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1、6,2013,1,2013,1,4,QE,12,QE4,QECRB,2,1,12,65 3,45,4,702013Wind1 QE234BDIA,2013,1,1,1,331-3331-3,CRB,PVC,PVC,WindBDI,2,1,CRB,50%15%,Wind Datastream,QE,QE4,PVC,12,2013,BDI,A,6,2013,1,QE,.1.1.2.3.4,.5.6.6.7.8.9.10.10.11.12.12.13.14.14.15.16.17.17.18.19.19.20.21.21.22,4,6,7,10,12,13,17,19,20,21,22,23,24,
2、25,26,27,28,29,31,32,33,34,35,6,2013,1,12,QE4QE4,CRB,.1.1,3,12,CRB,.1,.2,5,10,.2,.2.3,8911141516,WTIPVCPVC,27PVC,PMI,.3.3.4.5.5.5.6.6.6.7,18,-,.7,.8.8.9.9.10.10.10.11.11.11.12,30,CRU,.12.12.13.13.13.14,38,41,42,44,45,46,47,48,49,53,54,1,7,9,13,6,2013,1,363739404350,ICSGLMELMEBDI,2ETF,.14.14.15.15.15
3、.16.16.16.17.17.17.18.18.18.19,5152,BCTICCFI,BDTI,.19.19,.20.20.4,23456,20132013201320132013,111112012/13,.5.9.11.13.16.17,810,/,/,.17.18.18,1112,20132013,11,.18.20,.21,14,2012,12,.21,6,2013,1,QEQE4,1 QE4,CRB,12,13QE4,400,QE3,450,Bloomberg2 QE4Bloomberg,12,QE4QE4,QE4CRB,3 12,CRBBloomberg,1,4,6,2013,
4、1,11,2,6000,2013,1,1,Bloomberg,40,2013,45,5,10,%,2013,35%,50040%1100,Bloomberg640251%Bloomberg,2,6,2013,1,712Bloomberg,8,27,11,Bloomberg,12,27,9,PMI,12,PMI,2012Bloomberg,3,6,2013,1QE,10,1007550,1,2013,250,3-145%48%,3,1-3,1,1,12,5015,1,5015,65,684275250,654570245,45,3,500,50%,49%,Bloomberg,7049%4,6,2
5、013,1,11,WTI,/,(EIA)12,1030002011110,2012,30,2013,14,IEA 12,7530,2012,12,/,95,11,/,2012,12,14,3.716452.193221.1697,14.9%,9615.9%,221109,0.4%,13,/,12,EIA,2 201333,11,1-35,2009/10,2010/01,2010/04,2010/07,2010/10,2011/01,2011/04,2011/07,2011/10,2012/01,2012/04,2012/07,2012/10,10,-1,2-,1121,-3,-,1121,-6
6、,-,1121,-9,11-2,-11,2-,1221,-3,-,1221,-6,-,1221,-9,12-2,-11,2-,21,10,-1,2-,2,111,-3,-2,111,-6,-2,111,-9,-,1121,-1,2-,2,121,-3,-2,121,-6,-2,121,-9,-,1221,-1,2-,21,PVC,6,2013,1,14,PVC,2012,11,100%,PVC,11,1204,109,3%,-3%,8,PVC,50%0%,2013,PVC,PVC,8%-10%,2012PVC-50%,15,PVC,12,PVC,50,/,/,9800,PVC-,PVC,400
7、0,PVC,PVC,820066005000,30002000,PVC,34001800200,10000,50%,PVC,PVC,PVCPVC,161400,PVC,FAS,/,CFR,120010008006006,/,-,17,6,2013,1,/,44505-10,4153/42013,3,31110,2014,10%,16702015,2014,18,mmbtu,2.24112%,90%-95%,Wind Datastream7,6,2013,1,1920,Wind Datastream,/,/,/,2013400-500,2013,Wind Datastream8,11-2-21,
8、11-4-21,11-6-21,11-8-21,12-2-21,12-4-21,12-6-21,10-12-21,11-10-21,11-12-21,12-8-21,12-10-21,12-12-21,1,3,21224000300020001000,6,2013,1,/,-,20700-80011.24MMA,19,87,2060202010/10-1544.548.25%,60,1000,/,12,25,54.96%,55.35%,1.83%,71.12%,62.57%,6.06%1.07,3 20133,1,78.54%8.05%,43.14%-2.09%,54.53%3.23%,14.
9、04%,52.36%,1-3,59.44%,4.63%,48,133,PVC,31-333,11,1-39,23,12,6,2013,1,2013,2013,2000,7000,200020138000,1,EIA2%,1,50002013,2013,BP,2012,2012,24,%,1000,8.3,8.44000,Wind Datastream,11,2000,2013,25,Wind Datastream,/,10,2011/1/9,2011/2/20,2011/3/20,2011/4/20,2011/5/18,2011/6/20,2011/7/20,2011/8/31,2011/9/
10、30,2011/10/,2011/11/,2011/12/,2012/2/10,2012/3/20,2012/4/20,2012/5/20,2012/6/20,2012/7/20,2012/8/20,2012/9/20,2012/10/,2012/11/,2009,2009,2009,2009,2009,2009,2010,2010,2010,2010,2010,2010,2011,2011,2011,2011,2011,2011,2012,2012,2012,2012,2012,2012,1,3,5,7,9,11,1,3,5,7,9,11,1,3,5,7,9,11,1,3,5,7,9,11,
11、(,(,26,6,2013,1,3,5003,0002,500,20124.9%2.1%,1-11,11,36.63.3,2,000,2012,1-11,2.5,1,500,46.1%,11,2898,1,000500,2012,12,0-5001-11,27,7,11,10000900080007000,353025,10,4%12937531,22,12,8607,6000500040003000200010000SXCOAL28SXCOAL4 20131331,2012/12/21)/2012/10/25),20151050,2013,1-311,6,2013,1,29,%,2012,1
12、1,62,13.88,1.1%,11,1.22,5.1%11,4.8%,10,76.5%8502.7%28022.3,76.1%2.3%6702.4%6.2%,1.65602013,2%2012,2.1%,2011,6.2%,World Steel Association,2013,3.2%,30 CRU,2012,27,7.5%3.2%,1.304,5.6%,20131.351,11.9%,31,Wind,/,12.6%,2.4%,27,4.7%,2013,Platts12,62013,2013,1,32,2012,11,5,747,/,13.7%1-112.9%7.4,2013,6.6,2
13、013,1,900,9.19,33,%,2012,12,14,1,172,34,Mysteel,1,109,30-35,7,587,10,10-15,5 201333,11,1-313,2,6,5,4,6,2013,1,35,/,/,11,450.00400.00,COMEX,2,000.001,800.001,600.00,479-10.7GDP,5048.12.7%,123.1%,-3GDP,350.00300.00250.00200.00,1,400.001,200.001,000.00800.00600.00,2.8%,2.7%,150.00100.00Jan-08,Jan-09,Ja
14、n-10,Jan-11,Jan-12,400.00200.000.00,11,1.4%1.1%(,0.1%1.5%1.5%),36,Bloomberg2,3.8%,1.0%,11,/,Comex,%,11,0.9%,1.5%,0.3%,2,000.00,2012,12,20,2013,1,800.00,1,600.001,400.001,200.001,000.00,3,(GDP)2013,6.3%,4.5%,800.00,600.00,2,400.00200.000.00,CEIC,10,)1.8,10,101,(5,0-0.1%,5,37,ETF,ETF1,600.001,400.001,
15、200.001,000.00800.00600.00400.00200.000.00Bloomberg14,Dec-06,Apr-07,Aug-07,Dec-07,Apr-08,Aug-08,Dec-08,Apr-09,Aug-09,Dec-09,Apr-10,Aug-10,Dec-10,Apr-11,Aug-11,Dec-11,Apr-12,Aug-12,/,6,2013,1,38,/,/,QE4,LME3,80,000.0070,000.0060,000.0050,000.0040,000.0030,000.0020,000.00,12,000.0010,000.008,000.006,0
16、00.004,000.00,10,000.000.00,2,000.000.00,ICSG,5.4%,2012,1-8,4%,39,BloombergICSG,1-8,21%,42.7%,250.00200.00150.00100.0050.000.00-50.00,1,695.8,WBMS)2012 1-10125,000 2011244,000 1-102011 1,622.5 1-10981,000 728.543%,-100.00,10,173.1,162.5,-150.00,-200.00,12,6,12,25,LME,12,6,Bloomberg,55875,40 LME250,0
17、00.00200,000.00,30,2012,201312,25,LMELME20.5,150,000.00100,000.0050,000.000.00Bloomberg15,Mar-07,Jul-07,Nov-07,Mar-08,Jul-08,Nov-08,Mar-09,Jul-09,Nov-09,Mar-10,Jul-10,Nov-10,Mar-11,Jul-11,Nov-11,Mar-12,Jul-12,Nov-12,6,2013,1,41,/,/,25,000,LME3,3,500,1285.72%,2413.7,20,00015,000,3,0002,5002,000,10,00
18、05,000042,Bloomberg,1,5001,0005000,70%,11,1,500.001,000.00500.000.00-500.00-1,000.00Bloomberg43LME,3.16 2013331-333,12PMI111,17-21,1-3Bloomberg3,3,1,1-316,6,2013,1,44,/,7,2012/13,2011/12,2012/13,201211239.22880.49696.0656.00132.08197.89253.66875.40696.12,201212239.63881.75696.4356.00131.04195.77256.
19、18877.77698.44,201211267.60839.70651.4360.02117.99174.18261.03853.79675.14,201212267.72849.09655.1159.93117.61176.95261.25862.52673.93,Wind Datastream,45,/,8,/,2002200320042005200620072008200920102011,167.62131.9151.22147.69128.18122.66166.66202.5197.77195.77,27.87%22.40%24.79%23.65%20.84%19.87%25.9
20、8%31.15%30.21%28.03%,122.43103.16131.28125.11108.74129.86149.07144.11127.06131.04,19.52%15.98%19.16%17.77%14.96%16.82%19.06%17.51%14.96%14.93%,40.7537.5948.4952.7962.6952.9642.5759.9969.9356,21.37%19.78%23.64%24.52%27.80%23.05%19.23%25.20%27.91%20.72%,Wind Datastream,2012E,176.95,26.26%,117.61,13.64
21、%,59.93,21.15%,46,Wind Datastream,/,17,3,6,2013,1,47,/,9,20022003200420052006200720082009201020112012E,183171176183195201201188187196210,128125133139146154152155164164172,165150145143149155162161161158139,105104101102103106104101108122117,273245233227223224223230219209208,185189187185184184183182180
22、178177,Wind Datastream,10,/,48,/,%,20022003200420052006200720082009201020112012E,4337323133303221152022,5844443945475659492918,4427242120212125211717,Wind Datastream,49,/,Wind Datastream,11,201331-333,111,1-318,BDI50 BDI,6,2013,1,2,5002,0001,500,BDI,25%,7300,1,000500,700,12,BDI,11,VLCC,TCE,Bloomberg
23、51 BCTIBDTI,1080%,189%,MR,TCE,1,000900,BCTI,BDTI,2013,12,800700,600,1,500521,4001,3001,2001,1001,000900800700,BloombergCCFI,2,3002,1001,9001,7001,5001,3001,100900700,23.,380/180,Bloomberg19,531,9001,7001,5001,3001,10090070050054,Wind,6,2013-,1,-,/,1,6001,4001,2001,0008006004002000,Wind,-,-,12,201333
24、,11,1-320,13,33,1,6,2013QE41 QE234CRB,1,PVC,QE,BDI,1-3PVC3,31-3,1,14,2012,12,%,CRB,WTI,BJ,COMEX,CBOT,CBOT,-0.5-0.5,-3.6-1.5,4.3-7.1,0.74.1,8.2-15.6,-3.17.1,0.44.4,0.42.6,-2.914.9,-10.519.2,-36.3-59.8,Bloomberg5500,-3.24.6,0.93.1,-0.7-5.8,-0.915.2,7.16.2,-1.6-21.9,1.8-4.2,Bloomberg Wind21,6,2013A,1,1
25、,2013,2013,2,2013,PE13,3,2013Q1122013st201320131-3,ST,2013,2013,22,6,20131-1,1,3,CRB,1-3,3,100100,0-100,5050%50%,0-49100%0%,215%-15%-+15%-15%23,6,2013,1,0755-S1010510120038010-S1010510120048021-S1010512050001010-S1010511110001021-S1010511080004010-S1010512080002,010-S1010510120004010-S10105111200010
26、10-S1010510120044010-S1010512050002010-S1010512090005010-S1010512080004,010-S1010510120011010-S10105101200450755-23835412li_S1010512040001010-S1010512030003021-68761893songxq S1010511090001010-S1010512080007,021-24,-,Analyst CertificationiiiThe analysts primarily responsible for the preparation of a
27、ll or part of the research report contained herein hereby certify that:(i)theviews expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of each such analyst about the subject securities and issuers;and(ii)nows expressed in this researchreport.,/,(,),(1),(2)/20121,300,20%,6,6,30030
28、0,5%-10%,20%5%,2,300,6300,300300300300,10%10%-10%10%10%,48,1568,8,1,100125,22,200122,518048,26,Foreign Broker-Dealer Disclosures for Distributing to the U.S.Securities RegulatoryCommission.Securities Business License Number:Z20374000).This report is being distributed in the United States by CITIC Securities pursuant to Rule,15a-letters thereunder.,e 15a-6 and the SEC no-actionZ20374000,1934,15a-6(a)(2),15a-6,
