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1、,33,7,57,79,95,66,92,115,Asia Capital Markets Monitor,April 2009The Asia Capital Markets Monitor(ACMM)reviews recent developments in emergingAsias stock,bond,and currency marketsalong with their outlook,risks,and policyimplications.This inaugural issue features aspecial section“Bringing Life to Asia
2、n MoneyMarkets.”The ACMM covers the capitalmarkets of the Peoples Republic of China;Hong Kong,China;India;Indonesia;Republicof Korea;Malaysia;Philippines;Singapore;Taipei,China;Thailand;and Viet Nam.ContentsGlobal and Regional EnvironmentEquity MarketsBond MarketsCurrency MarketsNon-deliverable Forw
3、ards MarketsSpecial Section:Bringing Life toAsias Money Markets 111BoxesReshaping the Global FinancialArchitecture 21Funding Fiscal Stimulus Packages 62Shaping Yield CurvesLearning from Earlier MistakesRepublic of Korea and ThailandInside Money MarketsHow to reach usAsian Development BankOffice of R
4、egional Economic Integration6 ADB Avenue,Mandaluyong City1550 Metro Manila,PhilippinesTelephone+63 2 632 6688Facsimile+63 2 636 2183E-mailasianbondsonline_infoadb.org,asianbondsonline.adb.orgEmerging Asian Capital Markets:A Regional UpdateHighlightsGlobal and Regional Environment Amid global recessi
5、on,financial markets are showing signs ofstabilizing as aggressive policy measures gain traction.Equities worldwide have seen a bear market rally since mid-March,with volatility easing if still elevated.Even if markets have reached bottom,the road to recovery willlikely be long and hard.Long-term go
6、vernment bond yields have started edging up,asrecord government issuance to fund financial rescue and fiscalstimulus packages test government creditworthiness.Money market spreads have gradually tightened with extensiveliquidity injections,though they remain high compared with pre-September 2008 lev
7、els.Emerging Asias Market Performance and Outlook The financial outlook for emerging Asia is less bleak than for otherregions,with net private capital inflows to the regions capitalmarkets expected to remain positive this year,if down sharply fromtheir 2007 peak.Equity markets across emerging Asia s
8、how signs of a tentativerecovery,as valuation indicators have begun to look attractive.Any sustained recovery,however,could be delayed as uncertaintyover the severity and length of the global financial crisis andrecession weighs down investor sentiment.Local currency bond issuance should expand in 2
9、009 as fiscal policymoves center stage in the fight against recession and governmentbond issuance rises to finance fiscal stimulus packages.Rising bond yields associated with increased government bondissuance may raise funding costs of fiscal stimulus packages.Most emerging Asian currencies fell sha
10、rply against the US dollargiven massive deleveraging and heightened risk aversion.Growing cross-border transactions,rapid investment inflows,andspeculative positioning have driven emerging Asias non-deliverableforwards markets.Continued overleaf,ABCP,ABM,ABS,ABMI,ADB,ALBI,ASEAN+3,BI,BIS,BNM,CDS,CP,C
11、PI,EU,FDI,FDIC,FX,G3,G20,GARCH,HKMA,IT,IMF,IPO,Korea,LCY,LIBOR,MAS,MBS,Acronyms,Abbreviations,and NotesAsset-Backed Commercial PaperAsia Bond Monitorasset-backed securitiesAsian Bond Markets InitiativeAsian Development BankAsian Local Bond Index(HSBC),Special Section:Bringing Life to Asian Money Mar
12、kets Money markets are central to capital allocation,the efficientdistribution of liquidity among financial institutions,and the hedgingof short-term risks;they act as an aggregator and clearing house forliquidity and are key to price discovery for financial instruments.,ASEAN,Association of Southea
13、st Asian Nations,ASEAN plus Peoples Republic of China,Japan,and Republic of KoreaBank IndonesiaBank for International SettlementsBank Negara Malaysiacredit default swapcommercial paperconsumer price indexEuropean Unionforeign direct investmentFederal Deposit Insurance Corporationforeign exchangeeuro
14、zone,Japan,and United States,Although the relative underdevelopment of money markets inemerging Asia helped insulate the region from the worst effects ofthe global financial turmoil,all money markets experienced somedegree of dislocation.Building vibrant,resilient money markets in the region will re
15、quireauthorities to ensure market confidence,depth,and liquidity,while consistently updating the supervisory and regulatoryenvironment.,G8GDPMSCI MDB NIE NDF OECDOIS OREIOTCPBOCPRCq-o-qRBIreposaar SBVUSUS FedWTOy-o-yYTD,Group of 8Group of 20Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticitygr
16、oss domestic productHong Kong Monetary Authorityinformation technologyInternational Monetary Fundinitial public offeringRepublic of Korealocal currencyLondon Interbank Offered RateMonetary Authority of Singaporemortgage-backed securitiesMorgan Stanley Capital Internationalmultilateral development ba
17、nknewly industrialized economynon-deliverable forwardOrganisation for Economic Co-operationand DevelopmentOvernight Index SwapOffice of Regional Economic Integrationoverthe-counterPeoples Bank of ChinaPeoples Republic of Chinaquarter-on-quarterReserve Bank of Indiarepurchase agreementseasonally-adju
18、sted annualized rateState Bank of Viet NamUnited StatesUnited States Federal ReserveWorld Trade Organizationyear-on-yearyear-to-date,Despite the diversity among emerging Asian markets,there is acommon architecture that can enhance the development of moneymarkets:-A transparent and robust legal and r
19、egulatory framework;-Prudent regulation and effective risk management practices;and-Continued liberalization of domestic financial markets and bettercross-border collaboration.,bp=basis pointsNote:To conform with market practice,the Asia Bond Monitoruses two-letter official ISO Country Codes and thr
20、ee-lettercurrency codes rather than ADBs standard symbols.The Asia Capital Markets Monitor April 2009was prepared by ADBs Office of RegionalEconomic Integration and does not necessarilyreflect the views of ADBs Board of Governorsor the countries they represent.,0,1,35.5,1,Emerging Asian Capital Mark
21、ets at a GlanceFigure H1:World GDP,1 World TradeVolume,2 and Growth(y-o-y change,%),151296,Trade4.0,12.3,11.0,5.2 6.2,Global economic activity slows atan alarming speed,recession setsin,and trade volumes plummet.,3-1.0-3-61981 1985,1.51989,GDP Growth1993 1997 2001,-1.0-3.52005 2009f3,Export Volume.2
22、GDP=gross domestic product.3f=forecast.Sources:Asian Development Outlook 2009,Asian Development Bank;WorldEconomic Outlook Database(Oct 2008),Global Economic Policies and Prospectsfor the G20 Meeting of the Ministers and Central Bank Governors,InternationalMonetary Fund.Figure H2:Writedowns and Capi
23、tal Raisedby Major Banks since July 2007(USD billion,as of 31 Mar 2009),140012001000800600,1295.41113.1,869.8,646.3,Asset WritedownsCapital Raised,The global banking systemremains the weakest link in thechain of global financial andeconomic crises.,400,390.1 397.8,2000,World,Americas,Europe,69.1Asia
24、,Source:Bloomberg.Figure H3:Net Private Capital FlowsEmerging Asia1(USD billion),350300250,Equity FlowsCredit Flows,315,For emerging Asia,the financialoutlook is less bleak than for otherregions,with net private capital,20015010050,179,Private Flows,201.9112.9,85.765,inflows to the regions capitalma
25、rkets expected to remainpositive this year.,0,-50-100,1995,1997,-63.31999,2001,2003,2005,2007,-20.82009forecast,Refers to Peoples Republic of China;India;Indonesia;Malaysia;Philippines;Republic of Korea;and Thailand.Source:Institute of International Finance.,254,1,-10,-20,0,1,Figure H4:10-year and 2
26、-yearGovernment Bond Yield Spreads(%per annum),3.02.52.01.51.00.5 eurozone,United States0.58,2.10,2.511.871.800.930.91Japan,A sharp rise in government bondsupply to finance financial rescueand fiscal stimulus packages arestarting to put upward pressureon long-term bond yields.,0.0,-0.5,-0.22,-1.0Jan
27、-Mar-May-Jul-Sep-Dec-Feb-Apr-Jun-Sep-Nov-Jan-Mar-07 07 07 07 07 07 08 08 08 08 08 09 09Source:Datastream.Figure H5:3-Month LIBOR minus OIS1Spreads(basis points),40035030025020015010050,110,362UnitedStatesUnitedKingdomeurozone,1229883,Money market spreads havegradually narrowed withextensive liquidit
28、y injections,although they remain elevatedcompared with pre-September2008 levels.,0,9,-50Jan-07,Apr-07,Jul-07,Nov-07,Feb-08,May-Sep-08 08,Dec-08,Mar-09,OIS=Overnight Index Swap.Sources:Staff calculations based on Bloomberg data.Figure H6:Bear Markets in Asia1(%change),-30-40,Current Oct-2007-Present
29、Asian Financial CrisisJul-1997-Sep-1998,Emerging Asias equity marketsshow tentative signs of stabilizingafter being hit hard by the globalfinancial crisis.,-50-60-70,-66.4-65.3,-55.8,IT CrashMar-2000Oct-2002,0,2,4,6,8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32,MonthBased on Morgan Stanley Capital Internati
30、onal(MSCI)Asia(excluding Japan)index.Source:Bloomberg.,120,buys Bear Stearns,100,80,60,40,50,1,3,2008,2007,3,1,3,Figure H7:MSCI IndexesEmerging Asia1(2 Jan 2007=100),160140,BNP Paribashedge fundscollapse,US housing activityslowed in the thirdquarter of 2007,Equity markets across emergingAsia show si
31、gns of a tentative,recovery,as valuation indicatorshave begun to look attractive;still,JPMorgan ChaseThe US Federal Reservecuts the discount rate Lehman Brothers declaresby 50 basis points bankruptcy;Bank of Americatakes over Merrill LynchPRC 3rd quarter GDP growthcontinued to slow registering a sin
32、gledigit growth for the first time in 5 years,US bails outFannie Mae andFreddie Mac6355,the road to sustained recoverycould be long and hard.,Jan-07,May-07,Sep-07,Feb-08,Jun-08,Nov-08,Mar-09,Refers to Peoples Republic of China;India;Indonesia;Republic of Korea;Malay-sia;Philippines;Taipei,China;and
33、Thailand.2PRC=Peoples Republic of China.GDP=Gross domestic product.Source:Morgan Stanley Capital International(MSCI)Barra.Figure H8:Total Bonds Outstanding2007 and 2008(USD trillion),C hina,P eoples R ep.ofK orea,R ep.ofIndiaMalays iaThailandS ingaporeHong K ong,C hinaIndones iaP hilippinesViet Nam,
34、LCY bond issuance is expected toincrease in 2009 as fiscal stimuluspackages have become a primarytool of governments acrossthe region in the fight againstrecession.,0,0.5,1.0,1.5,2.0,2.5,Figure H9:Regional Currencies1(1 July 2008 to 30 March 2009,%change),Korean won-24.9Indonesian rupiahEU2 euroIndi
35、an rupeeMalaysian ringgitSingaporean dollarPhilippine pesoThai bahtVietnamese dongPRC renminbiHong Kong dollarJapanese yen,-20.2-16.4-15.4,-10.6-10.5-7.0-6.1-5.3,0.30.6,9.0,Most emerging Asian currenciesfell sharply against the US dollaramid massive deleveraging andheightened risk aversion;whilethey
36、 have stabilized somewhatlately,volatility remains high.,-30.0,-25.0,-20.0,-15.0,-10.0,-5.0,0.0,5.0,10.0,15.0,Latest closing as of 30 March 2009,based on the USD value of local currency.Negative values indicate depreciation.2EU=European Union.PRC=Peoples Republic of China.Source:OREI staff calculati
37、ons based on Reuters data.,2007,2008,2007,2008,2007,2008,2007,2008,2007,2008,2007,2008,2007,2008,2007,2008,2007,2008,1,1,Figure H10:Implied Volatility ofExchange RatesASEAN-4(3-month ATM1),504540353025201510 Philippines50Jan-Jun-Nov-05 05 05,Apr-Sep-Feb-06 06 07,IndonesiaThailandMalaysiaJul-Dec-May-
38、Oct-Mar-07 07 08 08 09,23.913.510.910.4,Foreign exchange volatility is at itshighest level in a decade;althoughthe current global credit crisisinfluenced volatility less than pastfinancial crises.,At-the-money strike.Source:Bloomberg.Table H1:Average Daily NDF Turnover(USD million),20082009,20032004
39、,Growing cross-border transactions,rapid investment inflows,and,CNYINRKRWIDRPHPMYR,1,0008003,000400500500,5020-50700-1,0005020-30,speculative positioning are drivingemerging Asias non-deliverableforward markets.,Source:Deutsche Bank.Figure H11:Outstanding Short-Term DebtSecurities1(%of GDP)2,50,KR,M
40、oney markets require further,403020,SG,CH,TH,HK,PH,P riv a teG o v e rn m e n t,development to effectivelyallocate capital,efficientlydistribute liquidity among financial,10,MY,IN,ID,institutions,and hedge short-term,0Note:KR=Republic of Korea;SG=Singapore;CH=Peoples Republic of China;TH=Thailand;HK
41、=Hong Kong,China;PH=Philippines;MY=Malaysia;IN=India;ID=Indonesia.Debt securities with remaining maturity up to 1 year,including those issued in domesticand international markets.Private sector debt covers securities issued by financialinstitutions and the corporate sector.Domestic securities for 20
42、08 are as of September2008.2Fiscal Year 2008 gross domestic product data for India is World Economic Outlookestimate;for Rep of Korea estimate from published fiscal year budget ratios.Sources:OREI Staff calculations based on data from Bank for International Settlements;CEIC;World Economic Outlook Up
43、date Oct 08,International Monetary Fund.,risks.,2,Emerging Asian Capital MarketsA Regional Update,1.Global and Regional Environment,Global Financial Market Developments,Amid global recession,financial markets are showingsigns of stabilizing as aggressive policy measuresgain traction.,Having traverse
44、d rough waters in 2008 and early 2009,globalfinancial markets are starting to show signs of stabilizing,with stock prices around the world edging upward and creditconditions improving,albeit slowly.Since February,globalindicators have been sending some signals that the bottommay be near(Figures 1.1a
45、,1.1b,1.1c,1.1d).Extensivepolicy actions to prevent a major downturn and restore marketconfidence are also gaining traction,especially with the latestplan by the United States(US)Treasury to buy up toxic assetsfrom banks.The recent quantitative easing by the US FederalReserve(US Fed)is also providin
46、g some relief to credit markets,tentatively halting the markets downfall.,Equity markets worldwide have experienced a bearmarket rally since mid-March after the major sell-offs in mid-September.,A synchronized downturn in major industrial countries andthe growing spillover effects on emerging market
47、 economieshave weighed heavily on global equity markets.The year-endrebound was cut short when most equity markets around theglobe experienced renewed weakness after worse-than-expectedearnings reports and fresh economic data pointed to a deeper-than-expected recession in early 2009.But attractive v
48、aluationsare starting to draw investors attention in a very low(and insome cases zero)interest rate environment.Priceearningsratios have dropped as well,even as earnings expectationsdeclined further in early 2009.Equity valuations in emergingmarkets also fell to very low levels,particularly in Centr
49、al and,This section was prepared by Cyn-Young Park.For any inquiries,please contact,cyparkadb.org.,A bear market rally refers to an increase in equity prices during a primary down-,ward market trend,or“bear market.”,5,60,G l o B A l A n d R E G i o n A l E n v i R o n m E n T,Figure 1.1a:Baltic Dry
50、Index114000,Figure 1.1b:Copper Future Prices(USDper lb),12000,11440,4,4.0,10000,8000,3,6000,2,1.8,40002000,1646,1,1.3,0Jan-07,Apr-07,Jun-07,Sep-07,Dec-07,Mar-08,Jun-08,Sep-08,Dec-08,Mar-09,0Jan-07,Apr-07,Jun-Sep-07 07,Dec-Mar-Jun-07 08 08,Sep-Dec-Mar-08 08 09,Figure 1.1c:JPMorgan Global Manufacturin
