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1、January 7,2013Asia:TechnologyEquity Research2013 CES:Tablets and new flat panel TV technologies the focusHoliday sell-through for LCD TV unexciting,Our industry checks indicate that North American LCD TV holiday demandwas lackluster and may have just met the low end of expectations,with lowsingle-di
2、git yoy growth.We believe that set makers comments and industrydatapoints at the upcoming 2013 International Consumer Electronics Show(CES)will corroborate our checks.Moreover,this raises the possibility thatLCD TV inventory levels may not be lean and that a normal seasonal panel,RELATED RESEARCHSou
3、th Korea:Technology:AM OLED TV race begins but nosignificant volume until 2015 3 January 2013Asahi Glass(5201.T):Nikkei call for FY12/12 profit shortfallnegative;still cautious on LCD 17 December 2012Nitto Denko(6988.T):Sales running ahead;raising ourestimates CL-Buy 12 December 2012,shipment correc
4、tion(10%-15%qoq decline)could be possible in 1Q13.Asia:Technolog:Revisiting AM OLED forecasts;still upbeaton long term growth outlook 25 July 2012We expect aggressive tablet volume targetsMeanwhile,smartphones and tablets did relatively well during the holidayperiod.We expect this to continue in 201
5、3 and tablet shipments to reach167.8mn units,up 41.3%yoy,in 2013.However,early datapoints indicateindustry expectations are rising and set makers shipment targets followingsuit,implying upside risk to our 2013 tablet shipment assumption.Ultra high definition or AM OLED?We expect TV set makers to sho
6、wcase two new flat panel technologies atCES:ultra high definition(UHD)TVs and AM OLED TVs.While most majorTV set makers will have UHD LCD TVs,we believe that only SamsungElectronics(SEC)and LG Electronics(LGE)may showcase 55-inch AMOLED TVs.We believe that SEC and LGE may position UHD LCD TVs as the
7、super premium TV of today and AM OLED as the premium TV of tomorrow.Smart TV not a replacement cycle catalyst due to lack of killer appSmart TV has historically been a hot topic at CES,but without a meaningfulkiller application,we do not expect them to be a replacement cycle catalyst.As such,we woul
8、d caution against getting caught up in the Smart TV hype.Buy Nitto Denko(on CL),Samsung Electronics,and Samsung SDIBetter-than-expected tablet demand could be positive for Nitto Denko andSamsung SDI on better component demand.Meanwhile,we believe SECwill use CES to demonstrate its product/technology
9、 leadership in consumerelectronics.Maintain Buy on Nitto Denko,SEC,and SDI.In our view,1Q13seasonal TFT-LCD panel correction could result in weaker short-term sharesentiment for panel makers(LG Display)and glass companies(AsahiGlass)as expectations were previously for a milder correction.,Michael Ba
10、ng+82(2)3788-1655 Goldman Sachs(Asia)L.L.C.,Seoul BranchMarcus Shin+82(2)3788-1154 Goldman Sachs(Asia)L.L.C.,Seoul BranchTakashi Watanabe+81(3)6437-9894 Goldman Sachs Japan Co.,Ltd.Daiki Takayama+81(3)6437-9870 Goldman Sachs Japan Co.,Ltd.The Goldman Sachs Group,Inc.,Goldman Sachs does and seeks to
11、do business withcompanies covered in its research reports.As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investorsshould consider this report as only a single factor in makingtheir investment decision.For Reg AC cer
12、tification and otherimportant disclosures,see the Disclosure Appendix,or go Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analystswith FINRA in the U.S.Global Investment Research,2,January 7,2013,Asia:Technology,Tablets and TVs the main themes for Asia hardware at C
13、ESThe 2013 International Consumer Electronics Show(CES)will be held from January 8-11.From a hardware perspective,we believe that tablets and flat panel TVs may provide themost excitement.For tablets,we expect that companies may provide upbeat targets for2013 shipments,which could be positive for ta
14、blet component makers such as Nitto Denko(ITO film for touchscreen)and Samsung SDI(battery).We maintain our Buy ratings onNitto Denko and Samsung SDI.From the TV side,we believe most attention may be given to new flat panel displaytechnologies such as ultra high definition(UHD)LCD TVs and AM OLED TV
15、s.We expectSamsung Electronics(SEC)and LG Electronics(LGE)to be the most visible in promotingthe new display technologies.Based on historical trends,LGE share sentiment hasbenefited if the company shows a strong product portfolio.Meanwhile,CES has not been atraditional share sentiment catalyst for S
16、EC given the companys diversified earningsstructure,but we expect the company to demonstrate its consumer electronics leadershipat the trade show.We maintain our Buy rating on SEC.Meanwhile,our industry checksindicate that holiday TV sell-through may just have reached companies expectations atbest a
17、nd some brands may not have met targets.In our view,this would point to a normalseasonal correction in 1Q13,which could weigh on short-term share sentiment for panelmakers and glass makers such as LG Display and Asahi Glass.Exhibit 1:Buy Nitto Denko(on Conviction List),Samsung Electronics,Samsung SD
18、IStock valuation table,Current,P/E(X),P/B(X),ROE(%),EV/EBITDA(X),Korea,Ticker,Rating,price 2012E 2013E 2012E 2013E 2012E 2013E 2012E 2013E,Samsung ElectronicsSamsung SDI,005930.KS006400.KS,Buy 1,525,000Buy 157,000,10.94.9,8.114.4,2.21.0,1.70.9,22%22%,24%7%,5.63.4,4.18.5,LG ElectronicsLG Display,0665
19、70.KS034220.KS,NeutralNeutral,78,70030,850,17.737.4,9.411.0,1.11.1,1.01.0,6%3%,11%9%,6.72.6,5.91.9,Taiwan,AU OptronicsCMI,2409.TW3481.TW,NeutralNeutral,NT$13.75NT$16.80,NANA,NANA,0.80.8,0.90.9,-26%-16%,-14%-10%,7.26.0,5.75.6,Japan,Nitto DenkoNEGAGC,6988.T5214.T5201.T,Buy*NeutralNeutral,4,500499636,2
20、4.112.815.9,14.637.916.9,1.70.51.0,1.60.50.9,7%4%6%,11%1%6%,4.53.65.4,5.03.05.4,Panasonic,6752.T,Neutral,537,NA,NA,0.6,1.1,-34%-51%,8.2,4.4,FunaiSony,6839.OS6758.T,NeutralSell,1,148968,NANA,NANA,0.30.5,0.40.5,-4%-20%,-5%0%,NA10.0,NA4.1,Sharp,6753.T,Sell,295,NA,NA,0.5,2.3,-46%-125%,8.3,58.4,Note:*den
21、otes stock is on our regional Conviction List.Prices are as of 4 January,2013.Source:Datastream,Goldman Sachs Research estimates.No positive surprises from holiday sales,implying another slow year for LCD TVWe do not expect any positive sell-through surprises from the North America holiday salesseas
22、on at the 2013 International Consumer Electronics Show(CES).Our industry checks inAsia indicate that consumer electronics demand was just in line with companiesexpectations at best.Our industry checks also indicate that LCD TV unit sales may onlyhave reached low single-digit yoy growth and that some
23、 brands were not able to meettargets despite aggressive promotional activity.This points to the possibility that some setmakers may have more-than-desired inventory exiting 4Q12,which could lead to a periodof inventory digestion and a seasonal correction for LCD TV set and panel makers in 1Q13,in ou
24、r view.We believe this represents short-term downside risk to share sentiment forpanel makers such as LG Display(LGD)and glass makers such as Asahi Glass.Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research,3,January 7,2013,Asia:TechnologyLooking to 2013,we expect global LCD TV demand growth to remain low with
25、shipmentsof 216.7mn units,up 4.6%yoy,and compares with DisplaySearchs forecast of 216.1mnunits,up 4.3%yoy.Overall LCD TV demand remains lackluster due to a weak product cycle,a lack of killer features,already high penetration of the installed base,and soft consumersentiment.We expect the North Ameri
26、can LCD TV market to reach 38.9mn units,up 0.7%yoy,and compares with DisplaySearchs forecast of 39.9mn units.Exhibit 2:North American LCD TV demand may remain soft in 2013 as wellLCD TV demand outlook,(mn units)JapanNorth AmericaEuropeChinaROWTotal,20077.724.229.48.79.179.2,20088.830.138.813.415.510
27、6.4,200912.537.542.829.323.5145.7,201023.438.353.137.938.8191.6,201119.438.251.444.751.6205.3,2012E7.938.651.547.761.5207.2,2013E8.038.951.849.368.6216.7,yoy ch(%)0.50.70.73.511.74.6,Source:DisplaySearch,Goldman Sachs Research estimates.Aggressive tablet targets expectedAlthough LCD TV demand is lac
28、kluster,our industry checks indicate that smartphone andtablet demand was relatively firm during the holiday season.In addition,hardware makersare embracing the structural shift to tablets more aggressively in 2013.We expect to seethis trend very clearly at 2013 CES with the majority of hardware mak
29、ers offering a tabletportfolio.By adding up the 2013 targets of just the larger tablet makers(see Exhibit 3),wecan see that the cumulative target of just a few brands easily surpasses our 2013 tabletforecast of 167.8mn units,up 41.3%yoy.Of note,the sub-total in Exhibit 3 does not includeAmazons Kind
30、le,Barnes&Nobles Nook,Googles Nexus,or Microsofts Surface tabletproducts.While we realize that some of these numbers could be companies stretchedgoals,it does signal the possibility that tablet demand could be greater compared to ourestimate.Our US technology team believes that Apple should remain t
31、he dominant tablet playerbacked by its robust ecosystem,attractive designs,and tiered product offerings(iPad andiPad mini).Meanwhile,we believe that tablet makers in Asia such as Samsung Electronics(SEC)will continue to support the Android operating system as well as the Windows 8(including Windows
32、RT).In China,we believe incremental tablet growth may come at lowerprice points,but components such as batteries,touchscreens,and application processors(AP)should still benefit from this trend.Exhibit 3:Company tablet targets exceed our forecast and could represent upside riskSummary of tablet targe
33、ts,MakerAppleSamsung ElectronicsChina white boxLenovoSub-total,2013 target101.5mn40-50mn100mn2.5mn244-254mn,CommentRepresents 53.3%growthLocal press including Maeil Business Newspaper have quoted this range,GS estimate is 23.5mnCumulative number from China tech analyst Donald Lus latest tour in Chin
34、aCompares with 1mn units in 2012Compares against our forecast of 167.8mn units,Source:Company data,Goldman Sachs Research estimates.In our view,stronger tablet growth will likely provide higher demand opportunity forpolymer battery and touch panel within component supply chains.In the case of polyme
35、rbattery,our base case assumes global polymer demand will increase 38%yoy to 1.1bncells in 2013 from 922mn cells in 2012,primarily driven by strong demand growth fromGoldman Sachs Global Investment Research,4,January 7,2013,Asia:Technologytablet.Per our scenario analysis,a 10%increase in tablet ship
36、ment over our base caseestimate will likely increase global polymer battery demand by 4%for 2013.Within ourcoverage,we believe Samsung SDI(006400.KS),the main battery suuplier for tablets,maybe one of the largest beneficiaries of higher battery demand resulting from tablet growth.In addition,we fore
37、see that stronger tablet shipments could accelerate demand growth fortouch panels and related components such ITO film.This would be positive for ITO filmmaker,Nitto Denko.In the case of NAND,although stronger tablet growth will be positivefor sentiment,we foresee limited impact as we believe NAND d
38、ensity per device is a morecritical demand driver than unit shipments.Of note,we welcome the positive outlook forthe tablet market,but we need to be diligent in watching the actual 1H13 product build asmisguided optimism by some hardware makers could result in small inventory correctionlater in the
39、year,if demand does not sell in.Ultra high definition LCD TVs to make a larger impact in 2013Ultra high definition(UHD)TFT-LCD panels have been showcased at display centricindustry conferences and electronics trade shows in Korea as early as 2008.However,UHDTFT-LCD TVs made a very conspicuous appear
40、ance at last years CES as Japanese TV setmakers promoted the technology aggressively as they lacked the AM OLED TV setshighlighted by SEC and LG Electronics(LGE).However,UHD LCD TVs have gainedmomentum into 2013 as higher resolution is a tangible improvement that consumersappreciate(the“wow factor”)
41、and consumers are placing greater value(especially in NorthAmerica and China)on larger screen sizes.UHD is defined as resolution of 3840 x 2160(2160 vertical lines of resolution and 3840pixels on each line).This is double the lines of resolution of full high definition(Full HD;1920 x 1080 resolution
42、)TVs and also the reason why UHD TVs are often referred to as 4k2kTVs.UHD is not isolated to just TFT-LCD technology.TFT-LCD is the first displaytechnology to adopt this resolution commercially because TFT-LCD is the dominant displaytechnology and making large-sized TFT-LCD panels in volume is relat
43、ively easier comparedto other display technologies.Exhibit 4:Size not resolution is the main hurdle in building UHD TVsPixels per inch summary by tech product,Product,Size(inch)Display tech,Resolution,No.of pixels(mn)Pixels per inch,SmartphoneTabletNotebookMonitorTV,4.04.85.37.89.710.114.015.621.523
44、32404255607085,LTPSAM OLEDAM OLEDTFT-LCDTFT-LCDTFT-LCDTFT-LCDTFT-LCDTFT-LCDTFT-LCDTFT-LCDTFT-LCDTFT-LCDAM OLEDTFT-LCDTFT-LCDTFT-LCD,1136 x 6401280 x 7201280 x 7201024 x 7682048 x 15361280 x 8001366 x 7681366 x 7681920 x 10801920 x 10801366 x 7681920 x 10801920 x 10801920 x 10801920 x 10803840 x 2160
45、3840 x 2160,0.70.90.90.83.11.01.01.02.12.11.02.12.12.12.18.38.3,3263062771642641491121001029649555240376352,Source:Company data,Goldman Sachs Research estimates.As shown in Exhibit 4,the pixel density(pixels per inch,ppi)of large-sized UHD TVs islower than that of mobile device and IT product panels
46、 and similar to smaller-sized Full HDTV panels.Therefore,we believe that the challenge with making UHD resolution panelsmay not be the resolution,but making large-sized panels with no defects.At 8.3mn pixels,Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research,5,January 7,2013,Asia:Technology,UHD panels have ab
47、out four times the pixels of Full HD panels and more than eight timesthe pixels of smartphone panels.Basically,this means that panel makers have to fabricatethat many more pixels with no defects across a very large surface area.Recall that displaypanels are fabricated on motherglass substrates this
48、means that many panels are madeoff one substrate at the same time.For smartphones,one motherglass substrate may yieldabout 250-400 panels depending on size.If there is one defect on the motherglass,only onepanel may be discarded,which still results in a very high yield and efficiency.However,even on
49、 an 8G TFT-LCD motherglass,panel makers can only cut two 70-inch or 85-inchpanels.This implies that just one defect will result in half the production potentially beingdiscarded.Nevertheless,we also believe TFT-LCD production technology has matured tothe level where manufacturing yields of these ver
50、y large-sized panels on 8G motherglasssubstrates are higher than 60%.We expect that all major TV set makers will showcase UHD LCD TVs at 2013 CES.SEC andLGE may be the most aggressive competing with the greatest number of products as wellas the largest UHD LCD TV screen sizes.We would not be surpris
