《中国保险：一季度压力仍在；全或温和走高；首选新华保险H和平安A强力买入(摘要)0118.ppt》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《中国保险：一季度压力仍在；全或温和走高；首选新华保险H和平安A强力买入(摘要)0118.ppt（26页珍藏版）》请在三一办公上搜索。
1、,2012 年 1 月 18 日中国：保险证券研究报告一季度压力仍在；全年或温和走高；首选新华保险 H 和平安 A，强力买入(摘要)流动性紧张和理财产品收益率高企仍将令保险企业在 2012 年一季度面临,一定挑战,调整评级和目标价格,受保费收入增长和 A 股权益类投资回报率这两大推动因素的影响，中国寿险股自2008 年 1 月份以来一直与 M2/流动性高度相关。我们预计今年一季度流动性仍会,Rating changeStock Oldrating rating,Revised arget price12-mon PotentialPrice upside/target downside,Adj
2、usted by,相对紧张（尽管好于去年三/四季度），而且银行理财产品收益率仍保持在 4.5%,H-share insurers(HK$)China Life(H)Neutral,Buy,22.7,13%,-2%,左右，直至二季度央行更果断地下调存款准备金率。根据我们业内调研的情况，,Ping An(H),Buy,Buy,68.9,31%,0%,寿险业代理人渠道开门红略好于预期，主要是由于部分公司（如平安）提升了短期期缴产品的佣金率水平以刺激销售，但银保渠道增长仍面临较大压力。我们预,CPIC(H)NCI(H)PICC(H),Neutral NeutralBuy*(initiation)Neu
3、tral Neutral,28.042.211.8,23%68%22%,0%-9%,计 2012 年全年的首年保费收入平均增长 12%，略低于 14%的 M2 增速。,A-share insurers(Rmb),China Life(A)Ping An(A),NeutralBuy*,BuyBuy,19.258.2,7%61%,-2%0%,.但我们预计二季度货币状况的逐步放松将在随后带来温和上行空间,CPIC(A)NCI(A),Neutral BuyNeutral(initiation),23.635.6,18%26%,0%,我们预计央行将在 CPI 降至 4%以下后更积极地下调存款准备金率，而
4、且 M2 增速有望在下半年逐渐反弹至 14%，这应该会推动保险企业的保费收入和 A 股权益,重要信息披露请参见 http:/,类投资回报率温和地加速增长。调整预测,拥有较高的新业务价值增长、低估值和稳健偿付能力充足率的个股有望表现出众：新华保险 H 和平安 A 处于有利地位，均位于强力买入名单,2011EPrior Revised,EVgrowthrate2012EPrior Revised,2013EPrior Revised,尽管存在一些短期不确定因素，但考虑到下半年政策将逐步温和放松，我们预计那些因拥有较高新业务价值增长、低估值以及合理偿付能力充足率从而足以支撑至少两年增长的个股或有出众
5、表现：(1)我们对新华保险 H 的首次评级为买入,HshareChinaLife(H)PingAn(H)CPIC(H)Average,2%10%1%3%,3%8%0%2%,12%12%10%12%,12%13%12%12%,9%8%11%9%,9%9%12%10%,（位于强力买入名单），因为我们认为该公司 2012/2013 年有望通过销售高利润率的传统健康险产品、增开新网点以及增加代理人而实现高于同业的新业务价值,2011E,NBVgrowthrate2012E,2013E,增长。此外，新华保险 H 股当前估值颇具吸引力，股价对应 1 倍的 2012 年预期内含价值，而预计今明两年的内含价值
6、同比增幅约为 15%。(2)我们将买入评级,HshareChinaLife(H),Prior Revised3%2%,Prior Revised9%8%,Prior Revised13%10%,的平安 A 加入亚太强力买入名单，因其估值具吸引力、拥有优质的寿险及财险业务同时管理稳健。我们的估算显示，中国人寿、中国平安和新华保险仍有足够的,PingAn(H)CPIC(H)Average,8%12%8%,6%10%5%,13%15%12%,13%13%11%,15%15%14%,15%15%13%,空间发行次级债来支撑其在至少未来两年里实现良好增长。微调 2011-2013 年预测，因估值原因将中
7、国人寿 A/H 和中国太保 A 的评级从买入下调至中性我们微调了 2011 年预测，以体现四季度疲弱的保费收入和 A 股下滑的影响。我们将 2011-2013 年每股盈利预测平均调整了-7%至+1%，将 12 个月目标价格调整了-9%至 0%。我们将中国人寿 A/H 和中国太保 A 的评级从买入下调至中性，主要因其估值上行空间小于同业。我们将人保财险 2012/2013 年盈利预测下调了2.5%/7.3%，因我们将其综合成本率上调了 0.3%/0.6%（车险领域竞争升温导致该业务亏损扩大）。我们维持对该股的中性评级。*全文翻译随后提供,资料来源：高华证券研究相关研究新华保险(1336.HK)买
8、入：新业务价值增长高于同业/风险回报有吸引力；首次覆盖,强力买入,2012 年 1 月 18 日,赵慧颖 执业证书编号:S1420511010003+86(10)6627-3463 北京高华证券有限责任公司马宁 执业证书编号:S1420510120014+86(10)6627-3063 北京高华证券有限责任公司北京高华证券有限责任公司,北京高华证券有限责任公司及其关联机构与其研究报告所分析的企业存在业务关系，并且继续寻求发展这些关系。因此，投资者应当考虑到本公司可能存在可能影响本报告客观性的利益冲突，不应视本报告为作出投资决策的唯一因素。有关分析师的申明和其他重要信息，见信息披露附录，或请与您
9、的投资代表联系。投资研究,2,5,11,13,16,19,22,2,2012 年 1 月 18 日Table of contentsDifficult 1Q,but gradual loosening to drive modest upside in 2012Top picks:NCI H and Ping An A(both on Buy,CL)NCI(1336.HK):Above-peer NBV growth,attractive risk/reward;initiate with Buy,CLPing An A(601318.SS,Buy):Add to Conviction Lis
10、tChina Life(2628.HK/601628.SS):Downgrade to Neutral from BuyCPIC A(601601.SS):Downgrade to Neutral from BuyPICC(2328.HK,Neutral):Lower 2012E/2013E earnings estimatesDisclosure Appendix,中国：保险25,The prices in the body of this report are based on the market close of January16,2012.Difficult 1Q,but grad
11、ual loosening to drive modest upside in 2012Over the past 12 months to January 16,Chinas H-share insurers share prices have declined byan average of 33%,underperforming the H-share index by 13%.Over the same period,ChinasA-share insurers have declined by an average of 21%,beating the A-share index b
12、y a modest3%(mainly due to their relatively low valuations vs.the H-share stocks to begin with).We believethe key stock drivers NBV/premium growth and A-share investment returns have come underpressure:NBV/premium growth:Macroeconomic tightening and new bancassurance rules havecaused a slowdown in f
13、irst year premium(FYP)growth in both agent andbancassurance channels,despite broad new business margin(NBM)improvements inagent channels on more regular products.A-share index slump,which negatively affects insurers investment returns and solvencymargin ratios.Although the bond price rally in 4Q11 e
14、ases some concerns over solvency margin ratios,we believe A-share returns are likely to remain a key driver of overall investment returnsin 2012.Exhibit 1:China H/A-share prices declined due to slower premium/FYP growth and weakA-shares that put pressure on overall A-share investment returns and sol
15、vency margins,Ticker,Bloomberg,Name,Price,Absolute Price Performance(%),Relative Price Perf.to Benchmark(%),Mkt cap,Code,16-Jan-12,1-wk 1-mo 3-mo,YTD,1-yr,1-wk,1-mo 3-mo,YTD,1-yr,USD Mn,China H-share banks(HKD)China A-share banks(CNY)China brokers(CNY,HKD)China A-shr insurance(CNY)China H-shr insura
16、nce(HKD),5.5(0.1)(0.2)2.1(1.2),93(5)4(6),272(15)3(10),83(0)3(4),(16)(8)(29)(21)(33),4113(3),46(4)6(10),2415(5)16(16),54(0)3(7),419(4)6(13),601628.SS 601628 CH China Life Insurance Company(A)601601.SS 601601 CH China Pacific Insurance(A)601318.SS 601318 CH Ping An Insurance Group(A)Average,17.8119.85
17、35.59,3.10.62.52.1,66(1)4,111(2)3,1333,(17)(14)(32)(21),4243,9926,24141116,2443,1012(5)6,79,82027,06841,450,2628.HK2601.HK2328.HK2318.HK0966.HK,2628 HK2601 HK2328 HK2318 HK966 HK,China Life Insurance CompanyChina Pacific Insurance(H)PICC Property and Casualty CompanyPing An Insurance GroupChina Taip
18、ing Insurance Holdings,19.3821.859.6651.3512.90,2.0(0.7)(4.9)2.0(4.4),12(12)(6)(14),(5)(13)(6)(4)(24),1(1)(8)0(10),(40)(36)(7)(39)(45),1(2)(6)1(6),(3)(2)(16)(10)(18),(10)(19)(11)(9)(29),(3)(5)(12)(3)(14),(19)(15)14(18)(24),70,51124,18814,53148,5502,847,AverageLife insurance,(1.2)(0.3),(6)(4),(10)(12
19、),(4)(3),(33)(40),(3)(2),(10)(8),(16)(17),(7)(6),(13)(19),Source:Bloomberg,Gao Hua Securities Research.高华证券投资研究,Jul08,Jul09,Jul10,Mar08,Mar09,Mar10,Mar11,Jul11,Nov10,Nov09,May08,May09,May10,May11,Nov08,Nov11,Jan11,Sep08,Sep09,Sep10,Sep11,Jan08,Jan09,Jan10,Jan08,May08,Jan09,May09,Jan10,May10,Jan11,Ma
20、y11,Mar08,Jul08,Mar09,Jul09,Mar10,Jul10,Mar11,Sep08,Nov08,Sep09,Nov09,Sep10,Nov10,Jul11,Sep11,Nov11,3,2012 年 1 月 18 日,中国：保险In this note,we update our 2012 sector outlook/positioning,and highlight the following keytrends:2012 is still a year of monetary policy normalization with M2/loan growth target
21、s ofabout 14%yoy,a modest rather than sharp loosening from the low of M2 growth inOctober/November of 12.5%-13%yoy.1Q12 remains challenging given still tight liquidity and high wealth managementproduct yields.While the worst of monetary tightening passed in 4Q11,we expect 1Q12 liquidity toremain tig
22、ht until the Peoples Bank of China(PBOC)moves decisively to cut therequired reserve ratio(RRR)potentially in 2Q12,once inflation slows to below 4%.Noticeably,the yield on banks wealth management products a key competitor for lifeinsurers major saving-type products with expected long-term returns of
23、about 4%remains at about 5%.We believe this will make it difficult for insurers to sell saving typelife insurance products.Moreover,increased scrutiny of interbank entrusted payments(IEP,or“Dai Fu”inChinese,similar to domestic L/C business)in 1Q12 may also add a level of uncertaintyover sector liqui
24、dity,until the PBOC cuts RRR more decisively when CPI/GDP growthslows.We expect agent channel FYP growth to record positive yoy growth in 1Q12 becausemost life insurers,such as Ping An and CPIC,have devoted more money and time topromote the sale of 5-year/3-year regular products and paid higher comm
25、ission rates totheir agents in January so that they could achieve a good start to the year.We feel thatbancassurance FYP growth is likely to remain sluggish in 1Q12 as bancassurancechannel sales are more affected by banks liquidity situation.,Exhibit 2:Life insurance premium growth showed ahistorica
26、lly strong correlation with M2 growthM2growthvs.lifeinsurancepremiumgrowth,Exhibit 3:A-share equity investment return is also likelyto be driven by gradually improving liquidity conditionespecially in 2H12M2growthvs.CSI300indexperformance,100%80%,35%30%,50004500,35%30%,4000,60%40%20%0%20%40%,Lifeins
27、urancepremiummonthlyyoygrowthrate(LHS),25%20%15%10%5%0%M2monthlyyoygrowth(RHS),3500300025002000150010005000,CSI300,M2monthlyyoygrowth(RHS),25%20%15%10%5%0%,Source:CEIC,Gao Hua Securities Research.高华证券投资研究,Source:CEIC,Gao Hua Securities Research.,Apr-07,Apr-08,Apr-09,Jan-07,Apr-10,Jan-08,Apr-11,Jan-0
28、9,Jan-10,Jan-11,Jan-12,Jul-07,Jul-08,Jul-09,Jul-10,Oct-07,Oct-08,Oct-09,Oct-10,Jul-11,Oct-11,14,4,2012 年 1 月 18 日Exhibit 4:Chinas financial conditions remain tight in1Q12:3m interbank rate monthly average remains high,中国：保险Exhibit 5:Chinas financial conditions remain tight in1Q12:Bill discount rates
29、 remain high at 7%,7.06.05.0,3m interbank rate monthly average%,1210,Bill discount rate,4.083.062.041.0,-,20,3m interbank rate monthly average,Average since 04,2007/03/16,2008/03/16,2009/03/16Bill discount rate,2010/03/16Average since 07,2011/03/16,Source:CEIC,Gao Hua Securities Research.Exhibit 6:N
30、umber of banks wealth managementproducts issued remain highNumber of banks wealth managementproducts issued(2011),Source:CEIC,Gao Hua Securities Research.Exhibit 7:Yield of banks 3-month wealth managementproducts remain over 5%,which may impact insuranceFYP growthAverage yields of 3-month wealth man
31、agementproducts issued by listed banks,2600240022002000,5.5%5.0%4.5%4.0%,Life insurers policy funding costs,5.2%,3.5%18003.0%16002.5%,140012001000,2.0%,Jan,Feb,Mar,Apr May Jun,Jul,Aug Sep,Oct,Nov Dec,Source:CEIC,Gao Hua Securities Research.,Source:CEIC,Gao Hua Securities Research.,We expect a gradua
32、l loosening after 2Q12 to drive modest upside in FY12.We believe the PBOCs reluctance to cut RRR proactively now is because:(1)CPIinflation remains above 4%,and the PBOC is concerned about a potential rebound inCPI if it relaxes liquidity restrictions too quickly and(2)real economic growth andunempl
33、oyment levels have not been that badly affected at this point in time.However,should the CPI continue to decline from 4.1%in December 2011 and theeconomy show signs that it is also continuing to slowdown,then we believe the PBOCmay speed up its easing measures in 2Q12 including cutting RRR more deci
34、sivelyto achieve its FY12E M2 growth target of 14%yoy.As such,we expect some reacceleration in premium growth and forecast a likelyrebound in the A-share market in late 2Q12 to drive modest share price gains forChinas insurance sectors in the second half of the year.高华证券投资研究,5,2012 年 1 月 18 日,中国：保险,
35、Tax deferral corporate pension initiative in Shanghai will be a significant positivecatalyst for the sector,but it is difficult to judge when this will happen,givenuncertainty over the timing of the approval by the Ministry of Finance and NationalTax Bureau.We believe approval may come from the Stat
36、e Council as one of the measures tostimulate consumption although the timing remains uncertain.Although ChinaInsurance Regulatory Commission(CIRC)reiterated its commitment to push for theadoption of income tax deferral corporate pension insurance pilot program in Shanghai,in 2012,it is difficult to
37、determine the position of the Ministry of Finance and National TaxBureau,as we believe a slowdown in the economy,as well as land sales,may imposesome challenges in regard to tax collection for both central and local governments.We have not factored this tax deferral corporate pension initiative into
38、 our model orvaluation.Top picks:NCI H and Ping An A(both on Buy,CL)The key question for investors is how to navigate uncertainties over the next 3-6 months,whilecapturing the potential upturn in 2H12.As such,we believe that insurers with above peer NBV growth,and low valuations toprotect against po
39、tential downside risks,are more likely to outperform in 2012.Moreover,those insurers that we rate Buy should have sufficient solvency margin ratios tosupport their business over the next two years,and good A-share sensitivity as an option forpotential upside when A-share markets start to rally when
40、liquidity and corporate earnings startsto accelerate.Exhibit 8 summarizes the comparison of NBV growth,current valuation vs.historical valuations,investment and sensitivity to A-shares,solvency margin outlook,and downside risks forbancassurance FYP growth.Our top picks are NCI H-shares(we have initi
41、ated coverage with a Buy,on CL),Ping An A-shares(Buy,add to CL),and Buy-rated Ping An H-shares,for the following reasons:1)NBV growth:NCI is likely to achieve above-peer NBV growth of 19%/19%in 2012E/2013E vs.the sector average of 13%/15%,given its many“low-hanging fruit”and key growth drivers,namel
42、y:its ability to sell more high-margin health insurance products to improve NBM,addingnew branches/agents after improving solvency margin ratios,and developing new channels andnew businesses.Moreover,NCIs yoy FYP growth in 1H12 may rebound due to its lower base in1H11.Moreover,as NCIs 2012E NBV/EV r
43、atio of 9%is the highest among the listed insurers andabove the average of 7%(Exhibit 11),NCIs EV growth rate could be higher than its peers.高华证券投资研究,6,2012 年 1 月 18 日,中国：保险,Exhibit 8:Our top picks:Buy-rated NCI H(on CL)and Ping An A/H show good NBV growth potential/valuation upside,ChinaLife,PingAn
44、,CPIC,NCI,Taiping,Average,Whoisbestpositioned,I.NBVgrowth,NBVyoygrowthrate(11E)NBVyoygrowthrate(12E)NBVyoygrowthrate(13E),1.7%8.2%10.0%,5.9%12.9%14.6%,9.9%12.7%14.9%,1.2%18.6%19.0%,11.5%11.6%14.4%,5.4%12.8%14.6%,CPICNCINCI,1)Premiumgrowth(12E),1.TotalFYP2.AgentchannelFYP3.BancassuranceFYP2)Networkex
45、pensionpotential3)Highyoygrowthin1H12offalowbasein1H114)Agentproductivityimprovementpotential(1H11,FYPperagentpermonth)5)NBMexpansionpotential1.NBMonAPE(12E)2.Firstyearregularpremiumas%oftotalFYP(1H11)2.Regularpremiumproductsofover10yrsas%ofagentchannelFYP(1H11),5.5%7.0%6.0%BelowaverageBelowaverage5
46、752Aboveaverage32.4%28.8%31.0%ChinaLife,11.9%13.0%9.9%BelowaverageAverage10,477Belowaverage40.7%51.0%N/APingAn,10.3%13.0%10.0%AverageBelowaverage3773Average35.6%33.0%N/ACPIC,14.0%18.7%12.0%AboveaverageAboveaverage4155Aboveaverage23.8%40.9%67.9%NCI,12.9%14.9%11.6%AverageAboveaverage8287Belowaverage26
47、.3%35.8%84.7%Taiping,10.9%13.3%9.9%648931.8%37.9%61.2%Average,NCI,Taiping,PingAnNCI,TaipingNCI,TaipingNCINCI,TaipingCPIC,NCI,ChinaLifeNCI,ChinaLifeWhoisbestpositioned,II.ValuationHshare,1)Upsideto12monthtargetprices,13%,31%,23%,68%,24%,32%,NCI,PingAn,2)Currentvaluation,1.12EP/EV2.12ENBV,1.477.3,1.39
48、5.1,1.335.4,1.040.4,1.213.5,1.294.3,NCI,TaipingNCI,Taiping,3)Currentvaluationvs.troughvaluation(P/EV),1.VS.Historicaltrough2.Vs.Historicalaverage,3.8%30.4%,31.7%29.3%,N/A32.2%,N/AN/A,1.9%50.5%,8.7%35.6%,Ashare,1)Upsideto12monthtargetprices,7%,61%,18%,26%,2)Currentvaluation,1.12EP/EV2.12ENBV,1.568.56
49、,1.121.64,1.396.34,1.384.27,N/AN/A,1.365.20,PingAnPingAn,3)Currentvaluationvs.troughvaluation(P/EV),1.VS.Historicaltrough2.Vs.Historicalaverage,14.2%42.7%,2.1%48.8%,45.9%25.4%,N/AN/A,N/AN/A,11.3%39.0%,III.Investment&sensitivity,1)Equityexposure(1H11),13.4%,9.7%,12.9%,9.2%,11.1%,11.3%,ChinaLife,CPIC,
50、2)Investmentyieldsensitivityonearnings(2012E),Totalinvestmentyieldchangeby1ppBondyieldchangeby10bpsEquityinvestmentyieldchangeby1pp,22.6%1.0%3.0%,27.0%1.7%3.2%,18.5%1.0%2.4%,42.4%2.1%4.3%,47.8%3.0%5.5%,31.7%1.8%3.7%,NCI,TaipingNCI,TaipingNCI,Taiping,IV.Solvencymargin,1)Solvencymargin,Group,Group,1.2
