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1、Top picks,Buy,Buy,Buy,Deutsche BankMarkets Research,North AmericaUnited StatesIndustrialsChemicals/Commodity,PeriodicalRailcar&PetroChemical,Date7 January 2013,UpdateDavid Begleiter,CFA,US chemical shipments+1.3%.Ethane-2c/gal to 23c/galRailcar loadings 4-week moving avg.up 1.3%,weekly loadings down
2、 7.3%The 4-week moving average of chemical railcar loadings increased 1.3%inWeek#52(ended December 22)vs.a 3.7%increase the prior week.Chemicalrailcar loadings represent 30%of total US chemical shipment tonnage(followed by trucks,barges,and pipelines),offering a measurement of broaderchemical indust
3、ry activity and demand trends.The more volatile measure ofweekly loadings declined 7.3%YoY(versus a 5.6%increase in the prior week)and declined 13.6%sequentially(vs.a 6.2%increase in the prior week).Ethane prices fell 2c/gal last week to 23c/galEthane prices fell 2c/gal last week to 23 c/gal while s
4、pot ethylene prices fell1c/lb to 60c/lb.Spot ethylene margins were flat at 44c/lb.Polymer gradepropylene spot prices for January rose 5c/lb to 67c/lb amid supply tightnesson the back of PetroLogistics PDH unit outage.IHS expects ethane prices to remain below 30c/gal thru April.And whilepropane price
5、s are expected to rise modestly,they remain depressed in the 75-,Research Analyst(+1)212 250-Ramanan SivalingamAssociate Analyst()212 250-Jermaine BrownResearch Associate(+1)212 250-3624jermaine-Ashland(ASH.N),USD84.74LyondellBasell(LYB.N),USD58.41Eastman Chemical(EMN.N),USD70.16,85c/gal range due t
6、o i)a warm winter,ii)a delay in the start-up of Enterprisesexport terminal startup until Jan13,and iii)elevated inventory levels(near five-year highs).Dow Chemical(DOW,Hold)and Eastman Chemical(EMN,Buy)are the most leveraged US chemical names to cheap propane costs.We maintain our equal-weight stanc
7、e on the sectorWithin in the chemicals sector,our top specialty chemical idea is Ashland(ASH,Buy,TP$90),our top differentiated chemical idea is Eastman Chemical(EMN,Buy,TP$80)and our top commodity chemical idea is LyondellBasell(LYB,Buy,TP$70).,(GDP,Real YoY)USEurolandJapanG7Asia ex-JapanChinaGlobal
8、,2009-2.6%-4.1%-5.3%-3.5%5.7%9.1%-0.9%,20103.0%1.9%4.1%2.9%9.4%10.3%5.1%,2011 2012E 2013E 2014E1.8%2.2%1.9%2.9%1.4%-0.5%-0.3%1.1%-0.7%2.0%0.6%0.6%1.4%1.4%1.2%2.1%7.3%5.9%6.7%7.5%9.2%7.7%8.2%8.9%3.6%2.9%3.2%4.0%,Source:DB Global Economics TeamFigure 1:Chemicals railcar loadings for week ended Decembe
9、r 22,2012,%YoY,%Sequential,4-week moving averagePrior weekWeek endedPrior weekYTD 2012,1.3%3.7%(7.3%)5.6%(0.78%),(4.3%)4.8%(13.6%)6.2%,Source:Association of American Railroads and Deutsche Bank_Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its res
10、earch reports.Thus,investors shouldbe aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors shouldconsider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.DISCLOSURES AND ANALYSTCERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.
11、MICA(P)072/04/2012.,Jan-08,Apr-08,Jul-08,Oct-08,Jan-09,Apr-09,Jul-09,Oct-09,Jan-10,Apr-10,Jul-10,Oct-10,Jan-11,Apr-11,Jul-11,Oct-11,Jan-12,Apr-12,Jul-12,Oct-12,Jan-13,Apr-13,Jul-13,Oct-13,Jan-14,Apr-14,Jul-14,Oct-14,Oct-11,Nov-11,Dec-11,Dec-11,Sep-11,Apr-12,Jan-12,Jun-12,Aug-12,Oct-12,Nov-12,Oct-11,
12、Sep-11,Nov-11,Dec-11,Dec-11,Apr-12,Sep-12,Oct-12,Nov-12,May-12,Aug-12,Dec-12,Jan-12,Jun-12,Feb-12,Mar-12,Jul-12,May-12,Dec-12,Sep-12,Feb-12,Mar-12,Jul-12,Jan-08,Apr-08,Jul-08,Oct-08,Jan-09,Apr-09,Jul-09,Oct-09,Jan-10,Apr-10,Jul-10,Oct-10,Jan-11,Apr-11,Jul-11,Oct-11,Jan-12,Apr-12,Jul-12,Oct-12,Jan-13
13、,Apr-13,Jul-13,Oct-13,Jan-14,Apr-14,Jul-14,Oct-14,7 January 2013Chemicals/CommodityRailcar&PetroChemical UpdateFigure 2:Chemicals railcar loadings for week ended December 22,2012(Week#52),%YoY,%Sequential,4-week moving averagePrior weekWeek endedPrior weekYTD 2012,1.3%3.7%(7.3%)5.6%(0.78%),(4.3%)4.8
14、%(13.6%)6.2%,Source:Association of American Railroads and Deutsche BankFigure 3:U.S.Ethylene Production Cash Costs-Spot Co-Production Credits,Weekly Avg.Cents/Pound,Change from Last Week,Purity EthanePropaneCo-Prod.Int.Lt.NaphthaButaneLight NaphthaGas OilWeighted Avg.Source:IHS Chemical,9.811.444.64
15、4.051.o59.515.4,(0.9)(1.2)(2.2)(2.2)(2.7)(5.0)(1.1),Figure 4:Mt.Belvieu Ethane Purity Prices(North America)c/gallon160140120,Figure 5:Mt.Belvieu Propane Non-TET(North America)c/gallon200180160,140100120,80604020Source:IHS ChemicalFigure 6:US Ethylene Pipeline Gulf Coast FOB Spot Prices(c/lb)7570,100
16、806040Source:IHS ChemicalFigure 7:US Chemical Grade Propylene Gulf Coast FOBSpot Prices(c/lb)9080,657060,555045,605040,403035,30Source:Bloomberg Finance LP,20Source:Bloomberg Finance LP,Oct-11,Oct-11,Nov-11,Dec-11,Apr-12,Oct-12,Nov-12,May-1998,May-1999,Aug-12,May-12,May-1995,May-1996,May-1997,May-20
17、00,May-2001,May-2002,May-2003,May-2004,May-2005,May-2006,May-2007,May-2008,May-2009,May-2010,May-2011,May-2012,Dec-12,Sep-11,Sep-12,Jan-12,Jun-12,Feb-12,Mar-12,Jul-12,Figure 8:Figure 8:China Acetic Acid Spot Prices(CNY/ton)450040003500300025002000Source:Bloomberg Finance LP,Figure 9:US ethane-based
18、ethylene production costs areadvantaged vs other regions(c/lb)605550454035302520151050,Figure 10:US ethane supply has been increasing steadilysince 2005(000 of bpd)11001000900800700600500400,Western US Ethane,US,US,US Light Northeast,West,Southeast,Canada,Weighted,Coprod,Naphtha,Asia,Europe,Asia,Ave
19、rage,LightNaphtha,Naphtha Naphtha Naphtha,7 January 2013,Chemicals/Commodity,Railcar&PetroChemical Update,Table Of Contents,US Chemicals Railcar Data.6Key end market data.8,End Market:Agriculture.9End Market:US Construction.11End Market:US Automotive&Electronics.16,US macro indicators.17,US output i
20、ndicators.17US financial market indicators.19,Overseas macro indicators.20Sector Valuation&Risks.21,Table of Exhibits,Figure 1:Chemicals railcar loadings for week ended December 22,2012(Week#52).2Figure 2:U.S.Ethylene Production Cash Costs-Spot Co-Production Credits.2Figure 3:Mt.Belvieu Ethane Purit
21、y Prices(North America).2Figure 4:Mt.Belvieu Propane Non-TET(North America).2Figure 5:US Ethylene Pipeline Gulf Coast FOB Spot Prices(c/lb).2Figure 6:US Chemical Grade Propylene Gulf Coast FOB Spot Prices(c/lb).2Figure 7:Figure 8:China Acetic Acid Spot Prices(CNY/ton).3Figure 8:US ethane-based ethyl
22、ene production costs are advantaged vs other regions(c/lb).3Figure 9:US ethane supply has been increasing steadily since 2005(000 of bpd).3Figure 10:Chemical distribution channels,by volume and cost.6Figure 11:Chemical and petroleum railcar loadings(4-wk m.a.,%YoY).6Figure 12:Four-week moving averag
23、e of weekly railcar loadings(2009-Present).6Figure 13:Sequential growth in weekly chemical railcar loadings(2009-Present).7Figure 14:Weekly railcar loadings(000s,2009-Present).7Figure 15:Four-week moving average of weekly railcar loadings,%YoY(2000-Present).7Figure 16:Four-week moving average of wee
24、kly railcar loadings(000s,2000-Present).7Figure 17:US chemical companies revenue exposures to key end markets.8Figure 18:Corn stocks-to-use ratios are at the lowest levels since the mid-1970s.9Figure 19:US Corn and Soy Acreage(1970-2013E;millions of acres).9Figure 20:US Corn Yields(1970-2013E;bushel
25、s per acre).10Figure 21:US Soybean Yields(1970-2013E;bushels per acre).10Figure 22:Global Corn Consumption(MM tons).10Figure 23:Arable Land Per Capita.10Figure 24:Global Corn Yields by Country/Region(bu/acre;2011).10Figure 25:Global Corn Acreage by Region(millions of acres;2011).10Figure 26:US const
26、ruction data has stabilized since record lows in mid-09 and is beginningto show signs of improvement.11Figure 27:Private non-residential construction has surpassed public non-residential,construction.11Figure 28:Household debt to asset ratio returning to trend levels.12Figure 29:Household Debt/GDP r
27、atio also returning to trend levels.12Figure 30:Housing-related consumption remains well above homebuilder sentiment.12Figure 31:Housing starts appear to have bottomed and have ticked up in 2012.12Figure 32:Homebuilder sentiment index suggests that housing could add 1 percent toGDP over the next 12
28、months.13Figure 33:The homebuilder sentiment index suggests.13,Figure 34:Consumer purchasing plan:home.13Figure 35:Industry sentiment indicators trending up strongly.13Figure 36:Close to record-high levels of affordability.14Figure 37:Real resid investment contribution to real GDP growth.14Figure 38
29、:components of residential investment that are adding to GDP growth.14Figure 39:Traffic of prospective buyers of new homes.14Figure 40:Conference board consumer confidence survey:plans to buy a new home withinsix months.15Figure 41:US home prices rising steadily.15Figure 42:North American auto build
30、s.16Figure 43:North American printed circuit board book-to-bill ratio.16Figure 44:US Chemicals Shipments on Internal Waterways.17Figure 45:Chemicals Railcar Loadings,Capacity Utilization,and Industrial Production.17Figure 46:Growth in railcar loadings is ahead of industrial production.18Figure 47:EC
31、RI Leading Index vs.Industrial Production.18Figure 48:Industrial Production vs.ISM PMI Index.18Figure 49:Industrial Production vs.ISM Mfg.New Orders.18Figure 50:Industrial Production vs.Conference Board Leading Indicators.18Figure 51:Conference Board Leading Indicators vs.Real GDP.18Figure 52:Chemic
32、als sector multiples vs the yield curve.19Figure 53:A steeper yield curve has previously led rising chemicals IP.19Figure 54:Eurozone confidence indicators.20Figure 55:ZEW German economic sentiment indicator(12mo m.avg.).20Figure 56:OECD Europe CLI vs Euro area Industrial Production.20,2,4,6,8,10,12
33、,14,16,18,20,22,24,26,28,30,32,34,36,38,40,42,44,46,48,50,52,2,4,6,8,10,12,14,16,18,20,22,24,26,28,30,32,34,36,38,40,42,44,46,48,50,52,7 January 2013Chemicals/CommodityRailcar&PetroChemical UpdateUS Chemicals Railcar DataFigure 11:Chemical distribution channels,by volume and cost,By tonnage(882MM to
34、ns),By cost*($40.0 billion),RailTruckWaterbornePipeline,Air&Other,30%48%18%4%,20%67%10%3%,Source:American Chemistry Council.*Cost is cost of transportation,not value of product,2010 dataYear to date,chemical railcar loadings are down 0.8%Year to date,chemical railcar loadings are down approximately
35、0.8%.With ethanolcomprising approximately 21%of chemicals loadings and DoE blending up 10%(est.)in11,we estimate that ethanol is boosting 12 US chemicals railcar loadings by roughly2%.Figure 12:Chemical and petroleum railcar loadings(4-wk m.a.,%YoY)70%60%50%40%,30%20%10%0%(10%),Week#52,Jan,Feb,Mar,A
36、pr,May,Jun,Jul,Aug,Sep,Oct,Nov,Dec,Chemicals railcar loadings(4-wk m.a.%YoY)Ethanol-driven Increase in loadings(estimated from blending,4-wk m.a.%YoY)Petroleum Products railcar loadings(4-wk m.a.%YoY)Source:Association of American RailroadsFigure 13:Four-week moving average of weekly railcar loading
37、s(2009-Present)33,00031,00029,00027,00025,000,23,000,Week#52,Jan,Feb,Mar,Apr,May,Jun,Jul,Aug,Sep Oct,Nov,Dec,Source:Association of American Railroads,2010,2011,2012,SequentialChange,-,-,Jan-00,Jan-01,Jan-02,Jan-03,Jan-04,Jan-05,Jan-06,Jan-07,Jan-08,Jan-09,Jan-10,Jan-11,Jan-12,Jan-00,Jan-01,Jan-02,Ja
38、n-03,Jan-04,Jan-05,Jan-06,Jan-07,Jan-08,Jan-09,Jan-10,Jan-11,Jan-12,Figure 14:Sequential growth in weekly chemical railcarloadings(2009-Present)35%25%15%5%(5%),Figure 15:Weekly railcar loadings(000s,2009-Present)3432302826,(15%)(25%),Jan,Feb,Mar,Apr,May,Week#52Jun Jul,Aug,Sep,Oct,Nov Dec,2422,Week#5
39、2,2010,2011,2012,Jan Feb Mar2010,Apr May Jun Jul2011,Aug Sep Oct,NovDec2012,Source:Association of American RailroadsFigure 16:Four-week moving average of weekly railcarloadings,%YoY(2000-Present)30%20%10%0%(10%)(20%)(30%)(40%)Source:Association of American Railroads,Source:Association of American Ra
40、ilroadsFigure 17:Four-week moving average of weekly railcarloadings(000s,2000-Present)32302826242220Source:Association of American Railroads,-,-,-,-,-,-,7 January 2013Chemicals/CommodityRailcar&PetroChemical UpdateKey end market dataFigure 18:US chemical companies revenue exposures to key end market
41、s,Company3M,Auto&Transport11%,Construction4%,Electronics10%,CommentsIndustrial 25%;Healthcare 18%;Consumer 15%;Energy 3%,Safety&Security 14%,Air Products,15%,Energy 24%,Genl Mfg 15%,Chemicals 17%,Metals 10%,Medical 7%,Food 3%,Others 10%,Airgas,2%,13%,Industrial Repair&Maintenance:27%Retail&,Wholesal
42、e:4%Other 3%Medical:9%;Food;6%;Analytical:2%Utilities:2%,Petrochemical:7%“Auto&Transport”is onlyTransport and no Auto,Albemarle,6%,9%,15%,Refining 32%,Pharma/Ag 12%,Industrial 10%,Packaging 9%,Oilfield 4%,Other 3%,Ashland,8%,17%,Coatings 6%,Lubricants 15%,Chemicals 5%,Pulp/paper 12%,Energy 3%,Regula
43、ted Ind 3%,Marine 4%,Infrastructure 2%,Packaging/converting 3%,Retail consumer 3%,Personal Care3%,Medical 2%,Others 14%,CabotCelanese,15%11%,10%3%,10%,Tire 45%;Others 20%Filter Media 22%;Paints Consumer&Medical,Apps 12%;Consumer Paper&Packaging 3%,Cytec,17%,47%,Chemical Processing:13%,Mineral Proces
44、sing 7%;Plastic:4%;,Adhesives:3%;Other:9%“Auto&Transport”consists ofAutomotive only,DuPont,20%,10%,9%,Agriculture/food 21%;Food Ingred,Ref Other,packaging 3%;Chemicals/petchem 5%;Textile/apparel 5%;Plastics 3%;Other industrial 7%;Aerospace 4%;Paper 1%;Healthcare 1%;Personal care 3%.“Construction”inc
45、ludesresidential,commercial construction”,Ferro,10%,34%,21%,Appliances 8%;Containers 8%;Household furnishings 7%;,Industrial 6%;Others 6%,HB Fuller,10%,Adhesives:72%;Paints:8%;Packaging:4%;Insulating glass:4%;Consumer:2%,LyondellBasell,7%,10%,Refining/Fuels:35%;Packaging:18%;Consumer:12%;Coatings:,4
46、%;Textiles/Furnishings:4%;Other:10%.“Auto&Transport”consists of Transportation only.“Construction”consists of“Building&Construction”.,PPG,30%,27%,Consumer goods 21%;Industrial goods 10%;Chemical products:,5%;Aerospace 4%;Marine 3%(Auto consists of OEM 19%,Auto aftermarket 11%),Praxair,7%,Manufacturi
47、ng 24%;Chemicals 10%;Energy 13%;Food andBeverage 7%;Aerospace 2%;Healthcare 10%;Metals 16%;Other 11%,Rockwood Holdings,11%,13%,8.00%,Metal Treatment 17%;Chemicals/Plastics 14%;Life Sciences,12%;Consumer Products 2%;Paper 2%;Environmental 2%;Other 8%,Valspar,3%,30%,Industrial 36%,Packaging 21%,Other
48、10%“Auto&Transport”is,automotive refinish and“Construction”is architectural paintsSource:Company data,Deutsche Bank estimates,12/13E,70/71,72/73,74/75,76/77,78/79,80/81,82/83,84/85,86/87,88/89,90/91,92/93,94/95,96/97,98/99,00/01,02/03,04/05,06/07,08/09,10/11,End Market:AgricultureFigure 19:Corn stoc
49、ks-to-use ratios are at the lowest levels since the mid-1970sSource:USDA;Deutsche BankFigure 20:US Corn and Soy Acreage(1970-2013E;millions of acres)10595857565554535,Source:Deutsche Bank,USDA,US Corn Acreage,US Soy Acreage,70/71,72/73,74/75,76/77,78/79,80/81,82/83,84/85,86/87,88/89,90/91,92/93,94/9
50、5,96/97,98/99,00/01,02/03,04/05,06/07,08/09,10/11,12/13E,12/13E,70/71,72/73,74/75,76/77,78/79,80/81,82/83,84/85,86/87,88/89,90/91,92/93,94/95,96/97,98/99,00/01,02/03,04/05,06/07,08/09,10/11,7 January 2013Chemicals/CommodityRailcar&PetroChemical Update,Figure 21:US Corn Yields(1970-2013E;bushels per
