《MININGCOMMODITIES：BASEMETALSUPDATEMARCH0327.ppt》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《MININGCOMMODITIES：BASEMETALSUPDATEMARCH0327.ppt（12页珍藏版）》请在三一办公上搜索。
1、March 23,2012Mining CommoditiesEquity ResearchBase Metals Update,March 2012KEY POINTS:Prices and inventories:Base metals prices have risen year-to-date:Copper and zinc by 10%each,aluminium by 9%,and nickel by a verymodest 1%.While the fall in LME copper stocks has been supportive formarket sentiment
2、,we note that total exchange stocks for all metals copper included have risen since December 31.This is not undulysurprising its winter in the northern hemisphere,and the Lunar NewYear also take a toll on consumption but neither is it inconsistent with ourcautious view on consumption.Demand:Late las
3、t year,as the European debt crisis unfolded,and as theextent of policy tightening in China became clearer,we adopted relativelycautious forecasts for base metals offtake in 2012.Based on the latestdemand indicators and recently published estimates for 1Q2012consumption(by Wood Mackenzie),we remain v
4、ery comfortable with ourconservative expectations for metal offtake this year.China trade:Chinas record copper imports over the past few monthshave buoyed market sentiment,but the volumes do not reflect realconsumption;inventories have risen.We expect imports to fall over thecoming months.Supply:We
5、discuss the putative ban on exports of unprocessed rawmaterials notably bauxite and nickel laterite from Indonesia,for whichthe government now plans to bring forward the implementation date toMay this year.In our opinion,a“blanket ban”on raw materials exports isunlikely to occur,particularly in such
6、 a condensed timeframe,but weregard the situation as a potential source of upside price risk(for alumina,aluminium,and nickel).,Malcolm Southwood+61(3)9679-1647 Goldman Sachs Australia Pty LtdChristian Lelong+61(2)9321-8635 Goldman Sachs Australia Pty LtdThe Goldman Sachs Group,Inc.,Goldman Sachs do
7、es and seeks to do business withcompanies covered in its research reports.As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investorsshould consider this report as only a single factor in makingtheir investment decisio
8、n.For Reg AC certification and otherimportant disclosures,see the Disclosure Appendix,or go Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analystswith FINRA in the U.S.Global Investment Research,2,March 23,2012Key data:Prices,inventories,and costsExhibit 1:Base meta
9、ls summaryExchange data as at 22/3/2012,Mining Commodities,Aluminium,Copper,Nickel,Zinc,Prices,LME CashLME CashChange vs 30 days agoChange vs 1 year agoLME 3-monthCash price index,(US$/t)(USc/lb)%(US$/t)(1/01/12=100),214097-3.6-17.72182109,8320377-0.1-14.38290110,18470838-7.6-30.818530101,200491-0.1
10、-15.62005110,Inventory Analysis,LME North AmericaLME EuropeLME AsiaTotal LME StocksChange vs 30 days agoChange vs 1 year agoComex North AmericaShanghai Futures ExchangeTotal Exchange StocksTotal exchange stocks,31/12/11Producer stocksConsumer stocksOther identified stocksTotal Identified StocksGloba
11、l consumption(2012 est)Change vs 2011Stocks-to-consumption ratio,(kt)(kt)(kt)(kt)%(kt)(kt)(kt)(kt)(kt)(kt)(kt)(kt)(kt)%Days,223119319225084-0.810.7-364544851781603-11878238468664.464.2,2013520255-16.4-41.2902275725441961074001275196142.323.7,08612980.5-21.2-989078223823616283.452.9,696291658904.621.
12、0-3871277118633573331718127682.949.1,Cost Structure,Median C1 costNinth decile C1 cost,(USc/lb)(USc/lb),93112,135217,583901,4769,Source:IRESS;Wood-Mackenzie;CRU;IAI;Goldman Sachs Research estimatesBase metal consumption:A mixed start to 2012Austerity measures in Europe,a faltering economic recovery
13、in the USA,and slowing ratesof growth in China all contributed,late last year,to our taking a more cautious view ofconsumption prospects for base metals in 2012.Exhibit 2 shows the latest quarterlyconsumption estimates from Wood Mackenzie,and we offer the following observations inreconciling these e
14、stimates with anecdotal feedback from our industry contacts,and withour own consumption forecasts for 2012.Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research,3,March 23,2012,Mining Commodities,Aluminium:Global aluminium consumption rose by 9.3%in 2011 according to Wood Mackenzieestimates,with China(+16.4%)enj
15、oying particularly strong growth.Chinas 1Q2012 offtakeis estimated to be up 9.6%vs pcp,but only 0.4%higher versus 4Q2011.Globally,1Qconsumption is estimated to be 4.2%higher y/y in spite of a contraction in Europe(-3.6%).We are currently forecasting a 4.4%rise in global consumption this year(includi
16、ng China+9%)and we remain very comfortable with our forecast.Exhibit 2:Base metals consumption estimatesQuarterly data,through 1Q2012,%change;,%change;,%change;,2010,1Q11,2Q11,3Q11,4Q11,2011,11 vs10,1Q12,1Q12 vs 1Q11 1Q12 vs 4Q11,Aluminium,ChinaUSAEuropeRoWGlobal,16519462779921175140889,422911532195
17、308210659,538212372199310411922,499811532063298511199,461312611962306810904,19222480384201223944684,16.43.85.44.29.3,463312122115315211112,9.65.1-3.62.34.2,0.4-3.97.82.71.9,Copper,ChinaUSAEuropeRoWGlobal,720417603075722519264,153345073217634478,208147180019165268,211646873418165134,20504246911778494
18、3,778018132958727219823,8.03.0-3.80.72.9,161045270917744545,5.00.4-3.10.61.5,-21.56.62.6-0.2-8.1,Nickel,ChinaUSAEuropeRoWGlobal,5421274034521524,15335108113409,16531106109411,1663195107399,17031101105407,6551284103831576,20.80.81.7-15.33.4,16834105111418,9.8-2.9-2.8-1.82.2,-1.29.74.05.72.7,Zinc,Chin
19、aUSAEuropeRoWGlobal,470510072290697611681,n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.3202,n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.3245,n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.3075,n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.3049,525710492432731312570,11.74.26.24.87.6,n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.3241,-1.2,-6.3,Source:Wood MackenzieGoldman Sachs Global Investment Research,4,March 23,2012Exhibit 3:Aluminium:US Inde
20、x of New OrdersRecovery trend intact,but still below pre-GFC levels,Mining CommoditiesExhibit 4:Copper exchange inventories by locationFalling LME stocks offset by rise in Shanghai,120,2007=100,TotalTotal(exc.Can-Stock),SFE China(kt)Comex Nth Am(kt),LME Asia(kt)LME Nth Am(kt),LME Europe(kt),900,1101
21、0090807060,8007006005004003002001000,Jan-07,Jan-08,Jan-09,Jan-10,Jan-11,Jan-12,Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12,Source:Aluminum Association,Source:IRESS;Reuters,Exhibit 3 shows the index of new orders for aluminium mill products in the USA.Thelatest data points(for Janu
22、ary and February 2012)confirm that the recovery trend is backon track,after what was frankly a disturbing collapse in orders volumes in 2H2011.Nevertheless,mill product orders have yet to recover sustainably to pre-GFC levels.Whilethis data series is specific to aluminium semis orders in the USA,we
23、believe that it is areasonable proxy for how semis orders are evolving in other industrialized regions,and forother major metals.We see“grinding recovery”and offtake below pre-GFC levels as fairlygeneric at this stage.Copper:Fundamentally,copper remains by far the strongest of the base metals,as the
24、 inventoryanalysis in Exhibit 1 demonstrates;total identified inventories amount to just 24 days ofglobal copper consumption,compared with zinc(49 days);nickel(53 days)and aluminium(64 days).However,there are a number of potentially misleading signals in the coppermarket at the moment,with potential
25、 confusion as to the strength of demand in thedifferent regional markets.Chinas record copper imports in recent months(see below)have boosted apparentconsumption,which rose by nearly 29%in Jan/Feb(vs pcp).Wood Mackenzie estimatesthat Chinas refined copper offtake in 1Q2012(Exhibit 2)will be 5%higher
26、 y/y but,on theother hand,Chinas National Bureau of Statistics has reported a 21%rise in semisproduction for the two months of the year(Exhibit 4).The data discrepancies are a littledisconcerting,though by no means unprecedented.In our view,the Wood Mackenzieestimate(+5%)is more consistent with the
27、current slowdown in construction andmanufacturing activity in China,and with anecdotal evidence from our industry contactsthat semis producers particularly brass mills are operating well below capacity.Weremain comfortable with our forecast of 5.2%consumption growth for China in 2012.Outside of Chin
28、a the steady fall in LME copper stocks,and higher premiums in NorthAmerica and Europe risk giving the impression that demand is somewhat healthier than webelieve it to be.It should be noted that so far in 2012,the fall in LME stocks has been morethan offset by the rise in SFE inventories(Exhibit 4);
29、firmer premiums,we believe,are theresult of inventory relocations,rather than inventory consumption.Wood Mackenzieexpects 1Q2012 offtake in Europe to be 3.1%down on pcp,while US offtake is forecastmarginally higher at+0.4%vs 1Q2011.They estimate that 1Q2012 global consumption willbe 1.5%higher than
30、pcp.We remain comfortable with our full year global consumptiongrowth forecast of+2.3%.Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research,5,March 23,2012,Mining Commodities,Nickel:Approximately two thirds of primary nickel consumption is attributable to the stainlesssteel industry,and CRU International estima
31、tes that global production of austenitic(i.e.nickel-bearing)grades in 1Q2012 will fall by 5.2%vs pcp.Chinese stainless production isenjoying brisk growth,but 1Q production in Japan,Europe,the USA and Taiwan are allexpected to suffer double digit falls.At this stage Wood Mackenzie estimates a 9.8%inc
32、rease in Chinas 1Q2012 primary nickel consumption,with modest single digit falls inother regions.We believe that falling nickel prices since late January have deterred nickelbuyers from building inventory ahead of the traditionally stronger seasonal demand in theJune quarter.Our forecast for global
33、nickel consumption growth in 2012 is+3.4%.Zinc:Globally,Wood Mackenzie estimates that 1Q2012 zinc offtake will come in some 1.2%higher than pcp.Unfortunately it provides no regional breakdown of this forecast but,based on anecdotal evidence from our industry contacts,we understand that US zincconsum
34、ption is surprisingly strong,and running some 5-7%above pcp,while Europeanconsumption is down versus pcp by 3-5%.In China,apparent consumption of zinc inJan/Feb 2012 is up on pcp by a little under 2%.Our forecast for global zinc consumptiongrowth in 2012 is+2.9%.China trade:Record copper imports as
35、China restocksChinas latest trade statistics confirmed that February imports of refined copper were thesecond highest on record at 375,800 tonnes,surpassed only by the December 2011 numberof 406,900 tonnes(Exhibit 5).Chinas copper imports are closely watched by the marketand sometimes misconstrued,i
36、n our opinion,as a synchronised barometer of industrialactivity.The recent period of record imports has boosted apparent consumption(Exhibit 6),which we estimate rose by 28.8%in the January/February period versus pcp.This estimateallows for the Jan/Feb build in Shanghai Futures Exchange stocks,but i
37、t does not captureother inventory changes,including the bonded warehouse stocks in Shanghai.In ouropinion,the Wood Mackenzie estimate discussed above indicating that Chinas realconsumption of refined copper rose by 5%in the first two months of the year is muchmore consistent with the slower growth i
38、mplied by recent economic indicators andanecdotal evidence.,Exhibit 5:China:Imports of refined copperResurgent imports over the past six months,Exhibit 6:Chinas apparent copper consumptiondriving record apparent consumption,500450400350300250200150100500,Net Refined Imports(kt;LHS),LME Cash Price(US
39、c/lb;RHS)500450400350300250200150100500,10009008007006005004003002001000,Net trade(000t)Apparent Consumption(000t),Production(000t),Jan-06,Jan-07,Jan-08,Jan-09,Jan-10,Jan-11,Jan-12,Jan-99,Jan-01,Jan-03,Jan-05,Jan-07,Jan-09,Jan-11,Source:China Customs;IRESSGoldman Sachs Global Investment Research,Sou
40、rce:China Customs;Reuters,6,March 23,2012,Mining CommoditiesA significant restocking event has taken place in China over the past few months;encouraged by the price correction in 3Q2011,which was very timely from the Chineseperspective given the destocking that occurred late in 2010 and early 2011.R
41、aw materialsimports have trended higher,but with much less volatility than cathode volumes(Exhibit 7).We expect refined copper imports to fall over the next few months,particularly given thatthe price“arbitrage window”no longer favours profitable import bookings(Exhibit 8).,Exhibit 7:China:Imports o
42、f copper raw materials,Exhibit 8:Copper:Shanghai/London price arbitrageCurrent arbitrage would discourage fresh import bookings,Scrap(kt),Concentrate(kt),800,Anode(kt),Refined(kt),10.09.5,Impt.breakeven ratioRatio:SFE/LME(3mth),700600500400300200100,9.08.58.07.57.0,Expt.breakeven ratio,0Jan-06,Jan-0
43、7,Jan-08,Jan-09,Jan-10,Jan-11,Jan-12,6.5Dec-06,Dec-07,Dec-08,Dec-09,Dec-10,Dec-11,Source:China Customs,Source:Bloomberg;IRESS,Indonesia:A ban on bauxite and laterite exports?The regulatory framework for foreign resources companies operating in Indonesia isshifting markedly.The recent presidential de
44、cree that will force foreign companies to selldown stakes in Indonesian mining operations to a maximum of 49%by Year 10 ofoperation is controversial to say the least,although it is not yet clear quite how it will beimplemented and which companies may or may not be affected.Similar uncertainty surrou
45、nds the outlook for Indonesias raw materials exports.Markets have been aware since 2009 that the Indonesian government intended to banexports of unprocessed raw materials with effect from 2014,and on February 6 this year,adecree to this effect was signed by the minister of Minerals and Energy Resour
46、ces.Thepolicy is aimed at obliging miners to process raw materials in Indonesia.The market was caught by surprise,however,on February 23 when it was announced thatthe ban on the export of raw bauxite and nickel laterite would be brought forward to Maythis year,ostensibly to counter what the governme
47、nt considered to be a surge in exportstriggered by the confirmation of the 2014 ban.On March 15,the Jakarta Post carried astory that a 25%duty might be imposed on bauxite exports,possibly rising to 50%if thesurge in export volumes continues.According to Indonesias Energy and Mineral Resources Minist
48、ry,bauxite exports were alittle short of 40 million tonnes in 2011,up from 27 million tonnes in 2010,while nickellaterite exports reached 33 million tonnes last year,almost doubling from 17 million tonnesin 2010.Chinas trade statistics indicate that 90%of the bauxite exports and 80%of thenickel late
49、rite exports were shipped to China.To put this in context:Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research,7,March 23,2012,Mining Commodities,On our estimates,some 40%of the alumina consumed by Chinese aluminium smelterslast year was refined from Indonesian bauxite.This in turn implies that almost 17%ofglob
50、al primary aluminium output was attributable to Indonesian ore.For nickel,our estimates are less precise,but we calculate that Indonesia provided thefeedstock for between 60%and 65%of Chinas output of nickel-in-pig-iron productionin 2011.This would be equivalent to approximately 10%of global nickel
