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1、,SectorReport,CementandConstructionMaterialSector水泥建材行业,GTJAResearch国泰君安研究,40,20,10,0,(10),(40),(50),2011-11-4,Sector Report:Cement and Construction Material Sector行业报告：水泥建材行业,Ray Zhao 赵 睿+86 755 23976755,2 November 2012Glory Might Fade in Next Decade.Accumulate BBMG and ReduceConch下个十年辉煌可能不再，收集BBMG
2、，减持海螺,Rating:,Underperform,MaintainedWe are pessimistic about cement demand in the long run,mainly because“4trn,Investment Plan”,Public House Plan and overinvestment in 3rd 81%of 4 horizontal and 4 vertical highspeed railway network with total length of 16,000km will be completed by the end of 2012
3、andnew projects only start in West China and South China.3)New floor space started might peakin 2012.Public house construction will begin to fall and house inventories keep rising in 3rd&4th tier cities,accumulating oversupply risk.GFA under construction will reach 5.7bn sqm by2012,assuming dwelling
4、 space per capita of 30sqm,enough to accommodate 200mn people.,评级：Stock Performance股价表现50%change,跑输大市(维持),Cement demand might peak in 2012-2013.Cement and clinker production volumes reached,30,1.59bn tonnes and 0.95bn tonnes,up 6.7%and 0.2%respectively,which means demand hasalready ceased to grow if
5、 we ignore cement products differences.As infrastructure investmenthas reduced and property investment slows,we consider cement demand might reduce,leading to more competition and more volatile cement prices.According to NDRC,currentlythere are 216 new clinker lines under construction,which means to
6、tal cement capacities mightexceed 3.0bn tonnes,far over possible peak level demand of 2.2bn tonnes.(20),Cement industry investment rating is“Underperform”.Currently,investmentaccounted for 46%of Chinas GDP,in which property investment accounted for 16%.These 2 figures are almost twice the peak of US
7、 and Japan in their 100 years economichistory.We believe Chinas economy is reforming in the next decade and the chances thatnew government conducts another round of investments are small.Highway investment and,(30),newly construction GFA constant declines are the most negative catalysts in the futur
8、e.,HSI Index,Conch,CNBM,CRC,We consider Conchs valuation is too expensive and its long term valuation level will reducealong with cement demand.We recommend Reduce Conch,with TP of HKD20.Our toppick is BBMG,with TP at HKD7.5 and investment rating of Accumulate.我们对水泥长期需求保持悲观，认为四万亿投资计划，保障房计划和 3,4 线地产过
9、度投资，已经透支了水泥未来 3-5 年需求：1）城市化速度可能已经见顶。2）基建投资总规模可能在 2012年见顶。东部高速公路网的密度达到 30KM/平方公里，超过日本 30%，接近饱和；1.6 万公里的四横四纵高铁网在 2012 年底完工 1.3 万公里，新项目都集中在西部和南部。3）房产开工面积将于 2012 年见顶。保障房开工将呈持续下降，而 2，3，4 线房地产库存继续攀高，过剩风险正在加速累积。在建面积到 2012 年底将达到 57 亿平米，按人均 30 平米，可以居住接近 2亿人。水泥需求可能在 2012-2013 年见顶。截止 1-9 月份，全国水泥和熟料产量为 15.9 亿吨和
10、 9.5 亿吨，同比增长 6.7%和 0.2%，意味着不考虑产品差异行业需求实际已经停止增长。随着基建投资负增长和房地产投资增速放缓，我们认为水泥需求将很可能进入负增长，将会导致行业竞争加剧，水泥价格波动较大。根据发改委指引，目前在建产能达到 216 条，到 2013 年水泥总产能将超过 30 亿吨，远超过可能的水泥需求峰值 22 亿吨。行业评级为“跑输大市”。2011 年投资占 GDP 比重创纪录超过 46%，其中房地产投资超过 16%，几乎是美国日本经济百年历史峰值水平的 2 倍。我们相信在下个十年中国经济将持续转型，目前的投资规模无法维持，而政府在 2013 年进行新一轮投资计划的可能性
11、非常低。公路投资和房地产新开工负持续增长将是 2013 年行业最大负面催化剂。我们认为目前行业估值过于昂贵，长期估值水平将由于水泥需求下滑而下降，至 6-8x 的水平。建议减持海螺（914.HK，目标价分别为 HKD20.0 港元。行业首选是北京金隅（2009.HK），目标价 HKD7.5 港元。,Source:Bloomberg.,Company Name公司名称,Code编号,Price股价,Rating投资评级,12 PER市盈率,13 PER市盈率,14 PER市盈率,12 ROE净资产收益率,12P/B市净率,12 Yield股息率,(HK$),(x),(x),(x),(%),(x)
12、,(%),Anhui ConchCNBMCRCAsia CementBBMGShanshui CementTCCIHSinomaWeighted Average.市值加权平均,914 HK3323 HK1313 HK743 HK2009 HK691 HK1136 HK1839 HK,28.1010.355.403.306.815.812.242.30,ReduceNeutralNeutralNeutralAccumulateNeutralNeutralNeutralUnderperform,18.19.122.417.98.59.213.017.861.9,15.37.818.113.28.0
13、8.99.010.121.5,14.57.614.79.37.27.78.88.518.9,14.117.98.32.813.217.94.06.57.7,2.51.51.80.51.11.70.50.72.3,0.91.60.41.01.02.61.50.80.0,Sourcethe Companies,Guotai Junan International.,See the last page for disclaimer,Page 1 of 41,SectorReport,CementandConstructionMaterialSector水泥建材行业,2November2012,Tab
14、le of ContentsCement and Construction Material Sector.3Company Report:Anhui Conch(00914.HK).16Company Report:BBMG(02009.HK).21Company Report:Asia Cement(00743.HK).28Company Report:Sinoma(03323.HK).32Company Report:CNBM(03323.HK).37Disclaimer.41,See the last page for disclaimer,Page 2 of 41,Cementand
15、ConstructionMaterialSector水泥建材行业,SectorReport,2November2012,Cement and Construction Material SectorSector Rating:UnderperformWe are pessimistic about cement demand in the long run,mainly because“4trn Investment Plan”,Public House Planand overinvestment in 3rd 81%of 4 horizontal and 4 vertical high s
16、peed railway network with total length of16,000km will be completed by the end of 2012 and new projects only start in West China and South China.3)New floorspace started might peak in 2012.Public house construction will began to fall and house inventories keep rising in 3rd&4th tiercities,accumulati
17、ng oversupply risk.GFA under construction will reach 5.7bn sqm by 2012,assuming dwelling space percapita of 30sqm,enough to accommodate 200mn people.Cement demand might peak in 2012-2013.Cement and clinker production volumes reached 1.59bn tonnes and 0.95bntonnes,up 6.7%and 0.2%respectively,which me
18、ans demand has already ceased to grow if we ignore cement productsdifferences.As infrastructure investment reduced and property investment slows,we consider cement demand might reduce,leading to more competition and more volatile cement price.According to NDRC,currently there are 216 new clinker lin
19、esunder construction,which means total cement capacities might exceed 3.0bn tonnes,far over possible peak level demand of2.2bn tonnes.Cement industry investment rating is“Underperform”.Currently,investment accounted for 46%of Chinas GDP,inwhich property investment accounted for 16%.These 2 figures a
20、re almost twice the peak of US and Japan in their100 years economy history.We believe Chinas economy is reforming in next decade and the chances that new governmentconducts another round of investment plan are small.Highway investment and newly construction GFA constantdeclines are the most negative
21、 catalysts in the future.We consider Conchs valuation is too expensive and its long termvaluation level will reduce along with cement demand.Our top pick is BBMG,with TP at HKD7.5.We recommend ReduceConch and CNBM,with TP of HKD20.0 and HKD6.0.Infrastructure Demand Might Peak in 2012Chinas urbanizat
22、ion might decelerate from 2012.From recent statistic projections in United Nations,we get that Chinaspopulation might peak at 2025,reaching 1.4bn people with urbanization rate of 65%.Furthermore,Chinas urbanization speedmight begin to decelerate from 2011.From 2011 to 2015,annual people immigrant fr
23、om rural areas to urban areas will reacharound 20.26mn and this figure will fall 16%to 16.96mn from 2015 to 2020,which means urbanization speed will fall sharplyafter 2015,for next several decades.Urbanization deceleration,which means commodities demand from new urban arrivalswill began to shrink,mi
24、ght exert great impacts in both infrastructure investment and property investment.Table 1:Chinas Urbanization Progress Projections by United Nations,Year20052006200720082009201020112012E2013E,Urbanization rate%43.0%44.3%45.9%47.0%48.3%49.2%50.5%51.7%53.0%,Total PopulationMillion1,3081,3141,3211,3281
25、,3351,3411,3481,3551,361,Urban PopulationMillion562.1582.9606.3624.0645.1660.3680.5700.8721.1,Urban population increasesMillion19.320.823.517.721.115.220.320.320.3,See the last page for disclaimer,Page 3 of 41,million,2035E,2034E,2033E,2032E,2031E,2030E,2029E,2028E,2027E,2026E,2025E,2024E,2023E,2022
26、E,2021E,2020E,2019E,2018E,2017E,2016E,2015E,2014E,2013E,2012E,2011,2010,million,2035E,2034E,2033E,2032E,2031E,2030E,2029E,2028E,2027E,2026E,2025E,2024E,2023E,2022E,2021E,2020E,2019E,2018E,2017E,2016E,2015E,2014E,2013E,2012E,2011,2010,2009,2008,2007,2006,SectorReport,CementandConstructionMaterialSect
27、or水泥建材行业,2November2012,2014E2015E2016E2017E2018E2019E2020E2021E2022E2023E2024E2025E,54.2%55.4%56.4%57.4%58.5%59.5%60.5%61.3%62.1%63.0%63.8%64.7%,1,3681,3741,3801,3851,3901,3941,3981,4011,4041,4061,4081,409,741.3761.6778.5795.5812.4829.4846.4859.5872.5885.6898.7911.8,20.320.317.017.017.017.017.013.11
28、3.113.113.113.1,Source:Guotai Junan International,United Nations.,Figure-1:Chinas Population will Peak in 2025,Figure-2:Urbanization Speed Might Peak in 2012,1,4201,400,61%1,398,65%1,409,68%1,407,71%1,394,80%70%,2520,20.26,55%,60%,16.96,1,380,1,374,50%,15,13.09,49%,1,360,40%,10,9.17,1,341,1,3401,320
29、,30%20%10%,50,5.36,1,300,0%,Annual Urban People Increment,Total Population,Urbanization rate,Average Annual Urban Poeple Increment In Five Year,Source:United Nations，Guotai Junan International.,Source：United Nations，Guotai Junan International.,Infrastructure investment might peak in 2011-2012.This y
30、ear is not 2008,when Government increased lots of investmentprojects in the coming year.In 2009,infrastructure investment reached RMB967bn,up 42.5%yoy,boosting material demand.We expect road FAI and railway FAI to decline by 15.0%yoy and 8.1%yoy respectively in 2013,their investment scale woulddecli
31、ne significantly after 2013 and 2015 respectively,while waterway FAI and urban transit FAI would still have stablelong-term growth.We expect road FAI and railway FAI to reach RMB1 trillion and RMB560 billion respectively in 2013,down15.0%and 8.1%.According to the Twelfth Five-Year Plan,total transpo
32、rtation FAI(excluding railway)is going to reachRMB6.2 trillion during 2011-15,we estimate that 83%of such,or RMB5.1 trillion,will be invested in road FAI.We expect roadFAI to reach RMB1.17 trillion and RMB1 trillion in 2012 and 2013 respectively,after 2013,annual road FAI would decline toRMB850 bill
33、ion till 2015.For railway,we expect railway FAI to maintain at more than RMB500 billion annually till 2015.However,we expect the main road and railway networks will be completed by 2015,and annual FAI for road and railway wouldmainly be maintenance and branches,which should be significantly less tha
34、n FAI for main networks.For waterway FAI,weexpect the For FAI,we expect that to remain robust due to its low investment base and cost efficiency.Urban transit FAI shouldremain robust over 2020 due to the cost efficiency and the effectiveness of such transportation in resolving the trafficcongestion
35、problems.Table-2:Infrastructure FAI estimates in 12th Five Year Plan and 13th Five Year Plan,Infrastructure FAI2006200720082009,Highwaybn RMB623649688967,Waterwaybn RMB878999106,Railwaybn RMB209258417705,Urban Transportationbn RMB92102112122,Otherbn RMB28404741,Totalbn RMB1,0391,1381,3621,941,Growth
36、 yoy%9.5%19.7%42.5%,See the last page for disclaimer,Page 4 of 41,km/sq.km,km,SectorReport,CementandConstructionMaterialSector水泥建材行业,2November2012,0,201020112012E2013E2014E2015E2016E2017E2018E2019E2020E11th Five Year Plan12th Five Year Plan13th Five Year Plan,1,1481,2601,1701,00085085060061262463764
37、94,0755,1303,122,117141150150150150155159164169174497741820,8435916105605205103503573643713792,4312,7911,821,1321301501701902102212322432552685608501,218,5646656565656769717375212306355,2,2962,1672,1451,9451,7751,7851,3921,4291,4661,5051,5467,7769,8177,338,18.3%-5.6%-1.0%-9.3%-8.7%0.6%-22.0%2.6%2.6%
38、2.7%2.7%26.2%-25.3%,Source：Wind，Guotai Junan International.New orders decline in road and railway construction from listed construction companies in 1H12 showed a fadingtrend in road and railway investment.According to China Communication Construction(1800.HK)and China RailwayConstruction(1186.HK)s
39、1H12 reports,new orders in road and railway construction both decline sharply and the companiesdont think new orders in these 2 sectors in next several years would catch up.Currently,Chinas highway network density inEast China has exceeded over 30%of that in Japan,which means highway network constru
40、ction in East China is close tocompletion and more road investment will come out in West China.However,total road investment is fading,from the peaklevel in 2010-2011.For railway construction,in recent 3Q12 tele-conference calls in China Communication Construction(1800.HK),they estimated that in 201
41、3-2015 China has to finish 2000km high speed railway construction and total high speedrailway target was raised to around 18,000km.However,we can conclude that the annual target of high speed railway is still33%below that in 2012,which also means that railway construction reached its peak level in 2
42、012 and equipments purchasemight account for more proportion in next 3 years.,Figure-3:Chinas Highway Network Density by Area,Figure-4:Latest High Speed Railway Construction Plan,35.0,20,000,New Target 18,000 Km,120%,30.025.020.0,30,17,23,18,00016,00014,00012,000,111%3,000,2,000,2,000,2,000,100%80%6
43、0%40%,15.010.05.0,4,9,10,0008,0006,0004,0002,000,2,3586,000,1,4218,358-40%,9,779,12,779-33%,14,7790%,16,7790%,20%0%-20%-40%,0.0,East China CentralChina West China,Domestive,Japan,-60%,Avg.,2010,2011,2012E,2013E,2014E,2015E,Highw ay Netw ork Density(Km/sqm)Source:CEIC，Guotai Junan International.See t
44、he last page for disclaimer,Annual High Speed Railw ay Construction Competion TargetTotal High Speed Railw ay LengthAnnual High Speed Railw ay Construction Competion Target YoYSource：China Communication Construction(1800.HK)，Guotai Junan International.Page 5 of 41,bnRMB,bnRMB,1H08,2H08,1H09,2H09,1H1
45、0,2H10,1H11,2H11,1H12,1H08,2H08,1H09,2H09,1H10,2H10,1H11,2H11,1H12,bnRMB,bnRMB,1H08,2H08,1H09,2H09,1H10,2H10,1H11,2H11,1H12,1H08,2H08,1H09,2H09,1H10,2H10,1H11,2H11,1H12,SectorReport,CementandConstructionMaterialSector水泥建材行业,2November2012,Figure-5:Road Construction New Orders from ChinaCommunication
46、Construction(1800.HK)and ChinaRailway Construction(1186.HK),Figure-6:Railway Construction New Orders from ChinaCommunication Construction(1800.HK)and ChinaRailway Construction(1186.HK),140120100,150%100%50%,300250200,600%500%400%300%,80,60,0%,150,200%,40200,-50%-100%-150%,100500,100%0%-100%-200%,Chi
47、na Railw ay Construction(1186.HK)China Communication Construction Ltd(1800.HK)HoHYoYSource:China Communication Construction(1800.HK)and China RailwayConstruction(1186.HK),Guotai Junan International.Figure-7:Urban Transit Construction New Orders fromChina Communication Construction(1800.HK)and ChinaR
48、ailway Construction(1186.HK),China Railw ay Construction(1186.HK)China Communication Construction Ltd(1800.HK)HoHYoYSource:China Communication Construction(1800.HK)and China RailwayConstruction(1186.HK),Guotai Junan International.Figure-8:Waterway and port Construction New Ordersfrom China Communica
49、tion Construction(1800.HK)andChina Railway Construction(1186.HK),504540,500%400%,6050,80%60%40%,3530,300%,40,20%0%,2520151050-5,200%100%0%-100%,3020100,-20%-40%-60%-80%-100%-120%,China Railw ay Construction(1186.HK)China Communication Construction Ltd(1800.HK),China Railw ay Construction(1186.HK),Yo
50、Y,HoH,HoHYoY,Source:China Communication Construction(1800.HK)and China RailwayConstruction(1186.HK),，Guotai Junan International.,Source:China Communication Construction(1800.HK)and China RailwayConstruction(1186.HK),Guotai Junan International.,New construction area in property sector might peak in 2
