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1、,相关研究,行业风险,2013 年 1 月 9 日中国：开发商证券研究报告涨势可能因政策风险加剧回调；建议择机吸纳(摘要)受多重积极因素推动，房地产股涨势强劲,自我们于 2012 年 12 月 4 日发表 2013 年展望报告以来，我们覆盖的海外上市/A,我们的选股建议概要,股房地产股表现强劲，分别上涨 16%/19%。许多宏观因素推动了这一涨势；行业具体的推动因素包括：1)房地产销售保持强劲；2)发行债券的再融资成本创历史低位；3)我们研究范围内的开发商、特别是龙头企业土地收购的步伐加快；4)政,8/Jan,Rating LCY,12-M TPPotentialupside/downside
2、,Bull-casevaluationVariancevs.shareprice,Bear-casevaluationVariancevs.shareprice,策消息面整体尚平静。展望今后几个月，除政策外，各种因素依然有利并支撑估值今年 1、2 月份的销售表现可能出现淡季不淡的情况，我们预计二季度销售季到来之前土地购置活动将进一步加速，因为随着开发商在销售季之后回收更多现金，土地竞争会更为激烈。在宏观层面，城镇化的进一步推进和财富再分配方案的具体落实也有望帮助居民承受能力持续改善而支持需求增长。然而，随着越来越多城市的房价涨势日益坚挺，我们认为政策将在不久的将来打破沉寂，并在未来几个月中令,
3、Offshore listedLongforPoly Property(H)KWGCRLGreentownCountry GardenEvergrandeSunacYanlordPCRTOffshore averageOnshore listedVanke(A)BCDZhongnanVanke(B)CMP(A)SMC,B*BBBB*BBBSSB*B*BBBS,HK$HK$HK$HK$HK$HK$HK$HK$S$S$RmbRmbRmbHK$RmbRmb,21.17.57.226.517.44.64.87.01.40.4513.415.216.214.332.010.0,37%17%16%15%1
4、4%7%5%3%-14%-24%7%32%19%18%14%7%-17%,24.29.08.431.421.55.55.78.31.60.5415.118.219.616.235.811.5,57%41%35%36%40%28%24%21%-1%-10%27%49%43%43%29%19%-4%,19.26.06.324.414.63.94.16.41.30.3811.912.913.812.829.79.3,24%-7%1%6%-5%-9%-10%-6%-23%-36%-7%18%1%1%2%-1%-22%,股票波动加剧。,Onshore averageTotal average,12%9%
5、,30%28%,0%-4%,注：*位于我们的强力买入名单。,但从中期来看估值水平不高；建议择机吸纳在我们的房地产行业基本情景中，我们只假设房价在 2014 年底之前上涨 5%-10%，我们认为这已充分考虑新调控政策的潜在影响。我们覆盖的海外上市开发商股价目前相对于净资产价值平均折让 36%，这个水平：1)相对于香港/新加坡同业仍存在折让（而 2009 年为平均溢价 21%），尽管前者财务风险和库存压力不断下降而三者政策风险类似；2)较 2009 年的均值存在 26%的大幅折让。我们覆盖的 A 股开发商对应 9.9 倍的 2013 年预期市盈率，接近 2012 年的峰值（10.3倍），但仍处于
6、2009 年历史区间的低端。我们认为从中期看来，两地股市的估值都不太高，建议投资者在房地产股出现明显回调时逢低吸纳。首选股：龙湖地产、绿城房产；万科 A 和首开股份（全部位于强力买入名单）我们认为这四只股票的风险回报在我们的研究范围内最具吸引力，因为它们较同业的估值折让大于历史水平。*全文翻译随后提供,资料来源:DataStream、高华证券研究预测2013 年-良性循环的开始；上调目标价；强力买入万科 A，2012 年 12 月 4 日110 家 A 股开发商三季度业绩要点：资本开支上升但财务状况保持稳健，2012 年 11 月 1 日海外上市房产股选股调整；绿城房产/龙湖地产进入强力买入名
7、单，2012 年 10 月 22 日上行：房价复苏强于预期。下行：政府调控之严超出预期。,王逸,CFA 执业证书编号:S1420510120004+86(21)2401-8930 北京高华证券有限责任公司李薇 执业证书编号:S1420510120012+86(21)2401-8926 北京高华证券有限责任公司杜茜 执业证书编号:S1420511100001+86(10)6627-3147 北京高华证券有限责任公司北京高华证券有限责任公司,北京高华证券有限责任公司及其关联机构与其研究报告所分析的企业存在业务关系，并且继续寻求发展这些关系。因此，投资者应当考虑到本公司可能存在可能影响本报告客观性的
8、利益冲突，不应视本报告为作出投资决策的唯一因素。有关分析师的申明和其他重要信息，见信息披露附录，或请与您的投资代表联系。投资研究,2,4,5,6,8,7,8,2,2013 年 1 月 9 日Table of ContentsFrom a strong finish to a good start;low season sales not lowRefinancing cost from bond issuance now at record lowNew acquisitions accelerated in Dec;NAV expansion slow but is onPolicy qui
9、et so far but risk increasing on firming price uptrendValuations not demanding in regional/historical contextDisclosure Appendix,中国：开发商13,The prices in the body of this report are based on the market close of January 08,2013.The authors would like to thank Olivia Xiao for her contribution to this re
10、port.From a strong finish to a good start;low season sales not lowContinuing from record high sales in major cities in December last year(see Exhibit 1),2013began on a strong note with volumes in the first week 91%higher than the Jan/Feb 2012 average(see Exhibit 2).We expect such yoy volume growth t
11、o continue on the back of further recovery ineconomic growth and a stable property price trend in major primary markets.,Exhibit 1:Dec 2012 weekly sales were flat vs Nov,thehighest in the yearWeekly volume comparison between years,quarters and monthsin 35 major cities in China,Exhibit 2:2013 began o
12、n a strong noteComparison of Jan&Feb sales of current year vs.Nov&Decsales of previous year,mn sqm,35 major cities average weekly transaction volume,mn sqm,35 major cities historical Jan-Feb transaction volume comparison,65,76,Jan-Feb 2010:-48%from avg Nov-Dec 09+11%from avg Jan-Feb 09,Jan-Feb 2011:
13、-20%from avg Nov-Dec 10+22%from avg Jan-Feb 10,Jan-Feb 2012:-28%from avg Nov-Dec 11-45%from avg Jan-Feb 11,1st week of Jan 13:-31%from avg Nov-Dec 12+91%from avg Jan-Feb 12,54433,210Source:CIA/Soufun,Gao Hua Securities Research.高华证券投资研究,210Source:CIA/Soufun,Gao Hua Securities Research.,3,2013 年 1 月
14、9 日,中国：开发商,Exhibit 3:Dec sales across our coverage universe increased by a median level of 31%yoy sending their full-year saleson a median level to 33%higher than in 20112012 contract sales comparison vs.contract sales target,Contracted sales,Contracted salestarget%ofsales,12-Dec(Rmb bn),mom(%),yoy(
15、%),2012(Rmb bn),yoy(%),2012(Rmb bn),target(%),AgileCOLICRLCGEvergrandeGreentownR&FKWGLongforPoly Property(H)ShimaoSino OceanSOHOSunac,3.76.74.05.57.72.73.00.84.31.93.81.78.94.7,16%56%-5%-10%-35%-61%9%-29%9%6%25%-23%n.a.15%,7%47%-32%45%501%-41%-19%36%63%27%70%-45%-20%146%,30.893.550.047.692.351.032.2
16、12.040.123.046.131.08.931.6,-2%31%39%10%15%44%7%4%5%46%50%15%-20%78%,3182404380353212391945271330,99%114%125%111%115%146%101%100%103%121%102%115%68%105%,Offshore median,6%,31%,15%,105%,BCDCMPGemdalePolyRisesunVankeZhongnan,1.0n.a.4.39.7n.a.14.12.0,-17%n.a.9%11%n.a.-18%150%,n.a.n.a.-10%72%n.a.142%18%
17、,17.035.634.2101.718.3141.211.5,49%70%10%39%55%16%35%,142131100151409,121%170%111%102%122%101%128%,Onshore medianMedian,9%7%,45%31%,39%33%,121%111%,Note:(1)2012 contract sales target for Vanke and Poly refers to GS estimate.(2)For Agile,COLI,CRL,Greentown,KWG,Shimao,Poly Property(H),Sino Ocean,Yanlo
18、rd,CMP and Risesun,2012 and December 12 contract sales data are announced by CRIC;there could be some discrepancies between these numbers and thefinal numbers to be released by listed developers in the coming weeks.Source:Company data,CRIC,Gao Hua Securities Research.高华证券投资研究,5,5,4,2013 年 1 月 9 日,中国
19、：开发商,Refinancing cost from bond issuance now at record lowWe believe lower refinancing costs support a higher valuation for highly levered Chinese propertydevelopers.As can be seen in Exhibits 4 and 5,the average coupon rate for newly issued bondsfor select developers during since 2H12 fell to 7.8%,
20、a record low since 2009.Furthermore,theaverage tenure has increased to 7 years vs.6 years in 2009.Exhibit 4:Re-financing cost for developers now lower than in 2009 with longer tenureAverage financing cost and tenure of bond issuance from select(see Exhibit 5)developers,(Years)8,Avg tenure(LHS),Avg c
21、oupon(RHS),12%,710%68%5,4,6%,34%22%1,0,0%,2009,2010,2011,1H12,2H12-ytd,Source:Company data,Gao Hua Securities Research.Exhibit 5:Details of coupons/tenures on individual bonds,Coupon,2H12-,Tenure(years),2H12-,2009,2010,2011,1H12,ytd,2009,2010,2011,1H12,ytd,Agile,10.0%,8.9%,9.9%,7,7,5,CRL,4.6%,5,Coun
22、try Garden,11.8%,11.3%,5,7,Country GardenEvergrande,10.3%13.0%,11.1%7.5%,7.5%,55,73,10,Evergrande,9.3%,Franshion,6.8%,4.7%,10,5,R&F,6.9%,7.0%,5,3,R&F,10.9%,10.9%,5,4,KWGLongforShui On LandShui On LandShimao,6.7%,12.5%6.9%9.7%,12.8%9.5%7.6%11.0%,13.3%8.0%9.8%,6.9%10.1%6.6%,7,737,5547,533,757,SOHO,5.8
23、%,SOHO,7.1%,10,Kaisa,13.5%,13.5%,10.3%,5,4,8,Yanlord,5.9%,9.5%,10.6%,5,7,7,Average,8.2%,10.6%,9.4%,10.2%,7.8%,6,6,5,4,7,Source:Company data,Gao Hua Securities Research.高华证券投资研究,5,2013 年 1 月 9 日,中国：开发商,New acquisitions accelerated in Dec;NAV expansion slow but is onWe saw further acceleration in new
24、acquisitions by our coverage universe in Dec(see Exhibit 6),topped by COLI among our offshore coverage and Vanke,Poly and BCD among our onshorecoverage.Exhibit 6:Further acceleration in new acquisitions in Dec,which is not yet factored intoour valuationsHistorical land acquisition/contracted sales r
25、atio,180%,Offshore average acquisition amount as%of sales,Onshore average acquisition amount as%of sales160%140%120%100%80%We havent factored in,60%40%20%0%,our coverage univesenew acquisitions in Dec,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,Jan-Nov 12,2012,Source:Company data,Gao Hua Securities Research estim
26、ates.高华证券投资研究,3-Dec-12,6,2013 年 1 月 9 日,中国：开发商,Policy quiet so far but risk increasing on firming price uptrendDespite the positive pricing trend(see Exhibit 8),policy has been relatively quiet(nothingparticularly new)in the past month as shown in Exhibit 7.Exhibit 7:Latest policy announcement relat
27、ed to property industry,CategoryUrbanization&land reform,Date15-Dec-1218-Dec-1225-Dec-1218-Dec-12,DetailsThe 2012 Central Economic Work Conference held in Beijing during December 15-16set the tone to actively and steadily promote urbanization and increase its quality.National Development and Reform
28、Conference held in Beijing also emphasized thefocus to actively and steadily promote urbanization and increase its quality.According to a draft amendment to the land management law approved by anexecutive meeting of the State Council,the Chinese government may remove theupper limit on compensation f
29、or the expropriation of rural collective land.Ministry of Land and Resources reiterated its firm stance in property tightening andrequired the cities seeing fluctuations in land market activities to implement measures,such as increasing land supply in order to maintain a steady market.Land auction,P
30、roperty tax,19-Dec-1210-Dec-12,Beijing Ministry of Land and Resources halted the sale of a residential site(No.8 sitenorth to National Agricultural Exhibition Center)that could have set a record price.Mr.Xie Xuren,Director of Ministry of Finance,said that the government will steadilypush forward the
31、 property tax reform trials and combine/simplify respective tax itemswithin the transaction tax category.Mr.Jia Kang,Director of The Institute for Fiscal Science,confirmed that property taxplan details have been enacted,and its only a matter of time before the trial tax isinitiated nationwide.MOHURD
32、 said that in 2013,it would stick to its property market tightening policies,including differentiated credit,tax and HPR policies with determination to curb,Propertytightening,25-Dec-12,speculative investment demand and satisfy reasonable residential housing demand.Meanwhile,it will continue the wor
33、k to build individual housing info and record,systems.Source:Various government websites,Gao Hua Securities Research.高华证券投资研究,7,2013 年 1 月 9 日,中国：开发商Exhibit 8:Property price index has risen in the past 7 months and turned positive yoy inDec 12,suggesting increasing policy uncertaintiesProperty price
34、 index of 100-city,高华证券投资研究,(Rmb/sqm)10,0009,8009,6009,4009,2009,0008,8008,6008,400Source:CIA/Soufun,Gao Hua Securities Research.,100-city ASP,In Dec,property priceindex finally turnedpositive yoy,60,10,30,5,10,20,-70,8,2013 年 1 月 9 日,中国：开发商,Valuations not demanding in regional/historical contextRel
35、ative performance of our off/onshore coverage against their respectiveindices is similarExhibit 9:Offshore coverage developers share price performance vs.MSCI China index,historical disc.to NAV and 11 major cities ASP index,Price index20,Relative performance of offshore property index vs MSCI China(
36、LHS)11 major cities ASP index(LHS),15,NAV prem/disc(%)(RHS),(1)Cabinet sent teams toinspect the implementation of,GS forecast5040,In July 2009,CBRC urged banks tostrengthen risk control and optimizecredit structure to prevent possiblefinancial risks amid a surge of bankloans.,property regulation pol
37、icies bylocal authorities(2)In July,CPC CentralCommittee meeting stressedthe need to unswervinglyimplement the real estatemarket control policies,and to,0-5-10-15-20-25,prevent prices rebounding.Outperformance driven by priceincrease/NAV expansion beforenew policy tightening kicked in,TPimpliedNAV d
38、isc:25%,0-10-20-30-40-50-60-80,Source:DataStream,Company data,Gao Hua Securities Research estimates.高华证券投资研究,25,5,9,2013 年 1 月 9 日,中国：开发商Exhibit 10:Wind A share property index vs.CSI300,onshore coverage developers 12-month forward P/E and 11 major cities ASP index,Price index,Relative performance of
39、 Wind A share property index vs CSI300(LHS),25,11 major cities ASP index(LHS)Onshore P/E(X)(RHS),GS forecast,50,In July 2009,CBRC urged banks to,20151050-5-10,strengthen risk control and optimizecredit structure to prevent possiblefinancial risks amid a surge of bank loans.(1)Cabinet sent teams to i
40、nspect theimplementation of property regulationpolicies by local authorities(2)In July,CPC Central Committee meetingstressed the need to unswervinglyimplement the real estate market controlpolicies,and to prevent prices rebounding.Outperformance driven by priceincrease/NAV expansion beforenew policy
41、 tightening kicked in,TPimplied2013E PE:10.0X,454035302015100,Source:DataStream,Company data,Gao Hua Securities Research estimates.Valuations still at a discount to regional peersWith financial risk substantially subdued and inventory pressure easing,we believe the major riskto which our coverage un
42、iverse is exposed(i.e.,policy risk)more or less aligns with its regionalpeers in HK/SGP.But as shown in Exhibit 11,China property developers trade just in line with HKdevelopers(on a market cap weighted basis)and at a discount to SGP developers vs.theirpremium during the 2009 up-cycle.高华证券投资研究,2013
43、年 1 月 9 日,中国：开发商Exhibit 11:China developers used to trade at a premium to regional peers in HK/SGPNAV discount history for China,HK and SGP developers,NAV discount120%,China offshore sector NAV prem/discSGP developers sector NAV prem/disc,HK developers sector NAV prem/disc,90%60%30%0%-30%-60%-90%Sou
44、rce:Gao Hua Securities Research estimates,Goldman Sachs Research estimates.,高华证券投资研究,10,2009,2013 年 1 月 9 日,中国：开发商,Offshore top picks:Longfor&Greentown(Both CL-Buy)We also note that the relative valuation divergence among our offshore coverage remains greaterthan historical levels,suggesting good op
45、portunities in selective names(see Exhibit 12).Amongour Buy-rated stocks,our top picks remain Longfor and Greentown as both have a goodcombination of valuation relative to their closest peers(Longfor vs.COLI/CRL and Greentown vs.Shimao,R&F and Agile),as discussed in our previous research reports.Exh
46、ibit 12:Valuation divergence among our offshore coverage vs.historical levels suggests opportunities in selectivenames,such as Greentown,Longfor,CG,KWG,Evergrande,Poly HK and CRL,which are all rated BuyOffshore share price(discount)/premium to NAVShr price(disc)/prem.to NAV,2009,2011,2012,CompanyGre
47、entown ChinaLongforCRLCGEvergrandeKWGPoly Property(H)SunacAgileCOGOCOLIFranshionR&FShimaoShui On LandSino OceanSOHO ChinaYanlordOffshore sector,Ticker3900.HK0960.HK1109.HK2007.HK3333.HK1813.HK0119.HK1918.HK3383.HK0081.HK0688.HK0817.HK2777.HK0813.HK0272.HK3377.HK0410.HKYNLG.SI,RatingBuy*Buy*BuyBuyBuy
48、BuyBuyBuyNeutralNeutralNeutralNeutralNeutralNeutralNeutralNeutralNeutralSell,Current-38%-42%-22%-35%-52%-39%-49%-42%-38%-20%-9%-36%-27%-34%-52%-47%-42%-31%-36%,Max72%n.a.36%12%n.a.48%n.a.n.a.6%n.a.31%13%9%10%17%48%13%8%25%,Median-4%n.a.7%-15%n.a.-11%n.a.n.a.-17%n.a.12%-11%-24%-14%-17%-6%-24%-19%-11%
49、,Min-65%n.a.-16%-43%n.a.-56%n.a.n.a.-53%n.a.-6%-52%-45%-62%-58%-37%-46%-55%-46%,Max-28%-28%-33%-35%-34%-31%-40%-60%-34%n.a.-21%-31%-43%-38%-51%-50%-27%-34%-36%,Median-50%-49%-47%-49%-57%-47%-63%-69%-46%n.a.-37%-42%-55%-55%-62%-63%-39%-50%-52%,Min-76%-67%-68%-69%-80%-74%-84%-85%-77%n.a.-56%-67%-75%-7
50、5%-79%-79%-56%-72%-73%,Max-34%-35%-20%-31%-42%-20%-46%-43%-26%-17%-4%-27%-28%-30%-41%-42%-36%-28%-31%,Median-54%-43%-36%-41%-56%-38%-61%-64%-43%-28%-22%-37%-48%-45%-58%-59%-44%-45%-46%,Min-68%-60%-48%-52%-68%-57%-69%-71%-53%-33%-38%-52%-66%-63%-66%-71%-52%-58%-58%,Source:DataStream,Company data,Gao
