,6,211 37 9.3(0.6)3.4 52.9 1416,962 31 13.0 0.5 3.4(12.5)93,944 5 12.8 1.9 1.6 13.3 10,*denotes stock
34、is on our regional Conviction List.B=Buy,N=Neutral.Source:MSCI,FactSet,I/B/E/S,Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research,Goldman Sachs Research estimates高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究,1.,2.,3.,4.,5.,6.,5,2013 年 2 月 21 日,亚太,Why are we comparing Hong Kong and Singapore?While they are small island economies and lack natural r
35、esources,they are two of the mostadvanced economies in Asia ex Japan,with per capita GDP over US$45,000 on a PPPbasis(Exhibit 3).They are also the only two Developed Markets(DM)based on MSCIclassifications in the Asia ex-Japan equity universe.They are leading global service centers,with the financia
36、l industry representing asignificant part of their service outputs(Exhibit 4).Their monetary policies are US-dependent and they are facing significant assetinflationary issues domestically(Exhibit 5).Hong Kong and Singapore are fundamentally linked to their fast-growing andthematically-compelling hi
37、nterlands,China and ASEAN-4,respectively.Theserelationships are also evident in the equity markets as they tend to trade closely with theirhinterland markets(Exhibit 6).They tend to outperform their regional peers when global growth,as measured byour GLI,is challenged(Exhibit 7),possibly reflecting
38、the dynamics between their monetarysetup and their market cap concentration in property and banks(Exhibit 8).These common attributes and their achievements prompt us to examine Singapores/HKsfundamental qualities which may help in not only better understanding their forward growthtrajectory,but also
39、 shedding light on the key considerations when investing in other regionalmarkets which may consider following in their footsteps to move up the productivity curve.In this report,we focus on the following topics which we believe are key to getting a perspectiveon potential returns in the two markets
40、:Earnings:We examine their core competencies,macro-to-micro transmission mechanisms,profitability profile,and earnings drivers to form our medium-term EPS growth expectations,which we forecast to be around 7%to 8%over 2013E-2016E for both.Investment case:Combining our fundamental analysis,their mark
41、et characteristics andstrategic positioning,we conclude that they are efficient vehicles to trade Asian EM growth.Valuations:Comparison of their valuation profile in absolute,relative,and sum-of-the-partterms suggest that the strong Asian EM prospects are better valued in Singapore than in HK,consis
42、tent with our current market allocation preference.Strategies:We think the sustainable strategies in these two markets should revolve aroundtheir hinterlands where growth is essentially originated.We add quality,scarcity andvaluation filters to improve risk/reward.Long-term growth opportunities:Thei
43、r future path is dependent on the extent to whichthey might integrate into and benefit from their Asian EM neighbors.We see an encouraginggrowth scenario for both given their well-defined and favorable strategic roles.Given thesetrends,we forecast their equity market size to be about 40%-50%larger t
44、han today by end-2020.Risks:Select institutional constraints and challenges may prevent them from monetizingtheir EM linkages.We summarize the key risks which center on three main points:a)relationships with their hinterlands;b)inflation and cost competitiveness;and,c)political/socioeconomic issues.
45、高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究,Taiwan,India,HongKong,Philippines,Singapore,Malaysia,Korea,Thailand,HongKong,Philippines,Singapore,Indonesia,Malaysia,Singapore,HongKong,Malaysia,Thailand,Taiwan,China,India,Indonesia,Thailand,Korea,Taiwan,China,China,India,50%,40%,30%,6,2013 年 2 月 21 日Exhibit 3:HK and SG are the two
46、most advancedeconomies in Asia ex JapanGDP per capita(US$),2012,亚太Exhibit 4:Exhibit 10:The two city states are reliant ontertiary industries,and finance is a significant part of itServices as a%of GDP,2012,7000060000,GDP per capita,Nominal,PPP,100%90%,GDP by Service IndustryGDP by Financial Industry
47、(RHS),18%16%,50000400003000020000100000Source:CEIC,IMF,Goldman Sachs Global ECS ResearchExhibit 5:Both markets are facing asset inflationproblemsHousing-price-to-income ratio(X),80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%Source:CEIC,IMF,Goldman Sachs Global ECS ResearchExhibit 6:Their equity returns closely track th
48、eirhinterland marketsWeekly price return correlation(10-year,US$)0.95,14%12%10%8%6%4%2%0%,14,High/low,Current,Median,China,ASEAN,MXASJ,12108,0.90.85,60.8420.7500.7,Hong Kong,Singapore,*High,low and S.D.are based on data from 1Q 1994 to 2Q 2012;Taiwan data is from 1Q 2003,India data is from1997Source
49、:CEIC,Goldman Sachs Global ECS ResearchExhibit 7:They have tended to perform similarly indifferent economic phasesPrice returns during different business phases,Source:MSCI,FactSet,Goldman Sachs Global ECS ResearchExhibit 8:Market cap is highly concentrated in propertyand banksMarket cap breakdown,F
50、eb 18,2013,Since 1988ExpansionSlowdown,AbsoluteHong Kong Singapore3.4%3.6%0.6%0.6%,Relative to APJHong Kong Singapore0.1%0.3%0.3%0.3%,100%90%80%,OthersConsumer StaplesTransportation,ContractionRecovery,-2.9%0.7%,-2.9%-0.9%,0.0%1.2%,0.0%-0.4%,70%60%,TelecomUtilities,Since 2000ExpansionSlowdown,Absolu
