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1、1,Global oil and gas,transactions review 2011,2011 Europe,Middle East,India and Africa,tax policy outlook,Welcome to Ernst&Youngs,annual review of global oil and gas,we look back at some of the main,trends in oil and gas merger and,acquisition activity over 2011,transactions in the sector in 2012.,W
2、e analyze the diverse dynamics,in the upstream,downstream and,wouldbe acquirors.These trends are likely to continue in 2012.,the regional trends that underlie,this macro picture.,announced,an increase of more than 5%on the 1,258 deals,reported last year.With an average of more than three transaction
3、s,every day,oil and gas has continued to be one of the most active,global sectors for M&A.Only the downstream segment of the,have a significant impact on capital intensive sectors such as,oil and gas.We anticipate that capital constraints among the,The year 2011 promised more than it delivered.Again
4、st an,this population had declined to 71.The largest oil and gas,promises less but could likely deliver more.,1,Introduction,The upstream segment remained the most active,representing72%of total deal volumes.North America,accounting for562 upstream deals,or 59%,remained the most active market,althou
5、gh the strongest growing regions were Europe and the CIS.With US$66b targeted on shalerelated transactions,transaction activity.In this report,unconventional is rapidly emerging as the new conventional.China,is the largest shale gas resource holder in the world,with 19%ofglobal resources.If the pote
6、ntial in this asset base can be unlocked,this could transform the oil and gas landscape for years to come.Transactions activity in the downstream segment declined modestlyduring 2011,although overall values were comparable to 2010,and consider the outlook for levels.Ownership change in refining and
7、retail in mature markets,continued,stemming from ongoing portfolio rebalance and capitalallocation review.With refined product demand declining in Europeand North America,rationalization is expected to remain on theagenda in 2012.Storage facilities,offering global connectivity andtrading potential,h
8、ave seen the greatest level of demand from,oilfield services sectors,as well as,Oilfield services companies,like their customer base,are globalizingand consolidating.Many of the larger players are wellcapitalizedand opportunistic,and financial players also remain active.As aresult,the segment saw an
9、 increase in deal activity in 2011 andthere is a positive outlook for 2012,underpinned by those seeking,In 2011,more than 1,322 oil and gas transactions were new geographies,new customers or new technologies.,The oil and gas sector is critical to the global economy.By the sametoken,the oil and gas s
10、ector cannot exist perpetually insulated fromwider political and economic turmoil.These dynamics are drivingconsiderable volatility in the capital markets,and this is likely toindustry saw a decline in transaction volumes in 2011,with theoilfield services segment turning in a very healthy 64%increas
11、e.,The aggregate value of oil and gas transactions totalled US$317b.independent sector,combined with wellcapitalized largecaps andThe 2011 deal value was about 7%below last years US$341b,sovereignsponsored organizations,will underpin a robust level oflargely as a result of fewer megadeals.In 2010,th
12、ere were transaction activity in 2012.,76 oil and gas transactions valued in excess of US$1b;in 2011,uncertain economic and capital markets background,2012transaction of 2011,Kinder Morgans US$38b acquisition ofEl Paso,was broadly comparable to last years largest deal,Petrobrass US$42.5b equity tran
13、saction.,Source:IHS Herold Inc(unless otherwise stated).,Global oil and gas transactions review 2011,2,Contents,1.2.3.4.,UpstreamDownstream/midstreamOilfield servicesRegional roundup Africa Australia Canada CIS Europe Far East India United StatesGlobal oil and gas transactions review 2011,0309131719
14、20212223242526,Numberofdeals,Announcedvalue(US$billion),3,Upstream,Last year was marked by global turbulence,with political change,economic upheavaland natural disaster all playing a major part.Clarity has been hard to come by,yet it isclear that security of energy supply andreliance on the oil and
15、gas sector areundiminished.This is reflected in oil pricesthat have remained robust despite anuncertain economic outlook and anupstream M&A market that,although lowerthan in recent years,has averagedapproximately two to three transactionsevery day in 2011.Figure 1.Upstream deal value and volumes,A m
16、ore worrying trend,however,canbe seen on a quarterly basis,where dealvolumes declined in the second half of2011.This reflects growing economicuncertainty during the year,combined withtightening capital markets.Access to debtand equity funding,particularly for theindependent sector,is now extremelych
17、allenging.Ironically,this situation is likelyto result in an increase in transactionactivity in 2012 as the largely wellcapitalized majors and national oilcompanies(NOCs)exploit their balancesheet advantage.,300250200,200,248,23822267.1,250,91.7222,25363,251,283,203,220,10090807060,15010050,13839.4,
18、32.3,24.9,43.9,45.6,39.4,29.5,43.7,42.2,5040302010,0,1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11Number of dealsTotal value,0,Source:IHS Herold IncGlobal oil and gas transactions review 2011,Dealvalue(US$million),4,Activity levels declinedthroughout the yearThe year 2011 began with tr
19、ansactionactivity continuing the encouraging paceseen at the end of 2010.This momentumdid not continue,however,and as a result,total transaction activity was comparable to2010,with a total of 957 transactionsannounced versus 947 in 2010.The 36%decline in reported total transaction valuewas far more
20、substantial,driven by theabsence of a megadeal,such as last yearsFigure 2.10 largest upstream deals in 2011120,000100,00080,00060,00040,00020,000,US$42.5b asset acquisition by Petrobrasand ExxonMobils US$40b acquisition ofXTO in 2009.Overall,2011 has seen morecautious transactions with much fewer la
21、rgedeals.There were 38 upstream dealsgreater than US$1b in value compared to55 in 2010.This is highlighted in thefollowing chart,which compares the valueof the top 10 upstream transactions in eachof the previous three years.,0,2009,2010,2011,Source:IHS Herold IncGlobal oil and gas transactions revie
22、w 2011,Numberoftransactions,Dealvalue(US$billion),Numberoftransactions,Dealvalue(US$billion),168,199,71.5,52 61,108,41,12.7,4.5,5,Asset deals continued to dominate the upstream transactionslandscape,accounting for 79%of deal volume.However,theydeclined in absolute volume and announced values.The num
23、ber ofannounced asset transactions slipped some 3%,to 758,while totalvalue dropped off 50%,to US$86b though as noted previously,the$42.5b Petrobras transaction weighs heavily in last years total.Corporate deal activity increased by 18%over 2010 deal numbers.Reported corporate deal values were down s
24、lightly,$69b in 2011versus$71b in 2010.Figure 3.Number of upstream deals by type1,2001,000800214,North America remains the most active market,but Europe and CIS exhibit strongest growthOn a regional basis,North America continued to lead transactionactivity with almost 60%of announced transactions,co
25、mparable tothe prior years 61%.The North American bias is echoed intransaction values,with 58%of announced deal value being in theUS and Canada.Although remaining second to the US intransaction numbers,Canadian deal activity was down more than30%on 2010,with 124 announced deals versus 186 for the pr
26、ioryear;and with fewer topend deals,total value was down 65%.The decline in transaction activity was widespread,with only theUS,Europe,the CIS,Africa and India witnessing an increase intransaction volume on 2010 data.European transaction activitywas up 42%,with over half of the 108 transactions invo
27、lving assetsin the North Sea evidence of the resurging interest in the region.,600400200,610,779,758,Figure 5.Number of upstream deals by region500450,432,0,2009,2010,2011,400350,390,Source:IHS Herold Inc,Assets,Corporate,300250200,186,Figure 4.Total upstream deal value by type300.0250.0200.0,150100
28、50 36 380Africa AsiaSource:IHS Herold Inc,1247658 47Australia Canada Europe2010,55CIS2011,64 5827 14United South MiddleStates America East,17 20Other,150.0,100.0,110.2,170.1,68.9,Figure 6.Total upstream deal value by region,50.00.0,53.42009,2010,85.92011,90.080.070.0,77.276.066.4,Source:IHS Herold I
29、nc,Assets,Corporate,60.050.040.030.0,37.3,20.010.0 6.8 6.4 9.310.8 9.7 6.17.40.0Africa Asia Australia Canada Europe,2010,17.6 16.9CIS2011,12.20.93.0United South MiddleStates America East,10.34.9Other,Source:IHS Herold IncGlobal oil and gas transactions review 2011,6,An unconventional eraThe booming
30、unconventional sector has drawn headlines aroundthe world.Shale gas now accounts for about 30%of US gasproduction,and it has been estimated that there are sufficientrecoverable reserves to meet gas demands for 100 years.As aresult,the US gas market has had a staggering shift in outlook fromnet gas i
31、mporter to net gas exporter.The year 2011 continuedwhere 2010 left off,with a wave of large transactions,as largeindependents,NOCs and private equity firms look to snap upopportunities so much so that the US$66b spent on shalerelatedtransactions in the year accounted for just under half of the value
32、 ofall announced upstream transactions globally.Shale gas dominated the larger transactions,claiming the largestreported deal of the year BHP Billitons acquisition of PetrohawkEnergy for US$15b as well as four other top 10 transactions byvalue.BHP Billitons acquisition further cements its interest i
33、n thespace after its US$4.8b acquisition of Chesapeake Energys Fayetteshale assets earlier in the year.Marathon Oils acquisition of HilcorpResources Eagle Ford shale properties for US$3.5b and NobleEnergys purchase of 50%of Consol Energys undevelopedMarcellus shale acreage for US$3.1b are further ev
34、idence of thescale of investment in the this prospective resource base.Amid itsother acquisitions,Statoil announced a US$4.8b major tight oil/shale oil acquisition of Brigham Energy.Canadian shale prospectshave also attracted significant interest.Sinopecs US$2.9bacquisition of Daylight Energy,for ex
35、ample,provides access toDuvernay and Cardium shale acreage.Environmental and political turbulence surrounds this NorthAmerican game changer,which has seen New York State imposea moratorium on fracking activity and shale development concernsleveraged as a political tool.On the other side of the Atlan
36、tic,the potential of European shale remains to be proven,butenvironmental concerns are also in play,with France becoming thefirst country to impose a ban on hydraulic fracturing of shale gasand oil projects.Development in Poland,reportedly Europes largestshale resource holder,remains some way behind
37、 the US;and withthe largest of the five recorded transactions in Polish shales beingSan Leon Energys acquisition of Realm Energy for US$91m,M&Aactivity still lacks a growing value outlook.,Canadas tar sands activity has also intensified,as the strong oilprice has facilitated an increase in the capit
38、alintensivedevelopment projects.While there has been significant investmentin transaction activity in the shales,tar sand investment has beenprincipally at the project level and transaction activity has lessenedsomewhat.CNOOCs US$2.1b acquisition of OPTI Canada is thelargest transaction in the secto
39、r and provides the Chinese producerwith further access to tar sand reserves.CNOOC separatelyinvested US$1.3b in US oil shales,which,along with KNOCsacquisitions of Eagle Ford shale acreage and various conventionalassets in the US,is evidence of the ongoing international resourceand knowledgetargetin
40、g of Asian NOCs.China is the worlds largest shale gas resource holder accordingto the US Energy Information Administrator(with 19%of globalresources).Significantly,it held its first shale gas licensing roundthis year.With Chinese NOCs heavily invested in North Americanunconventionals,they are strate
41、gically positioned to replicateoperations back on home ground.This could transform the worldoil and gas landscape in years to come.North Sea revival despite unresolved challengesThe North Sea has continued its recent revival,despite unwelcomechanges in the UKs tax regime earlier in the year and cont
42、inuingconcerns over decommissioning liabilities.Apaches US$1.8bacquisition of Exxon Mobils North Sea asset portfolio,CentricasUS$1.5b acquisition of various assets from Statoil,and TotalsUS$802m preemption on GDF Suezs sale of a 10.4%interest inthe Elgin and Franklin fields are evidence of the ongoi
43、ngattractiveness of the region.A number of recent success stories,including the sizeable Aldous/Avaldsnes discovery in Norway,havedriven positive momentum in the region,and BPs commitment toits US$6.9b development west of Shetland is further evidence ofthe investment returning to the region.As certa
44、in basins in the North Sea mature,ownership of assets islikely to continue to transition from majors to the independent sector.A key challenge in keeping the momentum of M&A activity in thisregard is the growing issue of abandonment liabilities,wheresignificant potential exposures are at stake in a
45、landscape of inherentfiscal uncertainty,particularly in the UK.This area has been a focusof discussions between industry and government,supported byErnst&Young,and we hope for positive developments in 2012.,Global oil and gas transactions review 2011,Numberoftransactions,Announcedvalue(US$billion),2
46、011,2011,7,NOCs continue to acquire,but annual spenddecreases,Figure 7.Oil and gas transaction activity by NOCs:deal volume140,IOCs continue to fuel transaction activity as the buying populationfor over 90%of announced upstream transactions,with the supermajors alone involved in almost US$20b of dis
47、closed transactionspend.Conversely,NOCs were buyers for only 6%of transactions,with 43 announced upstream transactions in 2011.However,backed by strong cash reserves,their appetite for larger targetssaw NOCs with a greater proportion of upstream spend,responsiblefor over 18%of the announced deal val
48、ue.NOC upstream spendingwas down sharply in 2011 versus 2010 data,distorted by thesignificant internal investments made by Petrobras in 2010.Investments outside the home country account for the vast majorityof NOC transactions,representing more than 65%of NOC dealvolume and more that 76%of total rep
49、orted deal value in 2011.,1201008060402002007 2008 2009Internal upstreamExternal upstreamSource:IHS Herold Inc,2010Internal otherExternal other,Recent years have witnessed the Chinese NOCs internationalpursuit of production and reserve acquisition opportunities to meetaggressive targets,and 2011 saw
50、 similar dynamics with ChineseNOCs responsible for 50%of NOC acquisition spend in 2011.Successful targets covered a broad range,with LNG interests inAustralia,deepwater assets offshore from Brazil,producing shaleassets in North America,and exploration acreage in East Africaindicative of the wide rem
