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1、19,90,19,93,19,92,20,00,19,96,19,91,20,03,20,04,19,99,20,06,19,95,20,07,20,02,20,05,19,94,19,97,19,98,20,01,16,14,12,106,108,10,8,6,4,110,112,06,07,08,million,800,600,400,200,0,12,10,%,8,6,4,2,0,-2,Asia Economics AnalystIssue No:09/02February 4,2009Goldman Sachs Global ECS Asia Researchat https:/,Mi
2、chael B,Can growth recover before China rebalances?,+852 2978 1802Goohoon K,The Chinese economy is experiencing itssharpest slowdown in 30 years,as industrialproduction growth drops on the back of weaker,China:Financial conditions easing isexpected to boost activity growth in 6 monthsor so,+822 3788
3、 1775,external demand and real estate investment.,%chg yoy18,Financial Conditions Index104,Tushar P+91 22 6616 9042Enoch F+852 2978 0784Helen(Hong)Q+852 2978 1630Yu S,We analyze current industrial structures,inventory levels and exposure to externaldemand to see what has changed in Chinasability to
4、weather the global economic crisisthis time,compared with the previousdownturns in 1998 and 2001.We believe the Chinese economy is in a betterposition to avoid a hard landing in the shortterm,but will need to rotate the growth driver tobe more domestic-demand driven forsustainable growth close to th
5、e trend level of9.5%-10%year on year over the medium tolong term.,Activity growth(GS China Activity Index)GS China FCI(RHS,inverted)means financial conditions easing297 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05Source:CEIC,GS Global ECS Research.Indias rural population“A Fortune at TheBottom of the Pyramid”Over 800 mi
6、llion people in rural,+852 2978 1260Mark Tan,Policy stimuli will likely boost growth in thenext few quarters,but eventually will have toshift towards rebalancing the economic,12001000,Rural populationUrban population,India,+852 2978 2676Pranjul B+91 22 6616 9169Shirla Sum,structure over the long ter
7、m.India:Four macro themes for 2009The Indian economy will go through achallenging time in 2009.We expect GDPgrowth to slow to 5.8%in FY10 due to rapidlyfalling external demand and slowing investment,+852 2978 6634Fiona Lake(Global Markets),demand.We also expect WPI inflation toaverage 1%in FY10,down
8、 sharply from anestimated 9%in FY09.Our strategists remainunderweight on the Indian stock market.In thisbearish environment,we identify four macro,Source:World Development Indicators,CEIC,GS Global ECSResearch.Singapore:A more protracted slowdown inGDP growth than previous episodes,+852 2978 6088,th
9、emes which we think will generate investmentopportunities and provide some downside,September 2000September 1997,Real GDP Growth,March2000,protection in 2009.,Current cycle,Singapore:A more protracted slowdownWe are revising down our 2009 GDP growthforecast to-4.0%from-2.2%.Going into 2010,we expect
10、 GDP growth to average 2.5%for theyear.,-4-6-8,2001 tech bust1997 Asian crisisForecast,March2003,Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10Source:Consensus Economics,GS Global ECS Research.Important disclosures appear at the back of this document,Page 11,2,Go
11、ldman Sachs Global ECS Research,Asia Economics Analyst,ContentsCan growth recover before China rebalances?We analyze current industrial structures,inventory levels and exposure to external demand to see what has changed inChinas ability to weather the global economic crisis this time,compared with t
12、he previous downturns in 1998 and 2001.We believe the Chinese economy is in a better position to avoid a hard landing in the short term,but will need to rotate thegrowth driver to be more domestic-demand driven for sustainable growth close to the trend level of 9.5%-10%year on year,over the medium t
13、o long term.First published on February 4,2009,Page 3Helen(Hong)Qiao,Yu SongIndia:Four macro themes for 2009The Indian economy will go through a challenging time in 2009.We expect GDP growth to slow to 5.8%in FY10 due torapidly falling external demand and slowing investment demand.In this bearish en
14、vironment,we identify four macrothemes which we think will generate investment opportunities and provide some downside protection in 2009.,First published on January 20,2009,Tushar Poddar,Pranjul BhandariSingapore:A more protracted slowdownWe are revising down our 2009 GDP growth forecast to-4.0%fro
15、m-2.2%.Going into 2010,we expect GDP growth toaverage 2.5%for the year.We maintain our view that the Monetary Authority of Singapore will likely ease monetary policyby conducting a downward re-centering of the SGD NEER policy band,and the latest deterioration in macro data could,prompt an earlier mo
16、ve before the scheduled policy meeting in April.First published on January 19,2009FCI contribution charts for Asia ex JapanRegional Risk IndicatorsStatistical AppendixIssue No:09/02,Page 17Enoch FungMark TanPage 21Page 23Page 25February 4,2009,-4,-6,6,4,2,0,-2,-4,-6,-8,3,Goldman Sachs Global ECS Res
17、earch,Asia Economics Analyst,Can growth recover before China rebalances?The Chinese economy is experiencing its sharpest slowdown in 30 years,as industrial productiongrowth drops on the back of weaker external demand and real estate investment.We analyze current industrial structures,inventory level
18、s and exposure to external demand tosee what has changed in Chinas ability to weather the global economic crisis this time,compared with the previous downturns in 1998 and 2001.We believe the Chinese economy is in a better position to avoid a hard landing in the short term,but will need to rotate th
19、e growth driver to be more domestic-demand driven for sustainablegrowth close to the trend level of 9.5%-10%year on year over the medium to long term.Policy stimuli will likely boost growth in the next few quarters,but eventually will have to shifttowards rebalancing the economic structure over the
20、long term.,In the past few months,the forceful impact of the globaleconomic crisis seems to have been transmitted from,Exhibit 1:Industrial production growth droppedmore and faster this time.,industrialized countries to emerging market economies.Chinas growth slowdown,which has been signaled by,%chg
21、25,Industrial Production,%chg10,high-frequency data over the past few months in 2008,was validated by the lowest quarterly reading of realGDP growth(of 6.8%yoy in 4Q2008)in 10 years.Despite some recent tentative signs of growthdeceleration beginning to moderate,we believe Chinasgrowth momentum will
22、remain weak before theinfluence of policy stimulus kicks in and the externalenvironment improves later this year.In this article,we examine the macro dynamics and,20151050-5-10,%yoy%qoq,sa(RHS),86420-2,policy responses in the middle of a sharp and severeslowdown in China and attempt to answer the fo
23、llowingquestions:1)How does the current growth slump inChina compare to previous cycles?2)What has changedin China to make it easier or more difficult to weather theglobal economic crisis this time?3)How much of theslowdown will be offset by the governments policyresponse to stimulate growth in the
24、short term?4)Whatwill be needed to rebalance the Chinese economy to keepgrowth close to the trend level of 9.5%-10%over themedium to long term?,-151997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009Note:growth rates adjusted for the Chinese-New-Year effect.Source:CEIC,GS Global ECS Rese
25、arch.Exhibit 2:So has the electricity productiongrowth so far%chg Electricity Production%chg30 108,On balance,we believe the risk of a hard landing inChina is limited,and quarterly growth is likely to surpass7%towards the end of 2009 with the help of policystimuli.However,before China manages to reb
26、alance itseconomy to be more domestic-demand driven,growthwill likely remain below the trend of 9.5%-10%yoy overthe medium term.,20100-10-20,%yoy%qoq,sa(RHS),-10,A sharp and severe slowdown,-30,-12,1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009China has seen a sharp and severe grow
27、th deceleration in,industrial production(IP)accompanied by weakergrowth in investment and exports.IP growth declinedIssue No:09/02,Source:CEIC,GS Global ECS Research.,February 4,2009,50,40,30,20,10,0,45,40,35,30,25,20,15,-10,-5,5,0,-15,4,Goldman Sachs Global ECS Researchsharply in both sequential an
28、d year-on-year(yoy)termsin 4Q2008,on the back of lower external demand and,Asia Economics AnalystExhibit 3:Real investment growth declined andmore notably in real estate,weak real estate investment.After adjusting for theChinese New Year effect,growth rates in November andDecember 2008 have already
29、decelerated to their lowestlevels since these monthly series began in 1995,at a pace,%chg yoy,Fixed Asset InvestmentGS estimated nominal growthGS estimated real growthGS estimated real growth in real estate,not seen even during the Asian financial crisis of 1997-1998 and when the tech bubble burst i
30、n 2001(seeExhibit 1).Although judging from the December data,the deceleration in IP growth seems to have eased,webelieve it is too early to conclude on whether it signalsthat growth deceleration is bottoming out or just atemporary blip on a downward trend based on a singledata point.-10,Correspondin
31、gly,electricity production,which is,Jan-05,Jul-05,Jan-06,Jul-06,Jan-07,Jul-07,Jan-08,Jul-08,generally a good proxy for IP activities,also contracted,visibly towards the end of 2008 compared with a yearearlier(see Exhibit 2),reflecting the fact that energy-intensive industrial sectors(e.g.,mostly hea
32、vy industrysectors)have probably have been hit by a heavier blowfrom the global economic crisis than less energy-,Source:CEIC,GS Global ECS Research.Exhibit 4:Exports growth will likely remainlackluster for some more time,intensive ones.Meanwhile,the nominal fixed asset investment(FAI),%chg yoy,3mma
33、5040,China Exports,%qoq sa ann8060,series seems to indicate that despite the recent,deceleration,investment growth has been relativelystable(see Exhibit 3).However,a more careful looksuggests investment growth in real terms has fallenbelow the 20%yoy level in 2008(compared withaverage growth of 23%i
34、n 2005-2007).In addition,realestate investment growth fell into negative territory,3020100,40200-20,towards the end of 2008,as property developersresponded to weaker sales and constrained cash flows.,-10-20,%yoy 3mma%qoq(RHS),-40-60,While the decline in property investments only accounts,1997,1999,2
35、001,2003,2005,2007,2009,for part of the slowdown in IP,we believe export,weakness is the other main driver.Within a month,Chinas exports growth has dropped more than 20percentage points(ppt)from 19.1%in October to-2.2%yoy in November 2008.Although Chinas exportscontraction so far still seems milder
36、than some other,Source:CEIC,GS Global ECS Research.Exhibit 5:Weaker demand for both consumerand investment goods posed a drag on Chinasexports growth,neighboring economies(e.g.,Korea and Taiwan),percentage point,Contribution to Exports Growth,judging from past experience of external demandslowdowns
37、in 1997-1998 and 2001 as well as themagnitude of the global economic crisis this time,therisk of seeing further contraction in Chinese exports inthe near future and a sustained period of lacklustergrowth before global demand recovers from its troughremains appreciable(see Exhibit 4).10,Compared with
38、 previous episodes of export weakness,Chinese exporters are facing more obstacles this time,asexternal demand declines for both consumer andinvestment goods(see Exhibit 5).In contrast,after the,Food,consumer electronics and misc.consumer goodsTextiles&textile articlesRaw materials&base metalsMachine
39、ry&(non-consumer)transportation equipment,Asian financial crisis in 1997,the exports growth,1Q97,1Q98,1Q99,1Q00,1Q01,1Q02,1Q03,1Q04,1Q05,1Q06,1Q07,1Q08,slowdown was mainly driven by slower exports of,consumer goods.At that time,Chinas exports structurewas largely skewed towards consumer goods,theIss
40、ue No:09/02,Source:CEIC,GS Global ECS Research.,February 4,2009,20,15,10,5,%yoy,22,20,18,16,14,12,10,8,6,4,2,0,5,Goldman Sachs Global ECS Researchdemand of which is often sensitive to price/exchange ratechanges.When neighboring countries depreciated theircurrencies after the financial crisis,China m
41、aintained itspeg against the USD,which impaired Chinese exporters,Asia Economics AnalystExhibit 6:Exports to non-G3 destinations haveprovided a cushion to Chinas exportsdeceleration so farPercentage Point Contribution to Year-on-year China Exports Growth,competitiveness in these areas and dragged do
42、wnChinas exports growth.The second episode of exportsgrowth slump took place after the US tech bubble burstin 2001.Chinas exports of investment goods deceleratedmore significantly than consumer goods,mainly due tothe negative shock on US business capex.On the otherhand,US household balance sheets st
43、ill looked okay atthe beginning of the housing boom.Now after thecurrent financial crisis has dragged the US and othermajor industrialized economies into recession,neither,ppt,3mma0-5,(adjusted for HK re-exports)USAEU,the business sector nor overseas consumers are ideallyplaced to absorb Chinese exp
44、orts.,-10,97,98,99,00,01,02,03,Developed Asia*Rest of the world04 05 06,07,08,However,the silver lining of the story is that demand forChinese goods from outside the G-3 seems to have heldup better than back in 1999 and 2001(see Exhibit 6).Over the past 12 years,the share of Chinas exportsgoing to t
45、he U.S.and developed Asia(Japan,Korea andTaiwan)has declined from 32%and 27%in 1997 to 19%and 17%respectively in 2008.Meanwhile,exports goingto non-traditional export destinations(such as the MiddleEast,Latin America and Africa)increased from 18%to41%of total exports over the same period.Deepenedtra
46、de diversification and a slower deceleration outsidethe G-3 economies have provided a cushion to Chinasexports deceleration so far,although it remains unclearwhether it can hold up for longer when the ripple effectsof the economic crisis passes on to more countries.Lastly,official data suggests the
47、retail sales of consumergoods has held up reasonably well in both nominal and,*Developed Asia includes Japan,Korea and Taiwan.Source:CEIC,GS Global ECS Research.Exhibit 7:Retail sales growth has held up wellso far but faces some headwindPersonal Expenditure and Real Retail SalesReal retail salesReal
48、 per capita personal expenditureParkson same store sales,real growth terms over the past few quarters(see Exhibit,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,7),although there is more downward pressure on privateconsumption from weaker expenditure and incomegrowth and a negative wealth effect(see Lower growthand
49、inflation in the near termrevising down our 2008and 2009 GDP growth and inflation forecasts,AsiaEconomics Flash,November 15,2008).With particularlyweak sales of discretionary goods,our China retailanalyst expects the slowdown trend to continue,amidwarnings on sales revenue declines of department sto
50、resin 4Q2008(see China:Retail:November retails salesrebound from October,but slowdown trend unlikely toreverse soon,December 15,2008).What is different this time around?Arguably,the Chinese economy is at a different positiontoday than it was in either1998 or 2001.We believesome factors will help lim
