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1、,高盛国际,2013 年 2 月 8 日能源市场周评本轮油价涨幅受供应的推动较少研究报告,本轮布伦特油价上涨与 2011 年和 2012 年情形类似布伦特油价近期上涨超过每桶 117.00 美元，达到 9 个多月以来的最高水平，接近我们对 2013 年一季度每桶 115.00 美元的预测。这与 2011 年和 2012 年的情形类似，当时布伦特油价也是在这一时间段前后开始大幅上涨。但我们认为本轮上涨受供应冲击的推动较少，更多因需求改善所致。需求大幅上升，供应冲击较弱需求方面，近几个月全球石油需求高于预期，这与经济活动升温一致（表现为全球 PMI 反弹）。供应方面，2011 年（利比亚产量下降）
2、和 2012 年（伊朗出口下降）的负面冲击导致全球产量下降，并推动市场进入季节性短缺。尽管今年并未出现类似的供应紧缩，但 11、12 月份 OPEC 产量因沙特产量大幅下降而走低。此外，美国目前的运输系统瓶颈也开始影响全球原油供应，因为加拿大原油产量增长日益因为难以运至美国炼油厂而受到威胁。,Stefan Wieler,CFA(212)357-7486 高盛集团杰夫可瑞(212)357-6801 高盛集团Samantha Dart+44(20)7552-9350 Johan Spetz,(212)357-9225 高盛集团我们预计短期内全球库存仍然紧张供应减少可能对已经较低的全球原油库存产生影
3、响。国际能源署在 1 月份的月度石油市场报告中再度下调了全球石油库存，而且大部分库存压力仍来自石油以外。经美国 NGL 和“其他”石油库存调整后，全球库存再度跌破去年的极低水平。尽管我们预计除非出现进一步供应冲击，今年不会出现类似 2011 年和 2012年油价大幅上涨的局面，但我们预计 2013 年一季度全球市场仍将趋紧，过去几周我们短期预测面临的风险已趋于上行。我们因此仍建议买入标普 GSCI 布伦特原油总回报指数，该指数受益于远期曲线现货升水的展期收益。投资者不应视本报告为作出投资决策的唯一因素。有关分析师的申明和其他重要信息，见信息披露附录，或参阅,2,2013 年 2 月 8 日,亚
4、太,This time its less about supplyBrent crude oil prices have rallied to over$117.00/bbl recently,the highest level in over 9 monthsand close to our forecast of$115.00/bbl for 1Q13.This is reminiscent of the last two years whenBrent prices began to rally sharply around the same time of year(see Exhib
5、it 1).The rallies in2011 and 2012 had somewhat similar drivers,with economic activity and oil demand surprising tothe upside and supply falling short of previous expectations in the spring due to the civil war inLibya(1.5 million b/d)and the US and European sanctions against Iran(1.25m million b/d).
6、Thispushed the market into a seasonally adjusted deficit,leading to slower-than-normal inventorybuilds in spring,and pushed prices sharply higher.Some of the drivers behind the 2011 and 2012rallies have partially lined up again,supporting Brent crude oil prices.However,this time webelieve the rally
7、is less driven by supply shocks and instead by improving demand.While we donot forecast a similar price spike this year as in 2011 and 2012 absent any further supply shocks,we expect the global market to remain tight throughout 1Q13 and the risks to our near-termforecast have shifted to the upside o
8、ver the past weeks.Further,we believe that the recent rallyhas been driven by improving fundamentals rather than by an increasing risk premium in themarket.While the recent news headlines suggest that tensions in the Middle East have beenincreasing,crude oil option markets continue to exhibit a nega
9、tive call skew and very low impliedvolatility,which is inconsistent with a view that the market attaches higher upside risk to prices.Demand has recently surprised to the upside,particularly in non-OECD countries,consistent withthe pick-up in economic activity as reflected in the rebound in global P
10、MIs(see Exhibit 2).InChina,implied oil demand rebounded strongly in 4Q12,up 800 thousand b/d year-over-year afterbeing roughly flat in 2Q12 and 3Q12.Further,oil demand in Brazil has been much stronger thanexpected as low hydro-electric generation levels led to the increased use of diesel fuel for po
11、wergeneration purposes.Economic activity in the OECD economies also looks a lot healthier lately.,Exhibit 1:The recent rally in Brent prices is reminiscentof the rally in 2011 and 2012$/bbl,Exhibit 2:Global economic growth picked upmeaningfully in JanuaryPMI,%,130.00,130.00,52.0,53.0,51.5,125.00120.
12、00,120.00110.00,51.050.5,52.552.0,50.0,115.00,100.00,49.5,51.5,49.0,110.00105.00100.00,90.0080.0070.00,48.548.047.547.0,51.050.550.0,Sep,Oct,Nov,Dec,Jan,Feb,Mar,Apr,2012-13,2011-12,2010-11(rhs),Global,Advanced Economies,Emerging Markets(rhs),Source:ICE and Goldman Sachs global ECS Research.,Source:C
13、NBS and Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.,Manufacturing production in both Germany and the UK rebounded strongly in December and oureconomists proprietary MAP score,which tracks economic data surprises relative to consensusshows that economic data began to surprise to the upside in the US in late 2
14、012.This is高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究,3,2013 年 2 月 8 日,亚太,consistent with growing oil demand growth in December and January after having been in a year-over-year decline for 12 straight months.On net,the IEA revised 4Q12 global demand growthhigher to 1.55 million b/d in the January oil market report from 850 th
15、ousand b/d in the Decemberreport.On the supply side,global output was heavily affected by the shortfall in Libyan production inspring 2011 and the shortfall in Iranian exports in spring 2012.While there has not been anysimilar supply shock this year,global crude output has been negatively impacted b
16、y SaudiArabias decision to cut production sharply in November and December.More specifically,theIEA reports that Saudi production dropped to 9.4 million b/d in December,from a peak of 10.1million b/d last summer.A Reuters report from January 11 suggests that production might havedropped to as low as
17、 9 million b/d in November and December without indicating whether thatincludes production from the Neutral Zone.We believe that this apparent output curtailment ispartly driven by the strong seasonality in Saudi domestic oil demand.Typically,Saudi refineryinput and direct crude use peak in the summ
18、er due to increased power consumption from air-conditioning and troughs in the first quarter,with an average peak-to-trough demand swing in the500-600 kbd range.The recent drop in output could therefore simply reflect these demandpatterns which were masked last year by the need to bring on productio
19、n in order to offset theeffects on global oil supply from the US and European sanctions against Iran.Nevertheless,therecent cut in Saudi production could put further pressure on already low global inventories.Importantly,however,unlike in 2011 and 2012,the recent drop in OPEC output is not the resul
20、t ofa supply shock but rather due to voluntarily cuts by Saudi Arabia and thus has created sparecapacity that can be brought back if needed.Consequently,absent any further supply shocks,webelieve the supply side will be just temporarily impacted this year.In addition to the Saudi production cuts,the
21、 ongoing bottlenecks in the US transportation systemare also beginning to impact global crude supply.More specifically,as we highlighted in our lastEnergy Watch(see Energy Watch:Houston,we might have a problem,January 22,2013),thegrowth in Canadian crude production is increasingly jeopardized by the
22、 inability to send the crudeto refineries in the United States.Absent any transportation bottlenecks,we would expectCanadian production to grow by 200 thousand b/d this year,with the Kearl Lake project with acapacity of 110 thousand b/d expected to come online over the next couple of weeks.However,w
23、ith the exception of some new rail capacity,we do not expect these transportation issues to bealleviated until 3Q13,which poses a major risk to Canadian crude production growth this year.These supply curtailments may weigh on already low global crude oil stocks.The IEA revisedglobal petroleum invent
24、ories lower again in its January monthly oil market report,pushing theyear-on-year overhang from 62 million barrels to 23 million barrels between September andNovember 2012(see Exhibit 3).More importantly,a large portion of this inventory overhangcontinues to consist of the wrong type of stocks.As w
25、e highlighted before(see Energy Weekly;Plenty of the wrong type of stocks,December 13,2012),most of the excess inventory is notcrude or petroleum products such as gasoline or distillates,but rather NGLs and condensates,which are not directly used in the transportation sector.The warm 2011/2012 winte
26、r resulted inrecord high NGL inventories at the end of the heating season,which were further bolstered bystrong supply growth from US shale oil and gas production.Strong condensate production on theback of growing shale oil production is also likely responsible for a large share of the currentcrude
27、oil inventory overhang in the United States.Adjusting global inventories for US NGL and“other”petroleum stock reveals that global inventories have again dropped below last yearsalready critically low levels(see Exhibit 4).高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究,4,2013 年 2 月 8 日Exhibit 3:Global inventories were revised lower
28、 again Million barrels2850November 2012IEA oil market,亚太Exhibit 4:and dropped below last years levels whenadjusted for the overhang in US NGL and other stocksGlobal petr.stocks ex US NGL and“other”;million barrels2550,28002750270026502600,reportJanuary 2013IEA oil marketreport,December 2012IEA oil m
29、arketreport,25002450240023502300,Jan,Feb,Mar,Apr,May,Jun,Jul,Aug,Sep,Oct,Nov,Dec,Jan,Feb,Mar,Apr,May,Jun,Jul,Aug,Sep,Oct,Nov,Dec,2012,2011,2010,2009,2012(Dec OMR),2012(Nov OMR),2012,2011,2010,2009,2008,Source:IEA,Goldman Sachs global ECS Research,Source:IEA,Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.,These s
30、upportive fundamental factors have pushed Brent prices closer to our 1Q13 target of$115/.00/bbl.We do not believe we will see a sharp rally in Brent this year similar to what we sawlast year,unless we get a similar supply shock again.That said,we do expect that the currenttightness in global invento
31、ries to persist through 1Q13 and the risks to our near-term forecasthave shifted to the upside.While we expect that 2Q13 will bring some easing to the globalinventory situation as new Permian pipelines begin to divert crude way from Cushing and theinventory overhang in the US Midwest moves to the US
32、GC,global inventories will likely remaintight.We therefore continue to recommend a long position in the S&P GSCI Brent total returnindex,which benefits from the roll yield provided by backwardation in the curve.高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究,5,2013 年 2 月 8 日Current trading recommendations,亚太,Current trades,First re
33、commended,Initial value,Current Value,Currentprofit/(loss)1,The Commodity Carry Basket:Crude,Corn and Base(CCB)Long the S&P GSCI Petroleum,Corn and Copper total return indices,short the S&P GSCI F3 Aluminium total return index,equally weighted,December 5,2012-2013-2014 Outlook,100.00,102.39,2.39,Lon
34、g NYMEX natural gas one-by-two call spreadLong one Jul-13 NYMEX natural gas$3.85/mmBtu call,short two Jul-13 NYMEX natural gas$4.70/mmBtu calls,November 11,2012-Natural Gas Watch,$0.12/mmBtu,$0.12/mmBtu,$0.00/mmBtu,Long Jun-13 NYMEX WTI crude vs.short Jun-13 ICE Brent crudeBuy 1 Jun-13 NYMEX WTI cru
35、de,sell 1 Jun-13 ICE Brent,August 21,2012-Energy Weekly,($12.33/bbl),($16.27/bbl),($3.94/bbl),Long S&P GSCI Brent crude oil total return indexLong S&P GSCI Brent crude oil total return index at initial index value of 1,174.26,August 21,2012-Energy Weekly,1,174.26,1,242.01,(5.00%),Rolled from a long
36、September 2012 NYMEX WTI Crude Oil position on 21-Aug-12,carrying forward a potential loss of 10.77%Long GoldBuy April 2013 COMEX Gold,sell$1,850/toz Apr-13 call,buy$1,575/toz Apr-13 put,October 11,2010-Precious Metals,$1,717.5/toz,$1,681.6/toz,$281.9/toz,Rolled from a long Dec-12 COMEX Gold future
37、position on 4-Dec-12 with a potential gain of$317.8/tozAs of close on February 6,2013.Inclusive of all previous rolling profits/losses.Source:Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究,4,1,2,3,4,6,2013 年 2 月 8 日Price actions,volatilities and forecasts,亚太,Prices and monthlychanges1,Volatilities
38、(%)and monthly changes2,Historical Prices,Price Forecasts3,units,06 Feb Change Implied2 Change Realized2 Change 3Q 11 4Q 11 1Q 12 2Q 12 3Q 12 4Q 12,3m,6m,12m,Energy,WTI Crude OilBrent Crude OilRBOB GasolineNYMEX Heating OilNYMEX Nat.GasUK NBP Nat.Gas,$/bbl$/bbl$/gal$/gal$/mmBtup/th,96.62116.733.043.
39、193.4265.87,3.535.420.280.170.13-0.78,22.521.621.021.032.614.5,-5.08-3.59-3.75-2.76-4.33-4.27,11.910.717.814.336.120.7,-5.7-6.4-2.5-2.6-4.02.2,89.54 94.06 103.03 93.35 92.20 88.23 102.50 105.00 97.00112.09 109.02 118.45 108.76 109.42 110.13 110.00 110.00 105.002.89 2.62 3.06 2.95 2.95 2.73 2.92 2.85
40、 2.562.98 2.98 3.16 2.89 3.00 3.05 3.10 3.09 3.014.06 3.48 2.50 2.35 2.89 3.54 3.75 3.75 4.2557.03 61.56 57.46 55.89 56.92 66.12 59.80 57.60 65.00,Industrial Metals,LME AluminumLME CopperLME NickelLME ZincLME Lead,$/mt$/mt$/mt$/mt$/mt,2,0998,24518,3252,1682,422,3916097012829,18.817.222.120.723.8,-0.
41、56-2.19-3.36-0.15-1.95,16.811.719.515.917.0,-6.4-6.1-2.5-7.0-7.5,2,430 2,115 2,219 2,019 1,950 2,018 2,000 2,000 2,1008,993 7,530 8,329 7,829 7,721 7,924 8,000 9,000 8,00022,037 18,396 19,709 17,211 16,396 17,025 16,500 16,500 17,0002,247 1,917 2,042 1,932 1,905 1,978 1,950 2,000 2,1002,449 2,009 2,
42、117 1,986 1,989 2,200 2,150 2,150 2,300,Precious Metals,COMEX GoldCOMEX Silver,$/troy oz$/troy oz,1,67831.9,291.9,12.923.6,0.110.25,11.524.8,-1.9-6.1,1,70438.8,1,68531.8,1,69332.7,1,61229.4,1,65429.9,1,71932.6,1,82530.5,1,80530.1,1,80030.1,Agriculture,CBOT WheatCBOT SoybeanCBOT CornNYBOT CottonNYBOT
43、 CoffeeNYBOT CocoaNYBOT SugarCME Live CattleCME Lean Hog,Cent/buCent/buCent/buCent/lbCent/lb$/mtCent/lbCent/lbCent/lb,7621,469723821422,22318.2127.386.9,14114427-53-0.7-5.70.7,25.819.824.520.428.125.220.89.814.3,-0.32-0.46-1.600.00-1.19-0.85-0.320.11-0.70,16.815.713.919.327.923.219.812.313.6,-1.80.0
44、-1.45.1-15.15.6-3.1-3.5-2.9,6901,35669610625629622911594,6151,175620952292,3832512188,6431,272641932052,3082512587,6411,426618801702,2222111788,8711,677783731722,4382112283,8461,484737731522,4212012782,9501,525825701552,30018.5130.085.0,9501,400825751652,40018.5128.094.0,8001,350650751752,50019.0130
45、.085.0,Monthly change is difference of close on last business day and close a month ago.Monthly volatility change is difference of average volatility over the past month and that of the prior month(3-mo ATM implied,1-mo realized).Price forecasts refer to prompt contract price forecasts in 3-,6-,and
46、12-months time.Based on LME three month prices.Source:Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research estimates.高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究,7,2013 年 2 月 8 日,亚太,信息披露附录分析师申明我们，Stefan Wieler,CFA、杰夫可瑞、Samantha Dart、Johan Spetz，在此申明，本报告所表述的所有观点准确反映了我们的个人看法，没有受到公司业务或客户关系因素的影响。高盛信息披露全球产品；分发机构高盛全球投资研究部在全球范围内为高盛的客户制作并分发研究产品。高盛分布在其全球各办
47、事处的分析师提供行业和公司的股票研究，以及宏观经济、货币、商品及投资组合策略的研究。本研究报告在澳大利亚由 Goldman Sachs Australia Pty Ltd（ABN 21 006 797 897）分发；在巴西由 Goldman Sachs doBrasil Corretora de Ttulos e Valores Mobilirios S.A.分发；股票及其他研究在加拿大由高盛集团分发；在香港由高盛（亚洲）有限责任公司分发；在印度由高盛（印度）证券私人有限公司分发；在日本由高盛证券株式会社分发；在韩国由高盛（亚洲）有限责任公司首尔分公司分发；在新西兰由 Goldman Sach
48、s NewZealand Limited 分发；在俄罗斯由高盛 OOO 分发；在新加坡由高盛（新加坡）私人公司（公司号：198602165W）分发；在美国由高盛集团分发。高盛国际已批准本研究报告在英国和欧盟分发。欧盟：高盛国际（由英国金融服务局监管）已批准本研究报告在英国和欧盟分发；Goldman Sachs AG（由联邦金融监管局监管）可能也会在德国分发。一般性披露本研究报告仅供我们的客户使用。除了与高盛相关的披露，本研究报告是基于我们认为可靠的目前已公开的信息，但我们不保证该信息的准确性和完整性，客户也不应该依赖该信息是准确和完整的。我们会适时地更新我们的研究，但各种规定可能会阻止我们这样
49、做。除了一些定期出版的行业报告之外，绝大多数报告是在分析师认为适当的时候不定期地出版。高盛是一家集投资银行、投资管理和证券经纪业务于一身的全球性综合服务公司。高盛全球投资研究部所研究的大部分公司与我们保持着投资银行业务和其它业务关系。美国证券经纪交易商高盛是 SIPC 的成员(http:/www.sipc.org)。我们的销售人员、交易员和其它专业人员可能会向我们的客户及我们的自营交易部提供与本研究报告中的观点截然相反的口头或书面市场评论或交易策略。我们的资产管理部门、自营交易部和投资业务部可能会做出与本报告的建议或表达的意见不一致的投资决策。本报告中署名的分析师可能已经与包括高盛销售人员和交
50、易员在内的我们的客户讨论，或在本报告中讨论交易策略，其中提及可能会对本报告讨论的证券市场价格产生短期影响的推动因素或事件，该影响在方向上可能与分析师发布的股票目标价格相反。任何此类交易策略都区别于且不影响分析师对于该股的基本评级，此类评级反映了某只股票相对于报告中描述的研究范围内股票的回报潜力。我们以及我们的关联机构、高级职员、董事和雇员，不包括股票分析师和信贷分析师，将不时地对本研究报告所涉及的证券或衍生工具持有多头或空头头寸，担任上述证券或衍生工具的交易对手，或买卖上述证券或衍生工具。在任何要约出售股票或征求购买股票要约的行为为非法的司法管辖区内，本报告不构成该等出售要约或征求购买要约。本
