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1、1,市场和产品分析 The Market Assessment,罗宾 达西农业经济学家加拿大国际开发暑基本生活改善项目Robin Darcy,Deb Rasmussen,Agriteam Canada,2,内容Contents,1 市场体系 The Marketing System什么是市场体系？What is the marketing system?为什么我们需要掌握市场体系？Why do we need to understand the marketing system?,3,内容Contents,2市场分析 Market Analysis长远展望和策略 Long-term outlo
2、ok and strategy方法 Methodologies引导市场分析 Conducting a market assessment确定和调查市场 Identifying and examining markets调查市场体制 Examining the marketing system分析制约因素和机遇 Identifying constraints and opportunities核算市场费用 Calculating marketing costs,4,市场体系The Marketing System什么是市场体系What is the marketing system?,5,销售的
3、目的是什么？What is the goal of marketing?,调查消费者需求Finding out what the consumer wants向消费者提供盈利产品Supplying the consumer at a profit,6,什么是市场体系？What is the marketing system?,所谓的市场体系是指如何将生产者的产品送到消费者的手里The marketing system is how goods get from the producer to the end consumer在市场体系中有很多不同层次的分配渠道There are many di
4、fferent levels and distribution channels in the marketing system,7,Consumers消费者,Retailers零售商,Wholesalers,Handlers,Processors,Transporters,Storage批发商，装卸工，加工者。运输者，保管者,Producers生产者,简化的市场体系模式Simplified Marketing System Model,8,什么是市场体系？What is the marketing system?,农业产品经常有很多不同的市场（各种类型的购买者）There are usual
5、ly many different markets(types of buyers)for agricultural products为获得成功，明确以下几点是很必要的To be successful,it is necessary to identify在市场体系内的不同的市场和各自市场的需求the different markets within the marketing system and what each market wants不同的市场体系的份额是如何相互影响how the different parts of the marketing system interact wi
6、th each other,9,不同层次的市场体系The different levels of the marketing system,在市场链里有许多不同的市场和层次There are many different markets and levels in the marketing chain生产者 Producers装卸工和包装工 Handlers and packagers运输者 Transporters经销商，批发商和分配者 Traders,wholesalers and distributors保管 Storage加工者 Processors零售商 Retailers消费者C
7、onsumers,10,11,End Markets最终市场,Individuals and households 个体和农户Organizations 组织 factories,restaurants 组织、饭店Intermediate customers中间消费者wholesale traders,retail outlets,agents,brokers,traders,processors批发商、零售、代理、中间人、贸易商、农产品加工者Government 政府 Schools,hospitals,military 学校、医院、军队Foreign market外国市场,12,Produ
8、ct and Markets for your beef你肉牛的产品和市场(participants identify options)（学员任意确定）,Beef Farmer 养肉牛农民Product options 产品任选Marketing options 市场任选,Dragon Head Co.龙头公司Product options 产品任选Marketing options 市场任选,13,Products&Markets Small farmers(some suggestions)产品和市场小农（一些建议）,Products产品Frame cattle 架子牛Slaughter
9、cattle 屠宰牛Breeding stock 种畜,Market options 市场选择Sell in local market 在当地市场销售Sell to Dragonhead 出售给龙头Feed at home 在家饲养Sell in wet market 在鲜肉市场销售Sell to Dragonhead 出售给龙头Sell to other Co.出售给其他公司Use in own herd自己畜群使用Sell to neighbours卖给邻居,14,Products&markets DragonHead产品和市场龙头,Products产品Breeding cattle种牛E
10、mbryos,AI 胚胎、人工授精Frame cattle 架子牛Slaughter cattle 屠宰牛Carcasses and cuts 胴体和切割Processed meats 加工肉,Markets市场Local farmers当地农民IMAR and China 内蒙和中国Own feedlot 自有育肥场Other plants其它工厂Own plant自有工厂Local,IMAR,China 当的、内蒙古、中国Stores&restaurants 商店和饭店Own or others自有或其它出售给龙头,15,为什么我们需要掌握市场体系？Why do we need to un
11、derstand the marketing system?,因为在没有掌握市场之前进行生产是非常危险的Because it is very risky to produce without understanding the marketing system在现有的市场中寻找农民获得最大利润的市场Need to find highest margin markets available for farmers by looking at all available markets需要掌握通向市场的障碍和在市场体系内发现机遇Need to understand constraints to a
12、ccessing these markets and find opportunities within the marketing system,16,市场分析Market Analysis我们如何分析市场潜力？How do we analyze market potential?,17,我们如何分析一个市场？How do we analyze a market?,市场分析的目的是什么？What is the goal of a market analysis?长远的展望和策略Long-term outlook and strategy方法Methodologies指导市场分析Conduct
13、ing a market assessment确定和调查市场 Identifying and examining markets调查市场体系Examining the marketing system明确各种障碍和机遇Identifying constraints and opportunities经营成本核算Calculating marketing costs,18,市场分析的目的是什么？What is the goal of market analysis?,为生产者寻求能够创最大利润的长远的机遇Finding the most profitable long-term opportun
14、ities for producers寻求同加工（工厂），储藏及批发等各个环节上的潜力Could also look at potential for processing(factories),storage,wholesaling etc.关键是把聚焦放在挖掘各个市场潜力上和试图去发现生产者能够进入并获得最大利润的市场Key is to focus on the potential of each market,and try to find the highest margin markets that producers can access,19,长远的规划和分析Planning a
15、nd Analyzing for the Long-Term,必须正视长远的市场潜力，否则得不偿失Must view long term potential of market,otherwise of little to use 需要调查增长中的市场潜力、未来参与进来的更多的竞争者和产量增大而导致的价格下滑等因素Need to examine market potential for growth,entrance of competitors in the future,price decreases with increased production etc.,20,方法Methodol
16、ogy,间接来源Secondary sources直接来源Primary sources,21,间接来源Secondary Sources,政府的统计 Government statistics中国农业统计年鉴 China Agricultural yearbook地区，县和乡的统计数字 Prefecture,county and xiang statistics国际互连网 Internet国际组织 International organizations文章 Articles统计Statistics,22,直接来源Primary Sources,面谈 Interviews 生产者 Produc
17、ers中间人-批发商，运输者，保管者等 Middlemen wholesalers,transporters,storage etc.零售商 Retailers消费者 Consumers工业组织 Industry Organizations产品测试和品尝味道 Product trials,taste tests,23,我们寻找什么？机遇和障碍（挑战）What do we look for?Opportunities and Constraints,确定市场/购买者 Identify the markets/buyers各自市场或购买者想要什么 What does each market or
18、buyer want 市场特点 Market characteristics价格 Prices 调查现有的供应量 Examine existing supply 分析竞争的优势和劣势 Analyze competitive advantages and disadvantages分析现存和潜在的市场链里的障碍 Analyze existing and potential constraints in the marketing chain制定减小风险的策略 Develop strategies to minimize risks,24,明确购买者Identify buyers,汉族和/或穆斯林
19、 Chinese and/or Muslim城市或乡村 Urban or rural批发，小经营者或直接到消费者 Wholesale,small traders or direct to consumers加工 Processing海外 Overseas内地 Mainland China,25,土豆是如何送到购买者处的？How does it get to these buyers?,26,市场需求什么？What does the market want?,多样性 Variety包装 Packaging颜色 Colour介绍 Presentation.规模 Size按日，按季节性送货 Day,
20、season of delivery等级和质量标准 Grading and quality standards,27,What does the market want?市场需求什么？,28,分析市场特点Examine market characteristics,规模 Size小的市场因更转化通常风险更大，并更容易陷入困境和降价Small markets are often more risky as they are often more specialized and it is easier to swamp the market and reduce prices小市场里的价格通常较
21、高Prices are often higher in small markets增长（发展）Growth市场增长是好事 Growing market is better如果市场是稳定的话，需要比其他生产者有更多的优势If market is stable,need an advantage over other producers趋势 Trends移民Immigration,29,价格分析Analyzing Prices,长期的价格 Prices over time 农场（农田）Farm批发商收购价 Wholesale buying批发价 Wholesale selling零售价格 Reta
22、il prices季节性 Seasonality 通货膨胀 Inflation等级和质量 Grades and quality,30,价格预测Price forecasting,在同样的需求下当产量增加时，会导致价格下滑Price will decrease when production increases if demand is the same如果产品的市场正在扩大，对增加产量的影响不是很明确的要依靠供需方面的相对的增长来决定If market is growing for the product,the effect of increased production will be u
23、ncertain depends on relative increases in supply and demand价格通常最初会跌的很快，然后会慢慢的下滑Price usually declines quickly at first then price declines more slowly,31,未来的价格预测Forecasting Future Prices,32,未来的价格预测Forecasting Future Prices,Price(RMB/jin)价格元/斤,产量 吨Production(Tonnes),Staple crop大众农作物,Niche crop特殊农作物,3
24、3,季节性的价格Price Seasonality,34,竞争的优势和劣势Competitive advantages and disadvantages,其他还有谁在生产这种产品？Who else is producing this product?与市场的距离运费Location to market transport costs规模和范围的经济Economies of scale and scope产品成本Production costs销售网络Marketing network市场的形象Marketing image,35,现存的供应Existing Supply,谁是现在的供应商 W
25、ho are the current suppliers季节性的不同供应地Seasonality from different areas包装Packaging等级和质量标准Grading and quality standards同现有的供应商之间矛盾Problems with existing suppliers影响销售的因素气候，节日等等Factors affecting sales weather,festivals etc.农作物是否储存？是谁？Is the crop stored?By who?腐烂Perishability,36,分析销售链Analyzing the Market
26、ing Chain,掌握此结构 Understand the structure分析现在销售链里所面临的各种障碍和风险Examine constraints and risk currently faced in the marketing chain为新的生产者分析障碍和风险 Assess constraints and risk for new producers-开拓克服障碍和减小风险的策略Develop strategies to overcome constraints and reduce risk,37,市场体系的主要障碍Constraints in the Marketing
27、System,缺乏信息 Lack of information 规模经济Economies of scale范围经济Economies of scope资本投资的要求Capital investment requirements缺乏基础设施Lack of infrastructure议价能力Bargaining power运费Transport costs,38,风险和无把握Risk and uncertainty,对农民来说主要因素在生产和销售两个方面Major factors for farmers both in production and marketing政府在降低风险方面的作用M
28、ajor role for government in minimizing risk更大风险，对容易腐烂的作物人们不是很感兴趣The higher the risk,the less interested people will be-mention perishable crops成本过高给农民带来的风险Risk carries high costs for small farmers没有足够吃的Not enough to eat没钱支付化肥，学费，药费等各种费用No money to pay fertilizer,school fees,health care costs etc.,39
29、,减少风险的方法Ways to Reduce Risk,签订生产合同 Contracting a portion of production 保证有购买者Guaranteed buyer 稳定的价格Stabilized prices坚定关系可以替代Strong relationship can be a substitute种植从风险大到小的不同范围的产品Growing a range of products high and low risk提供市场信息Provide market information,40,计算销售成本Calculating marketing costs,准备和包装P
30、reparation and packaging装卸Handling运输Transport损耗Losses储存Storage 加工Processing资本费用Capital Costs各种费，佣金和非官方的额外开支Fees,commissions and unofficial payments,41,What have we learned?我们掌握了什么？,掌握了市场链 Understand the marketing chain通过市场链发现更多的机遇和各种制约的因素 Look for opportunities and constraints throughout the marketi
31、ng chain明确购买者和他们的需求 Identify the buyers and what each buyer wants,42,What have we learned?我们掌握了什么？,研究价格以发现最高毛利市场 Examine prices to find highest margin markets分析市场链里的各种制约因素和寻找生产者能够进入市场 Examine the marketing chain for constraints and to find markets that producers can access建立克服障碍和减少风险的策略 Develop stra
32、tegies to overcome constraints and minimize risk,43,Key marketing questions主要的市场问题,Who will buy our cattle or embryos?谁将购买我们的牛和胚胎？How much do they buy?他们买多少？When do they buy?Where do they buy?他们什么时候买？在那儿买？What price will they pay?他们出什么价？What quality characteristics do they expect?他们期望的质量特征是什么？What s
33、ervice do they expect?他们需要什么服务？How big is the size of this market 这个市场的规模多大(#and total value of sales in China per year)（在中国每年的销售数量和总价值）Who are my competitors?我们的竞争对手是谁？,44,The Marketing Strategy市场战略,Four key elements:四个主要方面：Product what are we selling 产品我们出售什么Price what price is it sold at 价格我们要在什么
34、价格出售Place what is the distribution system 地点销售体系是什么Promotion advertising strategy 促进广告战略,45,Key strategies:主要战略,Leading by quality质量第一Getting higher prices with better quality质量好价格高Dominating on cost支配成本Providing the product at a lower cost than your competitors,but producing large amounts提高的产品的成本低于你的竞争对手，但要大量生产Concentration:集中Focus on a small section of the market 集中在市场的一小部分,
