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1、EquityResearchReport/SectorResearch/Shipping&Port,111209,120109,120209,120309,120409,120509,120609,120709,120809,120909,121009,121109,15%,CITIC Port,中信航运,中信港口,沪深300 CITIC,-10%,10%,-5%,5%,0%,-20%,-25%,-30%,Investment Strategy for 2013E Shipping&PortShipping and port stocks are likely to hover around
2、lowlevels in 2013E,with few visible opportunities,th4 Jan 2013,NEUTRAL,(Reiterate)Investment Highlights,Container:Supply-demand pressure still present and priceincreases will continue.Reducing losses and raising prices havebeen the theme throughout 2012.As at end-Nov 12,CCFI was 28%higher when compa
3、red to end-2011,with rates up by 69%forEuropean,17%for Eastern US and 32%for Western US routes.Weforecast the sector supply and demand to increase 9%and 8%YoY,respectively in 2013E.The large-vessel deliveries should curb rates onthe long-haul routes.However,given relatively high industryconcentratio
4、n in shipping and sustained operational strategy,weexpect to see further collective price increases in 2013E.The,CITIC Securities ResearchHongbo ZhangTel.:010-60838387Email:Practicing license No.:S1010510120045Performance relative to indicesS&P/CITIC 300 中信交运TransportationCITIC Shipping,bottoming ou
5、t of rate may be attained around the breakeven point.Ifthe demand remains strong and shippers act in unison,core businessmay become profitable.-15%Tanker:Lack price catalysts.Year-to-date in 2012,the oil shippingmarket has suffered from oversupply and tepid demand.As a result,the rates have remained
6、 low.We estimate the supply and demand toincrease by 4%and 2%YoY,respectively in 2013E,with persistent,Source:CITIC Securities Research,imbalance.The increase in VLCC capacity has outpaced industrygrowth and the trend is towards larger vessels.Given the excesssupply and move towards bigger ships,the
7、re are no sufficient pricedrivers.The decline in unit cost of shipping will also add to the intensityof competition,leaving no room for rate increase.Bulk:Difficult to improve supply-demand balance with the sectorhovering around low levels.Thus far in 2012,the dry bulk markethas been moving along th
8、e trough,with BDI merely at 918 points(-39%YoY).We do not foresee any meaningful improvement in thesupply-demand fundamentals going forward.In 2013E,supply anddemand may rise 12%and 4-5%YoY,respectively.The current downcycle for the global bulk market is not yet over.On the back of gradualworldwide
9、economic recovery,the BDI may rise slowly in 2013E.However,due to severe mismatch between supply and demand,anyincrease would be limited.We project the BDI to average 1,100-1,400points in 2013E.Port:Growth may stabilize and pick up;gross margin willincrease steadily.In Jan-Oct 12,nationwide scale po
10、rts saw cargothroughput increase of 6.7%YoY.Specifically,the growth declinedmoderately in Jan-Aug,but stabilized and picked up from Seponwards,with the domestic market recovering faster than exports.Weforecast that the stabilizing macro conditions in 2013E will lead to amild increase in freight thro
11、ughput(estimated around 7-8%YoY).Ofwhich,container shipping is likely to register a 9-10%YoY rise due torebound in foreign trade.Increasingly market-based fee system willresult in rising port fees,lending support to the gross margin of theoperators.Please read the disclaimer at the end of the report
12、,Investment Strategy for 2013E Shipping and(ii)surging oil prices.Sector rating and investment strategy:Maintain NEUTRAL rating as the sector offers limitedopportunities.The severe mismatch between sector supply and demand is likely to persist andshipping rates are likely to remain under pressure.Le
13、ading companies may post losses for the secondconsecutive year and as a result could be labeled as ST counters,which will squeeze sector valuation.Port industry faces deceleration in growth and lack stimulants.Therefore,we maintain our NEUTRALrating for shipping and port sector and project them to u
14、nderperform in the broader market.We suggestmonitoring short-term changes in supply-demand of the shipping sector and potential opportunitiesarising as a result of rate changes.In terms of stock picks,we recommend Wuhu Port on the back ofstrong support from major shareholders and secured short-term
15、earnings.Peers comparison,Company,Price(Rmb),EPS(Rmb)11 12E,13E,14E,PER(x)11,12E,13E,14E,P/B(x)12E,Rating,Wuhu Port(600575)CSCL(601866),6.832.13,0.32-0.23,0.320.02,0.390.05,0.470.06,21n.a.,21107,1843,1536,1.81.0,O/WO/W,China COSCO(601919)4.20,-1.02,-0.75,0.01,0.01,n.a.,n.a.,420,420,1.6,Hold,Source:C
16、ITIC Securities Research,Wind,Note:Closing price on 30 Nov 12,Please read the disclaimer at the end of the report,Investment Strategy for 2013E Shipping&Port,Contents,Shipping Container:Supply-demand pressure still exist;price increase should continue in 2013E.1Review:Reducing losses and raising pri
17、ces have been the theme throughout 2012,but strong demandwas lacking.1Outlook:Supply-demand will remain under pressure,and price increase will continue in 2013E.2Shipping Tanker:Continued imbalance and lack of price drivers.5Review:Tepid demand and weak rates.5Outlook:Continued imbalance,and lack of
18、 price drivers.6Shipping Bulk:Moving along the trough amid limited improvement in supply-demand dynamics.8Review:BDI has been moving along the trough.8Outlook:Rates under pressure due to supply-demand mismatch,we project that BDI will range between1,100-1,400 points.10Port:Growth will stabilize and
19、pick up amid steady expansion in gross margin.12Review:Growth should stabilize and pick up,with faster recovery seen in domestic trade demand.12Outlook:Growth rate is expected to rise continuously amid steadily expanding gross margin in 2013E 14Potential risks.16Significant slowdown in economic grow
20、th and accelerated slowdown in import/export trade.16The biggest risk for shipping operations stems from sharp rise in oil prices.16Force majeure.17Investment strategy:Shipping and port stocks are likely to hover around low levels in 2013E,with fewvisible opportunities.17Sector review:Port stocks hi
21、ghlight defensive nature,while shipping stocks posted sharp declines.17Investment strategy:Shipping and port stocks are likely to hover around low levels in 2013E,with fewvisible opportunities.18Key recommendation.21Schedule.23International shipping stock movements.23Valuation of international shipp
22、ing and port stocks.24,Please read the disclaimer at the end of the report,Investment Strategy for 2013E Shipping&PortFiguresFig.1:CCFI Composite index vs.European routes.2Fig.2:CCFI-US East Coast/West Coast routes.2Fig.3:CSCLs quarterly gross margin movements.2Fig.4:CSCLs quarterly operating margin
23、 movements.2Fig.5:Container capacity growth.3Fig.6:Deliveries of new container vessels by size.3Fig.7:Container capacity by vessel size(as of end-Nov 12).3Fig.8:Order for container vessels by vessel size(as of end-Nov 12).3Fig.9:University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.4Fig.10:US new housing
24、starts.4Fig.11:US manufacturing PMI.4Fig.12:China manufacturing PMI.4Fig.13:BDTI and BCTI trends.5Fig.14:WS movement for major lines.5Fig.15:Average TCE for VLCC.5Fig.16:Brent crude oil price.6Fig.17:OPEC crude oil production.6Fig.18:Tanker fleet size.6Fig.19:Global crude oil demand growth by region
25、 in 2012E.6Fig.20:Global crude tanker oversupply should continue in 2013E.7Fig.21:Global product tanker oversupply should continue in 2013E.7Fig.22:On-hand orders of tankers has reached the lowest level in 10 years.7Fig.23:VLCC capacity growth has exceeded the capacity growth of the tanker sector.7F
26、ig.24:BDI fluctuated at the trough.9Fig.25:Coastal bulk market rates continued to hover at low levels.9Fig.26:TCE for Cape vessels in 2012.9Fig.27:TCE for Panamax vessels in 2012.9,Fig.28:Dry bulk fleet size,.9,Fig.29:Order for dry bulk vessels as a proportion of capacity during the same period.9Fig
27、.30:Chinas crude steel output.10Fig.31:Chinas iron ore imports and output.10Fig.32:Coal inventory at Qinhuangdao Port.10Fig.33:Power generation growth of national and Eastern China power grids,YoY.10Fig.34:Shipping cycle and BDI trend.12Fig.35:Cargo throughput growth at major Chinese ports is steadi
28、ly on the increase.13Please read the disclaimer at the end of the report,Investment Strategy for 2013E Shipping&Port,Fig.36:Domestic trade outperformed foreign trade in port cargo throughput.13Fig.37:Container throughput and growth at major Chinese ports.13Fig.38:Passenger throughput and growth at C
29、hinese ports.13Fig.39:Cargo throughput growth at major Chinese ports vs.GDP growth.14Fig.40:Unit GDP contribution to coastal port cargo throughput.14Fig.41:Container throughput growth vs.foreign trade imports/exports growth.15Fig.42:Container throughput and new exports orders index.15Fig.43:Throughp
30、ut growth at major ports and gross margin of listed port companies.15Fig.44:Performance of CITIC shipping and port sector in 2012E.17Fig.45:Price movements of major shipping stocks YTD in 2012.18Fig.46:Price movements of major PORT stocks YTD in 2012.18Fig.47:Historical movement of shipping sector i
31、s highly positively correlated to BDI.20Fig.48:Share price movement of China COSCO YTD in 2012.20Fig.49:Share price movement of CSCL YTD in 2012.20Fig.50:PER of A-share port stocks vs.broader market.21Fig.51:P/B of A-share port stocks vs.broader market.21Fig.52:IDBSCI.23Fig.53:IOTSCI.23Fig.54:ICSSCI
32、.24,Please read the disclaimer at the end of the report,Investment Strategy for 2013E Shipping&Port,Tables,Table 1:Container price increase YTD in 2012.1Table 2:CCFI variation YTD in 2012.2Table 3:Average TCE in oil shipping by type of vessel and changes.8Table 4:Global bulk shipping forecast.11Tabl
33、e 5:Global bulk shipping capacity growth.11Table 6:Global bulk shipping demand forecast.12Table 7:Pricing mechanism and fee at major Chinese ports.16Table 8:Performance of CITIC transportation index by sector.17Table 9:Peers comparison China Shipping Sector.19Table 10:Peers comparison China port sec
34、tor.21Table 11:Earnings forecast of Wuhu Port.23Table 12:Peers Comparison Global shipping sector.25Table 13:Peers Comparison Global port sector.26,Please read the disclaimer at the end of the report,Jan,Mar,Apr,May,Jul,Aug,Sep,Dec,Jan 13,1,Investment Strategy for 2013E Shipping price increase should
35、 continue in 2013EReview:Reducing losses and raising prices have been thetheme throughout 2012,but strong demand was lackingReducing losses and raising prices have been the theme throughout 2012,but itlacked sustainability.In 2012,the container sector collaborated to raise prices to reduceloss and t
36、urn profitable,and pushed up prices above the breakeven point by controllingshipping space.The CCFI,for instance,surged at the beginning of the year and thentrended down.As at end-30 Nov 12,the CCFI composite index closed at 1,129.90 points,28%higher when compared to end-2011.The rate increase was t
37、he highest for Europeanroutes(+69%),and came in at 17%for Eastern US and 32%for Western US routes.Long-term trend is dependent on supply-demand fundamentals.Supply-demandfundamentals indicated that freight rates were unable to continue surging above thebreakeven point,and declined continually after
38、the price hikes.European routes faced thegreatest difficulty in raising prices and posted the sharpest decline after raising prices.Throughout 2012,container companies proposed raising prices almost every month.Shippers were strongly motivated to reduce losses and aimed at maintaining rates throughp
39、rice increases.However,due to unsustainable prices after the increase,weak supportfrom shipping volumes continued to erode prices.Table 1:Container price increase YTD in 2012,European routesFully implemented(US$400/TEU)Fully implemented(US$700/TEU)Fully implemented(US$400/TEU)Proposed raising prices
40、 by US$300-400/TEU,but was not fully implemented,US routesFully implemented(US$200/TEU)Fully implemented(US$300-400/TEU)Fully implemented(US$400/TEU)Postponed the price increase,Jun,Postponed the(US$250-400/TEU),price,increase,Partially implemented(increased by US$400/TEU,vs.US$600/TEU proposed),Pla
41、nned to raise prices by US$400-500/TEU)but was not fully implemented.Price increasedby US$300/TEU,Planned two price increases(US$350/TEUand US$250/TEU).Both did not materialize.Shippers contemplated raising prices byUS$150-200/TEU on European routes,butwhich not implemented successfully.,Adopted a p
42、re-price increase program,including theincrease of US$500/FEU for Western US routes andUS$700/FEU for Eastern US routesTSA)levied a peak season surcharge(PSS)ofUS$500/FEU,Nov,Successfully raisedUS$500-525/TEU,freight,rates,by,TSA planned to increase freight rates by US$400/TEUfor Western US routes a
43、nd by US$500/TEU forEastern US routesMaersk Lines plans a 30%price increase for refrigerated containers with effect from 1 Jan 13E in a bidto return to profitability.TSA plans raising prices by:(i)US$800/FEU on Western US routes;(ii)US$1,000/FEU on Eastern US routes;and(iii)US$1,200/FEU on the route
44、s to other inland areas witheffect from 1 Jan 13E.Source:C,respective companies,CITIC Securities ResearchPlease read the disclaimer at the end of the report,201106,201107,201109,201110,201111,201112,201202,201203,201204,201205,201206,201207,201208,201210,201211,201102,201104,201106,201108,201109,201
45、112,201202,201203,201205,201207,201209,201211,2008Q1,2008Q2,2008Q3,2008Q4,2009Q1,2009Q2,2009Q3,2009Q4,2010Q1,2010Q2,2010Q3,2010Q4,2011Q1,2011Q2,2011Q3,2011Q4,2012Q1,2012Q2,2012Q3,2008Q1,2008Q2,2008Q3,2008Q4,2009Q1,2009Q2,2009Q3,2009Q4,2010Q1,2010Q2,2010Q3,2010Q4,2011Q1,2011Q2,2011Q3,2011Q4,2012Q1,20
46、12Q2,2012Q3,Europe route,R,US East coast route,R,US West coast route,L,Mediterranean route,R,Composite index,L,-2%,2,Investment Strategy for 2013E Shipping&Port,Fig.1:CCFI Composite index vs.Europeanroutes,Fig.2:CCFI-US East Coast/West Coastroutes,欧洲航线（右轴）,地中海航线（右轴）,美东航线（右轴）,美西航线（左轴）,1,4001,3001,200
47、1,1001,000900800700,综合指数（左轴）,2,3002,1001,9001,7001,5001,3001,100900700,1,3001,2001,1001,000900800700600,1,5001,4001,3001,2001,1001,000900800700600,Source:,C,CITIC,Securities,Source:C,CITIC,Securities,ResearchTable 2:CCFI variation YTD in 2012CCFI(mean),ResearchAmplitude,Composite,European routes,Med
48、iterranean routes,Eastern USroutes,Western USroutes,Composite,Europeanroutes,Mediterranean routes,Eastern USroutes,Western USroutes,2009201020112012YTD,8811,1319911,176,1,0171,7291,1631,544,1,1531,8181,2861,625,1,1961,2751,1711,248,8791,0579371,051,-21.5%28.4%-12.4%17.6%,-33.9%70.0%-32.7%29.5%,-28.6
49、%57.6%-29.2%24.0%,-10.1%6.7%-8.1%5.6%,-20.6%20.2%-11.4%11.0%,Source:Respective companies,CITIC Securities Research,Note:As of 30 Nov 12,Fig.3:CSCLs,quarterly,gross,margin,Fig.4:CSCLs quarterly operating margin,movements,movements,30%20%10%0%,11%2%,5%,21%17%14%1%0%,7%5%,30%20%10%6%2%0%,19%15%11%,4%2%
50、,-10%,-10%,-20%-30%-40%-50%,-2%-12%-27%-35%-40%,-4%-14%-10%-20%,-20%-30%-40%-50%,-4%-3%-18%-31%-39%-43%,-3%-13%-6%-16%-25%,Source:CSCL,CITIC Securities Research,Source:CSCL,CITIC Securities Research,Outlook:Supply-demand will remain under pressure,and priceincrease will continue in 2013ESupply-deman
