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1、3600,3200,2800,Anglo American,Deutsche BankMarkets Research,RatingBuyEuropeUnited Kingdom,CompanyAnglo American,Date28 January 2013Results,Metals&MiningMetals&Mining,ReutersAAL.L,BloombergAAL LN,Exchange TickerLSEAAL,Price at 25 Jan 2013(GBP)Price Target(GBP)52-week range(GBP),1,886.002,200.002,910.
2、00-1,664.00,4Q12 production:SA strikes mask abetter copper resultSome Copper improvement but Platinum and Iron ore performance weighsAnglo reported better-than-expected 4Q12 production from Met Coal,Copper,Diamonds and Platinum divisions.Weaker volumes were recorded by Nickel.Iron ore was down 28%qo
3、q but was 5%above DBe.Overall the downside toproduction due to strikes in South Africa masks a better production result fromCopper and Met coal.Upside to our valuation leads our Buy rating.,Grant SporreResearch Analyst(+44)20 754-Rob CliffordResearch Analyst(+44)20 754-,Tim ClarkResearch Analyst(+27
4、)11 775-,A mixed bag of results versus both DBe expectations and QoQ performanceBetter-than-expected production results were reported for Copper(+7%vsDBe),Diamonds(+19%),Platinum(+26%)and Met coal(+14%)offset byweaker results from the Nickel division(-26%).Thermal coal and Iron Ore werein line with
5、expectations,QoQ production improvements were reported inDiamonds(26%qoq),Copper(+10%)and Met Coal(+5%);but with Iron Ore(-,Key changesTarget PricePrice/price relative,2,230.00 to 2,200.00,-1.3%,28%),Platinum(-33%)and Nickel(-18%)reporting volume declines.Anglosresult will likely lead to continued g
6、roup cost pressure and relative to peers thiswas not a strong result,although expectations were low.,Limited newsflow expected until 1H13 resultsGiven the appointment of Mark Cutifani as CEO,we expect a quiet period fromAnglo until his first public comments at the interim results(100 day view).At,24
7、00200016001/10,7/10,1/11,7/11,1/12,7/12,the FY12 results we expect some noise on write-ups and impairments with a,De Beers write-up(US$7bn,co guidance)offset by write-downs of Platinum,FTSE 100 INDEX(Rebased),US$1bn,announced),Amapa(US$200m,DBe)and potentially Minas Rio.TheMinas Rio BV is US$8.5bn(D
8、Be),versus our valuation of US$1bn,thus a write-down is likely in our view but may not be to the extent of our estimates giventhe possible introduction of a JV partner as one way of de-risking the project.,Performance(%)AbsoluteFTSE 100 INDEX,1m0.35.5,3m1.58.3,12m-29.09.8,Earnings and NAV changes:Ea
9、rnings up c.4%,NAV down 2%Earnings changes reflect the better than expected Copper,Met Coal andDiamonds result offset by the weaker Platinum earnings and NPV assumedpost the operational review announced recently.Target price trimmed to 2200p,(29500 SAc);recommendation Buy,RisksOur price target refle
10、cts a valuation taking into consideration both DCF overlife-of-mine(9.5%WACC-Beta 1.25,ERP 4.5%,Rf 5%,COD 6%on a through-the-cycle target gearing of 30%)for core asset valuations and market values orpeer group multiples for non-core assets.We apply a 0.9x NAV multiple toreflect managements performan
11、ce relative to the broader Metals and Miningsector.Risks include stronger-than-expected operating currencies(Rand,A$)and lower commodity prices,in particular PGMs,copper and iron ore.Specificrisks include further cost increases or delays at Minas Rio,the implementationrisks of the Platinum operation
12、al review and delays to project approvalsForecasts And Ratios,Year End Dec 31DB EPS(USD)%ChangeP/E(DB EPS)(x),2010A4.010.0%10.3,2011A5.060.0%8.9,2012E1.753.3%17.1,2013E1.944.5%15.4,2014E2.23-5.1%13.4,Source:Deutsche Bank estimates,company data_Deutsche Bank AG/LondonDeutsche Bank does and seeks to d
13、o business with companies covered in its research reports.Thus,investors shouldbe aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors shouldconsider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.DISCLOSURES AND ANAL
14、YSTCERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.MICA(P)072/04/2012.,28 January 2013Metals&MiningAnglo American,Model updated:27 January 2013,Fiscal year end 31-Dec,2009,2010,2011,2012E,2013E,2014E,Running the numbers,Financial Summary,EuropeUnited KingdomMetals&MiningAnglo American,DB EPS(USD)Reported E
15、PS(USD)DPS(USD)BVPS(USD)Weighted average shares(m)Average market cap(USDm),2.081.970.0021.71,20233,937,4.015.230.6528.41,20649,759,5.065.100.7432.31,21054,238,1.751.440.7832.91,24437,070,1.941.940.7833.01,28438,262,2.232.230.8034.51,28438,262,Reuters:AAL.L,Bloomberg:AAL LN,Enterprise value(USDm),40,
16、223,51,756,64,162,48,163,52,685,56,944,Valuation Metrics,Buy,P/E(DB)(x)P/E(Reported)(x),13.614.4,10.37.9,8.98.8,17.120.7,15.415.4,13.413.4,Price(25 Jan 13)Target Price52 Week rangeMarket Cap(m),GBP 1,886.00GBP 2,200.00GBP 1,664.00-2,910.00GBPm 23,462USDm 37,070,P/BV(x)FCF Yield(%)Dividend Yield(%)EV
17、/Sales(x)EV/EBITDA(x)EV/EBIT(x),2.01nm0.01.99.114.7,1.845.01.61.94.96.0,1.146.01.72.15.66.8,0.93nm2.61.77.010.5,0.90nm2.61.56.48.9,0.86nm2.71.56.38.5,Company Profile,Income Statement(USDm),Anglo American plc is a globally diversified miningcompany.It has interests in diamonds,platinum,coal,copper,ni
18、ckel,zinc,iron ore,and industrial minerals.TheGroup has operations and developments in Africa,Europe,Australia,and South and North America.The companyfirst listed in London in 1999,and has been disposing onnon-core assets to create a more focused mining group.Anglos diamond and platinum assets diffe
19、rentiate it fromthe other diversified miners.Price Performance360032002800240020001600Jan 10Jul 10Jan 11Jul 11Jan 12Jul 12,Sales revenueGross profitEBITDADepreciationAmortisationEBITNet interest income(expense)Associates/affiliatesExceptionals/extraordinariesOther pre-tax income/(expense)Profit befo
20、re taxIncome tax expenseMinoritiesOther post-tax income/(expense)Net profitDB adjustments(including dilution)DB Net profitCash Flow(USDm)Cash flow from operations,20,8584,4324,4321,69202,740-407841,61204,0291,11748702,4251442,5694,087,27,96010,53210,5321,86608,666-1398221,57915411,0822,8091,57506,69
21、8-1,5685,1307,727,30,58011,40611,4061,96709,43918397718326411,0462,8601,75306,433-496,3849,362,29,1196,8366,8362,26604,570-523485-3904,4931,3851,25701,8513962,2474,890,35,6328,2538,2532,33705,916-773560005,7031,6541,55102,49902,4996,419,37,2418,9918,9912,29606,694-1,015678006,3571,8811,60302,87202,8
22、727,164,Anglo AmericanMargin Trends403020,FTSE 100 INDEX(Rebased),Net CapexFree cash flowEquity raised/(bought back)Dividends paidNet inc/(dec)in borrowingsOther investing/financing cash flowsNet cash flowChange in working capital,-4,561-47450-472-3711,282150,-5,2162,511-64-919-7881,8822,6220,-6,126
23、3,236-347-2,2224,6672995,6330,-5,620-73122-2,0852,081-6,587-7,3000,-6,731-31222-1,9370-373-2,6000,-7,756-59222-1,9330-1,015-3,5190,10,09,10 11EBITDA Margin,12E,13EEBIT Margin,14E,Balance Sheet(USDm)Cash and other liquid assetsTangible fixed assetsGoodwill/intangible assets,3,26935,1983,118,6,40139,8
24、102,695,11,73240,5492,682,4,63540,8872,627,2,03544,8812,627,51650,3402,627,Growth&Profitability,Associates/investmentsOther assets,6,8997,824,8,9158,835,8,8048,675,16,40210,122,16,84211,280,17,44811,520,40302010,252015,Total assetsInterest bearing debtOther liabilitiesTotal liabilities,56,30814,5061
25、3,73328,239,66,65613,58115,10428,685,72,44212,87316,38029,253,74,67214,22816,28230,510,77,66514,22817,14131,369,82,45116,22817,36333,591,0-10-20-30,09,10,11,12E,13E,14E,1050,Shareholders equityMinoritiesTotal shareholders equityNet debt,26,1211,94828,06911,237,34,2393,73237,9717,180,39,0924,09743,18
26、91,141,40,8893,27344,1629,593,42,4213,87646,29612,193,44,3004,56048,86015,712,Sales growth(LHS),ROE(RHS),Key Company Metrics,Solvency,Sales growth(%)DB EPS growth(%),-20.7-51.9,34.092.3,9.426.4,-4.8-65.5,22.411.0,4.514.9,504030,70605040,EBITDA Margin(%)EBIT Margin(%)Payout ratio(%)ROE(%),21.213.10.0
27、10.5,37.731.011.722.2,37.330.913.917.5,23.515.752.54.6,23.216.640.16.0,24.118.035.86.6,20100,09,10,11,12E,13E,14E,3020100,Capex/sales(%)Capex/depreciation(x)Net debt/equity(%)Net interest cover(x),22.12.740.06.7,18.92.818.962.3,20.33.22.6nm,19.32.521.78.7,18.92.926.37.7,20.83.432.26.6,Source:Company
28、 data,Deutsche Bank estimates,Net debt/equity(LHS)Grant Sporre+44 20 754-58170Page 2,Net interest cover(RHS),Deutsche Bank AG/London,28 January 2013Metals plus 17koz were placed on care and maintenance at Marikana mine.Below expectationsNickel(-17.8%qoq,-26.7%vs DBe):Production ceased at Loma de Niq
29、uel as aresult of the expiration of the remaining licenses in November 2012.The Barro Altoramp up has been slow as the line 1 furnace experienced a partial sidewall collapsein October 2012 and has been rebuilt,returning to capacity in December 2012.In line with expectationsIron ore(-27.9%qoq,+5.2%vs
30、 DBe):Kumba reported 4Q production of 9mt,slightly ahead of our expectations,driven largely by a good result at Kolomela(2.8mt,above nameplate).Export sales remain the driver of earnings and were,Deutsche Bank AG/London,Page 3,28 January 2013Metals&MiningAnglo Americandown 10%qoq at 9mt.Kumba noted
31、losing 5mt of production to the recent strikeaction.Overall,this is a weaker qoq result given the strikes but Kumba has usedwaste stripping teams to keep production levels up and has defended the strikeaction well.Finished inventories were down qoq at 3.7mt.We think that at theresults,Kumba will rel
32、ease guidance for lower sales given the lower inventories andwill have to increase cost guidance given slower waste stripping this quarter.TheMinas Rio project remains under capex review.First ore remains scheduled forbefore the end of 2014.Manganese ore(-1.4%qoq,+0.0%vs DBe):Production remained in
33、line with 3Q12as plant availability at similar levels continued at GEMCO.Manganese alloys(+17.7%qoq,+0.0%vs DBe)reflects the improved production off a low base atTEMCO after resumption of operations.Note that TEMCO is in a disposal process.Thermal coal(-2.8%qoq,+1.7%vs DBe):Export thermal from South
34、 Africa was up2.3%due to the continued ramp up at Zibulo that was partially offset by the closureof high-cost pits at Kleinkopje.The Eskom thermal coal production decreased 4.7%in 4Q12.Figure 1:Divisional production,4Q12a/4Q12e,4Q12a/3Q12,4Q12a/4Q12e,4Q12a/3Q12,Division,Measure,3Q12,4Q12a,4Q12 DBe,%
35、,%,Platinum segment,PlatinumPalladiumRhodiumCopperNickelGoldEquivalent refined PlatinumDiamonds(100%basis)Copper segmentNickel segment,troy ouncestroy ouncestroy ouncestonnestonnestroy ouncestroy ounces000 ctstonnestonnes,649,000392,10090,5002,7003,70038,500626,3006,375157,3009,000,703,800413,30091,
36、2002,5003,90018,600416,0008,051172,9007,400,493,451297,94869,6902,0532,81330,153330,0666,777161,56610,100,42.638.730.921.838.6-38.326.018.87.0-26.7,8.45.40.8-7.45.4-51.7-33.626.39.9-17.8,Iron ore&manganese,Iron OreManganese OreManganese Alloys,tonnestonnestonnes,12,496,900858,40052,000,9,012,500846,
37、80061,200,8,564,100846,80061,200,5.20.00.0,-27.9-1.417.7,Met coal,MetallurgicalThermalTotal,tonnestonnestonnes,4,495,7003,398,9007,894,600,4,580,0003,714,7008,294,700,4,383,0002,881,7007,264,700,4.528.914.2,1.99.35.1,Thermal coal,MetallurgicalRSA export thermalColombia export thermalRSA domestic-oth
38、erEskomTotal,tonnestonnestonnestonnestonnestonnes,04,555,3002,829,4001,530,5009,056,90017,972,100,04,659,1002,661,7001,594,5008,560,60017,475,900,04,345,6292,662,0001,477,5008,696,81517,181,944,nm7.20.07.9-1.61.7,nm2.3-5.94.2-5.5-2.8,Source:Deutsche Bank,Company data,Page 4,Deutsche Bank AG/London,1
39、Q08,2Q08,3Q08,4Q08,1Q09,2Q09,3Q09,4Q09,1Q10,2Q10,3Q10,4Q10,1Q11,2Q11,3Q11,4Q11,1Q12,2Q12,2Q12,3Q12,3Q12,1Q08,2Q08,3Q08,4Q08,1Q09,2Q09,3Q09,4Q09,1Q10,2Q10,3Q10,4Q10,1Q11,2Q11,3Q11,4Q11,1Q12,2Q12,3Q12,4Q12,1Q08,2Q08,3Q08,4Q08,1Q09,2Q09,3Q09,4Q09,1Q10,2Q10,3Q10,4Q10,1Q11,2Q11,3Q11,4Q11,1Q12,2Q12,3Q12,1
40、Q08,2Q08,3Q08,4Q08,1Q09,2Q09,3Q09,4Q09,1Q10,2Q10,3Q10,4Q10,1Q11,2Q11,3Q11,4Q11,1Q12,2Q12,3Q12,4Q12,1Q08,2Q08,3Q08,4Q08,1Q09,2Q09,3Q09,4Q09,1Q10,2Q10,3Q10,4Q10,1Q11,2Q11,3Q11,4Q11,1Q12,2Q12,3Q12,4Q12,1Q08,2Q08,3Q08,4Q08,1Q09,2Q09,3Q09,4Q09,1Q10,2Q10,3Q10,4Q10,1Q11,2Q11,3Q11,4Q11,1Q12,4Q12,4Q12,4Q12,2
41、8 January 2013Metals&MiningAnglo AmericanAnglos production history,Figure 2:Base metals production,rebased to 100,impliedquarterly history280240200160120,Figure 3:Amplats production,rebased to 100,impliedquarterly history22018014010060,2080,PlatinumRhodium,PalladiumCopper,Copper,Nickel,Zinc,Nickel,G
42、old,Source:Deutsche Bank,company dataFigure 4:Metallurgical coal production,rebased to 100,implied quarterly history140120100806040,Source:Deutsche Bank,company dataFigure 5:Thermal coal production,rebased to 100,implied quarterly history1251201151101051009590,Metallurgical,Thermal,Total,Thermal,Esk
43、om,Total,Source:Deutsche Bank,company dataFigure 6:Iron ore and manganese production,rebased to100,implied quarterly history18016014012010080604020-,Source:Deutsche Bank,company dataFigure 7:Diamond production,rebased to 100,impliedquarterly history120100806040200,Iron Ore,Manganese Ore,Manganese Al
44、loy s,Diamonds(100%basis),Source:Deutsche Bank,company dataDeutsche Bank AG/London,Source:Deutsche Bank,company data,Page 5,QS08,QD08,QM09,QJ09,QS09,QD09,QM10,QJ10,QS10,QD10,QM11,QJ11,QS11,QD11,QM12,QJ12,QS12,QD12,QS08,QD08,QM09,QJ09,QS09,QD09,QM10,QJ10,QS10,QD10,QM11,QJ11,QS11,QD11,QM12,QJ12,QS12,Q
45、D12,QS08,QD08,QM09,QJ09,QS09,QD09,QM10,QJ10,QS10,QD10,QM11,QJ11,QS11,QD11,QM12,QJ12,QS12,QD12,QS08,QD08,QM09,QJ09,QS09,QD09,QM10,QJ10,QS10,QD10,QM11,QJ11,QS11,QD11,QM12,QJ12,QS12,QD12,QS08,QD08,QM09,QJ09,QS09,QD09,QM10,QJ10,QS10,QD10,QM11,QJ11,QS11,QD11,QM12,QJ12,QS12,QD12,QS08,QD08,QM09,QJ09,QS09,Q
46、D09,QM10,QJ10,QS10,QD10,QM11,QJ11,QS11,QD11,QM12,QJ12,QS12,QD12,28 January 2013Metals&MiningAnglo AmericanComparing the production performance of the diversified miners,Figure 8:Annualised diversified miners coking coalproduction,QS08-QD12,Figure 9:Annualised diversified miners thermal coalproductio
47、n,QS08-QD12,504030,mt,175155135115,mt,95,20100,75553515,BHP Billiton,Anglo American,Rio Tinto,BHP Billiton,Anglo American,Rio Tinto,Source:Deutsche Bank,company dataFigure 10:Annualised diversified miners iron oreproduction,QS08-QD12,Source:Deutsche Bank,company dataFigure 11:Annualised diversified
48、miners copperproduction,QS08-QD12,350300250200150,mt,140012001000800,kt,100,500,600400,BHP BillitonAnglo American,Rio TintoVale,BHP Billiton,Rio Tinto,Anglo American,Source:Deutsche Bank,company dataFigure 12:Annualised diversified miners nickelproduction,QS08-QD12250200150100500,Source:Deutsche Ban
49、k,company dataFigure 13:Annualised diversified miners diamondsproduction,QS08-QD12kct300002500020000150001000050000,BHP Billiton,Anglo American,Anglo American,Rio Tinto,BHP Billiton,Source:Deutsche Bank,company dataPage 6,Source:Deutsche Bank,company data,Deutsche Bank AG/London,28 January 2013Metal
50、s&MiningAnglo AmericanInvestment ThesisOutlookAnglo is in a recovery phase post the operational challenges of 2012 and it is the timingof the recovery in demand for its products(diamonds and platinum),operationalimprovements(platinum,copper,nickel)and project delivery(met coal and Minas Rio)that wil
