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1、A,A,A,2013,1,28,300,0.9%,1.1%,0.8%,3.7%,010-60838226,3.1%,PMI,S10105101200040755-23835395,S10105101200382013021-S1010512050004010-S1010511090003010-S1010512060002010-,1.A,20121210.2012-12-10,2.,A,2013.2012-12-12,2012,3.A,20121217.2012-12-17,4.,A,201211224.2012-12-24,5.,A,2013,1,.2012-12-31,6.A,20130
2、107,.2013-01-07,7.A8.A,20130114.2013-01-1420130121,.2013-01-21,1,3,4,5,6,8,9,12,13,14,16,18,20,21,22,23,24,A.1.2.5.7.9.9.15,1/21-1/25,.1,2 A,1/21-1/25,.1,.1,1/21-1/251/21-1/25,.1.2,1/21-1/25,.2,710 201211 2008,2012,PMI,.2.2.3.3.4.6.6.7,151719,1012,4,CDS.7.8.8.8.8.8.8.9.9.9,25,30,31,2,3,4,A.9,2627,1/
3、21-1/251/21-1/25,.10.10,28,1/21-1/25,.10,29,1/21-1/25,.10,.11.11,323334,20122012,300,.12.12.12,35361,500H,300,.13.132013.5,.10.13.15,0121,0122,0123,0124,0125,0.5,-1.3%,1Y,A,1,A,3.3%,3.7%,3003.1%,0.9%,1.1%,1,0.8%,1,1/21-1/25,2,A,1/21-1/25,23802360,0.0%-0.5%,23402320,-1.0%-1.5%,-0.92%,-1.11%,-0.80%,23
4、0022802260,-2.0%-2.5%-3.0%,2240,-3.5%,-3.12%,Wind,-4.0%,300Wind,-3.66%,3,4,1/21-1/25,6,5.3,2.5%2.0%,1.8%,2.1%,2.0%,420,2.9,2.1,1.50.0,0.7,0.70.6,1.5%1.0%0.5%0.0%-0.5%,1.1%,1.0%,0.1%,-0.1%,1.0%0.3%,-2-4-6,-4.5,-3.5,-1.0-4.0,-1.0%-1.5%-2.0%-2.5%,-2.1%,-1.1%,-8,-7.2,3Y,5Y,7Y,10Y,15Y,20Y,Wind,Wind,NYBOT
5、,1,10/01,10/04,10/07,10/10,11/01,11/04,11/07,11/10,12/01,12/04,12/07,12/10,13/01,A,5,Wind,1/21-1/25,6,Wind,1/21-1/25,0,1,27,2012,55578,5.3%,12,8952,17.3%,2012,5,5.2%,10.1%,12,5.66%,6.07%,2013,2013,7,PMI,%,8,%,5453,2012/112013/01,2012/12,60,PMI,PMI,525150,5550,4948,Wind,45,Wind,YY/MM,PMI,1,1,PMI,51.9
6、,22,2,1,1,2,03/Q1,03/Q4,04/Q3,05/Q2,06/Q1,06/Q4,07/Q3,08/Q2,09/Q1,09/Q4,10/Q3,11/Q2,12/Q1,12/Q4,A,960%45%30%15%0%,10100008000600040002000,2012,%,25201510505,15%,YY/QQ,0,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10 11 12,10,CEIC,2,Wind,2012,201323,A,11,2008,2012,45o20,2013,2013,4,A,1,2013,78%,2013,1,41155302000,280,9.5%,4000,53
7、0,2.5 160%32013,5,19,1,23,285,144,16.4,5,19,5,2013-1-4,2013-1-6,2013-1-8,2013-1-10,2013-1-12,2013-1-14,2013-1-16,2013-1-18,2013-1-20,2013-1-22,2013-1-24,A,4,15,10,2014,1,22,2%,2014,24,1,19,36,2008,1,5000,33,37.51,12,9080706050403020100,CEIC,1310.2%10.0%9.8%9.6%9.4%9.2%9.0%,CEIC,%,3,1,3,27,1%2%20146,
8、200801,200808,200903,200910,201005,201012,201107,201202,201209,2013-1-2,2013-1-4,2013-1-6,2013-1-8,2013-1-10,2013-1-12,2013-1-14,2013-1-16,2013-1-18,2013-1-20,2013-1-22,2013-1-24,A,14,15,10,CDS,bps,90.0080.0070.0060.0050.00,:CEIC,24,310300290280270260250240230,Bloomberg22012,1,600,25.01%,26.02%,1,15
9、,3.0%,2.4%,23,3.5%,4.1%1-2,10,2004,0.1,12,20062000,23,(SLO)7,201207,201208,201209,201210,201211,201212,201301,201201,201202,201203,201204,201205,201206,1,0,8000,6000,2900,1900,A,1610%9,178000,4,8765432,:1:7:14,6000400020000-2000-4000,mm-dd01-04 03-04 05-04 07-04 09-04 11-04 01-04Wind18,-600019,11-11
10、-11-11-12-12-12-12-13-01 04 07 10 01 04 07 10 01Wind12,6,6%,10,7,3.3%3.1,543210,2.92.72.52.32.11.91.71.5,2002-01,2005-01,2008-01,2011-01,-10-9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10,20,Wind,21,Wind,10000,(,)6900,300,(,)2500,590049003900400020000 9002006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013,2001000100,24
11、0023002200210020001900,Wind,200,Wind,1800,8,1/4,1/11,1/18,1/25,2/1,2/8,2/15,2/22,3/1,3/8,3/15,3/22,1201,1202,1203,1204,1205,1206,1207,1208,1209,1210,1211,1212,04-06,04-20,05-04,05-18,06-01,06-15,06-29,07-13,07-27,08-10,08-24,09-07,09-21,10-12,10-26,11-09,11-23,12-07,12-21,01-04,01-18,1301,11-01,11-0
12、3,11-05,11-07,11-09,11-11,12-01,12-03,12-05,12-07,12-09,12-11,13-01,:,A,22,23,100,EPFR_China,1500,0,10005000-500-1000-1500,mm-dd,-500-1000-1500-2000-2500-3000-3500,500,-50,2410008006004002000,WindWind,29,2540200204060,WindWind,4%,9,2%0.83%,-5.63%,-5.86%,-6.46%,A,266%4%2%0%-2%,1/21-1/25,271.0%0.5%0.0
13、%-0.5%-1.0%-1.5%,0.64%,1/21-1/25-0.69%,-4%-6%-8%,-2.0%-2.5%-3.0%-3.5%,-2.21%,-2.44%,-2.74%,-2.72%-2.98%,Wind,-4.0%PM2.5,-3.50%Wind,281.0%0.0%-1.0%-2.0%-3.0%-4.0%,1/21-1/25,293%2.27%2.22%2.02%1%0%-1%-2%-3%-4%-5%,0.59%,1/21-1/25,-5.0%-6.0%,Wind2012,-6%-7%,Wind,-5.43%,-6.20%SLO1,2,2,3,2013,2012EPE,2013
14、EPE,2012EPB,2013EPB,A,H,H,2013E PB,(,),6.56.16.37.6,6.15.66.26.7,1.211.161.211.26,1.051.031.051.10,6%5%4%,1.151.141.15,10,201101,201103,201105,201107,201109,201111,201201,201203,201205,201207,201209,201211,:,:,:,1,2,A,30,15,31,2013,250200150100,1.031.021.021.011.011.00,12011511010510095,500,15,1.000
15、.990.99,9085,1/10 1/12 1/14 1/16 1/18 1/20 1/22 1/24,Wind,Wind,2012,12,103.7,107.6,97.8,100,19,10,2012,10,2012,12,321,1,30%2012,20-30,/,1,1.2%,11.5,1.4%3.4%,22.2%2013-1.2%,2005 2008,2011,1-2,8%-10%2012,4.9%12,7.3%201211,A2012,3233,2012Wind2012Wind,300,2007300,3443.532.521.510.50,300,Wind,2007,TTMPE,
16、12,-,A500500,AH,H,AH,96.17,96.76,H,3510%,500,300500,300,36,H,A/H,8%6%4%2%0%-2%,1.210.80.60.40.20,GICS,Wind,Bloombergbloomberg,Wind,5201320133201320132013201313,A,2013,2012,1800,2013,2,201320132013(2013-2015)20135%2013,20132013201320132013201320132013,72,/,2013,201320132013201320132013,31 21 2,3.1520
17、12,28%,2,2013,Android,2013,Wind14,2,A,A,A,PMI,PMI,3A,A10%,A,4,A,2013,1,2013,2,1,PMI,2013/1/28-2013/2/11Wind15,-,“,”,Analyst CertificationiiiThe analysts primarily responsible for the preparation of all or part of the research report contained herein hereby certify that:(i)the views expressed in this
18、 research report accurately reflect the personal views of each such analyst about the subject securities and issuers;and(ii)no part of the analysts compensation was,is,or will be directly or indirectly,related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in thisresearch report.“”,/,(,),(1),(2)
19、/20131,300,20%,6,300,5%,20%,2,6300,6300,300300300300300,-10%5%10%10%-10%10%10%,48,1568,8,1,100125,22,200122,518048,26,Foreign Broker-Dealer Disclosures for Distributing to the U.S.This report has been produced in its entirety by CITIC Securities Limited Company(“CITIC Securities”,regulated by the Ch
20、ina Securities RegulatoryCommission.Securities Business License Number:Z20374000).This report is being distributed in the United States by CITIC Securities pursuant toRule 15a-6(a)(2)under the U.S.Securities Exchange Act of 1934 exclusively to“major U.S.institutional investors”as defined in Rule 15a-6 and the SEC,no-action letters thereunder.,Z20374000,1934“,”,15a-6(a)(2),15a-6,
