《EVERGRANDE(03333.HK)：EVERGRANDE_A_NATIONWIDE_PROPERTY_DEVELOPER_INITIATE_WITH‘NEUTRAL’-2012-11-27.ppt》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《EVERGRANDE(03333.HK)：EVERGRANDE_A_NATIONWIDE_PROPERTY_DEVELOPER_INITIATE_WITH‘NEUTRAL’-2012-11-27.ppt（17页珍藏版）》请在三一办公上搜索。
1、CompanyReport,Evergrande恒大地产(3333HK),GTJAResearch国泰君安研究,Initial,40.0,30.0,20.0,10.0,0.0,8.1,Company Report:Evergrande(03333 HK)公司报告：恒大地产(03333 HK),Donald Yu 余立峰+86 755 23976686,27 November 2012Evergrande,A Nationwide Property Developer,Initiate With Neutral恒大地产，全国性房地产开发商，首予“中性”评级,Evergrandes scale o
2、f nationwide coverage is a unique advantage among Chinasproperty market.Standardization is Evergrandes core advantage supporting itsnationwide scale.At the end of June 2012,the Company had 142.28 million sq.m ofland bank in China.The Companys 218 residential projects were located in 121 citiesacross
3、 different product lines.Its low land cost provides reasonable profit margins for theCompany;the average land cost was only RMB 648 per sq.m in 1H2012.Profits Margins are expected to decline in the next 3 years.The Companysmarketing strategy restricts rises in its ASP in next 3 years.We believe the
4、cost of saleswill slightly increase while inflation rate may go higher.It is inevitable that profits marginwill face a downtrend.We estimate the Companys net gearing ratio will slightly decline to 82.0%.Due tothe Companys excellent sales performance and the expectation of less land acquisition;,Rati
5、ng:评级：6-18m TP 目标价:Share price 股价：Stock performance股价表现,Neutral中性(首次研究)HK$4.06HK$3.590,the Company is able to repay loans and hence the net gearing ratio will gradually declinein 2012 and 2014.,70.060.0,%of return,Neutral investment rating for Evergrande.The Companys nationwide coveragerelies on hig
6、h leverage,high land premium and fast sales mode.If the sales pace slowsdown,the Company will have serious liquidity problems.Therefore,we are concernedabout its financial position.In addition,high growth of home supplies in 3rd tier cities isalso the reason why we rate Evergrande Neutral.We set our
7、 target price at HKD4.06,which implies a 50%discount to its 2012E NAV of HKD8.05 per share,and is equivalentto 4.8x underlying 12PE and 1.3x 12PB.恒大的全国覆盖是其在中国房地产市场中的独特优势。标准化是支持恒大全国性规模的核,50.0(10.0)(20.0),心优势。截止到 2012 年六月份，公司有 142,28 万平方米的土地储备。其 218 个住宅项目,Nov-11,Feb-12HSI Index,May-12,Aug-12Evergrande
8、,Nov-12,以不同的产品系列分布在 121 个城市。其低成本的土地提供合理的利润水平；其截止到,2012 年 6 月的平均的土地成本为每平方米人民币 648 元。,Change in Share Price,1M,3M,1Y,预期利润率在未来三年下降。公司的市场营销策略限制其均价在未来 3 年内上升。我们相信销售成本会在通胀率可能上升的情况下轻微上升。利润率不可避免面临下降趋势。,股价变动Abs.%绝对变动%,1 个月6.8,3 个月9.1,1 年22.1,Rel.%to HS index,我们预计公司的净负债率会轻微下降至 82%。由于公司卓越的销售表现和更少的购地预期；公司能够偿还贷款
9、并因此净负债率会逐渐在 2012 至 2014 下降。,相对恒指变动%Avg.share price(HK$)平均股价（港元）,5.43.5,(0.9)3.2,(1.5)3.6,首予恒大“中性”的投资评级。公司的全国性覆盖依赖高杠杆，高未付土地款和快速销售。如果销售步伐放慢，公司的流动性将会有严重问题。因此，我们担心其财务状况。此外，三线城市的住房供应快速增长，也是我们给予恒大“中性”投资评级的原因。我们给予的目标价为港币 4.06 元，相当于其 2012E NAV 每股港币 8.05 元有 50%的折让，4.8 倍 12 年核心市盈率和 1.3 倍 12 年 PB。,Source:Bloom
10、berg,Guot ai Junan International,Underlying,Underlying,Underlying,Year End年结12/312010A2011A2012F2013F2014F,Turnover收入(RMB m)45,80161,91872,63681,92593,637,Net Profit股东净利(RMB m)7,58911,78511,49710,28111,839,EPS每股净利(RMB)0.3830.6100.6640.5880.681,EPS每股净利变动(%)1,141.659.48.8(11.4)15.8,PER市盈率(x)7.54.74.34
11、.94.2,BPS每股净资产(RMB)1.3762.1862.5383.1463.885,PBR市净率(x)2.11.31.10.90.7,DPS每股股息(RMB)0.1270.1890.0910.1410.188,Yield股息率(%)4.46.63.24.96.5,ROE净资产收益率(%)45.344.232.524.222.5,Shares in issue(m)总股数(m)Market cap.(HK$m)市值(HK$m)3 month average vol.3 个月平均成交股数(000)52 Weeks high/low(HK$)52 周高/低,14,970.053,742.382
12、,437.75.030/2.750,Major shareholder 大股东Free float(%)自由流通比率(%)FY12 Net gearing(%)FY12 净负债/股东资金(%)FY12 Est.NAV(HK$)FY12 每股估值（港元）,Hui Ka Yan(67.89%)32.1%88.0%,Sourcethe Company,Guotai Junan International.,See the last page for disclaimer,Page 1 of 17,27November2012,CompanyReport,Evergrande恒大地产(3333HK),
13、rate,IndustryPopulation,income and affordabilityAlthough population growth was slowing down during 1987-2011,the disposable income per capita of Chinas urbanhouseholds kept increasing sharply during 1985-2011,which is positive for the property market.As shown in theFigure-1,the China total populatio
14、n kept increasing in last 26 years.But the natural growth rate in 1987-2011 kept decreasing,from 16.61%to 4.79%.We estimate the growth rate of GDP will not return to double digits in next decade,but the Chinapopulation will keep increasing until 2020.On the other hand,the disposable income per capit
15、a of China urban householdskept increasing sharply at the CAGR of 13.0%in last 26 years.The urban households can afford more necessaries and theEngel coefficient of China urban households kept declining,form 53.3%to 36.3%.It shows that the life quality of China urbanhouseholds has upgraded.As the up
16、grade demand is increasing,we believe the upgrade demand among residents willemerge along with their ever rising income.,Figure-1:China total population and the natural growth,Figure-2:Disposable Income per capita and Engelcoefficient of China urban householdsDisposable Income Per Capita of China Ur
17、ban Household YTD(RMB LHS),China Total population(millions LHS),Natural growth rate(RHS),Engel coefficient of China Urban Household(%RHS),1,6001,4001,2001,000800,18.0016.0014.0012.0010.00,25,00020,00015,000,60.0050.0040.0030.00,8.00,60040020001985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 20
18、07 2009 2011Source:National Bureau of Statistics of China.,6.004.002.000.00,10,0005,00001985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011Source:National Bureau of Statistics of China.,20.0010.000.00,Investment,supply and liquidityFrom 3Q2010,the Chinese government introduced HPR
19、policies and property curbs.The growth of property sales and newconstruction pace has been slowing down.The YoY growth of cumulative commodity house sales dropped from 18.3%in4Q2010 to 5.6%in Oct.2012;the YoY growth of cumulative new construction area of commodity houses dropped from 40.7%in 4Q2010
20、to-8.5%in Oct.2012.The comparatively loosened credit control for property industry strengthens confidence in the property market:1.The YoY growth of cumulative new construction area rebounded and recorded 8.5%YoY decline in Jan-Oct,which wasbetter than 9.8%YoY decline in Jan-July.(see Figure 3)2.The
21、 YoY growth of cumulative real estate development loans in 3Q2012 rebounded to 11.0%from 6.3%in 1Q2012,thelowest point in the last 5 years.(see Figure 4)3.Moreover,sales performance has been improving as well.The cumulative commodity house sales in Jan-October 2012exceeded that of in the same period
22、 in 2011.(see Figure 3)4.The cumulative investment from domestic loans posted 15.0%YoY growth during Jan-Oct 2012,compared to that of2011.It indicated that the domestic loans for real estate market was increasing.Additionally,the cumulative investmentfrom presales and down payment recorded 16.1%YoY
23、increase,compared to that of 2011.We should note that thegrowth of the cumulative investment from presales and down payment was negative from Feb to May.(see Figure 5)We believe the sales rebound and the comparatively loosened credit control for property industry enhance itsdevelopment outlook.,See
24、the last page for disclaimer,Page 2 of 17,CompanyReport,Evergrande恒大地产(3333HK),27November2012,YoY%,%,Figure-3:The YoY growths of new construction area ofcommodity house and commodity house salesCumulative newly construction area of commodity house(YTD YoY%),Figure-4:The YoY growths of real estate de
25、velopmentloansThe Growth of cumulative real estate development loans,10080604020,Cumulative sales of commodity house(YTD YoY%),403530252015,(YoY%)37.80,31.15,0-20-40,1050,10.30,11.006.30,2004 2005 2006 2006 2007 2008 2008 2009 2010 2010 2011 2012,Source:National Bureau of Statistics of China.,Source
26、:National Bureau of Statistics of China.,Figure-5:The YoY growths of cumulative investment from domestic loans and cumulative investment frompresales and down paymentThe YoY growths of cumulative investment from domestic loansThe YoY growths of cumulative investment from presales and down payment120
27、100806040200(20)(40),2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,Source:National Bureau of Statistics of China.Property sales and ASP2012 sales to grow on the release of rigid demand.We monitor 10 main cities in China as our measure of the direction ofthe property market trend.Due to the stringent credit con
28、trol at the beginning of 2012,transactions in property market droppedrapidly.However,since then,the Peoples Bank of China has lowered the RRR by 0.5%twice in 2012 and cut benchmarkinterest rates for deposits and loans by 25 basis points in June;some commercial banks now offer a 15%discount offmortga
29、ge rates for first home buyers.The liquidity in the property market improved fundamentally in 1H2012.The propertysales rebounded gradually after the first RRR cut in 2012.The preferential mortgage rate for first home buyers was thecatalyst for the sales rebound.The second RRR cut accelerated the boo
30、ming sales in June and July.Lower interest rate,andlower ASP are the crucial factors supporting the growth of property sales in 2012 and the trend may even continue in 2013.,See the last page for disclaimer,Page 3 of 17,CompanyReport,Evergrande恒大地产(3333HK),27November2012,0,0,Figure-6:Weekly Transact
31、ion Volume and ASP in Beijing Figure-7:Weekly Transaction Volume and ASP inShanghai,10,000 sq.m,Transaction Volume,ASP,RMB/sq.m,10,000 sq.m,Transaction Volume,ASP,RMB/sq.m,6050,25,00020,000,6050,25,00020,000,403020,15,00010,000,403020,15,00010,000,100,5,0000,100,5,0000,Week 1,Week 16,Week 31,Week 46
32、,week 11,week 26,week 41,Week 1,Week 16,Week 31,Week 46,week 11,week 26,week 41,Source:CREIS.Figure-8:Weekly Transaction Volume and ASP inGuangzhou,Source:CREIS.Figure-9:Weekly Transaction Volume and ASP inShenzhen,10,000 sq.m,Transaction Volume,ASP,RMB/sq.m,10,000 sq.m,Transaction Volume,ASP,RMB/sq
33、.m,403530252015105,16,00014,00012,00010,0008,0006,0004,0002,000,1412108642,35,00030,00025,00020,00015,00010,0005,000,0Week 1,Week 16,Week 31,Week 46,week 11,week 26,week 41,0Week 1,Week 16,Week 31,Week 46,week 11,week 26,week 41,Source:CREIS.Figure-10:Weekly Transaction Volume in Hangzhou,Source:CRE
34、IS.Figure-11:Weekly Transaction Volume in Suzhou,10,000 sq.m4035,Transaction Volume,10,000 sq.m6050,Transaction Volume,30,2520151050,403020100,Week 1,Week 16,Week 31,Week 46,week 11,week 26,week 41,Week 1,Week 16,Week 31,Week 46,week 11,week 26,week 41,Source:CREIS.See the last page for disclaimer,S
35、ource:CREIS.,Page 4 of 17,CompanyReport,Evergrande恒大地产(3333HK),27November2012,Figure-12:Weekly Transaction Volume and ASP inNanjing,Figure-13:Weekly Transaction Volume and ASP in Tianjin,10,000 sq.m,Transaction Volume,ASP,RMB/sq.m,10,000 sq.m,Transaction Volume,ASP,RMB/sq.m,25,15,50015,000,7060,16,0
36、0014,000,20,14,500,50,12,000,151050,14,00013,50013,00012,50012,00011,500,403020100,10,0008,0006,0004,0002,0000,Week 1,Week 16,Week 31,Week 46,week 11,week 26,week 41,Week 1,Week 16,Week 31,Week 46,week 11,week 26,week 41,Source:CREIS.Figure-14:Weekly Transaction Volume and ASP inChongqing,Source:CRE
37、IS.Figure-15:Weekly Transaction Volume and ASP inChengdu,10,000 sq.m,Transaction Volume,ASP,RMB/sq.m,10,000 sq.m,Transaction Volume,ASP,RMB/sq.m,8070605040,9,0008,0007,0006,0005,000,504540353025,7,7007,6007,5007,4007,3007,200,4,000,3020100,3,0002,0001,0000,20151050,7,1007,0006,9006,8006,700,Week 1,W
38、eek 16,Week 31,Week 46,week 11,week 26,week 41,Week 1,Week 16,Week 31,Week 46,week 11,week 26,week 41,Source:CREIS.,Source:CREIS.,Although it seems that the property market conditions have improved,we are still concerned that the industry willface some problems:1)supply still exceeds demand,or we ca
39、n say that the higher ASP of commodity houses should form abarrier,thus its hard to attract rigid demand in the future.At least the ASP in 2-3 tier cities could decline in the future;2)keener competition has just begun.The more choice for customers,the keener the competition;3)the ASP decline willer
40、ode profit margins;4)credit tightening measures and property curbs will remain in force,therefore the growth of propertysector will become more stable.,See the last page for disclaimer,Page 5 of 17,27November2012,CompanyReport,Evergrande恒大地产(3333HK),rd,Company OverviewCompany ProfileEvergrande Group
41、(03333.HK)(“Evergrande”or the“Company”)together with its subsidiaries focuses on the residentialproperty industry and integrates the commercial property,tourist complex,sports industry and cultural industry.The Companymainly focuses on property developments and insists employing standardization to o
42、ptimize its business operation.Business Overview1997-1999:A project developerThe Company commenced its property development business in Guangzhou.In 1997,the Company developed its first projectJinbi Garden in Guangzhou.The Company was benefiting from its low price strategy and fast construction pace
43、.The sales ofJinbi Garden were satisfactory.The project became a foundation of its development strategy:affordable pricing tactic,shortdevelopment period,fast construction pace and quick pre-sales with high sales-through rate.2000-2005:A regional property developerThe Company started to develop seve
44、ral projects at the same time in Guangdong Province.A series of projects under thename of Jinbi,such as Jinbi Palace,Jinbi New City and Jinbi Century Garden,were developed.Meanwhile,the Company hadto optimize its management of resources integration and development standardization.These supported the
45、 Companysfurther development in the future.2006-2011:A nationwide property developerThe Company entered more than 100 cities and developed more than 200 projects and was listed in HKEx.The Companysbrand and scale became its advantages.The Company has further improved the standardized operation mode,
46、has graduallyndformed seven enterprise core advantages with the most competitiveness,and has achieved rapid expansion in the 2 and 3tier cities in China.After many years of practice and adjustment,its standardized operation mode has been substantiated tobe very effective,contributing to its sustaina
47、ble leap-forward development.Up to now,the Company has become a leadingreal estate enterprise with the most sales area,the largest in-progress quantities,and a presence in the largest number ofprovincial capital cities and the widest urban layout in China.Business AnalysisStandardization is Evergran
48、des core advantage supporting its nationwide scale Evergrandes standardization supportsits strong execution ability.The Company standardized 7 factors in management:management mode,project selection,planning and design,materials used,project bidding,project marketing and project management.The Compa
49、nys structureincludes 3 tiers of management system:the board of directors,group tier and regional company tier.The structure ensuresgroup tier totally understand the boards decision and executes unified management of the regional companies.It is thefoundation of Evergrandes strong execution ability.
50、The standardization of planning and design helps the Company reduceprocessing time and resources of complicated planning and design process and formulates 150 standard apartment layouts.Due to large volumes of materials are used for construction,gardening,decoration and living supporting facilities,
