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1、Deutsche BankMarkets Research,Europe,PeriodicalGerman&Austrian,Date15 October 2012,EquitiesAndreas Neubauer,DVFA,Daily Newsflow,Head of Research(+49)69 910-,DAX:Company updates published Oct 12-15 2012 6.30am CETBayer AG(BAYGn.DE),EUR67.97 Buy Price Target EUR71.00Riociguat primer:Positive risk/rewa
2、rd on upcoming clinical dataATX:Company updates published Oct 12-15 2012 6.30am CETAndritz(ANDR.VI),EUR44.62 Buy Price Target EUR45.00Feedback from Berlin analyst day&management dinner-part 1Andritz(ANDR.VI),EUR44.62 Buy Price Target EUR45.00Feedback from Berlin CMD-part 2:some more color on Schuler
3、Mid-&SmallCap:Company updates published Oct 12-15 2012 6.30am CETDeutz AG(DEZG.DE),EUR3.39 Hold Price Target EUR3.00Deutz sells stake in Bosch JVMAN(MANG.DE),EUR75.00 Buy Price Target EUR94.00MAN CMD-In Nielsen(and VW)we trustMetro Group(MEOG.DE),EUR20.24 Hold Price Target EUR23.00Structural pressur
4、es accelerating and Germany now weak tooSoftware AG(SOWG.DE),EUR30.35 Buy Price Target EUR34.00Positive pre-announcementINDUSTRY:Sector updates published Oct 12-15 2012 6.30am CETAgrochemicals&Fertilizers Feedback from 5th farm tour in FranceAuto Manufacturing 3Q12 Sector Preview-Drifting Down but n
5、ot falling offRenewables overhaul in Germany has limited politicalElectrical Equipmentprospect,Related recent researchGerman Stock IdeasAndreas NeubauerAustrian Stock IdeasMatthias PfeifenbergerToPPiX-German StrategyLars SlomkaGerman Stock IdeasAndreas NeubauerUpcoming eventsDeutsche EuroShop AGRoad
6、showDelticom AGNine Months statementKWS SAAT AGAnnual financial statementzooplus AGNine months statement,Date27-Jan-1206-Jan-1206-Dec-1101-Dec-11Date17 October201218 October201218 Ocotber201222 October2012,_Deutsche Bank AG/LondonAll prices are those current at the end of the previous trading sessio
7、n unless otherwise indicated.Prices are sourcedfrom local exchanges via Reuters,Bloomberg and other vendors.Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subjectcompanies.Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports.Thus,investors should be aware that the firm
8、may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.DISCLOSURES ANDANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.MICA(P)072/04/2012.,15 October 2012German&Austrian Equiti
9、esEuropean Equity Research Analysts German&Austrian UniverseHead of German&Austrian Equity Research,Andreas NeubauerStrategists,+49 69 910 31900,Lars SlomkaJan RabeAustrian StocksChristian BaderMatthias PfeifenbergerAutomobileJochen GehrkeGaetan ToulemondeTim RokossaBanksAlexander Hendricks,CFAFlora
10、 BenhakounCementLuis Prieto BartolomeChemicalsTim JonesMartin DunwoodieVirginie Boucher-FerteConstructionMatthias PfeifenbergerMichael KuhnConsumerMichael KuhnHarold ThompsonJamie IsenwaterRod WhiteheadGunnar RomerFinancial servicesAlexander Hendricks,CFAIndustrialsPeter Reilly,+49 69 910 31942+49 6
11、9 910 31813+43 1 53181 156+43 1 53181 153+49 69 910 31949+33 14 495 6668+49 69 910 31998+49 69 910 31928+49 69 910 31962+44(20)754-50791+44 20 754 76763+44 20 754 72852+44 20 75457940+43 1 53181 153+49 69 910 36642+49 69 910 36642+44 20 754 51886+44 20 754 75170+44 20 754 58492+49 69 910 31917+49 69
12、 910 31928+44 20 754 59835,Ingo SchmitzInsuranceSpencer HorganMediaPatrick KirbyPharma&HealthcareHolger BlumGunnar RomerReal EstateMarkus ScheuflerRetailJames CollinsSemiconductorsKai KorscheltSoftwareMark BraleySolar TechnologyAlexander KarnickKatja FilzekTechnologyBenjamin KohnkeUwe Schupp,CFATele
13、communicationMatthew Bloxham,CFATransportation&LogisticsAndy ChuSimon ChampionUtilitiesAlexander Karnick,+49 69 910 31910+44 20 754 56727+44 20 754 73560+49 69 910 31912+49 69 910 31917+49 69 910 31739+44 20 754 54252+44 20 754 58569+44(20)754-59904+49 69 910 31945+49 69 910 31955+49 69 910 31943+49
14、 69 910 31955+44 20 754 58163+44 20 754 77650+44 20 754 51983+49 69 910 31945,Bastian SynagowitzBen FidlerPage2,+49 69 910 36126+44 20 754 54138,Deutsche Bank AG/London,15 October 2012German&Austrian Equities,Bayer AG,Buy,Reuters:BAYGn.DERiociguat primer:Positive risk/reward on upcoming clinical dat
15、a,Exchange:GER,Ticker:BAYGn,Price(EUR)Price target(EUR)52-week range(EUR)Market cap(EUR)(m),67.9771.0069.01-42.8456,207.6,Previewing upcoming data at CHEST meetingThe next catalyst potentially augmenting Bayers share price performance will be thepresentation of detailed results from the PATENT-1 and
16、 CHEST-1 trials of riociguat,its novel potential treatment for pulmonary arterial hypertension(PAH)at the CHEST,FYE 12/31Revenue(EUR)DB PBT(EUR),2011A 2012E 2013E36,528 39,313 41,2365,617 6,211 6,806,meeting,23 October,2012.Given limited clinical data to date,investors will likelyseek clarity on the
17、 drugs profile and its ability to compete and differentiate in atransitioning market.In this report we provide a primer to the event.,Stated PBT(EUR)DB EPS(EUR)DPS(EUR)P/E(DB EPS)(x),3,3634.831.6510.5,3,9915.421.7712.5,5,0866.001.9111.3,Intriguing prospects for this little understood drugGiven seemi
18、ngly impressive Phase II data from a single arm study the prospects forriociguat are intriguing but extremely difficult to gauge.We assume some form ofpositive results given the trial presentations as late breakers at CHEST.However,the,data presentation will be the first time physicians and analysts
19、 can dissect theprospects for the drug.Multiple scenarios exist,ranging from;1)a poorlydifferentiated product competing in a generic market with PDE-5 inhibitors,to 2)anew treatment paradigm for PAH patients finding its own place in the treatmentpathway(possibly before or with ETRAs).Key to success
20、will be strong andconsistent data and importantly a positive study in the analogous but differentiatingindication of CTEPH.Risk/reward favorable(2%down/5%up)Riociguat could be entering a$3.6bn PAH market but currently our forecasts carryriociguat with only a 30%chance of success(or 250m 2016e sales)
21、,representing1.5 NPV/share(2%)to our 71 price target.Should riociguat be successful(definedas positive in PAH and CTEPH)the drug potentially could add 5%to our price targetand represent an NPV of 5/share(7%).Valuation&RisksOur price target is based on SOTP and we back-test against our DCF analysis,(
22、WACC of 8.8%,ERP 5.5%,TGR 2.5%).Within SOTP we use a conglomeratediscount of 5%.The divisional valuations are based on 2013E EV/EBITDA versuspeers.We see key risks should new drugs fail to gain traction,or suffer a safety set-backs.We also see risks to macro factors reducing demand in MaterialsScien
23、ce.InCropScience,we see the environment for soft commodity prices and the weather askey risks.,Deutsche Bank AG/London,Tim Race(+44)207 54-,Richard Parkes(+44)20 754-,Mark Clark(+44)20 754-,Page3,15 October 2012German&Austrian Equities,Andritz,Buy,Reuters:ANDR.VIFeedback from Berlin analyst day&mana
24、gement dinner-part 1,Exchange:VIE,Ticker:ANDR,Price(EUR)Price target(EUR)52-week range(EUR)Market cap(EUR)(m),44.6245.0079.20-37.814,640.5,Q3 intake to potentially continue on solid level based on large Metals orderOn the recent capital markets day incl.site visit and mgmt dinner,CEO Dr.Leitnerhas s
25、tressed that the volatility of intake from quarter to quarter is being considerednormal and should not be overemphasized;we think that based on the booking of a,FYE 12/31Revenue(EURm)DB PBT(EURm)Stated PBT(EURm)DB EPS(EUR)DPS(EUR)P/E(DB EPS)(x),2011A4,5963413224.802.2013.7,2012E4,9003613462.501.2017
26、.8,2013E5,1703893742.691.3516.6,large order in Metals in summer and several orders in tissue/paper/fibermaking/processing equipment,Q3 order intake should be solid.Pulp mill orders confirmed,solid overall project activity mains unchangedBy segment,the 4 pulpmill projects pipeline has been confirmed
27、again,with the pot.award of two in the next quarters seen as the best case;in Pulp in Hydro,project activity has remained solid,progress good with regards to tidal currentturbines and demand growing for pumped storage power stations,low US gas prices,could have a neg.effect on gas fired power plants
28、 which is not yet recordedhowever;for Separation,which incl.mining applications,large-project flow hasslowed somewhat,but small also,additional M&A remains on the agenda,even for this year still and despite the large-scale Schuler acquisition only recently.,Page4,Matthias Pfeifenberger(+43)1 53181-,
29、Peter Reilly(+44)20 754-,Deutsche Bank AG/London,15 October 2012German&Austrian Equities,Andritz,Buy,Reuters:ANDR.VIFeedback from Berlin CMD-part 2:some more color on Schuler,Exchange:VIE,Ticker:ANDR,Price(EUR)Price target(EUR)52-week range(EUR)Market cap(EUR)(m),44.6245.0079.20-37.814,640.5,Reconfi
30、rming color on Schuler cycle peakish,but good positioning&multipleOn Schuler,limited incremental color has been provided as the deal has not beenclosed yet,but mgmt has reconfirmed that it is considered a very good acquisition ata multiple also justifiable across the industry cycle,with Schuler bein
31、g the,FYE 12/31Revenue(EURm)DB PBT(EURm)Stated PBT(EURm)DB EPS(EUR)DPS(EUR)P/E(DB EPS)(x),2011A4,5963413224.802.2013.7,2012E4,9003613462.501.2017.8,2013E5,1703893742.691.3516.6,undisputed technology with the CEO acknowledging that the car cycle lookspeakish,mid-term growth potential is supported by
32、global car/light truck,manufacturing growth expected at 4.3%CAGR 2008-16E(also driven by increasingmanufacturing shift to emerging markets)and volume growth of tailor-welded blanksexpected at 6.6%(source:Andritz CMD materials,citing industry sources/studies);here,with tailor-welded blanks being the
33、main steel component employed,Schulerequipment is also covering other materials used in car making,such as carbon fiberand plastics;for aluminum,which is also expected to grow strongly as%of overallcar-making materials along with the trend to lighter weight design,casting instead ofpressing is still
34、 the dominating technique;still,we would not rule out that the Schulertechnology portfolio is expanded(pot.by add-on acquisitions at a later stage).In theshorter term,we think Schuler should head towards record revenues and margin thisyear and continue flattish next(also note Duerrs still very optim
35、istic statements fromChina CMD),supported by record backlog(E1.2bn,E0.9bn sales)and strong 9.5%EBITDA margins.Cross-read from recent Duerr CMD in China and DB field trip(see note 11 Oct)As stated in our feedback note from 11 Oct,Chinese overall car market growth(7%YTD)is not expected to accelerate m
36、uch in the coming months with the economybeing hurt by slowing export business and the political change-over process.Mostparticipants we met nevertheless continued to see 10%annual growth in the yearsto come.As such,Duerr(40%global market share in paint shops but an estimated70%in China),expects to
37、build at least 4-5 paint shops annually until 2016 in China.With overcapacity risk still high for China and Duerrs orders from emerging marketsdeclining for 3 quarters in a row and turning negative for the first time in Q2,we nowunderstand that Chinese growth should continue in H2 and revenue and ma
38、rgindevelopment remain strong in the coming quarters(DB sector analyst view).,Deutsche Bank AG/London,Matthias Pfeifenberger(+43)1 53181-,Peter Reilly(+44)20 754-,Page5,15 October 2012German&Austrian Equities,Deutz AG,Hold,Deutz sells stake in Bosch JV,Reuters:DEZG.DE,Exchange:GER,Ticker:DEZG,Price(
39、EUR)Price target(EUR)52-week range(EUR)Market cap(EUR)(m),3.393.005.72-2.96409.6,Deutz backs out of EAT JVDeutz has announced to sell its 25%stake in the diesel exhaust aftertreatment(EAT)JV with Bosch and Eberspcher.The JV had been established in 2010 to commonlydevelop complete systems solutions f
40、or construction and agricultural machinery as,FYE 12/31Revenue(EURm)DB PBT(EURm)Stated PBT(EURm)DB EPS(EUR)DPS(EUR)P/E(DB EPS)(x),2011A1,52978780.510.0010.7,2012E1,28429290.200.0016.7,2013E1,31044440.310.0010.9,well as commercial vehicles for higher emission standards.Eberspcher will also selltheir
41、20%stake in the company both to the majority shareholder Bosch.The priceof the transaction has not been communicated and is still subject to approval ofantitrust authoritiesInnovation agreement to replace old cooperationDeutz and Bosch will continue to collaborate in the development in the field ofe
42、xhaust aftertreatment,diesel injection technology and electronics in the form of aninnovation agreement.Also,Bosch will continue to supply EAT systems to Deutz.We,understand that in both cases there will be only minor adjustments to the previousagreements.In the short term:Avoid excessive start-up l
43、ossesWith Q2 results,Deutz had announced restructuring plans of the JV as it had causedhigher-than-expected start-up losses.As such,Deutz had planned with losses ofroughly mid single digit million amount for 2012/13 respectively but the first halfyear already saw about E6m.Overall,we estimate that t
44、he JV has cost Deutz roughlyE13m start-up-losses since being in operations in Q2-10.In the longer term:concentration on other JVs(China,Volvo)We note that Deutz should continue to profit from better product mix coming froman increasing share of higher emission engines.However,the original idea toadd
45、itionally profit from the rapidly growing market for exhaust aftertreatmentsystems in general seems to be shelved for good.In particular,Deutz had originallyplanned to gain E5-10m in equity investments on several E100m sales of the JV overthe mid-term.FY12 guidance untouched less pressureAs Deutz ha
46、s not stated the selling price of the stake it is difficult to assess the P&Leffect.However,we would assume that the company would at least be compensatedfor the accumulated start-up-losses(E13m).In any case,it should only be effectivewith Q4 results and should be regarded as a one-off.Together with
47、 less Q4 losses onthe JV itself(we expect both to impact EBIT),the move should relax pressure on FYguidance especially as long as the amount is not quantified.So far,we haveregarded mid-point guidance as ambitious given the deteriorating signs regardingend-market demand and the implicit 20%EBIT boos
48、t H2 on H1.,Page6,Felicitas Bismarck(+49)69 910-31975felicitas.von-,Matthias Pfeifenberger(+43)1 53181-,Bastian Synagowitz(+41)44 227-Deutsche Bank AG/London,15 October 2012German&Austrian Equities,MAN,Buy,MAN CMD-In Nielsen(and VW)we trust,Reuters:MANG.DE,Exchange:GER,Ticker:MANG,Price(EUR)Price ta
49、rget(EUR)52-week range(EUR)Market cap(EUR)(m),75.0094.00102.45-55.4411,028.0,New truck CEO building a plan-details to follow likely before year end.MAN hosted its CMD today and we took away the following points:Q3 was weaker than seasonally expected and market-wise 2013 will be tough(“flattish”)but
50、MAN targets an increased profitability due to cost cutting and,FYE 12/31Revenue(EURm)DB PBT(EURm)Stated PBT(EURm),2011A 2012E 2013E16,472 15,652 16,1501,122 714 1,3161,122 714 1,316,sees improvements in Latam.Enhance customer focus:Make sure production will be customer demandfocused.This has not alw
