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1、London,Economist,ab,Global Economics Research,GlobalUBS Investment ResearchGlobal Economic Perspectives,Global Outlook 2013-14Generally better,but not without riskAs is our autumn custom,we launch our Global Economic Outlook,including aninitiation of 2014 forecasts.Overall,we expect a gradual improv
2、ement in globalreal GDP growth from a low point of 2.7%this year to 3.0%next year and 3.4%in2014.Although growth rates in many parts of the world economy are expected toimprove over the next two years,a key theme is US cyclical leadership.Risks toour forecasts remain in the form of the US fiscal cli
3、ff,a re-escalation of theEurozone crisis,a harder landing in China,or an energy price shock.Implications for interest and exchange ratesAs recently reinforced by Fed Chairman Bernanke,the Fed is likely to remainhighly accommodative well into recovery.The implication is that policy rates willremain v
4、ery low over the forecast horizon.High levels of excess capacity and astill-moderate pace of recovery suggests that bond yields,when they begin to movehigher,will do so gradually.The dollar should appreciate modestly,given betterUS fundamentals.Update on de-leveragingPrivate sector de-leveraging in
5、the US is advanced,including in the financial,household,and non-financial corporate sectors.Headwinds of US private sectorde-leveraging are therefore lessening.The same is not true in much of peripheralEurope or the UK,which together with Eurozone structural adjustment suggestscontinued growth restr
6、aint across much of the EU.The next big de-leveragingresides in the US and Japanese public sectors(continental Europe is generally moreadvanced in this dimension).Fiscal adjustment represents both a key risk factor forglobal growth and an enduring source of global demand restraint in the yearsahead.
7、American revival?Lessening private-sector de-leveraging,improved competitiveness,and supply-sideinnovations(for example in energy)suggest the US economy may be poised forrevival ahead of its peer group of advanced economies,but also amid a secularslowing in the emerging complex.One implication is st
8、ronger capital inflows intothe US.This report has been prepared by UBS LimitedANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES BEGIN ON PAGE 16.,31 October H+44-20-7568 4053Andrew CatesE+65-6495 2584Paul DonovanE+44-20-7568 3372Sophie ConstableE+44-20-7568 3105,Global Economic Perspectives 31 October
9、2012Global economic outlookSummary,Each autumn UBS economists review their outlook for the following year andinitiate forecasts for the year thereafter.In this note we present our 2013 globaloutlook,and extend our forecast horizon to 2014.In many respects,the outlook is familiar,perhaps distressingl
10、y so.Over the nexttwo years,the world economy will do well if it can muster trend-like growth.Headwinds of de-leveraging,balance sheet repair and structural adjustment,above all in Europe,are unlikely to lessen much in the coming quarters.Japanremains mired in deflation and dependent on exports.Mean
11、while,a mix ofcyclical,structural and policy impediments is likely to restrain growth inemerging economies below the high rates of the past decade.Even in the US,where growth prospects are arguably their brightest since the financial crisiserupted in 2007,a guarded outlook and policy uncertainty wil
12、l restrain growth tonear its potential rate,insufficient to make a rapid dent in the still-high USunemployment rate.And even that outcome depends crucially on whetherpoliticians in Washington can agree to postpone or otherwise moderate the dateof US fiscal reckoning.Still,there are some encouraging
13、aspects to the outlook.Moderate growth amidstill-large reservoirs of spare capacity suggests little scope for inflation,barringcommodity supply shocks.The avoidance of global recession and subdued unitlabour costs ought to support continued high levels of corporate profitability,particularly in deve
14、loped economies.Moreover,gradual recovery accompaniedby stable inflation expectations ought to allow central banks to maintain currentaccommodative policy stances for longer(and subsequently adjust themgradually),limiting the possibility for monetary policy-induced marketdislocations in the period a
15、head.And technological progress continues tomanifest itself,above all in the US energy and technology sectors.Risks abound,not just to the downside.Among the more significant adverseshocks remains the possibility that politicians in Washington will not be able tofind common ground on matters of taxa
16、tion and spending,sending the US andglobal economy off the much-discussed fiscal cliff.We suspect that commonsense(i.e.,self-interest)will lead to a compromise that turns the cliff into a mereledge.Disruptions to energy supply are a further source of downside to globalgrowth,as would be a sharp re-e
17、scalation of Eurozone tensions.And Chinacould still experience a hard landing,particularly if property and externalweaknesses result in a greater degree of domestic banking stress.To the upside,the evidence suggests that US private sector de-leveraging iswell-advanced.A recovering US housing market,
18、rising bank credit,and falling,We present our 2013 global outlook,and extend our forecast horizon to 2014The world economy will do well if it canmaintain trend-like growthEncouraging aspects to the outlookinclude the limited scope for inflationand subdued cost pressuresDownside risks concern the US
19、fiscalcliff,Eurozone tensions and a harderlanding in ChinaUpside risks concern the possibility ofa more rapid pace of US growth,household sector debt servicing are all elements of that story.To the extent thatpolitical and policy uncertainties,which have restrained business spending in2012,begin to
20、recede,the stage could be set for a more rapid pace of US growth,supported and reinforced by employment,capital expenditure,housing andcredit growth,and underpinned by easy Fed policy and higher asset prices.Coupled with improved international competitiveness and innovations inUBS 2,Global Economic
21、Perspectives 31 October 2012domestic energy production and technological progress,a US revival couldwell become the big surprise of the next two years.In what follows we outline our forecasts and broader assessment of the worldeconomy in the following sections:Forecast overviewRisks to the forecastU
22、pdate on de-leveragingAmerican revival?Forecast overview,After consecutive years of decelerating global GDP growth since 2010,weanticipate that both 2013 and 2014 will register modest improvement relative tothe recent low point for global growth registered in mid-2012.Specifically,global real GDP gr
23、owth this year is expected to come in at just 2.7%,down from3.2%in 2011 and 4.2%in 2010.Next year,however,we forecast a rate of globalreal GDP growth of 3.0%,followed by 3.4%in 2014.Table 1:Real GDP growth rates,Next year we forecast global real GDPgrowth of 3.0%,followed by 3.4%in2014,%y/yUSJapanEu
24、rozoneG7BrazilRussiaIndiaChinaWORLD,2012F2.12.2-0.41.41.53.65.57.52.7,2013F2.31.80.11.64.53.56.57.83.0,2013 Consensus2.11.30.21.54.03.76.98.12.9,F,2014F3.01.80.92.23.64.07.08.03.4,Source:UBS/Consensus economics,To be sure,the average annual rate of forecasted growth over the next two yearsis roughly
25、 in line with the long-term average rate of world GDP growth andmost probably close to its trend rate as well(Chart 1).Above all,that means that,Swathes of excess capacity in globalproduct and labour markets will not berapidly absorbed in the next two years,swathes of excess capacity in global produ
26、ct and labour markets will not berapidly absorbed in the next two years.The old adage rings true:Inflation resultsfrom too much money chasing too few goods.In its current rendition theverdict is likely to be still-low inflation.Despite the printing prowess of centralbanks,excess global capacity is l
27、ikely to act as a restraint on broad-basedincreases in most prices and wages.The intense demands for liquidity from theEuropean banking sector amidst ongoing restructuring and restraint,moreover,seems likely to constrain the inflation implications of the ECBs balance sheetexpansion as well.UBS 3,UBS
28、forecasts,Q478,Q480,Q482,Q484,Q486,Q488,Q490,Q492,Q494,Q496,Q498,Q400,Q402,Q404,Q406,Q408,Q410,Q412,Q414,Q470,Q472,Q474,Q476,Global Economic Perspectives 31 October 2012Table 2:CPI inflation rates,%y/yUSJapanEurozoneG7BrazilRussiaIndiaChinaWORLD,2012F2.10.02.51.85.55.17.52.82.9,2013F1.70.32.11.76.26
29、.86.83.62.9,2013 Consensus2.00.01.91.75.35.97.43.42.9,F,2014F2.52.31.82.36.25.67.04.03.1,Source:UBS/Consensus economicsChart 1:Global GDP growth and long-term average,8.06.04.02.00.0-2.0-4.0,y/y%,Source:UBS estimates,Global GDP growth,Trend,Within the detail,the outlook is one of cyclical divergence
30、.Among advancedeconomies,the US is likely to re-occupy its familiar position as growth leader.Next years forecasted 2.3%calendar year average US GDP growth rate masks,Among advanced economies,the US islikely to re-occupy its familiar positionas growth leader,the underlying improving dynamic of the e
31、conomy.On a Q4 2013-on-Q4 2012basis,we project a faster 2.7%US GDP growth rate.Moreover,as we detailbelow the headwinds of balance sheet repair and deleveraging in the US privatesector are lessening.In 2014 we expect US calendar year average GDP growthto reach 3.0%.Underscoring the sense that the US
32、 economy is poised for thebetter,is the contribution to forecasted GDP growth in the next two years fromprivate sector final demand,both consumer spending and business investment(Chart 2).UBS 4,Q180,Q282,Q384,Q486,Q189,Q291,Q393,Q495,Q198,Q200,Q302,Q404,Q107,Q209,Q311,Q150,Q154,Q158,Q162,Q166,Q170,Q
33、174,Q178,Q182,Q186,Q190,Q194,Q198,Q102,Q106,Q110,Global Economic Perspectives 31 October 2012Chart 2:Contributions to US growth 2009-2014e(in percentage points),2.502.001.501.000.500.00,Contribution to real GDP change,-0.50,2009,2010,2011,2012,2013,2014,-1.00-1.50-2.00-2.50,Personal consumption,Inve
34、stment,Net exports,Government spending,Source:UBS estimates,That story already is unfolding.Over the past six months,the US housingmarket,retail sales and bank lending to the private sector have all perked up.Ifit were not for the restraint in business spending,reflected in relatively weak UScapital
35、 goods expenditures and hiring,US growth would probably alreadyexceed the full year rate we expect for next year.,The US housing market,retail sales andbank lending to the private sector haveall perked up,Chart 3:US debt servicing20.0019.0018.0017.0016.0015.0014.0013.0012.0011.0010.00,Chart 4:US deb
36、t to disposable income140.00120.00100.0080.0060.0040.0020.00,US household debt-service ratioSource:Haver,Federal Reserve,UBS estimates,US financial obligations ratio,US household debt as%of disposable incomeSource:Haver,UBS estimates,Nor are there significant private sector imbalances that might imp
37、ede the USrecovery.The contribution to US growth from inventories has been weak,asbusinesses have kept a close check on production relative to final demandde-,There are no significant private sectorimbalances that might impede the USrecovery,stocking is a small risk,per se.US household sector indebt
38、edness continues tofall relative to disposable income,as does the share of income devoted tomeeting household sector financial obligations(Charts 3-4,above).Lastly,corporate profitability,which jumped from 2009-2011,remains at high levels,helping to keep business borrowing costs low and generating s
39、ufficient cashflows to support capital spending and hiring.Recent weakness in businessspending is not fundamentalinstead,it most probably reflects poor confidencein policy-making.UBS 5,Q1-86,Q4-87,Q3-89,Q2-91,Q1-93,Q4-94,Q3-96,Q2-98,Q1-00,Q4-01,Q3-03,Q2-05,Q1-07,Q4-08,Q3-10,Q2-12,Q1-47,Q1-50,Q1-53,Q
40、1-56,Q1-59,Q1-62,Q1-65,Q1-68,Q1-71,Q1-74,Q1-77,Q1-80,Q1-83,Q1-86,Q1-89,Q1-92,Q1-95,Q1-98,Q1-01,Q1-04,Q1-07,Q1-10,laggards,Global Economic Perspectives 31 October 2012,Chart 5:Contribution of inventories to US GDP growth2.52.01.51.00.50.0-0.5-1.0-1.5,Chart 6:US profit share in GDP14.013.012.011.010.0
41、9.08.07.06.0,Contribution of US inventories to y/y change in US GDP growthSource:Haver,UBS estimates,RecessionSource:Haver,NBER,UBS estimates,US corporate profits as%GDP,As we recently noted,other parts of the world economy also appear at aninflection point,with slowdowns ending,even if more rapid g
42、rowth may not yetbe evident.That appears to be true in China and other parts of Asia,where firstsigns of a bottoming in exports are visible.At the same time,Chinas propertymarket slowdown also appears to be ending,not coincidentally as economy-wide credit growth begins to pick up.In Brazil,too,solid
43、 real income formation,supported by credit growth,is producing a pick-up in consumer spendingweexpect growth in Brazil to move back up to 4.5%next year.Still,recoveries across the world economy are not uniformEurope and Japanremain notable laggards.In Europes case,fiscal retrenchment,structuraladjus
44、tment,and banking sector weakness in many Eurozone countries and theUK are the sources of stagnation,at best,and deep recession,at worst.Whilesome of those headwinds may lessen in the coming two years,they will remainsignificant drags on economic activity in the EU over the forecast horizon,inpart b
45、ecause of the inability or unwillingness of the healthier parts of Europe(read:Germany)to generate offsetting growth impulses.In 2013 we believeEurozone GDP growth will stagnate(0.1%),with moderate pickup projected in2014(0.9%)In Japan,deflation,a strong yen,weak export markets,poor corporateprofita
46、bility and demographic challenges continue to restrain what potential forgrowth exists.Japans growth will be modest in the next two yearsfor each ofthe next two years we forecast Japanese real GDP growth of 1.8%.In 2014,aplanned hike in consumption taxes poses significant downside risks to activity.
47、As a consequence of developed economy divergence,we anticipate a generallystronger US dollar over the forecast horizon.Specifically,our year-end dollar,Other parts of the world economy alsoappear at an inflection pointEurope and Japan remain notableJapans growth will be modest in thenext two yearsWe
48、 anticipate a generally stronger USdollar over the forecast horizon,forecasts versus the euro are 1.20 at the end of 2013 and 1.15 by end 2014.Theprofile is similar for the yen,which is expected to depreciate to USD/JPY 85 atthe end of next year and USD/JPY 90 by end 2014.After considerable realexch
49、ange rate appreciation recent years and against a more subdued growthbackdrop,we do not anticipate significant further appreciation of majoremerging economy currencies against the dollar(Table 3).UBS 6,Global Economic Perspectives 31 October 2012Table 3:FX forecasts,31-Oct-12,Dec-13,Dec-14,EUR/USDUS
50、D/JPYEUR/JPYUSD/RMBUSD/INRUSD/RUBGBP/USDEUR/GBPUSD/CHFEUR/CHFUSD/CADAUD/USDNZD/USD,1.2979.40103.006.2454.1031.501.610.810.931.211.001.040.82,1.2085.00102.006.3550.0031.191.560.771.001.201.031.000.79,1.1590.00103.506.3047.5032.321.440.801.041.201.050.950.78,Source:UBS,Monetary policy settings in deve
