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1、,th,th,th,The C,SWSResearchCo.Ltd99EastNanjingRoad,Shanghai|+,IndustryResearchJan31,2013NeutralUnchangedAnalystRongYeA0230512110001AYZ033ContactWennieLv(8621)RelatedReportsChinaCementSectorFieldtripfeedbackV:S&DdynamicsinBeijingTianjinHebeiareapoisedtoimprovein2013,7 Dec2012ChinaCementSectorPreCNYpr
2、icecollapsealongYangtzeRiverunlikely,Southernmarketpricesmostvulnerable,26thNov2012ChinaCementSectorEarlysignsofpricecorrections,timetotakeprofit,12 Nov2012ChinaCementSectorFieldtripfeedbackIV:fundamentalscontinuetosurpriseontheupside,6 Nov2012Chi company doesSnot hold anyequities or derivatives of
3、the listedcompany mentioned in this report(“target”),but then we shall providefinancial advisory services subject tothe relevant laws and regulations.Any affiliates of the company mayhold equities of the target,whichmay exceed 1 percent of issuedshares subject to the relevant laws,TheChineseViewonCh
4、inaChinaCementSector2012annualresultspreview:CNBMtobeatexpectationsInvestmentHighlights:Summary:We expect HKlisted cement companies to post a 20%80%YoY decline in 2012 earnings,with the biggest upside surprise coming from CNBM mainly due to higherthanexpected margins in its Southwest Cement in 4Q12.
5、Where we differ from consensus:CNBM(3323 HK):2012 earnings to beat,2013 Southwest region margin upside We expect CNBM to deliver 2012 sales of 230M tonnes,with cement product GP of RMB 67/T.We therefore expect the bottom line to decline 21%YoY,with EPS of RMB 1.17(18%higher than BB consensus).CNBM l
6、ikely consolidated c.90M T of cement capacity through Southwest Cement last year,withtotal capacity therefore reaching 350M T(+35%YoY).Looking forward,we seefurther margin upside in the Southwest China cement market due to improving pricediscipline on higher market concentration.Anhui ConchH(914 HK)
7、:2012 earnings in line,2013 recovery scenario pricedin We expect Anhui Conch to deliver 2012 sales volume of 188M T with unit GP ofRMB 66/T.As such,we expect the bottom line to decline 46%YoY in 2012.Using 13x 13E P/E,we estimate that the current share price has factored in 2013 GP/T of RMB90,which
8、is RMB 25 higher than the figure of RMB 66 seen in 2012.We believe arecovery has been priced into ConchH shares.Shanshui Cement(691 HK):2012 earnings 6%below consensus,margin dilution risk in 2013 We expect Shanshui to deliver 2012 sales volume of 57M T,with GP/T ofRMB 67.As such,we expect the botto
9、m line to decline 36%YoY in 2012.Shanshui has 10 production lines under construction with 78 lines to be launched in 2013.As such,lower margins in Shanxi/Inner Mongolia and higher costs during the trial period willlikely dilute the companys overall GP/T in 2013.West China Cement(2233 HK):2012 earnin
10、gs 9%below consensus,supply risksin 2013 We expect WCC to deliver 2012 sales volume of 15M T,with GP/T of RMB 49.As such,we expect bottom line to decline 37%YoY in 2012.Recent channel checks indicate that new supply in 2013 is likely to exceed expectations.We believe higherthanexpected new capacity
11、will be a challenge for price discipline in Shaanxi.Asia Cement China(743 HK):2012 earnings in line,2013 earnings leveraged to Central/Eastern China We expect ACC to deliver 2012 sales volume of 23M T,with GP/T of RMB 47.We therefore expect the bottom line to decline 78%YoY in 2012.70%of the company
12、s sales are in the mid/lower regions of the Yangtze River(Central/Eastern China),where we expect to see incremental improvements in 2013.,and regulations.The company mayalso provide investment bankingservices to the target.The Companyfulfills its duty of disclosure within itssphere of knowledge.The
13、clients,Company,Sales volume,MT,2012GP,RMB/T,2012 EPS preview,RMB,%YoY,2012 EPS consensus Risk vs consensus,may forrelevant disclosure materials or loginto underdisclosure column for furtherinformation.The clients shall have acomprehensive understanding of thedisclosure and disclaimer upon thelast p
14、age.,Anhui Conch,914 HKCNBM,3323 HKShanshui,691 HKWCC,2233 HKACC,743 HK,188230571523,6667674947,1.181.170.510.090.19,46%21%36%37%78%,1.210.990.550.100.20,3%18%6%9%3%,Jan31,2013,投资要点：摘要：我们预计香港上市的水泥公司整体将有大约 20%-80%的 2012 年报净利润同比下滑。其中我们认为中国建材受益于西南水泥高于预期的 4 季度盈利，2012 年净利将超预期 18%。有别于大众的不同之处：中国建材（3323 HK）
15、：2012 年业绩超预期，2013 年将受益于西南水泥毛利改善 我们预测中国建材 2012 年销售量为 2.3亿吨，水泥吨毛利 67 元/吨。预计公司 2012 年的净利将同比下降 21%，对应每股收益 1.17 元（高出彭博一致预期 18%）。中国建材通过南方水泥在去年收购了 9000 万吨左右的水泥产能，使得其总产能达到近 3.5 亿吨，同比增长约 35%。我们认为未来西南市场集中度提高将进一步改善协同效果和提价能力，西南地区水泥市场有进一步上行机会，利好西南水泥。海螺水泥（914 HK）：2012 年盈利符合预期，2013 年复苏预期已经反映在股价中 我们预计海螺水泥 2012 年的销售
16、量为 1.88 亿吨，水泥吨毛利为 66元/吨。预计公司 2012 年的净利将同比下降 46%。按 13 倍的 2013 年市盈率测算，海螺当前的股价隐含了 90 元/吨的 2013 年吨毛利，这比 2012 年平均 66元/吨的水平高出了 25 元左右。我们认为 2013 年的复苏情形已经被反应在当前的股价当中。山水水泥（691 HK）：2012 年盈利或低于市场一直预期 11%，2013 年吨毛利提升有挑战 我们预计山水水泥 2013 年的销售量为 5700 万吨，水泥吨毛利为 67 元/吨。预计公司 2012 年净利同比下滑 36%。公司目前有 10 条生产线在建：山东 1 条，内蒙古
17、2 条，东北 2 条，山西 5 条。其中 7-8 条将会在2013 年投产。因此，山西/内蒙古较低的吨毛利和在调试阶段更高的生产成本将很可能摊薄公司 2013 年的平均吨毛利。西部水泥（2233 HK）：2012 年盈利或低于市场预期 9%，2013 年面临供给压力 我们预计西部水泥 2012 年的销售量为 1500 万吨，水泥吨毛利为 49元/吨。因此，我们预计西部水泥的 2012 年的净利将同比下降 37%。我们近期调研发现 2013 年陕西地区的新增产能可能会高于预期。我们认为高于预期的新产能释放将会给区域价格协同带来挑战。亚洲水泥（中国）（743 HK）：2012 年盈利符合预期，20
18、13 年盈利将受益华中/华东市场的改善 我们预计山水水泥 2013 年的销售量为 2300 吨，水泥吨毛利为 47 元/吨。预计公司 2012 年净利同比下滑 78%。公司 70%的销售量来源于长江中下游地区（华中/华东），而我们认为该区域水泥市场的供求关系在 2013 年将会有改善。,IndustryResearchBuildin,Pleaserefertothelastpageforimportantdisclosures,Page1,Jan31,2013,IndustryResearchBuildin Table of Contents Summary 1CNBM(3323HK):201
19、2earningstobeat,2013Southwestregionmarginupside 1Anhui ConchH(914 HK):2012 earnings in line,2013 recoveryscenariopricedin 3ShanshuiCement(691HK):2012earnings6%belowconsensus,margindilutionriskin2013 4West China Cement(2233 HK):2012 earnings 9%belowconsensus,supplyrisksin2013 5Asia Cement China(743 H
20、K):2012 earnings in line,2013earningsleveragedtoCentral/EasternChina 6,Pleaserefertothelastpageforimportantdisclosures,Page2,Jan31,2013,IndustryResearchBuildin Chart&Table Fig 1:We see 18%upside for CNBMs 2012 earnings.1Fig 2:Southwest Cement is likely to post higherthanexpected unit GP in 4Q12.1Fig
21、 3:Cement margins in Southwest are among the lowest in China.2Fig 4:We expect Conch to deliver sales volume of 54M T with unit GP of RMB 82 in 4Q12.3Fig 5:ConchHs current share price has factored in 2013 unit GP of RMB90.3Fig 6:We expect Shanshui to deliver sales volume of 32M T with unit GP of RMB
22、63 in 2H12.4Fig 7:Benchmark prices dropped HoH in Shanshuis core markets in 2H12.4Fig 8:Shanshui has 10 production lines under construction.4Fig 9:We expect WCC to deliver sales volume of 8.6M T with unit GP of RMB50 in 2H12.5Fig 10:We expect railways alone to drive 1.5M T of cement demand in Shaanx
23、i in 2013.5Fig 11:We expect 8M T of new capacity to commence production in 2013 in Shaanxi.5Fig 12:We expect ACC to deliver sales volume of 13M T with unit GP of RMB47 in 2H12.6Fig 13:Benchmark cement prices dropped HoH in ACCs core markets in 2H2012.6,Pleaserefertothelastpageforimportantdisclosures
24、,Page3,Jan31,2013,IndustryResearchBuildinSummaryWe expect HKlisted cement companies to post a 20%80%decline in 2012 earnings,with the biggest upside surprise coming from CNBM mainly due to higherthanexpected margins in southwest cement market in 4Q12.Fig 1:We see 18%upside for CNBMs 2012 earnings.,C
25、ompany,Sales volume,MT,2012GP,RMB/T,2012 EPS preview,RMB,%YoY,2012 EPS consensus Risk vs consensus,Anhui Conch,914 HKCNBM,3323 HKShanshui,691 HKWCC,2233 HKACC,743 HK,188230571523,6667674947,1.181.170.510.090.19,46%21%36%37%78%,1.210.990.550.100.20,3%18%6%9%3%,Source:Bloomberg,SWSResearch CNBM(3323HK
26、):2012earningstobeat,2013SouthwestregionmarginupsideWe expect CNBM to deliver 2012 sales of 230M tonnes,with cement product unit GP of RMB 67/T.We therefore expect the bottom line to decline 21%YoY,with EPS of RMB 1.17(18%higher than BB consensus).Fig 2:Southwest Cement is likely to post higherthane
27、xpected unit GP in 4Q12.,Blended,RMB/TVolume,MASPACPGP/T,1Q1130314211102,2Q1153315205110,3Q1148306204102,4Q115332823989,1Q123629122665,2Q126026519966,3Q126325319557,4Q12E7226318677,2012 E23026519867,CU,Volume ASPACPGP,10.629820890,1929219696,1529320885,1628020476,1027421460,1825919268,1625619066,182
28、6018872,6226119467,SC,Volume ASPACPGP,18.1327219108,27345213132,26330224106,3033424589,1829723760,2826119962,3023119041,3525017575,11125519560,NC,Volume ASPACPGP,123520035,627820870,5338211127,6361202159,2.4347217130,7353217137,7360243117,8343238105,24351231120,SW,Volume ASPACPGP,328124041,5.8281251
29、30,721617343,1023718750,1125418272,3424619352,Source:Companydata,SWSResearch,Pleaserefertothelastpageforimportantdisclosures,Page1,Fujian,Ningxia,Zhejiang,Guizhou,Yunnan,Chongqing,Sichuan,Guangdong,Jiangsu,Hainan,Jilin,Qinghai,Shanxi,Shaanxi,Hebei,Nationalaverage,Guangxi,Anhui,Shandong,Henan,InnerMo
30、ngolia,Xinjiang,Hubei,Jiangxi,Hunan,Gansu,Liaoning,Heilongjiang,Jan31,2013,IndustryResearchBuildinCNBM likely consolidated c.90M T of cement capacity through Southwest Cement in 2012,with total capacity therefore reaching 350M T(+35%YoY).Looking forward,we see further margin upside in the Southwest
31、China cement market due to improving price discipline on higher market concentration.Cement margins in Southwest are among the lowest in China,with limited downside risks due to cost support.More specially,we expect CNBM to raise its share of the Sichuan market from 9%in 2011 to 30%in 2013.Higher ma
32、rket concentration is improving the companys pricing power.As such,Southwest Cements unit GP has improved from RMB 37/T in 1H12 to RMB 60/70 per tonne in 3Q/4Q12,with further upside potential in 2013 as the margin cycle turns and the Southwest China market sees further consolidation.Fig 3:Cement mar
33、gins in Southwest are among the lowest in China.Gross margin of cement producers(%)30252015105Source:NBS,SWSResearch,Pleaserefertothelastpageforimportantdisclosures,Page2,Jan31,2013,AnhuiConchH(914HK):2012earningsinline,2013recoveryscenariopricedinWe expect Anhui Conch to deliver 2012 sales volume o
34、f 188M T with unit GP of RMB 66/T.As such,we expect the bottom line to decline 46%YoY in 2012.Fig 4:We expect Conch to deliver sales volume of 54M T with unit GP of RMB 82 in 4Q12.RMB,Per tonne,IndustryResearchBuildin,1Q12,2Q12,3Q12,4Q12E,2012E,Volume MASPACPGPOtherSg&A Finance costs Associates/Enti
35、tiesProfit before taxation Tax rateTax/TMinoritiesNP/TNP M RMBEPS,332691987110.524.76.30.150.023.3%11.70.437.91,2490.24,48246181653.621.95.10.141.814.3%6.00.835.01,6680.31,53219169492.920.85.00.326.024.8%6.50.519.01,0180.19,54248166822.922.05.00.157.924.0%13.90.843.22,3440.44,188243176664.423.05.30.
36、143.420.0%8.71.033.46,2791.18,Source:Companydata,SWSResearch Using 13x 13E P/E,we estimate that the current share price has factored in 2013 GP/T of RMB 90,which is RMB c.25 higher than the figure of RMB 66 seen in 2012.We believe a recovery has been priced into ConchH shares.Fig 5:ConchHs current s
37、hare price has factored in 2013 unit GP of RMB90.,2013 PE multiple,2013 GP,RMB/T,2013 volume,M,17.1195200205210215,7020.0 x19.5x19.1x18.6x18.2x,7518.0 x17.5x17.1x16.7x16.3x,5037.6x36.6x35.7x34.9x34.1x,8514.9x14.5x14.1x13.8x13.5x,9013.7x13.3x13.0 x12.7x12.4x,Source:SWSResearch,Pleaserefertothelastpag
38、eforimportantdisclosures,Page3,Jan31,2013,ShanshuiCement(691HK):2012earnings6%belowconsensus,margindilutionriskin2013We expect Shanshui to deliver 2012 sales volume of 57M T,with GP/T of RMB 67.As such,we expect the bottom line to decline 36%YoY in 2012.Fig 6:We expect Shanshui to deliver sales volu
39、me of 32M T with unit GP of RMB 63 in 2H12.,IndustryResearchBuildin,RMB/T,M T,1H09,2H09,1H10,2H10,1H11,2H11 1H20122H2012E,2012E,VolumesASPACPGPOtherSg&AFinanceExpensesEarning before tax%taxesTaxesMinoritiesunit NPNP TOTAL,Rmb MEPS,17234183503209292523%5.70.218.73100.11,21229184454168242525%6.30.518.
40、43920.14,21225179463158232624%6.30.419.24040.14,28253197560217282928%8.00.620.45750.21,26302207951199286827%18.41.547.81,2370.44,293112219063113455231%16.01.734.09880.35,252932207341817364127%11.01.228.97280.26,322732106332113343229%9.41.221.86970.25,572822146732015353628%101.2251,4250.51,Source:Com
41、panydata,SWSResearch Fig 7:Benchmark prices dropped HoH in Shanshuis core markets in 2H12.,PO42.5 VAT incl.RMB/T,1Q12,2Q12,3Q12,4Q12,1H12,2H12 HoH Chg,ShandongLiaoning,400425,389439,357419,356410,394432,361420,3312,Source:DigitalCement,SWSResearch Shanshui has 10 production lines under construction:
42、1 in Shandong,2 in Inner Mongolia,2 in Northeast China,5 in Shanxi,with 78 lines to be launched in 2013.As such,lower margins in Shanxi/Inner Mongolia and higher costs during the trial period will likely dilute the companys overall GP/T in 2013.Fig 8:Shanshui has 10 production lines under constructi
43、on.,RegionShandong 山东Shanxi 山西Innier Mongolia 内蒙古Liaoning 辽宁Jilin 吉林,Subsidiary临朐山水水泥有限公司临汾山水晋城山水合聚水泥有限公司山西离石山水（亿龙水泥）朔州山水武乡山水乌兰浩特市山水水泥有限公司阿旗山水二期朝阳喀左工源山水水泥白山山水水泥有限责任公司,Production line,mtpd5000450045004500450025003000320050005000,Expected production date1H20132013Feb13 Jul 201320132013/142013201320142
44、013/14,Source:Companydata,SWSResearch,Pleaserefertothelastpageforimportantdisclosures,Page4,2,2,2,2,Jan31,2013,IndustryResearchBuildinWestChinaCement(2233HK):2012earnings9%belowconsensus,supplyrisksin2013We expect WCC to deliver 2012 sales volume of 15M T,with GP/T of RMB 49.As such,we expect bottom
45、 line to decline 37%YoY in 2012.Fig 9:We expect WCC to deliver sales volume of 8.6M T with unit GP of RMB50 in 2H12,RMB/T,MTVolume,000ASPACPGPOther IncomeSg&AFinance costExpensensEarning before taxTax%Tax/TMinoritiesNP/T,20095,07529917312614184865.873.912%9065,20109,90029917912017211031.1106.812%131
46、93,201111,7002731977623181533.365.213%9057,1H2012A6,4002482014710181128.42920%60.323,2H2012E8,600245195501619927.53918%70.331,2012E15,0002522004914181027.934.518.6%60.328,NP toal,RMB MSource:Companydata,SWSResearch,330,925,662,148,269,417,Looking ahead to 2013,we expect demand growth to accelerate t
47、o 8%from 5%in 2012.We see a rapid increase in infrastructure projects breaking ground(e.g.rail,hydro,highways).In particular,we expect railways alone to drive 1.5M T of cement demand(c.2.0%of 2012 total output)in 2013.Fig 10:We expect railways alone to drive 1.5M T of cement demand in Shaanxi in 201
48、3.,Railway西成高铁西合铁路,length,kg,343253,Cement intensity,t/kg13,0006,000,Total demand,MT,42,Constructionperiod,yrs,43.5,Annaul demand,MT,1.110.43,Source:SWSResearch On the supply side,we expect new capacity to grow 9.3%in 2013 from 5.6%in 2012.Recent channel checks indicate that new supply is likely to
49、exceed expectations.We expect 8M T of new capacity to commence production in 2013 in Shaanxi,chiefly in 1H13,higher than our previous expectation of 56M T.We believe higherthanexpected new capacity will be a challenge for price discipline.Fig 11:We expect 8M T of new capacity to commence production
50、in 2013 in Shaanxi.,New line海螺乾县声威富平生态水泥 I富平生态水泥 II,Target marketWesternCentralShaanxiCentralShaanxiEasternCentralShaanxiEasternCentralShaanxi,Capacity mtpd5000500050005000,Annual mtpa,Expected commencement time2013afterCNY1H201320132013,Source:SWSResearch,Pleaserefertothelastpageforimportantdisclos
