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1、,2013 年 1 月 18 日Issue No:13/03欧洲经济分析研究报告外部再平衡：取得进展，但仍面临显著挑战,欧元区边缘国家的净外债依然高企在 2008/09 年金融危机之前的 10 年中，欧元区大多数边缘国家存在着不断上升的巨额经常账户逆差，并积累了大量的净外债。与之相对的是德国净债权规模的显著上升。因此实际汇率需要进行大幅调整为实现外部再平衡，边缘区经济体需要达到并保持可观的经常账户顺差，才能削减外债。实际汇率需要贬值才能将全球需求转移至边缘国家的可贸易商品及服务领域。然而，在汇率不具灵活性的情况下，这需要一个漫长而痛苦的内部贬值过程。欧元区内部的再平衡还需要德国通胀率升至远高于
2、欧元区均值并高于历史正常值的水平。过去两年中已取得明显进展在过去两年中，边缘区经济体的经常账户状况已显著改善（甚至在经过周期性因素调整后亦是如此）。因此，我们估测这些经济体为达到外部平衡所需实现的实际汇率贬值幅度已显著收窄。但法国实际汇率需要贬值的程度（同样可观）却在同期进一步扩大。但依然需要大幅再平衡尽管边缘区经济体有所改善，它们再平衡的挑战依然显著。进一步痛苦的内部贬值仍势在必行。结构性改革和经济重组固然是调整的更佳途径：比如，将资源转移至可贸易领域可以降低所需的实际汇率贬值幅度。但结构性改革并非“免费的午餐”：它们必须克服希望维持现状的既得政治利益。在没有市场压力的情况,Huw Pill
3、+44(20)7774-8736 高盛国际Kevin Daly+44(20)7774-5908 高盛国际Dirk Schumacher+49(69)7532-1210 高盛集团德国公司Andrew Benito+44(20)7051-4004 高盛国际Lasse Holboell Nielsen+44(20)7774-5205 高盛国际Natacha Valla+33(1)4212-1343 高盛国际Antoine Demongeot+44(20)7774-1169 高盛国际Sebastian Graves+44(20)7552-5748 高盛国际,下，改革步伐可能因为利益集团的压力而停滞。投
4、资者不应视本报告为作出投资决策的唯一因素。有关分析师的申明和其他重要信息，见信息披露附录，或参阅,1,2,3,4,1,2,3,4,2,2013 年 1 月 18 日,European Economics Analyst,External rebalancing:Progress,but a sizeable challenge remainsNet debt,current accounts and real exchange rate adjustmentsThe Euro area faces a rebalancing challenge.During the first 10 year
5、s of the EMU,the peripheryran up large net debt positions as current account deficits rose sharply.The flip-side of thesedeficits was the increased current account surplus in Germany,which built up a rising net assetposition.Over the past year,we have attempted to quantify the Euro area rebalancing
6、challenge.On our estimates,Greece,Portugal,Spain and France all require significant real exchange ratedepreciation,absent structural reform,to achieve external sustainability.While we view this scaleof rebalancing as possible via internal devaluation,the process is likely to be painful and lengthy.M
7、oreover,if rebalancing is to occur,Germany will face inflation rates well above the Euro areaaverage,which may prove politically challenging.However,effective structural reform andeconomic restructuring have the potential to significantly reduce the required adjustment.In this European Economics Ana
8、lyst,we consider how this rebalancing requirement has evolvedover the past 6-8 quarters since our last exercise.Progress across the periphery has been fasterthan expected.But the remaining rebalancing challenge remains sizeable.France stands out as acountry that has,so far,failed to adjust:indeed,it
9、s rebalancing requirement has risen over thepast two years.We evaluate rebalancing developments by considering changes to the inputs to our calculation.Our preferred gauge of external sustainability is to consider the current account surplus that isneeded to bring the countrys net financial asset po
10、sition to within+/-25%of GDP over a 20-yearperiod.We then translate this into relative price changes.The key inputs to our calculations are:(i)initial net financial assets,(ii)the current account(incyclically adjusted terms)and(iii)structural parameters affecting the price channel.We considerthe rec
11、ent development of each these input factors in turn.Net debt remains high in the peripheryOur key gauge of external sustainability derives from the net international investment position(NIIP)of a country as a share of GDP.A negative NIIP indicates that the rest of the world has anet financial claim
12、on the country as a whole.At the outset of Monetary Union,net debt in the periphery was relatively small.However,throughthe 2000s,the NIIP moved to around-100%of GDP across the periphery(with the notableexception of Italy).In contrast,Germany accumulated net assets of about 30ppt of GDP duringthis p
13、eriod.France saw its small net asset position(+15%of GDP)turn to a similar-sized smallnet debt position(Exhibit 1).See European Weekly Analyst 11/39:“Rebalancing:Current accounts and how to stabilise net debt”,November 17,2011,European Weekly Analyst 11/44:“Rebalancing:Current account adjustment and
14、 real exchange ratedepreciation”,December 21,2011 and European Economics Analyst 12/01:“Achieving fiscal and external balance(Part 1):The price adjustment for external sustainability”,March 15,2012.See European Economics Analyst 12/08”Can the Euro area adjust?”,May 10,2012.We use the Obsfeld-Rogoff
15、model framework.See European Weekly Analyst 11/44 for more details on thisframework.The NIIP is calculated as total financial assets minus total financial liabilities of both the private sector and the publicsector.The NIIP thus measures a countrys total net assets(or debt)vis-vis the rest of the wo
16、rld.高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究,5,5,3,2013 年 1 月 18 日Exhibit 1:Peripheral NIIPs deteriorated pre-crisisNet international investment position,%of GDP,European Economics AnalystExhibit 2:but have been broadly stable recentlyNet international investment position,%of GDP,45255-15-35-55-75-95,Q3 2001Q3 2005Q3 2009,45
17、255-15-35-55-75-95,4.33.9Q3 2012/last obs available,-115,GRC,IRE,ESP,PRT,ITA,GER,FRA,-115,GRC,IRE,ESP,PRT,ITA,GER,FRA,Source:Eurostat,National sources,IMF,Source:Eurostat,National sources,Since late 2010,there have been few changes to country net debt across the Euro area(Exhibit2).The largest chang
18、es have occurred in Greece and Portugal,which have seen their NIIP-to-GDP deteriorate by around 10ppt.This has been driven by sizeable current account deficits and,particularly in the case of Greece,declining nominal GDP.Valuation effects have also had animpact:the Greek NIIP scaled relative to 2012
19、 nominal GDP would have been close to 25pptworse absent valuation effects.The equivalent figure for Portugal is about a 10ppt of GDP.Thus,on the latest data,the NIIP-to-GDP starting position is about-110%in Portugal,around-100%in Greece,and between-90%and-95%in Ireland and Spain.Using our identifier
20、 for anexternal balance as an NIIP of+/-25%of GDP,the periphery faces a significant challenge toreduce its net debt.Italy and France(with NIIPs of around-20%),are in a better position,andneed only maintain a stable net asset position.Germany,with an NIIP of+40%of GDP,hasscope to accommodate the peri
21、pheral rebalancing by allowing its current account to deteriorateand thus reducing its net claims on other countries.Current accounts:Sharp improvement in the peripheryThe peripheral current accounts have improved sharply since late 2010.On the latest availabledata,Greece,Portugal,Spain and Italy ha
22、ve achieved current account balance,while Ireland isnow running a significant surplus(using our own seasonal adjustment and measured relative toGDP,Exhibits 3 and 4).The German current account is broadly unchanged,while the Frenchcurrent account has deteriorated slightly(Exhibit 5).However,part of t
23、he rapid current account improvement in the periphery(which began in 2009)reflects weak domestic demand that is likely to be cyclical and thus temporary.As theseeconomies recover,part of the improvement in their current accounts is likely to be unwound asdomestic demand(and,therefore,imports)recover
24、.For example,the improvement in the Greekcurrent account since late 2010 is close to 10ppt of GDP.But,once we account for the cyclicaldeterioration over this period,the underlying change falls on our calculations to around 6ppt.That said,this still implies that a substantial structural improvement h
25、as taken place across muchof the periphery(Exhibit 6).Valuation effects occur when prices of assets and liabilities change,as well as if defaults occur.We calculate thevaluation effect as the difference between the actual NIIP and what the NIIP would have been had it developed in linewith the curren
26、t account.For more details on valuation effects,see European Weekly Analyst:11/39.Note that theGreek PSI had relatively little impact on the NIIP,as much of the restructuring resulted in a shift of exposure ratherthan a reduction in net external debt.高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究,5,5,4,2013 年 1 月 18 日Exhibit 3:Gre
27、ek and Irish CAs have turned structurallyCurrent account,seasonally adjusted,%of GDP,European Economics AnalystExhibit 4:.as have the CAs of Portugal,Spain and ItalyCurrent account,seasonally adjusted,%of GDP,10,IrelandGreece,Ireland(cyc.adj.)Greece(cyc.adj.),10,SpainPortugalItaly,Spain(cyc.adj.)Por
28、tugal(cyc adj.)Italy(cyc.adj),0-5-10-15-20,0-5-10-15-20,00,01,02,03,04,05,06,07,08,09,10,11,12,00,01,02,03,04,05,06,07,08,09,10,11,12,Source:Eurostat,Nat.sources,GS Global ECS Research,Source:Eurostat,Nat.sources,GS Global ECS Research,reduces improvements required to achieve external balanceUsing t
29、he starting position of the NIIP and the latest adjusted current account data,we cancalculate the current account level required to achieve a sustainable NIIP.The differencebetween this targeted current account level and the most recently observed level of the cyclically-adjusted current account det
30、ermines the switch in external flows needed to secure a sustainableexternal stock position.These calculations assume that there are no changes to the relative value of the stock of financialassets and liabilities.However,in the normal period prior to the onset of the financial crisis in2008/09,the p
31、eriphery experienced significant negative valuation effects.Most recently,thevaluation effects appear to have been positive.We err on the side of caution and add the 2001-2007 yearly average valuation effect to the current account required for the periphery to move toa new normal,with sustainable ex
32、ternal net asset positions.,Exhibit 5:French CA continues to deteriorateCurrent account,seasonally adjusted,%of GDP10,Exhibit 6:CA has improved significantly in peripheryChg.in current account since 2010 Q3,%of GDP12,50,108,ActualCyc.Adj*,6-54,-10,Germany,2,-15-20,Germany(4qtr moving avg.)FranceFran
33、ce(4qtr moving avg.),0-2,00,01,02,03,04,05,06,07,08,09,10,11,12,GRC,IRE,ESP,PRT,ITA,GER,FRA,Source:Eurostat,Nat.sources,GS Global ECS Research,Source:Eurostat,Nat.sources,GS Global ECS Research*For Germany and,France,the cyclically-adjusted figure reflects a simple four quarter movingaverage.高盛全球经济、
34、商品和策略研究,25,20,15,1.0,0.9,0.8,0.7,6,6,5,2013 年 1 月 18 日Exhibit 7:Required CA improvement is now lowerRequired CA increase for|NIIP-to-GDP|25%in 20yr,%of GDP,European Economics AnalystExhibit 8:France has few tradeable goods and servicesShare of tradeables in GVA&services share of exports,Q3 2010Q3 20
35、11Q3 2012/last obs available,Share of tradable goods&services in GVAServices share,Q3 2001Q3 2005Q3 2009Q3 2012/last obs availableQ3 2001,1050,0.60.50.40.3,of exports,Q3 2012/last obs availableServicesGoods,0.2,-5-10,0.10.0,GRC,IRE,ESP,PRT,ITA,GER,FRA,GRC,IRE,ESP,PRT,ITA,GER,FRA,Source:Eurostat,Nat.
36、sources,GS Global ECS Research,Source:Eurostat,Nat.sources,GS Global ECS Research,Accounting for these valuation effects,as of end-2010,and thus reflected in our originalcalculations,Greece required a current account improvement of around 15ppt-20ppt of GDP,Portugal and Spain needed an improvement o
37、f around 10ppt-15ppt,while Italy required one ofabout a 5ppt of GDP.Frances required improvement was small,at around 2ppt.The Germanaccount needed to deteriorate by about 5ppt of GDP to achieve balance.Ireland was alreadyclose to balance(Exhibit 7).On the most recent data,the required switch in the
38、Greek and Portuguese current account hasfallen by around 5ppt-7ppt of GDP.Spain and Italys current account rebalancing challenge hasdeclined by about 2ppt of GDP(Exhibit 7).The German figure is unchanged,whereas Ireland which was in balance has become morelike Germany and has a surplus,at least judg
39、ing by the most recent data(Exhibit 7).France stands out as the only deficit country in our sample where the required improvement in thecurrent account has not fallen.On our calculations,France needs an improvement of around3ppt-4ppt of GDP in the current account,marginally more than in in 2010(Exhi
40、bit 7).Structural factors matter for the required price adjustmentFor these current account switches to materialise,a real exchange rate depreciation is required(we assume that the supply side of the economy is fixed and abstract from cyclical factors inthese calculations).For the current account to
41、 improve,each of the peripheral countries needs toreduce its demand for tradeable goods and services,while the rest of the world needs to increasethe demand for tradeables.For such a switch to occur,the relative price of non-tradeables in theperiphery needs to decline,while the relative price of non
42、-tradeables in the rest of world needs toincrease.In addition,such demand shifts would affect the terms-of-trade in the periphery(although these effects are relatively small given the peripherys small size relative to the globalWithin tradeables,a home bias likely exists(reflecting relative preferen
43、ce or trade costs).With a bias for hometradeables,a decline in home demand falls more heavily on home produced tradeables,thus adding downwardpressure on the price of home tradeables relative to foreign tradeables.This adds to the adjustment need of thecurrent account.For a higher degree of substitu
44、tion between home and foreign tradeables,the terms of trade effect issmaller.We use our own estimate of elasticity of the between-country elasticity of substitution of tradeables(seeEuropean Economics Analyst 12/01).Our calculated terms-of-trade effect exacerbates the real exchange rateadjustment by
45、 a relatively modest 1ppt-3ppt across the countries included in our calculations.高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究,7,8,7,8,6,2013 年 1 月 18 日,European Economics Analyst,economy).Together,this implies that the periphery requires a real exchange rate depreciation.Absent a flexible exchange rate,this depreciation requires
46、 an internal devaluation in the periphery.Mapping the required size of the switch in the current account into relative price changes dependson a range on structural factors.These factors have the potential to alter the relative ranking interms of which country is facing the largest rebalancing chall
47、enge.In our calculation the keyparameters are:The size of the countrys share of tradeables in production.The larger the shareof tradeables in production,the larger the share of the economy that is able to bear theadjustment,and thus the smaller the required real exchange rate change.We employ abroad
48、 definition of tradeables,that accounts for tradeable goods and tradeableservices.Accounting for both tradeable goods and tradeable services,Ireland has the highesttradeables share(at around 50%),Germany and Greece has a share of just above 30%,Spain and Portugals is just below 30%,and Italys share
49、is about 25%.At 17%,Francehas the lowest share of tradeables in production(Exhibit 8).Over the past decade,tradeables share of production has declined by about 10ppt inGreece and Spain,and roughly about 5ppt in Italy and France.But since end-2010,tradeables share of production has ticked up by 2ppt-
50、3ppt in Germany,Portugal,Greece and Spain,and by as much as 7ppt in Ireland.No meaningful change to thisshare has occurred in Italy and France(Exhibit 8).The share of non-tradeables in consumption.The higher this share,the larger therequired price adjustment to induce a given shift in the relative c
