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1、,Price,Telecoms,Media&TechnologyAsia TechnologyAsia Technology:CES 2013Lots of new products,littledifferentiation.CommoditizationacceleratingBeneficiary companies from CES 2013 themes_ 2013e _,abcGlobal Research Focusing on ultra high def(UHD)andOLED TVs,touch notebooks,large 5”phones and smaller 7”
2、tabs Semiconductor announcements confirmquad-core to go mainstream this year Limited differentiation supports ouraccelerating commoditization thesisThe bigger the better:The HSBC Asia Tech team was atthe recently concluded CES 2013 during 8-11 January.Theevent was well-attended,with over 3,000 exhib
3、itors and,Ticker Company Rating,TP PE(x)PB(x)ROE,150,000 attendees from more than 140 countries.The,2409 TT2454 TT3545 TT005930 KS,AUO OW(V)TWD12.7 TWD20Mediatek OW TWD314 TWD382Orise OW(V)TWD39.2 TWD47Samsung OW KRW1.53m KRW1.9m,5.9x16.5x15.0 x7.7x,0.6x2.9x1.9x1.5x,11.1%18.7%13.4%21.4%,general them
4、e of high resolution larger screens was mostapparent with large UHD and OLED TVs,in addition to therise of larger 5”smartphones or phablets.Touch was the,Closing price as of 10 January 2013Source:FactSet,HSBC estimates14 January 2013Steven C Pelayo,CFARegional Head of Technology ResearchThe Hongkong
5、 and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited+852 2822 4391.hkHSBC Asia Technology Team*View HSBC Global Research at:http:/*Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities(USA)Inc,and is not registered/qualified pursuant to FINRA regulationsIssuer of report:The Hongkong and Shanghai BankingCorporation
6、 LimitedDisclaimer&DisclosuresThis report must be read with thedisclosures and the analyst certificationsin the Disclosure appendix,and with theDisclaimer,which forms part of it,key theme for notebooks,convertible PCs and otherappliances.Notable takeaways include:1)Acer selling anew tablet at a loss
7、-making USD99(the first time a 7”tablethas fallen below USD150 on retail price);2)a breakthroughin oxide technology for display;3)4k2K(UHD)contentTVs gaining traction;4)IGZO(indium gallium zinc oxide)becoming the main technology for phablets;5)tight supplyof touch panels thanks to the ramp in touch-
8、enabled PCs;and 6)quad-core system-on-chip(SoC)becoming the normfor phones and tablets.Quad-core app processors the new norm:Chipmakers likeIntel,Qualcomm and Nvidia took the opportunity tointroduce their latest quad-core processors,which will arrivein commercial devices throughout the whole of 2013
9、.Webelieve quad-core mobile devices will become the norm thisyear and expect handset vendors to adopt this trend.WithChinese vendors also starting to move into the high-end,theramp in quad-core chips looks set to happen this year,whichwill likely benefit MediaTek(OW,an Asia Super Tenportfolio consti
10、tuent).Limited differentiation:We view the products announcedas mostly in line with expectations and thus support ouraccelerating commoditization thesis;especially as weexpect emerging markets to drive the majority ofincremental growth this year.As such,we continue to preferupstream tech where margi
11、ns will likely prove more resilientthan downstream.Exiting CES,we view MediaTek andOrise(OW(V)as the main beneficiaries ofcommoditization.We also like AUO(OW(V)and SamsungElectronics(OW,an Asia Super Ten portfolio constituent)for next-gen display technologies and higher resolutionspositive for the L
12、CD driver food chain.,Telecoms,Media&TechnologyAsia Technology14 January 2013CES 2013 Displays in focus at CES this year.Size migration and higherresolution in focus.Next-gen technologies like OLED and IGZOalso showcased Limited differentiation from numerous touch notebook,larger 5”smartphones and l
13、ow-cost 7”tablets announced,supporting ouraccelerating commoditization thesis Upstream semiconductor announcements confirm quad-core to gomainstream this year,abc,Key takeaways from CESPC hardware attempting toreinvigorate growthTouch notebook PC.There are a number oftouchscreen notebook PC/hybrid d
14、evices beingannounced at CES(Consumer Electronics Show)inLas Vegas this week.As we highlighted in our AsiaTech Hardware:commoditization and innovationreport,published October 2012,the Windows 8platform looks set to pave the way for devicesoffering both desktop computing and tablet-stylemedia access
15、functionality.We believe highhardware costs and limited third-party app supportwill point to slow near-term adoption,butpenetration should rise with the next replacementcycle in 2014 as costs fall.Therefore,we expect tosee more PC/hybrid devices to launch in the future.We expect tablet/converged dev
16、ice unit growth of56%in 2013e and 45%in 2014e,likely at theexpense of notebook PC growth.Low-end tablet.At CES,Acer announced a newtablet under their Iconia brand,which will be,retailed at USD129-149,depending on the region.In selected areas,Acer has confirmed a promotionprogram to sell the product
17、at USD99.This is thefirst time we will see a 7 tablet falling belowUSD150 on retail price.According to ourunderstanding,based on the new tablets hardwarespecifications,the company will only be able tobreak even with a retail price of USD120-130 andselling at USD99 could be a loss-making project.Henc
18、e,the blended margin of this new Iconiatablet could be only single-digit versus Acerscurrent gross margin at c.10%.Asustek will also be releasing a 7 low-end tablettargeting a similar segment.The company wasoriginally using the same Mediatek solution.But inorder to differentiate,it has negotiated a
19、deal withanother chip supplier and the redesign has pushedout the launch date to Februarys MWC event.Other chip suppliers including Via have also beenco-working with Taiwans tech brands includingAsustek to develop next-generation low-endtablets.We are starting to see this business,developing into a
20、landscape similar to netbook2,Telecoms,Media&TechnologyAsia Technology14 January 2013and expect the low-end tablets to cap the growthpotential of more pricey models such as iPad 4.All in,these low-cost tablets including iPad miniare expected to gain relative share.We do notexpect the high-end segmen
21、t to shrink in itsabsolute market size but additional growth in thetablet sector will be captured by the low-costsolutions.The total tablet market was 101m unitsin 2012(c.20m units bigger if the white-boxbrands are included)and we forecast the market togrow into a 160m units(excluding white-boxbrand
22、s)in 2013.Display Lots of progress onOLED TVJapanese brands join the OLED camp.It wasnotable that Japanese TV brands such as Sony andPanasonic introduced OLED TVs for the first timeat the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas.The new models are based on an oxide TFT backplane(which uses the same te
23、chnology as LGOLED),and they support ultra-high definition(UHD)resolution,which represents atechnological advancement in OLED.Whilelaunch time for Sonys OLED TV is not clear,aPanasonic representative claims they will bringthe UHD OLED TV(with Panasonic-made panel)to the market by late spring 2013(me
24、aning itcould be the second commercialized OLED TV inthe market).We believe AUO is likely to be thesupplier for the backplane for Sonys OLED TVas Sony lacks the capacity for large size display.We believe this signals AUO,perhaps with helpfrom Sony,has made a breakthrough in terms ofOxide technology,
25、which is critical to achievehigh energy-efficient,high resolution displays.Net-net,the CES was overall positive for theOLED industry(especially for oxide TFT),asmore players are now competing and drivingfaster technological advancement.Curved OLED TV introduced by Koreans.Samsung and LGE both presen
26、ted versions of the,worlds first curved-design OLED.This isevidence that Korean players are still leaders inthe field,as the curved design requires strongtechnological capabilities in OLED,especially inencapsulation and film coating.Cost down efforts key for OLED ramp.All thatmatters now,however,is
27、driving cost lower.Many TV makers now have the technology tobuild OLED TVs,but commerciality,material andproduction yields are the keys to reducing costs.In that sense,we believe LG OLED will stand outfrom the crowd as the company starts selling itsproducts from February 2013 in Korea,the EUand the
28、US.Positive for OLED sentiment overall,but needto be selective.The recent showcasing in CES2013 is likely to trigger positive sentimentregarding the OLED food chain,but there is somereason to reserve judgement and be selective.Wethink it is too early to get excited about prototypes,as the 2013 earni
29、ngs contribution is expected to benegligible.In the case of LG OLED,it will have alimited contribution to earnings and a significantcontribution to brand value.Display Size and resolutionmigration continuesBroad-based ultra high definition(UHD)or4k2k takes off.4k2k TV is one of the keyattractions th
30、is year,with many offerings in varioussizes(55 to 110)coming from almost all the TVbrands that attended the show.We found itinteresting that Samsung,Sharp,LGD and Toshibahave come up with TVs with built-in imageupscaler chips,which can double the resolution ofthe 1080 full HD content into 4k2k(UHD)c
31、ontent.The feature made a noticeable improvement to theimage quality of the already impressive Blu-rayvideos,which are in Full HD.In our view,thispartially resolved a key barrier for 4k2k TV,whichis the lack of UHD content.While almost allChinese TV brands demonstrated 4k2k TVs,many,abc3,Telecoms,Me
32、dia&TechnologyAsia Technology14 January 2013with the Taiwanese panels,the lack of upscalerchips may severely undermine demand for theseproducts.We believe 4k2k in general is positivefrom the LCD panel perspective.It 1)boosts thepanel ASP by 40%or more vs Full HD,2)it promotes size migration as it sh
33、ortens theviewing distance,and 3)it reduces the effectivecapacity due to more elaborate processes.Thehigher resolutions are also good for our bullishthesis on the LCD driver IC supply chain.Commercializing IGZO(indium gallium zincoxide).Sharp demonstrated impressiveapplications of its IGZO technolog
34、y this year,with flexible OLED and+500 ppi 6 tabletdisplay both made with the IGZO backplane.Asscalability is the main challenge for the LTPStechnology,we believe IGZO will be increasinglyused to produce the increasingly popularphablet.Meanwhile according to Sharp,it canmass produce the 10.1 tablet
35、display with closeto 300 ppi(vs.the 254 ppi of iPad3/4),which webelieve is a sign that the next generation iPad andiPad Mini will be produced with IGZOtechnology.We believe both Sharp and LGDisplay will likely be ready to commercializeIGZO in 1H13(Sharp already has)for Applestablet.We also believe A
36、UOs potentialbreakthrough in Oxide(a technology similar toIGZO)suggests it still has the chance to continueto play a part in the Apple supply chain too.Touch capacity to persist near term,but expectlimited constraints in 2H13.Most of the NB PCsand AIO PCs demonstrated at the Intel boothcame with tou
37、ch functionality.There were severalconvertibles NB PCs but no radically newdesigns.We believe the current tightness in Win 8touch panel supply will persist in 1H13.However,new technology(such as film sensor,metal mesh,etc),as well as reduced requirements(edgebonding and/or softer cover material)and
38、the newsupply coming on line after mid-year,will relievethe issue substantially in 2H13.4,HandsetsMore signs of acceleratingcommoditizationChinese brands improving quality andbroadening product portfolios.We wereimpressed with the numerous new smartphoneslaunched by Chinese vendors.Product qualityap
39、pears to have improved substantially and thehardware gap between leader and followers isnarrowing.How Samsung innovates product withnew technology will be a key point formaintaining its leadership over the long term.However,in the short term,we see limited risk toSamsung given strong brand loyalty(c
40、omparedwith newer Chinese makers)in the mid-to high-end smartphone market.We also think Samsungwill market a foldable smartphone with a full HDAMOLED panel as a key differentiator.Samsung Galaxy the growth driver.Samsungskey growth driver for the next two or threequarters will be Galaxy Note 2 and G
41、alaxy S4.Samsungs promotions at CES were focused onGalaxy Note 2 and how they extend the customerexperience.It displayed nearly 100 Galaxy Note2s and had another designated booth to allowpeople to experience key functions,such asdrawing with an S-pen and editing pictures.Also,at another private boot
42、h,Samsung promoted keyfeatures of the Galaxy S4 to key carriers;theinterest from carriers was quite strong.Semiconductor announcementsconfirm quad-core to go mainstreamthis yearClover Trail+Atom second time lucky for Intelin mobile?Intel made a slew of announcementsof which the focus was on mobile d
43、evices.A newsmartphone reference design(Lexington)targeting“value smartphones”was unveiled.Thereference design features a 3.5”screen,isoptimised to run Android applications andfeatures dual-SIMs and dual-standby.The new,abc,Telecoms,Media&TechnologyAsia Technology14 January 2013platform comes with a
44、 1.2GHz Hyper-ThreadingAtom Z2420 processor combined with an IntelXMM 6265 HSPA+modem and will support HDvideo encoding and decoding while featuring afull set of video codecs.Intel stated that the newplatform will be comparable to much higher-endsmartphones in terms of features.An upcomingdual-core
45、32nm Z2580 Clover Trail+Atomprocessor for performance and mainstreamsmartphones was also introduced.Intel said the new processor would enhance thecurrent Clover Trail family with betterperformance and battery life.The new 5.5”1080pscreen,2GHz,Android OS Lenovo K900(available in China from April)will
46、 likely be thefirst smartphone to use the Z2580.Lookingforward,Intel also stated that its 22nm quad-coreBay Trail Atom SoC,which boasts better“allday”battery life and processing power,will likelybe available by the 2013 holiday season.Thecompany also stated that the newmicroarchitecture(Haswell)prod
47、uction is on trackand will ramp into production during 1H13.Intelhas demonstrated several hybrid convertiblemodels and stated that they will cost aroundUSD799-899.Renaming the Snapdragon.Qualcommrevamped its Snapdragon naming and announcedtwo of its latest generation Snapdragon processors the Snapdr
48、agon 800 and 600(both likely to befabbed on the 28nm process node).The flagshipSnapdragon 800 processors will include quad-coreKrait 400 CPU,with speeds up to 2.3GHz,Adreno 330 GPU,LTE,Ultra HD,and dual imagesignal processors(up to 55megapixel).Qualcommexpects Snapdragon processors to be available i
49、ndevices for sale by mid-2013.The Snapdragon600 is likely a slightly updated version of thecurrent quad-core S4 and will come with fourcores clocked at up to 1.9GHz,a“speedenhanced”Adreno 320 GPU and support for,LPDDR3 memory though 4G LTE doesnt seemto be available.The 600 is expected(according toQ
50、ualcomm)to deliver up to 40%moreperformance than the S4 while consuming lesspower at the same time.Nvidias Tegra 4“Wayne”the standard inmobile gaming?Nvidia announced its new 28nm1.9GHz Tegra 4 processor(code-named Wayne)which will feature an ARM Cortex A15 quad-coreprocessor with 72 custom GeForceG
