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1、Buy,Buy,Buy,Buy,Deutsche BankMarkets Research,AsiaChinaUtilities,PeriodicalUtility/AlternativeEnergy,Date12 December 2012Michael Tong,CFAEric Cheng,CFA,Update on HK utility,CEI,CRP,Research Analyst(+852)2203 6167,Research Analyst(+852)2203 6202,Golden Sun and CoalRecently published reportsAlternativ
2、e Energy Alert Second batch of 2012 Golden Sun Program out:2.8GW in totalThe Ministry of Science and Technology of the PRC announced the details ofthe 2012 Golden Sun Program(second batch)on 11 December.The total sizeof the approved projects is 2.8GW,which is above the earlier expectation of2GW.Toge
3、ther with the first batch of 1.7GW announced in late April earlierthis year,the total size of projects under the 2012 Golden Sun Program wouldreach 4.5GW.,eric-Kai-Ting Wong,CFAResearch Analyst(+852)2203 6235kai-Companies FeaturedBeijing Enterprises(0392.HK),HKD51.45 Buy2011A 2012E 2013EP/E(x)19.75
4、19.01 14.72EV/EBITDA(x)10.6 12.1 10.3Price/book(x)1.4 1.5 1.4,Hong Kong Utilities 2013 tariffs:lower tariff stabilization fund,fuel costaccount deficit remainsCLP and Power Assets(PAH)announced their FY13 tariffs on 11 December,with CLP unchanged,while PAH is raising its basic tariff by 0.6%.Suchcha
5、nges came in below our 2%expectation,which we believe is mainly due toa rebate from the Tariff Stabilization Fund(TSF),as well as some politicalconsideration to keep the overall net tariff increase at low levels.,China Resources Power(0836.HK),HKD18.40P/E(x)EV/EBITDA(x)Price/book(x),Buy2011A 2012E 2
6、013E18.36 13.57 10.008.9 8.8 6.91.3 1.5 1.3,China Resources Power Alert Power output continues to improve inNovemberWe held a discussion with CRP after the release of the November power andcoal production output.What surprised us was that the contracted coal price isalready 9-10%higher than the spot
7、 coal price,and CRP has re-priced some ofits contracted coal downwards.,Longyuan Power(0916.HK),HKD5.31 Buy2011A 2012E 2013EP/E(x)16.5 10.4 8.8EV/EBITDA(x)10.9 8.1 7.6Price/book(x)1.5 1.1 1.0Dongfang Electric(1072.HK),HKD14.66,China Everbright Intl Alert Tomorrow may not be a better dayInvestors wer
8、e negatively surprised that a few of CEIs WTE projects wereyielding low returns.Nonetheless,they appear to believe the newly awardedWTE projects should be more profitable and CEI should still register 40%,P/E(x)EV/EBITDA(x)Price/book(x),2011A 2012E 2013E14.8 8.8 8.28.0 2.8 1.92.8 1.5 1.3,recurring E
9、PS yoy growth in FY13E based on the consensus forecast.They alsoappear to think the stock deserves a scarcity premium given that it is one of,Huaneng Power Intl(0902.HK),HKD6.952011A 2012E 2013E,the rare listed environmental players.,P/E(x),39.59 12.36,7.82,Sector news,EV/EBITDA(x)Price/book(x),9.70
10、.9,8.01.4,6.21.2,China wind turbine output in 1-10M12 dropped 17%yoy,BEWG(0371.HK),HKD1.91,China may levy 30-50%punitive tariffs on polysilicon from EU,US,and Koreain 1Q13,P/E(x),2011A 2012E 2013E24.79 15.20 11.93,International steam coal price over US$90/ton,EV/EBITDA(x)Price/book(x),20.91.8,13.91.
11、5,13.31.4,Coal inventory in power plants still at high level,Datang Renewable(1798.HK),HKD0.86,Shanxi coal output to increase by 78m tons next yearCompany news,P/E(x)EV/EBITDA(x),2011A 2012E 2013E12.74 5.56 4.6010.2 8.3 8.0,Hanwha SolarOne cuts FY12 panel shipment outlook,Price/book(x),0.9,0.5,0.5,Y
12、ingli to supply 288MW under Chinas Golden Sun projectsSee comps and share price analysis table on page 3._Deutsche Bank AG/Hong KongDeutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports.Thus,investors shouldbe aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest t
13、hat could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors shouldconsider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.DISCLOSURES AND ANALYSTCERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.MICA(P)072/04/2012.,12 December 2012UtilitiesUtility/Alternative EnergySector newsChina win
14、d turbine output in 1-10M12 dropped 17%yoy(CINN)According to the China Machinery Industry Federation,the output of wind turbines forthe first 10 months of this year dropped by 17%yoy.Meanwhile,the output ofhydropower equipment and turbine generators declined by 1.3%and 8.9%yoy,respectively,during th
15、e same period.China may levy 30-50%punitive tariffs on polysilicon from EU,US,and Korea in 1Q13(Digitimes)Chinas government has reportedly made a preliminary decision to levy punitive tariffson polysilicon imports from EU,South Korea,and US in 1Q13,in line with its antitrustprobe.The punitive tariff
16、s are likely to be around 30-50%or more.China-based solarmakers noted that the government is likely to announce the verdict before the EU doesto gain more bargaining chips in trade talks.International steam coal price over US$90/ton(Securities Times)According to the latest data,the global steam coal
17、 price has increased for fiveconsecutive weeks due to the new years purchase demand.The international threeports coal price index prices are all over US$90/ton,while the average growth of coalprice in Australia and North Africa reached 15%in the last month.Although the short-term growth is apparent,
18、experts remain pessimistic about the long-term price trend.Coal inventory in power plants still at high level(Guangzhou Daily)Northern China has entered coal consumption peak season;however,due tounrecovered downstream demand,the coal inventory in power plants is still at a highlevel,and the coal pr
19、ice also hovers at a low level.Shanxi coal output to increase by 78m tons next year()According to the media,the coal output of Shanxi province will increase by 78m tons in2013,with most output concentrated in 2H13.It also stated that the key integratedcapacity has released from 2012,and will have a
20、total output of 120m tons in 2012,alittle higher than 110m tons in 2011.Company newsHanwha SolarOne cuts FY12 panel shipment outlook(Reuters)Hanwhas quarterly loss nearly doubled,and the solar products maker cut its forecastfor full-year panel shipment,as it was hurt by import duties in the US and a
21、 relentlessslump in prices.Its net loss attributable to shareholders grew to USD51.3m(USD0.61/ADS)in 3Q12 from USD27.9m(USD0.33/ADS)in 3Q11.Revenue fell 33%toUSD153.7m.The company said it now expects to ship 825-850MW of panels in 2012,lower than its prior outlook of 900MW-1GW.Yingli to supply 288MW
22、 under Chinas Golden Sun projects(PV-tech)Yingli Green is to supply 10%of modules under the latest round of the Chinesegovernments Golden Sun programme.Chinas Ministry of Finance,Ministry of Scienceand Technology and national Energy Administration yesterday jointly approved2,835MW of projects under
23、the Golden Sun programme.Yingli,which had already beenchosen as a main supplier for Golden Sun,said it would supply up to 288MW of thelatest round.,Page 2,Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong,-,12 December 2012UtilitiesUtility/Alternative EnergyComps and share price analysisFigure 1:CompsLast Updated:12 Dec 2
24、012 08:26,Performance,Valuations,Returns&Gearing(%),Price,%to,Mkt.Cap.Absolute,Relative,P/E,EV/EBITDA,P/BV,RoE,ROA,Gearing,Yield,Company,Ticker,Price,Rating,target,target,US$m,3m,3m,12F,13F,14F,12F 13F 14F,12F,13F,14F,12F 13F,12F 13F,12F,12F,China IPPs,DatangCR PowerHuanengHuadianCPI,0991.HK0836.HK0
25、902.HK1071.HK2380.HK,HK$2.85HK$18.40HK$6.95HK$2.58HK$2.30,BuyBuyBuyBuyBuy,HK$3.50HK$24.50HK$8.60HK$3.50HK$3.25,23%33%24%36%41%,4,74211,14812,6052,2541,516,10%0%24%15%10%,-6%-14%6%-2%-6%,9.213.612.310.48.4,6.010.07.86.06.5,5.08.37.65.46.5,8.78.88.07.59.2,7.46.96.25.97.3,6.65.75.85.26.8,0.71.51.40.80.
26、7,0.71.31.20.70.6,0.6 8.31.2 11.81.1 11.90.6 7.90.6 8.2,11.814.316.812.410.1,1.33.82.40.91.7,1.84.73.81.62.2,331.8125.1247.2381.4232.1,3.83.04.12.45.8,China Gas,Towngas ChinaBJ EnterprisesENN EnergyChina GasKunlun EnergyCR Gas,1083.HK0392.HK2688.HK0384.HK0135.HK1193.HK,HK$6.37HK$51.45HK$33.90HK$6.12
27、HK$16.12HK$16.66,HoldBuyHoldHoldBuySell,HK$6.00HK$65.00HK$35.20HK$4.40HK$17.00HK$13.00,-6%26%4%-28%5%-22%,2,0227,5524,6663,59116,7004,437,6%-3%7%42%18%6%,-9%-17%-9%21%1%-9%,19.819.018.927.017.523.0,16.614.716.723.614.919.4,14.711.715.022.013.216.3,17.512.110.311.58.112.2,14.010.39.310.66.310.2,12.18
28、.38.310.35.19.0,1.51.53.42.52.83.1,1.41.42.92.32.52.7,1.31.32.52.22.22.4,8.28.819.710.819.015.1,9.010.019.211.217.915.0,4.44.25.73.27.64.9,5.04.86.24.27.75.0,27.415.747.781.42.827.4,1.01.71.30.91.70.8,China Water,Guangdong Inv.China EB IntlBEWG,0270.HK0257.HK0371.HK,HK$6.23HK$3.86HK$1.91,BuySellBuy,
29、HK$6.40HK$3.00HK$2.00,3%-22%5%,4,9951,9941,688,9%-2%19%,-7%-16%2%,13.818.315.2,12.815.311.9,11.412.110.0,8.212.013.9,7.610.813.3,6.39.012.3,1.71.91.5,1.61.71.4,1.5 12.71.5 14.61.3 10.3,12.711.712.1,8.37.23.4,8.95.93.7,2.221.677.4,3.31.42.0,China Power Equipment,Dongfang Elect.Shanghai Elect.Harbin E
30、lect.,1072.HK2727.HK1133.HK,HK$14.66HK$3.27HK$6.68,BuyBuyBuy,HK$20.10HK$4.70HK$9.90,37%44%48%,3,7915,4111,187,29%1%6%,11%-14%-10%,8.79.54.9,8.18.54.6,7.57.54.1,2.82.0-0.4,1.91.4-0.8,1.00.7-1.2,1.51.10.6,1.31.00.6,1.1 18.00.9 11.70.5 13.3,16.511.912.6,3.23.32.8,3.33.42.7,(60.5)(63.0)(56.7),1.23.23.2,
31、China Solar,GCL-Poly,3800.HK,HK$1.34,Hold,HK$1.20,-10%,2,677,15%,-1%,NM,NM,19.7,11.1,11.0,6.8,1.1,1.1,1.0,(1.0),(2.4),(0.3),(0.7),96.7,China Wind,Longyuan PowerHuaneng RenewablesDatang Renewable PowerGoldwindCHSTE,0916.HK0958.HK1798.HK2208.HK0658.HK,HK$5.31HK$1.13HK$0.86HK$3.00HK$2.67,BuyBuyBuyHoldB
32、uy,HK$8.30HK$1.95HK$1.50HK$3.00HK$4.00,56%73%74%0%50%,5,1141,232807896510,0%15%13%10%12%,-14%-1%-3%-6%-4%,10.46.65.545.17.8,8.84.34.617.05.4,7.23.43.711.34.6,8.17.68.315.45.8,7.66.98.011.45.0,6.96.37.410.04.5,1.10.60.50.50.4,1.00.50.50.50.4,0.9 11.50.5 9.80.4 9.70.5 1.10.4 5.4,12.313.510.82.97.3,3.2
33、2.21.60.52.3,3.53.21.81.33.2,146.7188.6287.644.872.2,1.92.36.00.53.2,Hong Kong,CLPHKGPower AssetsCKI,0002.HK0003.HK0006.HK1038.HK,HK$67.40HK$21.50HK$67.50HK$47.10,BuyHoldHoldHold,HK$69.50HK$16.20HK$59.70HK$47.00,3%-25%-12%0%,20,92724,11118,59014,524,4%15%7%-1%,-7%2%-5%-12%,16.530.815.312.3,15.227.31
34、5.111.9,13.925.715.011.7,8.716.617.244.7,7.914.516.137.5,7.413.315.232.2,1.94.32.31.6,1.84.02.21.5,1.73.72.11.4,10.815.615.714.1,12.315.114.813.1,4.17.69.811.2,4.97.49.610.8,74.928.625.15.4,3.92.03.83.7,Average,15.8,13.4,11.1,11.4,10.6,9.2,1.7,1.5,1.4,12.5,12.2,6.3,6.2,33.7,2.2,All estimates are DB
35、estimates and all stock data is from DatastreamDefinitions:1)Gearing is net debt/shareholders equity;2)EV is after deducting estimated value of associates;3)RoCE is defined as EBIT x(1-tax rate)divided by capital employedSource:Deutsche BankFigure 2:Share performance table,Last Updated:12 Dec 2012 0
36、8:26,avg.,avg.,avg.,Share price performancelocal currency,dailytrade,Relative performancelocal currency&local country index*,dailytrade,Share price statisticscurrent/current/,dailytrade,Company,Price,Rating,1wk,1m,3m,6m,12m,3yr,US$,1wk,1m,3m,6m,12m,3yr,US$,6mnth*52w H,52w L,52W H 52W L,10yr H,10yr L
37、,US$,1yr*,China IPPs,DatangCR Power,HK$2.85HK$18.40,BuyBuy,4%2%,3%12%,10%0%,-6%23%,16%29%,-14%26%,4.116.0,-1%-3%,-2%-6%7%-14%,-20%4%,6%18%,1%47%,4.812.6,3.1218.48,2.3813.16,0.911.00,1.201.40,9.6629.46,1.202.70,4.811.5,Huaneng,HK$6.95,Buy,1%,13%,24%,28%,82%,54%,15.6,-3%,8%,6%,9%,67%,80%,16.5,7.19,3.8
38、1,0.97,1.82,10.80,3.02,14.4,Huadian,HK$2.58,Buy,8%,28%,15%,34%,79%,25%,3.7,3%,21%-2%,14%,64%,46%,2.9,2.59,1.45,1.00,1.78,6.13,1.00,1.9,CPI,HK$2.30,Buy,12%,11%,10%,22%,30%,13%,1.8,6%,5%,-6%,4%,19%,32%,2.9,2.29,1.52,1.00,1.51,5.30,1.16,1.9,China Gas,Towngas ChinaBJ EnterprisesENN EnergyChina Gas,HK$6.
39、37HK$51.45HK$33.90HK$6.12,HoldBuyHoldHold,-1%2%-3%6%,4%2%3%41%,6%-3%7%42%,15%19%17%67%,52%18%25%118%,115%1%77%69%,1.18.65.813.0,-6%-3%-8%0%,-1%-9%-3%-17%-2%-9%34%21%,-2%1%-1%42%,39%8%14%100%,152%18%107%98%,0.96.36.45.6,6.6552.7535.406.27,4.1141.4522.053.37,0.960.980.960.98,1.551.241.541.82,6.6562.00
40、35.406.27,1.325.451.540.50,0.87.77.18.3,Kunlun Energy,HK$16.12,Buy,3%,8%,18%,27%,61%,57%,46.7,-2%,3%,1%,8%,47%,84%,26.3,16.44,9.97,0.98,1.62,16.44,0.53,32.7,CR Gas,HK$16.66,Sell,1%,-1%,6%,20%,55%,87%,30.7,-3%,-6%-9%,2%,41%,118%,7.8,18.46,10.52,0.90,1.58,18.46,1.11,5.9,China Water,Guangdong Inv.China
41、 EB IntlBEWG,HK$6.23HK$3.86HK$1.91,BuySellBuy,0%1%6%,2%1%10%,9%-2%19%,16%1%29%,32%32%-11%,43%2%-5%,5.56.82.2,-5%-4%1%,-3%-4%4%,-7%-16%2%,-2%-14%10%,21%21%-19%,68%20%12%,4.36.62.0,6.464.282.30,4.332.681.35,0.960.900.83,1.441.441.41,6.464.503.14,0.950.160.11,4.75.51.8,China Power Equipment,Dongfang El
42、ect.Shanghai Elect.Harbin Elect.,HK$14.66HK$3.27HK$6.68,BuyBuyBuy,14%8%7%,11%5%6%,29%1%6%,-17%1%-6%,-38%-4%-6%,-26%-8%-6%,6.07.92.4,8%3%2%,5%0%1%,11%-14%-10%,-30%-14%-20%,-44%-12%-14%,-13%8%10%,7.77.23.1,25.304.449.02,10.322.625.15,0.580.740.74,1.421.251.30,42.958.2228.50,0.401.420.69,8.48.43.2,Chin
43、a Solar,GCL-Poly,HK$1.34,Hold,5%,-12%,15%,-17%,-38%,-38%,28.4,0%,-16%,-1%,-30%,-43%,-28%,25.2,3.23,1.13,0.41,1.19,5.58,0.41,29.5,China Wind,Longyuan PowerHuaneng RenewablesDatang Renewable PowerGoldwind,HK$5.31HK$1.13HK$0.86HK$3.00,BuyBuyBuyHold,4%-5%1%-1%,2%-13%-7%-4%,0%15%13%10%,2%-15%-18%3%,-3%-3
44、7%-40%-31%,-41%NANANA,6.30.80.60.6,-1%-3%-14%-10%-17%-1%-4%-11%-3%-6%-9%-6%,-13%-27%-30%-13%,-11%-42%-45%-36%,-31%NANANA,4.40.60.40.6,7.182.161.575.38,4.490.870.712.47,0.740.520.550.56,1.181.301.211.21,10.902.542.4121.30,4.490.870.712.47,5.30.60.51.1,CHSTE,HK$2.67,Buy,5%,1%,12%,-2%,-24%,-85%,2.9,0%,
45、-4%-4%,-16%,-30%,-83%,2.6,5.47,2.09,0.49,1.28,23.60,2.09,3.5,Hong Kong,CLPHKGPower AssetsCKI,HK$67.40HK$21.50HK$67.50HK$47.10,BuyHoldHoldHold,0%1%-1%-1%,2%6%2%1%,4%15%7%-1%,7%32%25%9%,1%33%20%9%,29%50%61%65%,19.714.116.811.7,-2%-1%-3%-3%,-2%2%-2%-3%,-7%2%-5%-12%,-11%10%3%-9%,-16%11%0%-9%,26%46%57%61
46、%,19.913.721.214.9,69.021.568.749.3,62.315.953.342.4,0.981.000.980.96,1.081.351.271.11,75.021.568.749.3,31.25.728.913.3,21.915.021.614.1,Average*in USD millions*Relative performance is against the HSCEI for China IPPs,China gas,China solar,China w ater and China pow er equipment.Source:Deutsche Bank
47、,Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong,Page 3,12 December 2012UtilitiesUtility/Alternative EnergyRecently published reports,Alternative Energy Alert-2nd batch of 2012 Golden Sun Program out:2.8GW in totalHigher-than-expected volume from the 2nd batch Golden Sun ProgramThe Ministry of Science and Technology of
48、the PRC announced the details of the 2012Golden Sun Program(2nd batch)on Dec 11.The total size of projects approved is2.8GW,which is above the earlier expectation of 2GW.Together with the 1st batch of1.7GW announced in late April earlier this year,the total size of projects under the 2012Golden Sun
49、Program would reach 4.5GW.Looks marginally positiveWe believe the higher-than-expected approved amount is another move by thegovernment to rescue the sector.Recently,the government is introducing varioussupporting policies(incl.speeding up grid connection and tariff settlement,promotingthe construct
50、ion of distributed solar power system,etc.)to help stimulate domesticdemand.We also note that the government is likely to raise the official installationtarget further to 40GW from the at least 21GW target currently.This would imply atleast 10GW p.a.of installation in the next three years if that is
