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1、,ke.co.id,1,2,3,4,5,1,2,3,4,5,Indonesia1 November 2012Insight IndonesiaOctober 2012,KE Indonesia ResearchResearchmaybank-ke.co.idP:(62 21)2557 1131 32F:(62 21)2557 1186Head of ResearchKatarina SetiawanKatarina.setiawanmaybank-AnalystsLucky Ariesandi,CFALucky.ariesandimaybank-ke.co.idRahmi MarinaRahm
2、i.marinamaybank-ke.co.idPandu ANUGRAHPandu.anugrahmaybank-ke.co.idAdi N.WicaksonoAdi.wicaksonomaybank-ke.co.idAnthony YunusAnthony.yunusmaybank-ke.co.idArwani PranadjayaArwani.pranadjayamaybank-ke.co.idResearch supportsLilitaLilitamaybank-ke.co.idDarajat KurniawanDarajat.kurniawanmaybank-ke.co.idTop
3、 LQ 45,MARKET ROUND-UPJCI went up2.1%MoM in October to its highest end-of-month closing of4350,thanks to strong result from some of the blue chip stocks likeTelkom and Perusahaan Gas,and generally in-line performance frommajor banks.The hype over low cost green cars(LCGC)also helpedmarket bellwether
4、 Astra Internasional to drive the index higher.Asidefrom earnings announcement,the market has been quiet,which explainsthe 1%MoM drop in daily trading value to IDR4.54tAuto and miscellaneous industry was the best performing sector last month(+6.5%MoM)thanks to strong early demand for LCGC,followed b
5、yinfrastructure(+5.7%).In contrast,we have seen capitulation oncommodity-related theme,with mining(-6.3%)and agribusiness(-5.0%)the two worst performing sectors.Intraco Penta,a heavy equipmentsupplier,was the worst performing stock(-17.5%MoM)due to prolongedweakness in coal price which was bearish f
6、or earth-moving equipmentsector.Other top losers were coal names like Bumi Resources(-9.6%)due to dispute in the boardroom of its major shareholder Bumi Plc,andAdaro and Harum Energy due to falling coal price.Sector return,No.,1-mo top gainersTrada MaritimeBakrieland DevAlam SuteraBorneo LumbungPeru
7、sahaan Gas N,(%)23.420.417.214.812.7,3-mo top gainersBhakti InvestamaKalbe FarmaAlam SuteraBorneo LumbungPerusahaan Gas N,(%)35.826.826.124.022.4,1-monthAuto&Miscl.IndustryInfrastructureCement&basic IndustryPropertyConsumer,(%)6.55.74.53.22.9,3-monthAuto&Miscl.IndustryInfrastructurePropertyTradeCeme
8、nt&basic Industry,(%)11.511.210.86.25.8,Finance,1.2,Consumer,4.3,No.,1-month top loser,3-month top loser,Trade,1.1,Finance,3.1,Intraco PentaBumi Resources,(17.5)(9.6),Bumi ResourcesIntraco Penta,(36.5)(25.7),AgribusinessMining,(5.3)(6.3),MiningAgribusiness,(5.0)(9.3),Adaro EnergyHarum EnergyVale Ind
9、onesia,(8.7)(8.5)(8.5),Energi MegaLondon SumateraGudang Garam,(24.2)(15.5)(12.8),Source:BloombergSEE APPENDIX I FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS,Insight Indonesia,ECONOMIC SNAPSHOTInflation in October 2012 came at 0.16%,bringing10M12 CPI to 3.66%.CPI climbed 4.59%on ayearly basis
10、.Major contributors to the rising pricelevel were prepared food(0.38%),housing,fueland utilities(0.42%)and clothing(0.94%).Deflationwas recorded in food stuffs(-0.43%).Export in September rose 13.2%MoM toUSD15.9b,bringing 9M12 export to USD143b,6.1%YoY lower than that in 9M11.Meanwhile,import rose 1
11、1.1%MoM to USD15.4b,taking 9M12import volume to USD142b(+9.2%YoY).Import forcapital goods rose the most(+23.9%YoY)withimport for consumption goods inched up just 0.6%YoY.1 November 2012,CORPORATE HIGHLIGHTSAUTOMOTIVEBuoyed by recovery after the Ramadan holiday inAugust and annual event of Internatio
12、nalIndonesian Automotive Show(IIMS),domestic carsales volume in September grew 33.7%MoM,bringing 9M12 salse volume to 816k units,up23.7%YoY.Motorcycle sales grew at robust rate of45%MoM to 621K units,translating to continuedweak YTD sales volume decline of 14%YoY to5.3m units.The government is set t
13、o issue new regulation onlow carbon emission cars.The draft has beensubmitted by the Ministry of Finance and is beingreviewed by the State Secretary,which will beissued in the form of Presidential Decree.The newregulation requires 20l/km regular gasolineconsumption,while for hybrid/electricity carsg
14、asoline consumption is set higher at 28l/km.Interms of tax incentive,the rule is that the higher thegasoline consumption per kilometer,the lower theluxury tax.Additionally,all the principals whoparticipate in this Low Costs Green Cars(LCGC)program would need to own manufacturing facilityin Indonesia
15、 with local content of 40%.The newregulation on cheap cars will create new segmentin the domestic automotive industry and pave theway for higher penetration to the low-mid incomecustomers.Price differential with and without taxincentive is around 10%.Astra International(ASII.IJ):Despite seasonallyfl
16、at 3Q12 earnings of IDR5t(-1.6%QoQ),AstraInternationals(ASII)9M12 net profit of IDR14.6t(+8.8%YoY)is on track to reach our full-yearforecast.Flat 3Q12 earnings stemmed from lowersales volume in the automotive division and weakKomatsu sales volume.On a more positive note,the palm oil division reporte
17、d a positive quarterlygrowth.On the operating front,3Q12 operatingmargin expanded to 11.1%from 10.8%on the backof higher profitability from the mining contractingbusiness unit and plantation divisions.This resultedin flat 3Q12 operating profit of IDR5.3t(-1.5%QoQ),translating to 9M12 operating profi
18、t ofIDR15.2t(+14.5%YoY).3Q12 revenue fell 4.7%YoY,but gross profit decreased at milder rate of1.2%QoQ to IDR9.4t.BANKINGBank Indonesia kept the benchmark rateunchanged at 5.75%as it is considered to beconsistent with inflation forecast of 4.5%+1%thisyear.Starting October 8th,multifinance companies a
19、resubject to the new fiduciary regulation PMK No.Page 2 of 16,2012.,Insight Indonesia,130/2012.According to this new policy,multifinance companies will have to registerfiduciary certificates with the Law and HumanRights Ministry no later than thirty days afterfinancing agreements are signed.And in t
20、he caseof customers failing to repay their loans,multifinance companies are prohibited fromrepossessing assets from customers without thepresence of the abovementioned fiduciarycertificates.Indonesia Credit Card Association(AKKI)estimated 4 million credit cards will be closed onthe implementation of
21、 Bank Indonesia regulation,mortgage scheme,which is expected to supportnext years expansion.Bank Danamon(BDMN.IJ)posted IDR3t net profitin 9M12.Although slowing down,car andmotorcycle financing is still the biggest supporterfor Danamons loan book which grew 16.2%YoY toIDR113t in 9M12.Following the t
22、rend in theautomotive market after the implementation ofhigher down payment back in June 15th,Danamonanticipates this portion of financing from Adira todrop from currently 40%to 33%of total portfolio.Tocompensate,the bank will focus in expanding itswholesale business as well as its retail product,No
23、.14/2/PBI/2012.The process,however,will not,Danamon Simpan Pinjam.,The bank has yet,be immediate as banks are given 2 years transitionperiod to adjust to the abovementioned policy thatwill be effective January 2013.Bank Negara Indonesia(BBNI.IJ)purchased15mn shares of BNI Life Insurance atIDR6,100/s
24、hare from a related party minorityshareholder.The internally funded IDR93btransaction will increase BNIs ownership in theinsurance subsidiary by 8.5%to now 99.9%.BNI posted IDR5t net profit in 9M12.Its 13%YTDloan growth to IDR184t is on track with the banksFY12 goal of 18-20%YoY.What still behind ta
25、rgetis deposit growth,which by 9M12 has only reached3%YTD vs.FY12 13-15%YoY.The bank,however,remain optimistic that deposit willincrease towards the year-end supported bytemporary placement from the government.Therewill be no change in loan recovery target of IDR1.6-1.9t for this year,as BNI expects
26、 the new change inwritten-off loans treatment for state-owned banks tobe executable in 1Q13,at the earliest.Bank Tabungan Negara(BBTN.IJ)will sell 1.5bshares in a secondary offering scheduled forNovember 2012,with ratio 555,000 old:94,943new shares.The offering price range is IDR1,000-1,400 per shar
27、e.This implies total proceeds ofIDR1.5-2.1t,which will be used to support creditexpansion.Bahana Securities,Danareksa,andMandiri Sekuritas will act as the standby buyers.This corporate action is subject to shareholdersapproval on an EGM scheduled for November 7thBTN posted IDR1t net profit in 9M12.W
28、ith CARestimated to increase by 200-300bp following itsupcoming rights issue,the bank is targeting another26-27%loan growth in 2013,on top of the 29%booked in 9M12 to IDR77t.The current accountand savings account portion of BTNs deposit bookincreasing by 2%to 43%in the past three months,which result
29、ed in lower CoF.This is one of thedrivers of an increase in BTNs NIM to 6%in 9M12.The bank is looking forward to a moreaccommodative regulation in the subsidized1 November 2012,to see the effect from the latest fiduciaryrequirement from MoF which took effect in October7th.However,additional notary f
30、ee and registrationfee are expected.Bank Pembangunan Daerah Jabar(BJBR.IJ)posted IDR945b net profit in 9M12.As expected,the bank managed to further expand its loan book,reaching 23%YTD to IDR35t.The majority of itsportfolio was still in consumer lending,whichexplains the above average NIM for the ba
31、nk of7.1%in 9M12.Expansions outside West Java andBanten area were still focused in deposit raising.This caused LDR to remain below the 78%minimum limit suggested by Bank Indonesia.Butfor BJB,this also means that further loan growthmight not need to be done at the cost of higherCoF.Bank Central Asia(
32、BBCA.IJ)posted IDR8.3t netprofit in 9M12.The result came below our estimatedue to higher-than-expected provisioning expense.In the past couple of quarters the amount werebalanced by loan reversal,leaving a nearly zero netprovision.However,in 3Q12 BCA increased theexpense,making the ratio of provisio
33、n over totalloan closer to its comfortable level of 2%.Loangrew 20%YTD,on track to meet the FY12 target of25%YoY.While NPL was maintained at a very lowrate of 0.4%.Bank Mandiri(BMRI.IJ)booked IDR11.1t net profitin 9M12.Robust loan growth,higher bond yield,aswell as declining CoF are the factors cont
34、ributing toa nearly 200bp jump in NIM to 5.6%.In 4Q12,however,Mandiri is expecting in increase in CoF asthe bank aims to grow its time deposit book to helplowering LDR from current level of 82%.Thisstrategy might bring the FY12 NIM more inline withits internal target of 5.3%.Bank Rakyat Indonesia(BB
35、RI.IJ)postedIDR13.2t net profit.Loan grew 12%YTD,on trackto meet FY12 forecast of 17%YoY growth.There was a steep jump in other operating incomewhich came from insurance claim that BRI receivedPage 3 of 16,Insight Indonesia,from extending micro loans(KUR).On theexpenses side,an increase in personnel
36、 expensewas driven by higher base salary as well as severalcompensation schemes.BASE METALAntam(ANTM IJ)posted 9M12 net profit ofIDR628b,representing a 60%YoY drop from 9M11figure.Ferronickel production dropped 11%YoY to13.3k tonnes with sales volume came 12%YoYlower.Meanwhile,ASP fell 29%YoY to USD
37、7.7/lb.Timah(TINS IJ)announced 57%YoY drop in9M12 net profit to IDR370b.Revenue also fell 12%YoY to IDR6.0t due to 24%YoY decline in ASP.Production fell by 18%YoY to 23.2k tonnes butsales volume was increasing by 7%YoY as thecompany sold down its inventories.Vale Indonesia(INCO IJ)s 9M12 net profitp
38、lunged 91%YoY to USD29m with revenuedropping by 31%YoY due to falling nickel price.ASP came 29%YoY lower at USD13.7k/tonnewhile sales volume was a tad lower(-1%YoY)at50.6k tonnes.CEMENTDomestic cement consumption in September 2012increased by 34.4%YoY to 5.2m tonnes,bringing9M12 volume to 39.5m tonn
39、es(+15.0%YoY).According to the Indonesia Cement Association,demand for the month jumped by 43.4%MoM to5.2m tonnes from 3.6m tonnes in August,buoyedby adjusted daily production of 207k tonnes(+23.6%YoY).The 9M12 cement consumptionaccounted for 75%of our FY12 estimate of 53mtonnes.Semen Gresik(SMGR.IJ
40、)plans to issue USD-denominated bond for business expansion.Thecompany is currently studying the amount neededfor the expansion.It estimates around USD900mwill be required to support its three-year businessexpansion.Around 40%will be allocated frominternal cash,whereas 60%from bond issuance.Semen Gr
41、esiks 9M12 net profit rose by 23%YoYand 18%QoQ,on the back of strong domesticsales volume(+14%YoY,+5%QoQ).CONSTRUCTIONAdhi Karya(ADHI.IJ)posted a 9M12 net profit ofIDR88b,jumped by 190%YoY compare toIDR30.3b a year ago,mainly supported by higherorder book.As of 9M12,the company acquiredIDR7.9t of or
42、der book,translating to 58.5%of its FYtarget.PT Pembangunan Perumahan(PTPP.IJ)plans toissue bond amounting to IDR600b in 1Q13.The1 November 2012,proceeds will be used to finance construction andEPC projects.As of 9M12,the company hasacquired IDR15.2t order book,reaching 90.5%ofFY target.Moreover,PTP
43、P has also won thetender of New Priok Port project worth IDR8.2t.Wijaya Karya(WIKA.IJ)posted a 31%YoY jumpin 9M12 net profit to IDR283b,thanks to revenuegrowth of 17%YoY and a decline in operatingexpenses.On a quarterly basis,topline edged up3%and bottomline,15%.COALIndonesia Coalminer Association s
44、aid that around10%of small IUP holders have stopped operatingas coal price is below their marginal cost ofproduction.The phenomenon is especiallyapparent among producers of low CV coals(5,500kcal/kg)Borneo Lumbung(BORN IJ)lowered its coalproduction target for 2012 to 4.35m tonnes from4.6m tonnes pre
45、viously.In separate news,Standard Chartered,the bank who bankrolledBorneos acquisition of Bumi Plcs stake,has soldaround USD230m out of USD1b total loan toBorneo.Adaro Energy(ADRO IJ):J-Power and ItochuCorp,Adaro Energys partner in the 2x1000 MWpower plant project in Central Java,expect 12months del
46、ay in the project due to extendedenvironmental assessment and protests by localresidents.Adaro owns 34%stake in the project.Scheduled completion is now at 2017.Adaro alsoreported 9M12 net profit of USD348m,7%YoYlower on the back of 6%YoY lower revenue(USD2.75b).The government announced that domestic
47、 coalobligation(DMO)for 2013 is 74.3m tonnes,9.4%YoY lower compared to 2012 DMO of 82.1mtonnes due to delay in the completion of 10k MWprogram.The government expect that the first 10kMW program to be completed in 2014,with around65%completion by end of 2012.Harum Energy(HRUM.IJ)posted 9M12 net profi
48、tof USD125m,slightly higher than 9M11 net profit ofUSD124m.The company was able to increaserevenues by 42%YoY to USD835m thanks to 54%YoY higher sales volume on the back of higher thirdparty purchases.Bukit Asam(PTBA IJ)announced 3Q12 net profitof IDR640b,bringing cumulative 9M12 net profit toIDR2.2
49、0t,5%YoY lower compared tocorresponding figure last year.On a quarterlybasis,net profit fell 7%QoQ due to higherproduction and operating costs.Production volumerose 18%YoY to 12m tonnes.Page 4 of 16,Insight Indonesia,CONSUMERGudang Garam(GGRM.IJ)reported 9M12 netprofit of IDR3,006b,down 21%YoY.Reven
50、ue wasup 16%YoY to IDR35,599b while costs of goodssold were up 26%YoY and SG&A came in flat.Asa result,gross margin declined 11%YoY toIDR6,702 while gross margin plummeted to 18.8%in 9M12 from 24.7%in 9M11.In addition,EBITcame in 16%YoY lower while EBIT margindropped to 12.3%from 17.1%in 9M11.Main r
