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1、CCY,1-wk,-1.6,1.3,9.2,3.8,0.0,2.6,11.3,4.2,4.9,7.1,16.6,23.3,8.5,6.8,10.5,4.8,4.8,7.2,ROE,EV/EBITDA,2012E,(X),3.0,2.9,2.7,2.6,2.8,3.9,2.5,3.4,January 24,2013China:Energy:GasEquity ResearchRising LNG price in January;utilization rebounded;tariff pass-through in Chengdu completed,ASP continued to surg
2、e with tight gas,LNG vehicles roll-out hastened in various cities,supply;utilization rebounded slightly,With a collective roll-out of LNG vehicle plans in,GAS SECTOR SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCEShare Absolute share price,We estimate total capacity of LNG liquefaction,Dec/Jan,we estimate c.76,000 vehicles
3、 will be in,Ticker,Company Rating,price23-Jan-12,performance(%)1-mo 3-mos YTD,plants increased to the current 22.1mn m3/day from,place by 2015,based on all the plans launched so far,0384.HK0135.HK,China Gas Buy*Kunlun Buy,HKDHKD,6.8816.7,11.13.7,64.220.5,12.83.2,21.9mn m3/day in early December,based
4、 on SCIdata.The industrys weighted average utilizationhas rebounded from a recent low in end-December(35%)to 47%now,as the gas supply shortageslightly eased following the recent temperature,(vs.61,864 up to Nov 2012).Notably,Beijing will add3,100 LNG buses in 2013;c.6,000 vehicles will beconverted t
5、o LNG vehicles and 1,500 LNG trailerswill be added in Shenzhen by 2014;Nanjing will alsoput 1,500 LNG vehicles in operation by 2014.As LNG,1193.HK CR Gas Neutral HKD 16.762688.HK ENN Energy Neutral HKD 37.30392.HK BEHL Neutral HKD 52.9Overall gas sectorSource:Bloomberg,Goldman Sachs Research estimat
6、esGAS SECTOR VALUATION COMPARISONP/E(X)P/B(X)(%)Company 2012E 2013E 2012E 2013E 2012E,increase.Kunlun plants weighted averageutilization edged up to 42%now vs.the December,vehicle is a key growth driver for Buy-rated Kunlun,these developments bode well for the company.,China Gas*KunlunCR GasENN Ener
7、gy,22.419.320.421.2,17.717.318.418.5,13%18%16%20%,10.59.910.310.8,average of 46%,as the Bayan Nuur plant resumed,BEHL,17.619.9,15.217.2,1.62.4,1.42.2,9%13%,15.312.1,production.We expect it to further improve in thecoming weeks as Guangan plant has also resumedproduction.Meanwhile,the industry ASP fu
8、rthersurged to Rmb3.41/m3 in the week ended January19,from Rmb3.04/m3 in end-December as gassupply remained tight.Looking ahead,we expectutilization to edge up gradually as temperature,Tariff pass-through in Chengdu completedThe pass-through was completed in Chengdu onDecember 31 with tariff for non
9、-residential userslifted from Rmb2.59/m3 to Rmb2.86/m3 after Sichuanannounced city gate price unifying on December 7.Ittook CR Gas roughly 3 weeks to complete theprocess.We believe CR Gas(Neutral-rated),as the,*The stock is on our Conviction List*Fiscal year-ended March,adjusted to reflect calendar
10、year end.Source:Bloomberg,Goldman Sachs Research estimatesRELATED RESEARCHChina Gas Holdings:Proposed acquisition targets path toHK$400mn 2014 profit pledge,December 19,2012China Gas Holdings:First Take:Acquisition of Fortune Gas astrategic milestone,December 18,2012,further trends up,which may lead
11、 to ASP pressure,in our view.In the medium term,we project that22.6mn m3/day additional capacity will be launchedin the next 12-18 months,which we believe shouldlimit further pricing and utilization increase.Frank He+852-2978-7414 Goldman Sachs(Asia)L.L.C.Simon Cheung,CFA+852-2978-6102 Goldman Sachs
12、(Asia)L.L.C.Alex Ye+852-2978-6666 Goldman Sachs(Asia)L.L.C.Janet Lu+852-2978-1642 Goldman Sachs(Asia)L.L.C.The Goldman Sachs Group,Inc.,largest player in Sichuan,is set to benefit.We alsosaw more frequent downstream price adjustmentslately,e.g.,Zhenjiang and Xuzhou both lifted theresidential gas tar
13、iff in December.We believe thissignals further upstream price reform ahead.Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companiescovered in its research reports.As a result,investors should be awarethat the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect theobjectivity of this report.Inve
14、stors should consider this report as only asingle factor in making their investment decision.For Reg ACcertification and other important disclosures,see the DisclosureAppendix,or go to Analystsemployed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as researchanalysts with FINRA in the U.S.Global
15、 Investment Research,Jan09,Mar09,May09,Jul09,Sep09,Nov09,Jan10,Mar10,May10,Jul10,Sep10,Nov10,Jan11,Mar11,May11,Jul11,Sep11,Nov11,Jan12,Mar12,May12,Jul12,Sep12,Nov12,Sep10,Sep11,Mar11,May11,Mar12,Nov10,Nov11,May12,Sep12,Jul10,Jul11,Jan11,Jan12,Jul12,Jan08,Mar08,May08,Jul08,Sep08,Nov08,Jan09,Mar09,May
16、09,Jul09,Sep09,Nov09,Jan10,Mar10,May10,Jul10,Sep10,Nov10,Jan11,Mar11,May11,Jul11,Sep11,Nov11,Jan12,Mar12,May12,Jul12,Sep12,Nov12,Feb11,Apr11,Sep11,Apr12,Jun11,Jul12,Nov12,Mar12,Dec11,Aug12,Aug11,May12,May11,Nov12,Dec12,Oct11,Oct12,Jan12,2,January 24,2013Exhibit 1:Imports accounted for 28%of total ga
17、s demand in NovemberNatural gas apparent demand breakdown by source,China:Energy:GasExhibit 2:Gas apparent demand in Nov.grew 15.1%yoy,vs.14.7%in 11M12Natural gas demand vs.power generation monthly growth and PMI,(Bn cubicmeters),30.0%,56.0%,16.014.012.010.08.06.04.02.0,35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%,25.0%2
18、0.0%15.0%10.0%5.0%0.0%5.0%10.0%,55.0%54.0%53.0%52.0%51.0%50.0%49.0%48.0%47.0%46.0%45.0%,Domesticproduction,Import,%fromimport,Naturalgasdemand(YoY)(LHS)PMI(RHS),Powergeneration(YoY)(LHS),Exhibit 3:Average LNG import prices stayed flat mom in DecemberAverage import LNG prices in China vs.Brent,Exhibi
19、t 4:Ex-factory LNG prices further rebounded to Rmb3.41/m3 in JanuaryEx-factory LNG prices and capacity utilization of domestic LNG plants,(US$/bbl),(Rmb/cum),(Rmb/cum),140120100806040200WTIspotprice(LHS)Source:CEIC,Goldman Sachs Research.,LNGimportprice(RHS),3.503.002.502.001.501.000.50,3.603.403.20
20、3.002.802.602.40AvgdomesticLNGexfactoryprice(LHS)Source:SCI,Goldman Sachs Research.,80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%LNGcapacityutilization(RHS),Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research,3,3,January 24,2013,China:Energy:Gas,Exhibit 5:The average utilization of LNG liquefaction plants in China rebounded to 4
21、7%as of January 18,due mainly to a slight ease of the gas supply shortageas temperature went up;Kunluns utilization edged up to 42%as well,as the Bayan Nuur plant resumed production;average selling prices further surged toRmb2.96/m3 for Kunlun with prices up broadly across its plantsUtilization and
22、average selling prices of LNG liquefaction plants in China,Plant utilization(%),Average selling price(Rmb per m3),Project,Province,Capacity,Week ending,Week ending,000 m per day 9-Nov 16-Nov 23-Nov 30-Nov,7-Dec 14-Dec 21-Dec 28-Dec,4-Jan 11-Jan 18-Jan,10-Nov 17-Nov 24-Nov,1-Dec,8-Dec,15-Dec,22-Dec,2
23、9-Dec,5-Jan,12-Jan,19-Jan,GuanghuiKunlun BoruiChina City Natural GasKunlun GeermuNingxia Clean EnergyNingxia HanasiXinlianhaiKunlun LanzhouYongjing SaipuShitaiHengtaiShiyiHengtongXinshengWanteKunlun Bayan NuurXianghuangqi Green EnergyXingxing EnergyXinyuanJingbian XilanZhongyuan Green EnergyYanchang
24、 Group-NanniwanYanchang Group-GanguyiHuayou AnsaiQinshui XinaoShanxi YigaoLianshengHuixinKunlun GuanganDatong Guangyuan Ph 1Chongqing MinshengHuagang GasGreen Energy Hi-techHenan AncaiSainty Natural GasTaian Shenzhen Natural GasSuzhou Huafeng LNGJiangsu JiangyinCNOOC Gas&PowerKunlun ShennanTiandeTia
25、njiTianxiangJilin JixingQujing HuaxinTotal-simple averageTotal-weighted averageKunlun-weighted average,XinjiangXinjiangQinghaiQinghaiNingxiaNingxiaGansuGansuGansuInner MongoliaInner MongoliaInner MongoliaInner MongoliaInner MongoliaInner MongoliaInner MongoliaInner MongoliaInner MongoliaInner Mongol
26、iaShaanxiShaanxiShaanxiShaanxiShaanxiShanxiShanxiShanxiSichuanSichuanSichuanChongqingHebeiHenanHenanTianjinShandongJiangsuJiangsuGuangdongHainanJilinJilinJilinJilinYunnan,150030045035060030004803002003003001003001501003009010003005001000500100020002009005001000100030015030030010012015010550600430150
27、2005020020022,12522,1254,530,67%50%56%71%50%33%38%50%75%90%90%100%67%93%100%100%100%90%33%80%90%80%80%100%80%78%40%70%80%67%67%83%50%80%83%80%70%100%0%0%100%50%100%80%n.a.69%66%80%,67%50%44%71%83%43%38%50%75%90%90%100%67%93%100%100%100%40%33%80%90%80%80%75%80%78%40%50%80%60%67%50%50%80%83%80%70%60%0
28、%0%100%50%100%80%n.a.64%62%69%,67%50%44%57%83%33%38%33%75%80%0%100%67%100%100%83%100%90%33%80%80%80%80%75%80%78%40%50%80%60%67%60%83%80%83%80%56%0%0%0%100%50%100%80%n.a.63%61%67%,67%50%44%57%83%33%38%33%75%90%0%100%67%100%100%83%100%90%33%80%80%80%80%75%80%78%40%50%80%60%67%60%83%80%83%80%56%0%0%0%1
29、00%50%100%80%n.a.57%61%67%,67%50%13%57%50%27%0%33%0%90%83%100%50%100%0%83%100%70%33%60%55%80%80%75%80%67%18%50%80%50%67%30%67%80%83%47%56%40%0%0%100%50%100%80%n.a.54%53%66%,67%50%56%86%50%27%0%33%0%33%50%50%17%67%0%60%67%60%33%60%45%80%80%75%80%67%18%45%70%33%67%30%67%80%83%0%56%80%0%0%100%50%100%80
30、%n.a.49%50%62%,67%50%56%86%50%3%0%33%0%67%50%50%17%80%0%83%67%60%33%60%45%80%50%60%80%61%18%45%70%33%67%67%67%80%83%0%56%80%0%0%71%50%100%80%n.a.47%45%57%,87%50%33%86%50%7%0%33%0%67%50%50%17%20%0%0%67%60%20%60%30%80%50%15%80%61%18%45%70%0%67%67%67%80%83%33%22%0%0%0%71%35%0%50%n.a.35%39%33%,87%50%33%
31、86%50%7%0%30%0%67%67%0%0%80%0%0%44%60%0%60%30%80%50%15%60%61%18%45%0%0%67%67%50%80%83%67%0%40%0%0%33%35%0%50%n.a.37%35%19%,67%17%0%86%50%23%0%30%0%50%67%0%0%67%0%0%33%60%0%60%60%0%90%60%60%61%18%60%0%0%67%33%50%80%83%67%0%60%0%0%33%30%80%80%n.a.42%40%36%,67%0%0%86%50%33%0%30%0%67%83%20%17%93%0%100%5
32、0%60%10%60%60%80%90%60%60%61%18%15%0%0%67%80%50%80%83%67%22%60%0%0%71%30%80%80%n.a.47%45%42%,2.411.832.211.942.272.252.272.382.312.332.542.462.562.282.532.452.752.382.622.362.362.352.352.30n.a.2.662.662.802.962.962.962.962.752.893.072.913.503.36n.a.n.a.3.243.343.213.37n.a.2.642.522.43,2.411.832.211.
33、942.272.252.272.382.312.332.542.452.532.282.532.452.752.382.612.362.362.322.322.30n.a.2.662.662.782.962.962.962.982.752.903.092.913.503.36n.a.n.a.3.243.363.213.37n.a.2.632.512.45,2.411.832.211.942.272.252.272.382.312.332.542.452.532.282.532.452.752.382.612.362.362.282.282.30n.a.2.662.662.762.962.962
34、.962.982.772.933.202.913.50n.a.n.a.n.a.3.243.363.213.37n.a.2.622.512.46,2.411.832.211.942.282.272.282.382.312.342.542.452.532.282.532.452.752.402.612.372.372.292.292.41n.a.2.672.672.742.982.972.973.032.792.953.233.063.51n.a.n.a.n.a.3.243.363.213.38n.a.2.632.542.53,2.411.832.211.942.322.422.362.38n.a
35、.2.462.542.472.552.28n.a.2.462.752.552.632.452.452.522.522.49n.a.2.822.762.743.153.053.023.042.963.073.383.143.593.50n.a.n.a.3.313.433.293.42n.a.2.732.622.61,2.411.832.352.032.432.522.502.38n.a.2.652.542.562.722.40n.a.2.602.912.842.792.532.532.702.702.57n.a.3.112.933.003.273.203.023.043.163.263.583.
36、283.693.56n.a.n.a.3.353.433.323.44n.a.2.852.722.64,2.411.832.542.282.472.522.542.38n.a.2.802.732.662.902.53n.a.2.683.052.962.992.712.712.702.702.68n.a.3.163.113.133.363.423.143.143.253.343.643.423.733.71n.a.n.a.3.533.533.503.54n.a.2.962.842.77,2.411.842.542.342.472.522.542.38n.a.2.882.782.693.102.55
37、n.a.2.693.203.033.012.922.922.702.702.70n.a.3.163.203.323.373.463.403.333.473.543.823.603.733.71n.a.n.a.3.603.573.573.84n.a.3.042.892.88,2.411.84n.a.2.492.662.662.812.72n.a.2.983.04n.a.3.132.74n.a.2.903.433.453.223.083.082.892.892.97n.a.3.363.333.753.373.463.763.473.553.643.993.80n.a.3.96n.a.n.a.3.6
38、03.573.574.033.363.222.962.70,2.411.84n.a.2.542.942.922.812.72n.a.2.983.10n.a.n.a.2.87n.a.2.933.553.45n.a.3.083.082.972.972.97n.a.3.573.333.88n.a.n.a.3.763.643.553.684.343.80n.a.3.96n.a.n.a.4.324.294.294.163.363.333.142.91,2.411.84n.a.2.662.942.93n.a.2.82n.a.2.983.10n.a.n.a.2.92n.a.2.973.553.45n.a.3
39、.083.08n.a.n.a.2.97n.a.3.573.333.88n.a.n.a.3.763.643.553.714.343.804.083.96n.a.n.a.4.324.294.294.163.363.413.142.96,Source:SCI,Goldman Sachs Research.Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research,-,-,-,9,4,January 24,2013Exhibit 6:LNG import volumes and prices on average have increased 20%and 24%ytd(up t
40、o November)respectivelyLNG import volumes and prices by receiving terminals and countryLNG import volume(tonnes),LNG import volume yoy,China:Energy:Gas,Terminal,Jan-12,Feb-12,Mar-12,Apr-12,May-12,Jun-12,Jul-12,Aug-12,Sep-12,Oct-12,Nov-12,Ytd,Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Se
41、p-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Ytd,Shenzhen-Dapeng,415,125,349,302,552,027,415,046,479,606,625,655,434,663,635,307,508,318,518,071,352,155,5,285,273,-7%,-13%,8%,-16%,-19%,16%,-34%,10%,-23%,8%,-39%-11%,Fujian-Putian,243,443,190,314,182,458,240,851,182,529,242,778,307,712,271,584,187,953,303,039,181,594,2,534,256
42、,101%,52%,52%,-1%,40%,-17%,4%,-25%,-24%,67%,-25%,7%,Shanghai,111,698,180,158,164,649,59,760,249,618,117,028,246,330,66,260,250,302,177,810,143,567,1,767,179,-55%,36%,-20%,-46%,39%,-16%,43%,16%281%,37%,-18%,9%,Jiangsu-Rudong,407,550,112,618,113,014,227,203,113,970,113,314,228,082,225,628,114,441,176,
43、464,1,832,284,n/a,n/a,n/a,n/a,79%,61%288%,n/a,26%,81%,-26%,n/a,Dalian,125,435,114,384,114,131,113,766,112,539,114,568,113,977,112,932,114,730,228,601,1,265,063,n/a,n/a,n/a,n/a,n/a,n/a,n/a,n/a,n/a,n/a 263%,n/a,Ningbo,-,-,-,-,-,-,-,-,93,819,93,639,-,187,457,n/a,n/a,n/a,n/a,Total,1,303,252,832,392 1,12
44、6,532 1,056,991 1,139,489 1,211,314 1,331,355 1,087,128 1,378,951 1,321,729 1,082,381 12,871,513,60%,26%,34%,24%,18%,16%,13%,4%,20%,55%,-16%20%,Terminal,Average LNG import price(US$/tonne),Average LNG import price yoy,Shenzhen-Dapeng,466,373,505,349,437,633,628,518,543,328,367,479,46%,6%,12%,-35%,3%
45、,38%,35%,11%,-4%,-24%,-30%,4%,Fujian-Putian,222,467,207,218,228,202,279,494,503,206,217,292,6%,22%,-7%,-31%,-54%,-33%,-15%,-5%,32%,2%,4%-14%,ShanghaiJiangsu-RudongDalian,406937870,404961n/a,403965966,405985984,4111,0051,006,4101,0501,044,4311,0671,066,4511,051,455981980,436920920,459886924,426973975
46、,22%n/an/a,-23%n/an/a,-20%n/an/a,18%n/an/a,15%31%n/a,5%46%n/a,14%42%n/a,16%n/an/a,-4%25%n/a,-2%10%n/a,5%-4%-1%,3%n/an/a,Ningbo,982,921,-,952,n/a,n/a,n/a,n/a,Total,602,481,535,528,511,602,624,564,659,459,556,561,96%,23%,24%,18%,15%,42%,44%,14%,19%,11%,2%24%,Country,LNG import volume(tonnes),LNG impor
47、t volume yoy,Qatar,498,284,202,704,320,198,431,709,320,697,409,033,525,541,387,480,612,542,322,810,435,888,4,466,884,708%,118%,75%,136%,105%151%,n/a 113%,124%,110%,21%147%,Australia,259,378,259,216,260,213,324,671,323,724,259,168,255,135,388,873,259,620,388,662,259,415,3,238,077,33%,-1%,-2%,26%,0%,-
48、20%,-21%,20%,-20%,19%,-20%,0%,Indonesia,243,443,125,151,182,458,240,851,182,529,242,778,242,693,239,519,60,542,303,039,181,594,2,244,598,101%,110%,52%,33%,201%,0%,4%,32%,-67%,67%,-25%24%,Malaysia,111,698,180,158,113,661,59,751,249,618,117,028,185,162,8,306,250,284,177,810,143,567,1,597,043,-41%,n/a,
49、-21%,-46%,39%,-35%,-19%,-85%,104%,37%,-18%,5%,Others,190,448,65,163,250,001,62,920,183,308,122,823,62,949,195,964,129,408,61,917,1,324,909,-23%,-74%,94%,-100%,-75%,39%,-69%,-79%,-20%,108%,-68%-43%,Total,1,303,252,832,392,1,126,532,1,056,991,1,139,488,1,211,314 1,331,355 1,087,127,1,378,951,1,321,729
50、,1,082,381,12,871,513,60%,26%,34%,24%,18%,16%,13%,4%,20%,55%,-16%20%,Country,Average LNG import price(US$/tonne),Average LNG import price yoy,QatarAustraliaIndonesiaMalaysiaOthersTotal,938172222406920603,960169215404952481,966168207402663535,9851712184051,395528,1,000173228411983511,1,03818720241087
