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1、),Co.Reg No:198700034EMICA(P):099/03/2012Singapore,Sector UpdateBanksNeutral(unchanged)Desmond Chng,ACAdesmond.chngmaybank-(603)2297 8680,17 January 2013Manageable Near-term ImpactUpside capped.Channel checks would suggest that banks expect anaverage 20%drop-off in new mortgage applications over the
2、 next sixmonths from the recent property measures,but the overall impact toloan growth is likely to be felt only later on.Separately,there areseveral factors that are likely to moderate price competition and thus wethink the impact on NIM is likely to be contained.Overall,however,these measures are
3、likely to cap the upside to 2013 loan growth andNIMs.We maintain our Neutral call on the sector with DBS(BUY,TP:SGD17.40)as our top pick.,About 20%drop-off.Our channel checks point to expectations of a20%drop-off in new mortgage applications over the next six months,though the impact on loan numbers
4、 is likely to be felt later on upondrawdown.In the meantime,we expect housing loan growth to continuetapering off(+16%YoY end-Nov 12),buffered by drawdowns onproperties that are expected to be completed this year.Moreover,thelocal banks expect to benefit from reduced refinancing activity,whichwould
5、stabilize their loan base.As such,any impact from thesemeasures would likely be more apparent towards year end.A manageable impact.Housing loans account for 31%of total DBUloans.Assuming new mortgage loan volume for 2013 comes in 30%lower than in 2012,we estimate an average 50bp reduction in overall
6、loan growth for the three local banks from 8.8%to 8.3%,which wouldstill be manageable,since every 100 bp decline in loan growth wouldimpact the earnings of the banks by just 1.1-1.5%.Unlikely to see aggressive pricing.As it stands,NIMs for mortgagesremain under pressure,but mainly because of the sub
7、stitution effect ofolder higher yielding loans with newer lower yielding ones.Positively,competition has eased in recent months-mortgage rates have tickedup by about 10 bps while banks have started to pull back subsidies.Coupled with rising loan/deposit ratios,we do not expect aggressivemortgage pri
8、ce wars despite shrinking sales.As such,Singapore NIMsare likely to be stable this year,with slight downward bias.DBS least affected.DBS has the least exposure to housing loans-just21%of its total loan book,as opposed to 26%for OCBC and 29%forUOB.DBS housing loan growth has essentially trailed its c
9、ompetitorssince 4Q10.Housing loan growth moderated to about 8%YoY end-Sep2012 for DBS vs 13%and 15%for UOB and OCBC respectively,ex-Malaysian housing loans.DBS is a BUY with a raised TP of SGD17.40(from SGD16.10)on a higher 2013 P/BV of 1.3x(1.2x before),in linewith peers,for a prospective 2013 ROE
10、of 11.1%.Banking Sector Peer Valuation Summary,Stock,Rec,Shr px,Mkt,TP,PER,PER,P/B,P/B,ROAE,ROAE,Net,Net,cap,(x),(x),(x),(x),(%),(%),yield,yield,(SGD),(SGDm,(SGD),CY12E,CY13E,CY12E,CY13E,CY12E,CY13E,CY12E,CY13E,DBSOCBCUOB,BUYHOLDSELL,14.319.7018.99,33,47133,37830,203,17.409.6018.50,10.212.411.7,10.0
11、12.111.2,1.11.41.3,1.071.301.21,11.412.512.2,11.111.111.5,3.93.83.7,3.93.83.7,MC wtd,97,053,11.4,11.1,1.3,1.2,12.0,11.2,3.8,3.8,Source:Maybank KESEE APPENDIX I FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS,7,th,BankingExerting greater control over the property sectorWide-ranging measures.The
12、recent property measures represent theround of cooling measures announced by the SingaporeGovernment and represent the most comprehensive all the measuresintroduced.Apart from higher Additional Buyers Stamp Duty,loan-to-value(LTV)ratios have been tightened,as have minimum cashdownpayments.Revised LT
13、V and cash requirements1st mortgage 2nd mortgage From 3rd mortgage,LTV,Existing,80%/60%*,60%/40%,60%/40%*,Revised No chg 50%/30%*if loan tenure 30 yrs or extends past age of 65,40%/20%*,Min cash,Existing,5%(LTV=80%),10%,10%,downpayment,10%(LTV=60%),Revised,No chg,25%,25%,Source:MASHousing loans in t
14、he system.Housing and bridging loans currentlyaccount for about 31%of DBU loans and 18%of total system(DBU+ACU)loans.While housing loan growth has trended down from its loftypeak of 23%YoY(end-Aug 2010),the current pace of 16%YoY(end-Nov 2012)continues to be robust.DBU:Housing loan growth(YoY chg)(Y
15、oY chg,%)252015105-,Jan-06,Jan-07,Jan-08,Jan-09,Jan-10,Jan-11,Jan-12,Housing loan growthSource:MASImpacts about 30-40%of mortgage borrowers.Based on ourchannel checks,about 30-40%of the banks borrowers have more thanone housing loan.According to MAS,45%of new residential propertyloans granted over t
16、he past three years are more than 30 years intenure rough estimates would suggest about 18%of total housingloans are more than 30 years,or 5%of total DBU loans.Housing accounts for a lower proportion of DBS loan book.Of thethree banks,DBS has the least exposure to housing loans,whichaccount for just
17、 21%of its total loan book,as opposed to 26%forOCBC and 29%for UOB.Moreover,if we consider housing loan growthacross the banks over the past four years,DBS has been the leastaggressive in expanding its loan book,which grew at a 4-year CAGR of11%between 3Q08 and 3Q12.UOB and OCBC saw loan growthCAGR
18、of 17%each over the same period.,17 January 2013,Page 2 of 11,Banking4-year housing loan CAGR&exposure to housing loans,4-yr CAGR,As%of total loans,DBS,UOB,OCBC,DBS,UOB,OCBC,ManufacturingConstructionHousing loansGeneral commerceTransportFinancialsIndividualsOthersTotal,11%15%11%30%6%4%9%9%12%,1%11%1
19、7%6%6%10%14%2%10%,5%7%17%21%15%17%17%25%14%,13%15%21%17%8%8%7%10%100%,8%12%29%12%5%16%14%4%100%,6%15%26%12%7%15%10%9%100%,Source:CompaniesStripping out Malaysian housing loans for UOB and OCBC,loangrowth for DBS has still been the most moderate.Stripping outMalaysian housing loans from UOBs and OCBC
20、s portfolios,DBShousing loan growth has essentially trailed its competitors since 4Q10.Housing loan growth moderated to about 8%YoY in 3Q12 for DBS,13%for UOB and 15%for OCBC.Housing loan growth(excluding Malaysia for UOB and OCBC)(YoY chg)35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%,-5%4Q08,DBS,4Q09,4Q10UOB,4Q11OCBC,Sou
21、rce:Companies,Maybank KEMass market worst hit.That the measures instituted will have animpact on sales and our property analyst believes that the privateproperty market is likely to undergo another deep freeze over the next2-3 months as developers and homebuyers grapple with the magnitudeof the late
22、st measures.We are also of the view that the mass marketsegment will be the worst hit as marginal investors will be forced to thesidelines,with underlying demand coming mainly from first-timehomebuyers.About 20%drop-off.Our channel checks would suggest expectationsof a 20%drop-off in new mortgage ap
23、plications over the next sixmonths,though the impact on loan numbers is likely to be felt later onupon drawdown.In the meantime,we expect housing loan growth tocontinue tapering off(+16%YoY end-Nov 12),buffered by drawdownson properties that are expected to be completed this year.Local banksalso exp
24、ect to benefit from reduced refinancing activity,which wouldstabilize their loan base.As such,any impact from these measureswould likely be more apparent towards year end.,17 January 2013,Page 3 of 11,34,123,BankingProperties planned and under construction,2800024000200001600012000800040000,No.ofhom
25、es,2012,2013,2014,2015,2016,2016,Under construction,Planned,Source:Companies,Maybank KEBut what kind of impact would it have on loan growth?On theassumption that new mortgage loan volume for 2013 comes in 30%lower than it is expected to in 2012,we estimate the impact to be a 40-60 bp reduction in ov
26、erall loan growth for the three banks,which wouldstill be manageable,in our view,since every 100 bp decline in loangrowth would impact the earnings of the banks by just 1.1-1.5%.Impact assuming 30%decline in new mortgage demand,2011,2012E,2013EPrevious,2013ERevised*,Housing loansDBSUOB ex Msia,(SGDm
27、)41,32233,394,(SGDm)44,62837,735,(SGDm)47,75241,508,(SGDm)46,94240,773,OCBC ex Msia 27,189 31,268 35,020*Assumes 30%decline in new mortgage loan volume from 2012YoY housing loan growth,DBSUOB ex MsiaOCBC ex Msia,8%13%15%,7%10%12%,5%8%9%,2012E,2013EPrevious,2013ERevised*,Chgbps,Grp loan growth foreca
28、st,DBSUOBOCBC,8.0%9.5%8.3%,8.7%8.9%8.7%,8.3%8.4%8.1%,(38)(47)(61),Source:Companies,Maybank KE,17 January 2013,Page 4 of 11,BankingNIM pressure to persist.The question then is whether competition fora dwindling portfolio would lead to further NIM pressure on themortgage book.As it stands,NIMs for mor
29、tgages remain underpressure,but mainly because of the substitution effect of older higheryielding loans with newer lower yielding ones.But competition has easedNevertheless,what we have seen overthe past six months is more rational competition in the market-mortgage rates have seen a slight upward a
30、djustment of about 10 bpswhile banks have started to pull back subsidies eg on legal fees.Coupled with the fact industry loan/deposit ratios have been rising andthus funding costs have to be managed more carefully,it is unlikely thatbanks would risk engaging in aggressive price wars on the mortgagef
31、ront.as spreads are already thin.Mortgage rates currently averageabout 1.2%in Singapore,and this already yields a thin spread of about1.1%above the 3-month fixed deposit rate of 0.1%.This comparesagainst aggregate bank spreads of about 1.6%-1.8%.Overall as such,we do think that Singapore NIMs are li
32、kely to be stablethis year,with slight downward bias.Industry loan/deposit ratio100%95%90%85%80%75%70%65%60%,Mar-05,Mar-06,Mar-07,Mar-08,Mar-09,Mar-10,Mar-11,Mar-12,Source:MAS,Maybank KE,17 January 2013,Page 5 of 11,1/31/08,2/29/08,3/31/08,4/30/08,5/31/08,6/30/08,7/31/08,8/31/08,9/30/08,10/31/08,11/
33、30/08,12/31/08,1/31/09,2/28/09,3/31/09,4/30/09,5/31/09,6/30/09,7/31/09,8/31/09,9/30/09,10/31/09,11/30/09,12/31/09,1/31/10,2/28/10,3/31/10,4/30/10,5/31/10,6/30/10,7/31/10,8/31/10,9/30/10,10/31/10,11/30/10,12/31/10,1/31/11,2/28/11,3/31/11,4/30/11,5/31/11,6/30/11,7/31/11,8/31/11,9/30/11,10/31/11,11/30/
34、11,12/31/11,1/31/12,2/29/12,3/31/12,4/30/12,5/31/12,6/30/12,7/31/12,8/31/12,9/30/12,10/31/12,11/30/12,BankingRecent cooling measures from a timeline perspectiveHousing loans,YoY chg(%),25201510,Round 2,Round 3,Round 4,Round 5,Round 6,5,Round 1,0Source:MAS,URA,Maybank KERecap of the cooling measures
35、in Singapore,Effective date,Measures,Round 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 617 January 2013,14-Sep-0920-Feb-1030-Aug-1014-Jan-1108-Dec-1106-Oct-12,1)Reinstatement of the Confirmed List for 1H10 GLS2)Removal of Interest Absorption Scheme(IAS)and Interest-Only Housing Loans(IOL)3)Non-extension of J
36、an 2009 Budget assistant measures(mainly pertaining to Residential Property Act)1)Introduction of Sellers Stamp Duty(SSD)for properties sold within 1 year of purchase(ad-valorem up to3%)2)Lowering LTV to 80%for all housing loans provided by FIs1)SSD increased to 3 years(i.e.3%1st year;2%2nd year;1%3
37、rd year)2)For buyers already with one or more outstanding housing loans(incl.HDB loans):i)Minimum cash payment is increased from 5%to 10%;ii)LTV is lowered from 80%to 70%1)SSD increased to 4 years(16%;12%;8%;4%)2)LTV lowered to 50%for non-individuals3)LTV lowered from 70%to 60%for individuals with o
38、ne or more outstanding housing loans.1)Imposition of Additional Buyers Stamp Duty(ABSD)over and above normal ad-valorem stamp duty of3%a)Foreigners and non-individuals buying any residential property will pay 10%ABSD;b)Permanent Residents owning one(excl.overseas property)and buying second or subseq
39、uentresidential property pay 3%ABSDc)Singaporeans owning two and buying the third and subsequent property pay 3%ABSD.1)Capping all residential loans at 35 years.Loans 30 years will attract higher LTV,applicable to bothprivate and HDB properties.i)For individuals without outstanding home loans:-LTV i
40、s 80%if loan tenure does not exceed 30 years,or loan period is within retirement age of 65.-LTV is 60%if tenure is 30-35 years,or if it extends beyond retirement age.ii)For individuals already with outstanding home loans(incl.HDB loans):-LTV is 40%for new home loan.ii)For non-individuals,LTV for res
41、idential home loan is lowered from 50%to 40%.Page 6 of 11,BankingRecap of the cooling measures in Singapore(continued),Effective date,Measures,Round 7,12-Jan-13,1)Measures affecting ALL residential property:,a)ABSD raised across the board-i)Citizens:7%for 2nd purchase;10%for 3rd and subsequent purch
42、aseii)PRs:5%for 1st purchase;10%for 2nd and subsequent purchaseiii)Foreigners and non-individuals:15%for ANY purchaseb)Tighter LTVs for new housing loans to individuals with outstanding loans and non-individuals:i)For individuals with existing housing loan,LTV for 2nd housing loan is now 50%(or 30%o
43、f loan tenure30 years or extends beyond borrowers retirement age of 65)ii)For individuals obtaining third or more housing loans,LTV will be 40%(or 20%if tenure 30 years orextends beyond retirement age)iii)For non-individuals,LTV will be 20%.c)Higher minimum cash down payment of 25%for new purchases
44、for individuals with outstandinghousing loans2)Measures affecting public(HDB)housing:a)Capping of Mortgage Servicing Ratio(MSR):i)For purchasers applying for HDB housing loans,the MSR will be capped at 35%of gross monthly income.ii)For purchasers applying for MAS-regulated bank loans to purchase HDB
45、 flats,the MSR will be capped at30%.b)Flat owners who are PRs are disallowed to sublet whole flat even after the Minimum Occupation Period(MOP).c)Flat owners who are PRs purchasing a private residential property in Singapore must dispose theirHDB flats within 6 months of purchasing the private prope
46、rty(6 months after TOP/CSC for uncompletedprojects).3)Measures for Executive Condo(EC)developments:a)Maximum strata floor area of new EC units will be capped at 160 sqm.b)Sales of new dual-key EC units will be restricted to multi-generational families only.c)Developers of future Ecs can only launch
47、units 15 months from date of award of site or after completionof foundation works,whichever is earlier.d)Private enclosed space(PES)and private roof terraces to be treated at GFA and counted under thebonus GFA and subject to payment of charges.4)Measures for industrial property market:a)Imposition o
48、f Sellers Stamp Duty(SSD)for industrial properties and land sold within 3 years ofpurchase(15%is sold within 1st year;10%if sold in the 2nd year and 5%if sold in the 3rd year).Source:URA,17 January 2013,Page 7 of 11,BankingRESEARCH OFFICES,REGIONALP K BASURegional Head,Research&Economics(65)6432 182
49、1 pk.basumaybank-.sgWONG Chew Hann,CAActing Regional Head of Institutional Research(603)2297 8686 wchewhmaybank-ONG Seng YeowRegional Products&Planning(65)6432 1453 ongsengyeowmaybank-.sg,ECONOMICSSuhaimi ILIASChief Economist Singapore|Malaysia(603)2297 8682 suhaimi_iliasmaybank-Luz LORENZO Philippi
50、nes|Indonesia(63)2 849 8836 luz_lorenzomaybank-Tim LEELAHAPHAN Thailand(662)658 1420 tim.lmaybank-ke.co.th,MALAYSIAWONG Chew Hann,CA Head of Research(603)2297 8686 wchewhmaybank-Strategy Construction&InfrastructureDesmond CHNG,ACA(603)2297 8680 desmond.chngmaybank-Banking-RegionalLIAW Thong Jung(603
