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1、McKinsey was commissioned in Q1,2003 to:provide dedicated effort in conducting in-depth market survey and collect detailed information from 4 cities within 2 provinces to identify the key growth drivers in Chinas broad market;4 product categories were included:G.I.(Motilium),OBGY(Gyno.),Nail Infecti
2、on(Sporanox)provide business model/proposal for XJP to capture the broad market,McKinsey Broad Market Study Process,Project design(Q1,2003)Project review with local and regional J-C team(Apr.03)Survey market selection(Apr.03)Field work in 2 cities in Shandong(May 03)1st interim report(mid-June 03)Fi
3、eld work in 2 cities in Sichuan(mid-June mid-July 03)2nd interim report and Killer Idea workshop(end July 03)Final report(Aug.03)Presentation to corporate management(Sept.03),BROAD MARKET CAN BE DEFINED AS CLASS 2 HOSPITALS AND BELOW AT REGIONAL CITY LEVEL AND ALL HEALTH CARE INSITITUTIONS AT COUNTY
4、 LEVEL AND BELOW,Regional city,County,Town,Village,Class 3 hospital,Class 2&below hospital,Pharmacy,Clinic,Broad market,Source:McKinsey analysis,BROAD MARKET DRUGS INCLUDE OTC AND“OUT PATIENT”Rx DRUGS,Source:McKinsey analysis,Targeting easily diagnosed,non-life threatening diseases,Easy to use,Relat
5、ively cheap,Relatively safe with few side effect,Examples,OTC,Mature,New,Motilium,Gyno-Daktarin,Rx,Outpatient,In-hospital,Sporanox/Sibelium,Cipramil,Broad market drugs,McKinsey Key FindingsOverall Market Situation,BROAD MARKET REPRESENTS 94%OF OVERALL DEMAND FOR BROAD MARKET DRUGS,Class 3 hospital,B
6、road market drug sales breakdown by geographyPercent,*For only 2 according cities*Data for only Sichuan provinceSource:Interview with distributors,hospitals,pharmacies McKinsey analysis,All 4 cities,Broad market represents 94%of demand,100%=,3.6,2.3,1.3,Bn RMB,Shandong*,Sichuan*,City,100%=,21,6,2,Mn
7、 RMB,County,Town,Village,Motilium,Gyno-Daktarin,Sibelium*,Broad market,Sales breakdown of XJP productPercent,Other channel at city level,GDP per capita:#of county,9,19932,11,30018,5,80114,County is critical for broad market,DUE TO LOW INSURANCE COVERAGE AND RECENT REIMBURSEMENT POLICIY CHANGES,MOST
8、PATIENTS PAY BROAD MARKET DRUGS BY THEMSELVES,Insurance coverage in Yantai&Jining,For those with insurance,they can use their personal accounts(RMB 100300 per year)to cover their broad market drug expenseIn loosely controlled region(like Yantai),patients can treat the personal accounts as savings ac
9、countPatients pay on their own after the account balance is zeroA majority of population does not have insuranceThey pay broad market drugs by themselves,Insured,Self-pay,Total,City,County,Town,Village,3-5,95-97,20-30,70-80,10-15,85-90,1,99,0,100,Source:Interview;focus group;McKinsey analysis,PATIEN
10、TS GO TO PHARMACY/CLINICS FOR MINOR SYMPTOMS,Source:Interview;McKinsey analysis,Drivers,Increased price sensitivityChanged medical insurance policyImproved highway infrastructureRich information accessTVNewspaperIncreased life paceNo time to visit hospitalPharmaceutical market deregulation policyMor
11、e and more pharmacies&clinicsConveniently located,Severe symptoms,Town hospital,Minor symptoms,Largest hospitals in city and county,Middle-small hospitals in city and county,Pharmacy/clinics,Rural patients,City patients,A LARGE PROPORTION OF DRUG SALES COMES FROM RETAIL PHARMACIES;PHARMACY CLERKS BE
12、COME INFLUENTIAL,*40%of the patients changed their mind in pharmacySource:Interview;Focus group;McKinsey analysis,“What makes you change your perceived drugs?”*Pharmacy patient surveyPercent,Shandong city level,Perceived drug not available;persuaded by pharmacy clerk,Perceived drug available but per
13、suaded by pharmacy clerk,Changed mind by myself,“When I go to the pharmacy without a drug in mind,I just ask the pharmacy clerk to recommend.Then I will check the drugs introduction sheet,if this drug covers my disease,I will have a try”Yibin city level focus group,Total drug sales breakdownPercent,
14、Pharmacy,Hospital,Clinics,Overall,Motilium,Gyno Daktarin,Sibelium,CLINICS ARE PLAYING IMPORTANT ROLE ESPECIALLY AT COUNTY AND TOWN AND BELOW,Source:Interview;McKinsey analysis,Clinics share in total drug salesPercent,Overall,County,Town,Village,36%,26,34,100,Sichuan,Shandong,City,8,27%,8,27,100,3,G.
15、I.Category Review,*More than half of patients going to large hospitals will purchase drug at retail pharmacies*Branded generic drugs referring to generic drugs that run advertising,creating brand awareness in consumersSource:Physician and pharmacy interviews;McKinsey analysis,FOR GI DISFUNCTION DRUG
16、S AS A WHOLE THERE IS SIGNIFICANT LATENT DEMAND;PEOPLE GENERALLY SEEK TREATMENT IN CLINICS AND PHARMACIES,Latent market demand 60%of total patients do not seek any treatmentAs market leader,increasing awareness for Motilium to further boost treatment rate is one of the key demand levers Small clinic
17、s and pharmacies are important channels75%of patients seeking treatment go to clinics and pharmacies,Total incidence,Do not seek treatment,Go to large hospital*,Go tosmall clinic,Self medicate at pharmacy,Seek treatment,Not aware,Percent,Motiliums market share,Motilium has a vast room for grow becau
18、se of significant leakage along the patient flow60%of GI patients that do seek treatmentCurrent market share of 4%which could be grown furtherAmong the 40%people who seek GI treatment,about 30%would buy banded generic drugs*,while the rest would buy non-brand generic drugs,1.6%,FOR GI DRUGS,POLARIZA
19、TION IS BECOMING MORE OBVIOUS,Anecdotes,Quantitative examples,Sub-TA sales by channelPercent,Source:Hospital pharmacy interviews;retail pharmacy interviews;McKinsey analysis,1997,1999,2002,Retail Pharmacy,Hospital,Clinic,“Unlike things in the past,patients nowadays generally try to avoid coming to h
20、ospitals because of hospitals expensive charges.For GI disease,most people can judge by themselves.So they usually prefer to go to pharmacies or clinics to buy drugs.”Qixia GI physician interview,“Most GI patients are repeating patients.They know which drugs to buy,and where the drugs are cheap.So u
21、sually they will choose pharmacies&clinics.”Jining retail pharmacist interview,Yantai,1997,1999,2002,Retail Pharmacy,Hospital,Clinic,Jining,Importance of GI drug sales in hospital is diminishingRetail pharmacy would be the major battle field for GI drugs,ROUGH ESTIMATION,SALES OF GI DRUGS ARE MORE C
22、ONCENTRATED TOWARDS VILLAGE AND COUNTY,WHILE THE MARKET IS FRAGMENTED WITH MANY DIFFERENT DRUGS,Percent,Motilium,Weiershu(谓尔舒),Mosapride(莫沙比利),Tidines*(替丁类药),Others*,Sidashu(斯达舒),*Others including more than 200 different GI drugs such as Kuiweipian(快胃片)、Weifuan(w胃复安)、Jinweixiaoshipian(健胃消食片)、999(三九胃
23、泰)、丹桂香、胃舒平、健胃酵母片、果胶铋、邦消安、调胃片、胃气痛片、湿胃舒、养胃舒,and many other cheap non-branded generic drugs*Including Cimetadine,Ramitidine McKinsey analysis,Total=RMB 243.05 million,Village,County,Town,City,IN BROAD MARKET,MOTILIUM IS LOSING OUT BIG TIME IN RETAIL PHARMACY CHANNEL,Retail pharmacy,Hospital,Clinic,Sour
24、ce:Distributor interviews;hospital pharmacy interviews;retail pharmacy interviews;McKinsey analysis,Sales by channelMn RMB,%,Motilium,Sidashu(斯达舒),Weiershu(谓尔舒),Mosapride(莫沙比利),Tidines(替丁类药),GI drugs,12,35,53,243.05,14,34,52,9.83,6,66,29,6.62,5,76,20,7.30,40,38,21,7.93,4,22,73,44.64,YANTAI&JINING,AN
25、D IN COUNTY GEOGRAPHY,City,County,Town,Village,Source:Distributor interviews;hospital pharmacy interviews;retail pharmacy interviews;McKinsey analysis,Sales by strataMn RMB,%,Motilium,Sidashu(斯达舒),Weiershu(谓尔舒),Mosapride(莫沙比利),Tidines(替丁类药),GI drugs,15,26,19,243.05,41,15,22,20,9.83,43,22,37,26,6.62,
26、15,26,44,21,7.30,9,18,50,23,7.93,10,1,17,17,44.64,66,YANTAI&JINING,Vaginal Infection Category Review,FOR VAGINAL INFECTIONS,PATIENTS ARE MORE AWARE OF THE DISEASE AND GO TO HOSPITAL FOR TREATMENT,Percent,Less latent demand Almost all patients aware of the disease due to obvious symptoms and regular
27、check up80%of patients seek treatmentLarge hospital is important influencing channel Most patients seeking treatment will go to large hospitalsThough half or more will purchase prescribed drugs in pharmaciesMarket player should focus on share gain,Total incidence,Do not seek treatment,Go to large ho
28、spital,Go tosmall clinic,Self medicate at pharmacy,Seek treatment,Not aware,Source:Physician,pharmacy and clinic interviews,Hospital is still number 1 channel to push Gyno Daktarin salesPharmacy is becoming increasingly important,30%would use branded drugs,while 70%would use non-branded drugs,FOR GY
29、NO DAKTARIN,HOSPITAL IS CRITICAL FOR PRESCRIPTION BUT PURCHASING HAS BEEN GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO RETAIL PHARMACY,Anecdotes,Quantitative examples,Sub-TA sales by channelPercent,Source:Hospital interviews;Retail pharmacy interviews;McKinsey analysis,1997,1999,2002,Retail Pharmacy,Hospital,Clinic,“Gyno
30、patients will usually come to hospital for body check and go to pharmacies to refill drugs.For such kind of disease,people still trust large hospitals.However,more and more people purchase drugs in pharmacies”Liangshan No.2 hospital,Gyno physician interview,“I dont have many gyno patients.This is be
31、cause of 3 reasons.First,I am a man;second,I dont have facilities to check the body in the clinic;third,patients are usually familiar with me and they will feel awkword.”Zhangyongxin town level clinic interview,Yantai,1997,1999,2002,Retail Pharmacy,Hospital,Clinic,Jining,ESTIMATE,IN ADDITION,GYNO DA
32、KTARIN NEEDS TO GROW THE MARKET SHARE ESPECIALLY THOSE OF COUNTY AND TOWN,Source:Distributor interviews;hospital pharmacy interviews;retail pharmacy interviews;McKinsey analysis,Sales by strataMn RMB,%,Gyno Daktarin,Xiaomishuan(消糜栓),Mycostatin(制霉菌素),Shuangzuotaishuan(双唑泰栓),Jieeryin(洁尔阴),Vaginal infe
33、ction drugs,YANTAI&JINING,City,County,Town,Village,26,50,20,71.38,42,47,12,2.47,24,43,32,4.54,41,46,13,4.46,3,59,38,5.46,9,43,27,5.83,4,0,0,0,0,22,Nail Fungal Infection Category Review,FOR TINEA UNQUIUM DRUGS,DEMAND LATENCY IS EVEN HIGHER,Percent,Extremely latent demand with increasing awareness 90%
34、of patients do not seek treatmentAwareness and treatment rate is increasing slightly due to competitors heavy advertisingOnly around 10%of those seeking treatment purchase drugsOnly 1%would follow prescription,Total incidence*,Do not seek treatment,Seek treatment,Not aware,*The incidence rate is aro
35、und 5%in ShandongSource:Physician and pharmacy interviews;McKinsey analysis,Only 1%actually buy drugs,Low treatment rate is mainly due to affordability issue of the patientsSporanoxs potential market as a Tinea Unquium drug is small,and is unlikely to be a broadmarket hit,Go to large hospital,Go toc
36、linic,Go to pharmacy directly,HOSPITAL CHANNEL IS STILL DOMINATING TINEA UNQUIUM DRUG MARKET WHILE PHARMACY CHANNEL IS PICKING UP,Anecdotes,Quantitative examples,Sub-TA sales by channelPercent,Source:Hospital pharmacy interviews;Retail pharmacy interviews;McKinsey analysis,1997,1999,2002,Retail Phar
37、macy,Hospital,Clinic,“We gradually carry some Tinea Unquium drugs in these years.Because more and more patients,although still quite small in amount,come here to ask for Liangjia after seeing its advertisement.I think most patients still go to hospital for treatment.”Jining Kangfu pharmacy,“I seldom
38、 see Tinea Unquium patients.And also,because the drugs are very expensive,I didnt carry them.If there is really someone come to my clinic,I will suggest them to pharmacy.”Yantai clinic interview,Yantai,1997,1999,2002,Retail Pharmacy,Hospital,Clinic,Jining,*Others including around five drugs,such as
39、Huihuangmeisu（灰黄霉素）,Lisulao（里素劳）,Lianghuija（亮灰甲）etc.Source:Distributor interviews;physician interviews;patient interviews;McKinsey analysis,THERE ARE ONLY A FEW COMPETITORS AT CITY AND COUNTY LEVEL FOR SPORANOX;LIANGJIA IS DOING BETTER THAN SPORANOX AT RETAIL PHARMACIES DUE TO HEAVY ADVERTISING,Perc
40、ent,Others*,Total=RMB 9.22 million,County,Town,City,Sporanox,Lanmeishu(兰美抒),Liangjia(亮甲),Village,0,Source:Distributor interviews;physician interviews;patient interviews;McKinsey analysis,THERE ARE ONLY A FEW COMPETITORS AT CITY AND COUNTY LEVEL FOR SPORANOX;LIANGJIA IS DOING BETTER THAN SPORANOX AT
41、RETAIL PHARMACIES DUE TO HEAVY ADVERTISING,City,Total,Retail pharmacy,Hospital,Clinic,County,Share of leading drugs within Tinea Unquium Yantai&JiningMn RMB,%,Total,Retail pharmacy,Hospital,Clinic,4.0,2.2,1.8,0.1,5.0,0.8,4.1,0.2,100%=,Sporanox,Lanmeishu*(兰美抒),Liangjia(亮甲),Others,Liangjia has relativ
42、ely high market share in retail pharmaciesAt city level,Lanmeishu has 31%of hospital channel,better than SporanoxHospital at county level and above should be the main focus,PRICE IS A HUGE ISSUE FOR SPORANOX,Sporanox is too expensive for most farmers whose annual income is only around RMB 2,000Even
43、at county level,cost of using sporanox for effective treatment is higher than total drug expense per year for an average person,County level price threashold,City level price threashold,County level annual drug expense per person,Average insurance allowance per year,Cost of sporanox as a derma drug,
44、Source:Interviews;McKinsey analysis,Cost of sporanox as a STD drug,RMB,FOR SPORANOX,XJP SHOULD CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON HOSPITALS,Retail pharmacy,Hospital,Clinic,Source:Distributor interviews;hospital pharmacy interviews;retail pharmacy interviews;McKinsey analysis,Sales by channelMn RMB,%,Sporanox,Lanm
45、eishu*(兰美抒),Liangjia(亮甲),Tinea Unquium,65,33,9.22,69,30,1,2.21,84,15,0,1.50,12,87,1.26,2,2,YANTAI&JINING,AND AT CITY AND RICH COUNTIES,County,Town,Village,Source:Distributor interviews;hospital pharmacy interviews;retail pharmacy interviews;McKinsey analysis,Sales by strataMn RMB,%,Sporanox,Lanmeish
46、u*(兰美抒),Liangjia(亮甲),City,Tinea Unquium drugs,44,54,9.22,48,50,2,2.21,53,47,1,1.50,67,29,1.26,2,4,0,1,1,0,YANTAI&JINING,Vertigo Drug Category Review,THERE IS UNTAPPED DEMAND IN TWO OF THE THREE PRODUCT-RELATED TAs,GI disfunction patient flow in broad market percent,Source:Hospital McKinsey analysis,
47、VI patient flow in broad marketpercent,Vertigo patient flow in broad marketPercent,Total incidence,100,30,3040,2040,Not aware,Do not seek treatment,Seek treatment,Total incidence,100,1,2040,6080,Not aware,Do not seek treatment,Seek treatment,Total incidence,Not aware,Do not seek treatment,Seek treat
48、ment,100,1,99,0,Vertigo incidence rate is only 1%-3%Sibelium can target more indications with much larger patient population,Huge latent demandAwareness can be increased by patient educationAffordability can be improve due to economic development,BY GEOGRAPHY,COUNTY LEVEL AND ABOVE CONSUME A DOMINAN
49、T SHARE OF SIBELIUM,City,County,Town,Village,Source:Interviews;McKinsey analysis,Percent,Total=RMB 2.0 million for sales of Sibelium in Deyang and Yibin,Sales of Sibelium is more dominant in city and county level Market share of Sibelium in total drugs for dizziness is also higher in county level an
50、d above,Sibeliums market share in dizziness drug sales in Deyang and Yibin,City,County,Town,Village,100%=(Rmb Mm),1.65,2.64,1.88,1.79,Sibelium,Others,McKinsey Broad Market Proposal,WE NEED TO SOLVE THREE CRITICAL ISSUES TO ACHIEVE OUR ASPIRATION FOR BROAD MARKET,InvestmentReturnsPeople developmentOr
