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1、3 key trends to watch,1.,Company,3.6,January 29,2013Taiwan:AutomobilesEquity Research2013 Outlook:In Neutral gear;3 ways to get back to drive;Buy YulonA flat year for sales but watch 3 key trends for upside,We maintain our Neutral coverage view as we expect 2013 sales growth tobe flat yoy and volume
2、 to be in line with 13-year historical average at 36.5kunits due to weak consumer sentiments.However,we highlight 3 keytrends to watch for potential earnings upside:Further yen depreciation to provide earnings tailwind:Oursensitivity analysis suggests another 9%-31%upside to 2013 earningsif the yen
3、weakens further to 100/US$;China Motor and Yulon Motor,3 TRENDS TO WATCH&POTENTIAL BENEFICIARIESYulon Motor China Motor Hotai Motor(2201.TW)(2204.TW)(2207.TW)in 2013Buy Neutral SellFurther JPY weakness Cash-for-clunkers policyCloser cross-straits tiesSource:Goldman Sachs Research.VALUATION SUMMARY O
4、F TAIWAN AUTO MAKERSMkt Cap Ratings,to benefit the most if the yen weakens further.,Company,TW,(US$mn),Yulon Motor,2201.TW,2,812,Buy,2.,Cash-for-clunkers may spur replacement demand:Taiwan has,China MotorHotai Motor,2204.TW2207.TW,1,2354,317,NeutralSell,relatively high holding period for auto at 8.6
5、 years(2005:7.4 years)with more than 50%of its vehicle population older than 10 years.A,Share New 12m%change Potentialprice target from upside/28-Jan price previous downside,potential cash-for-clunker policy(currently proposed by TTVMA toLegislative Yuan)could boost the replacement cycle and lead to
6、volume upside,based on our scenario analysis.,Yulon MotorChina MotorHotai MotorEPSYulon MotorChina Motor,NT$52NT$26NT$230CurrencyNT$NT$,NT$68NT$29NT$1602012E2.141.86,3.0%3.6%5.3%2013E3.212.11,30%12%-30%2014E4.002.66,3.,Closer cross-straits ties could offer long-term opportunities:ECFACBU is still in
7、 the early discussion stage but we think company with thehighest China exposure could leverage the still-robust China autodemand growth(+8.5%yoy in 2013-14E).Yulon Motor has the highestpretax earnings exposure(54%in 2013 vs.China Motors 9%and Hotai,Hotai MotorEPS growthYulon MotorChina MotorHotai Mo
8、torYulon MotorChina Motor,NT$2011-13%6%36%P/E(X)2013E1612,13.592012E-6%-15%13%2014E1310,13.902013E50%13%2%P/B(X)2013E1.20.8,14.222014E25%26%2%2014E1.10.8,Motors 2%)due to its JVs with Dongfeng Group.Raise EPS on weak yen;TPs up 3%-5%;top pick Yulon MotorWe increase our 2013-14E earnings by 5%-16%on
9、a weaker yen and morebullish China auto assumptions,and revise our 2012E earnings by-6%to4%to factor in actual 2012 sales volume.As a result,we raise our 12-month TPs by 3%-5%.Our ratings are unchanged.We reiterate our Buyrating on Yulon Motor with our new 12-month SOTP-based target price ofNT$68(pr
10、ior:NT$66)implying 30%upside,as we expect its China JVs torecover after Sino-Japan tensions in 2H12.We retain our Sell rating onHotai with our new 12-month P/B-ROE based target price of NT$160(prior:NT$152)implying 30%downside,as we believe its valuation is demandingand see a production slowdown on
11、Camry Hybrid inventory build up.Weretain Neutral on China Motor with new 12-month P/B-ROE based targetprice of NT$29(prior:NT$28)due to its relatively modest 12%upsideamong our auto coverage.,Hotai Motor 17 16 3.9Source:Bloomberg,Company data,Goldman SachsResearch estimates.Risks:1)Slowdown in domes
12、tic consumption and furtherdeterioration in macro conditions;2)potential ECFA CBU onthe auto sector could increase the industrys utilization rateand profitability.RELATED RESEARCHThe Global FX Monthly Analyst:January 2013-Will the Yenweaken further?,Jan 22,2013China:Automobiles:2013 Outlook:Prefer l
13、uxury and SUVover HDT;adding Baoxin to CL-Buy,JAC up to Buy,Jan 17,2013,Willy Chen+886(2)2730-4183 Goldman Sachs(Asia)L.L.C.,Taipei BranchTommy Wong+886(2)2730-4194 Goldman Sachs(Asia)L.L.C.,Taipei BranchThe Goldman Sachs Group,Inc.,Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business withcompanies covered i
14、n its research reports.As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investorsshould consider this report as only a single factor in makingtheir investment decision.For Reg AC certification and otherimportant discl
15、osures,see the Disclosure Appendix,or go Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analystswith FINRA in the U.S.Global Investment Research,3,6,9,11,13,14,21,28,2,January 29,2013Table of ContentsOutlook:2013 sales growth flat yoy;in line with historical cycleTre
16、nd#1:Further yen depreciation a tailwind for earningsTrend#2:Potential cash-for-clunkers may spur auto replacementTrend#3:Closer cross-straits ties offer long-term opportunitiesValuation:Raise target prices on weak yen;reiterate Buy on YulonYulon Motor:Weak yen,China JVs to drive a stronger 2013;Buy
17、Hotai Motor:Inventory builds up and demanding valuations;SellAppendix:Taiwan 2012 and 2013 new car launchesDisclosure AppendixPrices in this report are based on the market close of January 28,2013,unless stated otherwise.Exhibit 1:Asia automobile valuation comp sheet,Taiwan:Automobiles29,GS,EV/,Div,
18、FCF Net debt,Stock,Market cap Pricing,Price on,Target,EPS growth,P/E(X),P/B(X),ROE,EBITDA(X),Yield Yield/Equity,Company,Ticker,Rating,(US$mn)currency 28-Jan-2013,Price,2012E,2013E,2012E 2013E,2012E 2013E,2012E 2013E 2012E 2013E 2013E 2012E 2012E,Taiwan,Yulon Motor Co.China Motor CompanyHotai Motor,2
19、201.TW2204.TW2207.TW,BuyNeutralSell,2,7661,2144,246,TWDTWDTWD,52.325.9229.5,68.029.0160.0,-6%-15%13%,50%13%2%,24.513.916.9,16.312.316.5,1.20.84.2,1.20.83.9,5%6%26%,7%6%24%,43.98.229.1,37.57.229.0,2.5%4.5%4.1%,2%9%2%,-9%-19%-24%,Median,-6%,8%,16.9,16.3,1.2,1.2,6%,7%,29.1,29.0,4.1%,2%,-19%,Japan,Nissa
20、n MotorSuzuki MotorHonda MotorToyota MotorFuji Heavy IndustriesDaihatsu MotorMazda MotorYamaha Motor,7201.T7269.T7267.T7203.T7270.T7262.T7261.T7272.T,Buy*BuyBuyNeutralNeutralNeutralNeutralSell,43,03514,57768,672149,64110,1449,0017,9043,965,JPYJPYJPYJPYJPYJPYJPYJPY,9342,3713,4304,3251,1801,9152401,09
21、0,1,2002,8004,0004,8001,2701,800200950,7%19%-60%-31%-24%24%-70%-27%,-1%48%106%197%154%16%112%63%,11.424.729.247.923.912.519.2,11.516.614.216.29.410.835.311.8,1.21.31.41.32.01.91.51.3,1.21.21.31.21.71.71.51.2,11%6%5%3%9%16%-24%7%,10%8%10%8%20%17%4%10%,3.12.68.75.95.43.621.19.0,4.13.77.35.05.54.611.66
22、.7,2.7%0.7%2.2%1.6%0.9%2.8%0.0%1.7%,14%6%1%0%3%16%-37%5%,2%-51%-17%-5%16%-26%51%43%,Median,-25%,84%,23.9,13.0,1.4,1.3,6%,10%,5.4,5.0,1.7%,4%,-2%,China,SAIC MotorBaoxin Auto GroupDongfeng MotorBrilliance China Automotive HoldingsGuangzhou Automobile Group CoGeely Automobile Holdings,600104.SS1293.HK0
23、489.HK1114.HK2238.HK0175.HK,Buy*Buy*BuyNeutralNeutralNeutral,23,9922,61114,0616,4362,8963,165,CNYHKDHKDHKDHKDHKD,17.538.0112.6610.006.424.20,21.649.2113.9011.257.114.35,7%36%-30%29%-62%20%,2%96%22%45%84%19%,8.919.811.917.119.513.6,8.710.19.811.810.611.4,1.64.21.74.31.02.2,1.43.01.53.21.01.9,20%24%15
24、%29%5%17%,18%35%16%31%10%18%,6.213.25.610.5,9.46.74.47.8,3.4%1.0%2.3%0.0%2.8%1.0%,0%-11%-3%0%-5%7%,-29%66%-50%2%1%-6%,FAW Car,000800.SZ,Neutral,2,139,CNY,8.18,8.13,-315%,111%,1.7,1.7,-6%,1%,20.3,0.0%,-4%,8%,Zhengtong Auto Services HoldingsZhongsheng Group HoldingsGreat Wall Motor Co.Chongqing Changa
25、n Auto(A),1728.HK0881.HK2333.HK000625.SZ,NeutralNeutralNeutralNeutral,1,3612,36911,0125,611,HKDHKDHKDCNY,7.0411.7831.208.31,6.8211.1527.875.69,36%-30%54%22%,45%61%17%102%,16.518.313.333.9,11.411.311.516.7,1.82.33.72.5,1.51.93.02.3,11%13%30%8%,15%18%29%14%,9.011.19.181.7,6.98.47.755.6,0.0%0.9%2.6%1.2
26、%,-4%-10%-5%-8%,53%118%-24%-11%,Median,20%,28%,16.8,11.3,2.2,1.9,15%,18%,9.8,7.8,1.0%,-4%,1%,Korea,Hyundai Motor CompanyKia Motors,005380.KS000270.KS,BuyNeutral,39,99517,832,KRWKRW,198,50049,000,232,00051,000,11%11%,-3%-9%,5.25.1,5.45.6,1.01.2,0.91.0,18%23%,14%18%,3.66.3,2.54.2,1.0%1.3%,7%6%,-33%-3%
27、,Median,11%,-6%,5.2,5.5,1.1,0.9,20%,16%,9.8,7.8,1.2%,6%,-18%,Indonesia&Singapore,Indomobil Sukses InternasionalAstra InternationalJardine Cycle&Carriage,IMAS.JKASII.JKJCYC.SI,Buy*NeutralNeutral,1,48632,42014,883,IDRIDRSGD,5,2007,75052,6,1507,250.047.5,-16%13%7%,46%11%8%,17.815.813.6,12.114.212.7,2.7
28、4.42.9,2.33.72.6,16%30%23%,20%28%22%,21.713.98.2,15.312.77.7,1.6%3.2%3.2%,-5%2%4%,58%42%31%,Median,7%,11%,15.8,12.7,2.9,2.6,23%,22%,13.9,12.7,3.2%,2%,42%,India,Bajaj AutoHero MotoCorpTata MotorsAshok LeylandMahindra&MahindraTVS MotorsMaruti Suzuki India,BAJA.BOHROM.BOTAMO.BOASOK.BOMAHM.BOTVSM.BOMRTI
29、.BO,Buy*BuyBuyNeutralNeutralNeutralSell*,11,2016,65618,1671,2299,3583868,614,INRINRINRINRINRINRINR,2,0871,79730925905441,607,2,1392,0123312476636948,-10%23%84%-10%2%28%-29%,11%-9%-37%-6%9%-22%16%,20.115.15.811.717.48.428.4,18.116.59.212.415.910.724.5,10.08.43.01.63.01.83.1,7.36.32.21.52.61.62.8,57%6
30、6%55%14%20%23%11%,42%44%27%9%19%16%12%,9.89.93.47.38.36.610.9,14.69.25.49.38.85.512.8,1.7%1.8%0.1%3.6%1.4%2.8%0.5%,8%10%26%2%-10%3%0%,-88%-62%61%56%73%44%-40%,Median,2%,-6%,15.1,15.9,3.0,2.6,23%,19%,8.3,9.2,1.7%,3%,44%,*denotes the stock is on our regional Conviction List.Target prices are on a 12-m
31、onth basis.Source:Company data,DataStream,Goldman Sachs Research estimates.Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research,2000,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2013E,1),2),3),3,January 29,2013,Taiwan:Automobiles,Outlook:2013 sales growth flat yoy;in line with historical cycleRec
32、overing economic outlook but consumer confidence remains anemic:Afterthree consecutive years(2009-11)of positive sales growth in the Taiwan auto sector,2012 auto sales saw 3%yoy decline due to volatile domestic fuel prices and slowingdomestic economic growth.Our Global ECS team forecasts 2012E/13E G
33、DP growth of+1%/+3.5%yoy.Despite an improving economic outlook,the Consumer ConfidenceIndex(CCI)remains soft in recent readings,falling to the lowest level since 2010,andthe sub-index of durable goods purchase in next 6 months has been declining since3Q11.We also expect imported brands to continue g
34、aining market share(27%in 2012from 15%in 2005)especially with more new model launches this year vs.2012.Assuch,we forecast a flat yoy domestic auto sales growth in 2013(previous:+2%yoy).This is in line with the 13-year historical average at 36.5k units.Three trends to drive the auto sector in 2013:D
35、espite our expectations for lacklustersales growth,we believe there are three trends worth watching and could drive Taiwanauto sectors volume/earnings further in 2013:Further yen depreciation an earnings tailwind:Our sensitivity analysis suggests9%-31%upside to 2013 earnings if the yen weakens furth
36、er to 100/US$(base case:87/US$);China Motor and Yulon Motor would benefit the most if the yenweakens further(See Exhibit 11).Potential cash-for-clunkers policy may spur replacement demand:Taiwan hasrelatively high holding period for auto at 8.6 years(2005:7.4 years)with more than50%of its vehicle po
37、pulation older than 10 years.A potential cash-for-clunkerpolicy(currently proposed by TTVMA to Legislative Yuan)could boost thereplacement cycle and lead to volume upside for Taiwan auto makers(See Exhibit16).Closer cross-straits ties could offer long-term opportunities Yulon with itshigh China expo
38、sure a key beneficiary:ECFA CBU is still in the early discussionstage but we think the company with the highest China exposure could leveragethe robust China auto demand growth(+8.5%yoy in 2013-14E)if cross-straits tiesstrengthen.Yulon Motor has the highest pretax earnings exposure(54%in 2013 vs.Chi
39、na Motors 9%and Hotai Motors 2%)due to its JVs with Dongfeng Group.Exhibit 2:We forecast Taiwan domestic auto sales will be flat yoy in 2013(36.5k units)versus 3.3%yoy decline in 2012ETaiwan auto sales,units(LHS)13-year average sales volume,600,000500,000,YoY%(RHS),28%,40%30%,400,000,15%,20%10%,300,
40、000200,000100,000-Source:Company data,Goldman Sachs Research estimates.Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research,11%-30%,-3.3%,0.0%,0%-10%-20%-30%-40%,2000,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012E,2013E,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012E,2013E,Apr-09,Apr-10,Apr-11,Apr-1
41、2,Jan-10,Jan-11,Jan-12,Jan-09,Jul-09,Oct-09,Jul-10,Oct-10,Jul-11,Oct-11,Jul-12,Oct-12,Apr-09,Jan-09,Jan-10,Jul-09,Apr-10,Jan-11,Jul-10,Apr-11,Jan-12,Jul-11,Apr-12,Oct-09,Oct-10,Oct-11,Jul-12,Oct-12,-,90.0,4,January 29,2013,Taiwan:Automobiles,Recovering economic outlook but weak consumer sentiments,E
42、xhibit 3:Our Global ECS team expects 2013 GDP growthat 3.5%.Taiwan auto sales yoy growth(%),Exhibit 4:and consumer expenditure growth at 2.4%Taiwan auto sales,units(LHS),40%,Real GDP yoy%(RHS),12%,600,000,Consumers Expenditure yoy%(RHS),5.0,30%,10%,500,000,3.9,3.0,3.7,3.0,4.0,20%10%,3.5%,8%6%,400,00
43、0300,000,1.8,2.3,1.1,1.1,2.4,3.02.0,0%-10%,4%2%,200,000,(0.9),1.00.0,-20%-30%,1.0%,0%-2%,100,000,-1.0-2.0,-40%Source:Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research estimates.,-4%,Source:Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research estimates.,Exhibit 5:However,Taiwan Consumer Confidence Indexfell to 72%in December 2012,the
44、lowest since 2010Consumer Confidence Index(%),Exhibit 6:.and Durable Goods Purchase confidence innext 6 months also showed a declining trend from 3Q11Durable goods purchase in next 6 months,85.080.075.0,110.0105.0100.0,Auto sales 6M-MA(yoy%)(RHS),100%80%60%,70.0,65.060.055.050.045.040.0,95.090.085.0
45、80.075.070.0,40%20%0%-20%-40%-60%,Note:Sub-index of 0-100 indicates pessimistic;100-200 indicates optimistic.,Source:Taiwan Research Institute.Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research,Source:Taiwan Research Institute.,5,January 29,2013Imported auto brands gaining market share,Taiwan:Automobiles,Exhi
46、bit 7:Toyota brand models lead Taiwan auto marketwith 33.8%market share,followed by Mitsubishi andCMC and Nissan and InfinitiTaiwan auto sales 2012 market share(by brands),Exhibit 8:Hotai Motor is the only domestic auto maker tosee yoy sales volume growth in 2012;however weremain Sell due to demandi
47、ng valuationAuto sales growth among our coverage(%)Hotai Motor(Toyota+Lexus)Yulon Motor(Nissan+Infiniti+Luxgen),Luxgen,Others,27.1%,Toyota+Lexus,33.8%,50%40%30%20%,China Motor(Mitsubishi+CMC)Total market,2.1%,10%,Hyundai,3.7%,0%-10%,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,Honda,3.3%Ford,4.7%Mazda,0.
48、9%,Mitsubishi+CMC,Nissan+Infiniti,11.2%,-20%-30%-40%,13.2%Source:U-Car.Exhibit 9:Imported brands are consistently gainingmarket share since 2005Taiwan imported auto sales(LHS),-50%Source:U-Car.Exhibit 10:Toyota leads the imported market with morethan 14%market share,while Volkswagen,Benz andBMW all
49、have c.13-14%market share each2012 Imported brands breakdown(%),110,000100,000,%Imported auto market share(RHS)27%26%,29%27%,Others,Toyota,14.4%,90,00080,00070,00060,00050,00040,000,16%,17%,19%,21%,22%,25%23%21%19%17%,35.2%,Volkswagen,13.6%Mercedes-,30,000,14%,15%,Benz,13.4%,20,000,2005 2006 2007 20
50、08 2009 2010 2011 2012,13%,Lexus,10.4%,BMW,13.0%,Source:U-Car.Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research,Source:U-Car.,6,January 29,2013,Taiwan:Automobiles,Trend#1:Further yen depreciation a tailwind for earningsRecent weak yen a positive catalyst for Taiwanese auto OEM:The yen hasdepreciated 16%again
