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1、国际民调与舆论塑造,海南大学 毕研韬,引 言,数字看上去富有说服力，“用数字说话”就成了某些新闻人的专业信条。其实不然。有些新闻恰恰毁于数据。数据有很多种，新闻人需要特别提防民调。对某些组织和个人而言，民调只是操纵舆论的一件较为复杂的工具而已。,引 言,有人会说，那些不科学的民调是“伪民调”（pseudo-polls）；不能把民调和“伪民调”混为一谈。可现实是，有多少人能分辨得出民调之真伪？又有多少“伪民调”曾经堂而皇之地进入媒体报道？,Do Polls Form Public Opinion?,An attempt can be made to use polls to influence
2、rather than to reflect public opinion.Polls can be manipulated to give a false picture of public opinion.,民调之真伪,影响民调科学性的因素很多，其中的关键是采用“随机抽样”（以确保调查对象总体中每个部分都有同等被抽中的可能）。因此，由参加者自己决定是否参与意见的自选择（self-selecting）调查，如一般网上调查、街头调查，都不是科学的调查，由此得出的结论不能推及总体。,民调之真伪,美国全国民意调查评议会（NCPP）建议，新闻媒体在报道民意调查前先要回答20个问题，诸如谁做的调查？谁
3、资助了调查？采访了多少人？被访问者是如何挑选的？结论是否基于所有受访者的反馈？反馈率是多少？调查是何时进行的？问了什么问题？这些问题的顺序如何？结论与其他相关调查是否相同？等等。,民调之真伪,网络民调并非严格意义上的民意调查，其娱乐性远大于新闻性。有些新闻报道会使用“科学的民调”等字眼来强调某民调的可信度。但如果此类报道不具体介绍其“科学”根据，相关民调就更值得怀疑。,民调之真伪,专业人士擅于利用民调影响舆论。2009年11月21日，台湾媒体发布了关于彰化市长候选人的民调广告。在民调中敬陪末座的候选人指责领先者为幕后黑手，是“假民调，真骗票”。在高雄，国民党籍议员痛批陈菊运用假民调操弄市长选举
4、。,Polls designed to report,The modern polls are designed to reportthey do not usually pretend to solve problems.They try to record,not to form opinion or solve highly technical problems.They may exercise the same indirect power on policymakers and the rank and file that any published studies exert.,
5、新闻与民调,即使符合NCPP标准的民调也不可随意引用。民调只有置于特定的语境下才有具体意义，所以引用民调时必须说明调查背景。况且，大部分公众尚不具备鉴别民调真伪的能力，较容易被民调误导。新闻媒体引用“伪民调”就等于为其背书，对舆论的负面影响不容低估。,新闻与民调,为此，国际著名的新闻机构对民意调查报道都有严格规定。哥伦比亚广播公司（CBS）的规定除了NCPP的20个问题外，还要求审查统计误差、问题表述，等等。CBS还规定，关于民意调查本身的报道要尽可能多地介绍民调特征和背景。CBS禁止报道和引用“伪民调”（尤其是自选择调查）。,新闻与民调,关于民调报道，美国没有专门的法律规定。希腊、俄罗斯等国
6、有专门的法律约束民意调查及其报道。希腊规定，大选前的民调样本容量不得小于1000；问题及数据必须公开。俄罗斯的规定与NCPP评议标准相仿，但俄罗斯要求媒体必须说明相关调查的统计误差。,民调之效用,美国某网站编辑曾披露，网站推出民调是为提升点击率和忠诚度。他说，网上民调是最方便的互动形式，比跟帖评论、论坛讨论、发布博客都简单。一旦用户参与其中，他就成了社区的一员，这项调查也就成了“我们的民调”。但该编辑强调，此类民调不可用于新闻报道；这只是吸引网民的手段而已。,民调之效用,媒体是否基于新闻价值报道民调，其中涉及专业素养和职业道德问题。“把关人”也会被自己的既有认知和立场所影响。更何况，今天的精英
7、阶层公关作业日趋主动。很多民调都是调查者主动推给新闻媒体的，其主要目的是影响公共认知与政府决策，为特殊阶层谋取更大利益。,民调之效用,美国学者坦承，“媒体都有截然不同的政治立场。”媒体“不党”“不私”的神话已经破灭，可国内至今还有人痴迷不悟。媒体总是试图巧妙地传递与自己的立场、利益、认知相吻合的信息。,民调之效用,在很大程度上，媒体追求的只是媒介寡头的自由。当与媒体立场接近时，受众会不加批判地接受媒体信息，此时媒体对受众的影响很大。这种愉悦的体验会让受众更加依赖自己认可的媒体，受众对媒体的忠诚度得以强化。美国华人学者孙志刚博士对此有系统的研究。,警惕国际民调,某国际机构公布调查说，中国的崛起是
8、最近十年谈论最多的主题，其频率远远超过伊拉克战争、九一一事件、奥巴马当选美国总统、全球经济危机。有西方论者说，某些中国学者认为这是西方人的圈套，实在是疑心太重。,警惕国际民调,笔者对相关机构与调查背景没有研究，对这项调查本身不予置评。但是，我们不能接受这位论者的指责。某西方政府高官曾公开宣称，只要有效，可以使用任何手段。事实的确如此。国际博弈本来就是整体战。这位批评者不是太天真就是很虚伪。,警惕国际民调,笔者并非否定所有民调。事实上，科学的民调有助于公众了解舆论环境，有助于政府提升决策科学性。但同时，政府、媒体和学者有必要也有责任提高公众对民调的鉴别力，提高其对“伪民调”的免疫力。,警惕国际民
9、调,新闻媒体在报道民调时，除了借鉴上述西方经验外，还要仔细研究相关民调的数据和解读。调查机构可能忽略了某些数据的意义，新闻机构或许有必要深入探究。负责任的新闻媒体应该同时介绍不同的解读或不同的民调。,What influence have they?,But the major polling organizations argue that the polls exert an influence on the public in much the same manner that any book,any set of facts,or discussion of public affai
10、rs does.Opinion surveys can,doubtless,help the public by stimulating discussion of current problems.,What influence have they?,The public itselfif we are to judge by a poll on the subjecthas a lot of confidence in opinion sampling.Asked if they think the polls“are a good thing or bad thing in our co
11、untry,”73 percent said,“a good thing,”while 21 percent admitted they didnt know.,What influence have they?,In 1945 the Gallup Poll released results of a survey which showed that a majority of voters favored a“work or fight”bill rather than attempts to get people into war jobs by voluntary methods.Th
12、e division of opinion was reported as follows:Favor keeping voluntary methods 39%Favor drafting people 53%Uncertain 8%,What influence have they?,This subject was being widely discussed and debated at the time and the results of the poll intensified the discussion.,What influence have they?,Was it go
13、od or bad that this evidence was made public?Could the figures influence public opinion?,What influence have they?,If so,was it a bad influence?Should influences on public opinion be restricted to radio talks,newspaper and not include the results of public opinion surveys?Can you support the argumen
14、t that it is against public interest to know what a cross section of the population says it-believes about an urgent public question?,Do they help load the andwagon?,Whether the public is actually swayed by the results of opinion polls is hard to say.,Do they help load the bandwagon?,One test is pro
15、vided by the election polls.If opinion surveys exert an important influence on the public,then the division of opinion during an election campaign should be in the same direction as the polling results.Can we find any evidence that there is such a trend?,What do studies reveal?,Studies in local area
16、s have indicated,however,that the bandwagon appeal actually does operate during a political campaign,although a real effect on the outcome of elections has not been proved.,What do studies reveal?,Is it dangerous for the public to follow the polls as a measure of public opinion?No such danger has be
17、en proved.On the contrary,disinterested opinion leaders have not hesitated to study data resulting from opinion surveys and to use them freely in public discussions.,What do studies reveal?,Results of opinion surveys are included in studies such as the Foreign Policy Reports,not as conclusive eviden
18、ce,but as contributions to an understanding of public attitudes.,Important Questions,To what extent should policymakers rely on polling results to guide them in voting on legislation?Is it in the public interest to follow confidently the peoples view of the issues?Is it important to correct the prevailing opinion on popular questions?,Important Questions,In what manner,in view of polling results,can leaders best exert leadership?Is the public always right?Is the minority important?Have polls a place in government?,请参阅：毕研韬.国外对民调的一般要求及争议.青年记者，2010年1月上，第27页,
