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1、Buy,Deutsche BankMarkets Research,GlobalChemicals,PeriodicalGlobal ChemicalsWeekly,Date28 September 2012Tim Jones,News,views and valuationLanxess(LXSG.DE,BUY)Lanxesss recent CMD reinforced its strong organic story with the 2015EBITDA target brought forward a year and new 2018 targets introduced toca
2、pture the growth from longer term projects.Importantly managementemphasised the strict capital discipline for new projects giving confidence thatreturns will not be diluted,making this a lower risk organic growth story.Thisgrowth is supported by global megatrends including demand for greener tireswi
3、th labelling being introduced in Europe with other regions following.At 5x2013E EV/EBITDA and 8x 2013 P/E the stock appears too cheap.BUY.Ashland(ASH.N,BUY)Notwithstanding Ashlands stock being down 6%,August business trendssuggest FQ4 earnings are tracking in-line with expectations of$1.75-$1.80.Whi
4、le FQ4 earnings in the crown jewel Specialty Ingredients business will bedown QoQ,the weakness has been well flagged as it is largely attributable tolower guar pricing.Meanwhile,lower Specialty Ingredients earnings are beingpartially offset by Valvoline where positive demand trends and lower base oi
5、lprices are driving QoQ earnings.To reflect trends quarter-to-date(July&August business trends),we are raising our FQ4 EPS by$0.16 to$1.75,up73%,and bringing our FY12 EPS estimate to$6.51,up 82%.BUYSumitomo Chemical(4005.T,BUY)We lower our FY3/13-FY3/14 earnings forecasts and TP for SumitomoChemical
6、 mainly due to weakness in the basic chemicals and petrochemicalssegments,but maintain our Buy rating.Although earnings improvement lookslikely to be delayed at Petro Rabigh(PRC),we expect stronger earnings growththan at peers from FY3/14 from firm agrochemical sales,increased sales of itsschizophre
7、nia treatment drug being released in the US,and management,Research Analyst(+44)20 754-Martin Dunwoodie,CFAResearch Analyst(+44)20 754-Virginie Boucher-FerteResearch Analyst(+44)20 754-57940virginie.boucher-Oliver ReiffResearch Analyst(+44)20 754-David Begleiter,CFAResearch Analyst(+1)212 250-Takato
8、 Watabe,CMAResearch Analyst(+81)3 5156-Table Of Contents,changes,including financial restructuring.BUY.,Global Valuation,Page 02,Figure 1:European stock performance(%change absolute)Best Performer over the last week 1-week 1-month YTD,12-months,Europe:News&valuationUS:News&valuationAsia/Japan:News&v
9、aluation,Page 03Page 08Page 10,BAYERSYMRISEWorst Performer over the last weekWACKER CHEMIEYULE CATTO,4.43.11-week-4.2-3.8,10.50.41-month-1.917.1,39.728.2YTD-17.91.0,63.343.712-months-35.25.7,Event calendarTop picksAkzoNobel(AKZO.AS),EUR44.96BASF(BASFn.DE),EUR66.55,Page 14BuyBuy,Source:DataStreamFigu
10、re 2:US stock performance(%change absolute),Lanxess(LXSG.DE),EUR65.52Linde(LING.DE),EUR134.60,Buy,Best Performer over the last weekECOLABSHERWIN-WILLIAMSWorst Performer over the last weekOMNOVA SOLUTIONSFULLER H B,1-week2.40.41-week-15.2-11.0,1-month-1.64.31-month-3.12.1,YTD12.666.6YTD62.530.8,12-mo
11、nths27.495.212-months107.556.6,Syngenta(SYNN.VX),CHF347.00,Buy,Source:DataStream_Deutsche Bank AG/LondonAll prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated.Prices are sourcedfrom local exchanges via Reuters,Bloomberg and other vendors.Data is sourced fr
12、om Deutsche Bank and subjectcompanies.Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports.Thus,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors should consider this report as only
13、 a single factor in making their investment decision.DISCLOSURES ANDANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.MICA(P)072/04/2012.,28 September 2012Global Chemicals WeeklyGlobal sector valuationFigure 3:Global sector valuations,Price,Target,Est.Earnings,P/E,EV/EBITDA,Mkt Cap,Rating,Cur.,27/09/
14、2012,Price,FY12E,FY13E,FY12E,FY13E,FY12E,FY13E,(US$m),EUROPE:MAJORS,ArkemaBASFLanxessSolvayYule Catto,BuyBuyBuyHoldHold,EUREUREUREURGBp,73.866.665.592.4166.0,84.074.078.087.0160.0,7.55.67.08.121.4,8.16.18.08.222.3,9.811.89.311.47.8,9.110.98.211.37.5,5.86.06.16.16.5,5.35.65.46.05.9,5,86978,6137,0119,
15、647913,EUROPE:INDUSTRIAL GAS,Air LiquideLinde,HoldBuy,EUREUR,97.9134.6,94.0153.0,5.18.3,5.69.5,19.216.2,17.414.2,9.79.2,8.87.8,39,22930,763,EUROPE:SPECIALTY,AkzoNobelAZ Electronic MaterialsClariantCrodaDSMGivaudanJohnson MattheyLenzingSymriseUmicoreVictrexWacker,BuyBuyHoldBuyHoldSellBuyBuyHoldHoldHo
16、ldHold,EURGBpCHFGBPEURCHFGBPEUREUREURGBPEUR,45.0340.711.42405.039.4891.02445.067.226.340.61336.050.4,56.0400.011.02750.039.0820.02775.088.025.038.01375.047.0,3.30.40.9134.32.851.0156.07.51.62.479.62.6,3.70.41.0148.63.457.4182.67.81.82.785.33.0,13.715.312.517.913.917.515.78.816.016.716.819.0,12.013.6
17、11.216.211.815.513.48.414.315.115.716.8,7.19.16.112.06.711.39.85.110.89.310.44.2,6.48.15.710.96.210.18.55.19.78.19.73.8,13,6482,1013,5735,2738,2758,6236,5892,2604,0015,9141,8133,219,EUROPE:AGROCHEMICALS,ICLK+SSyngentaYara,HoldHoldBuyHold,USDEURUSDNOK,47.537.9347.0284.6,48.040.0400.0310.0,1.13.023.13
18、6.8,1.23.526.832.3,11.312.616.07.7,10.311.013.88.8,8.56.610.74.8,7.96.39.25.0,15,3739,32233,82514,162,EUROPE:PHARMA CHEMS,BayerLonza,BuyHold,EURCHF,68.449.77,71.043.0,5.374.4,6.014.8,12.711.3,11.410.4,9.27.7,8.06.4,72,7472,735,US:MAJORS,CelaneseDowDuPontPPGLyondellBasell,BuyHoldBuyBuyBuy,$,38.229.25
19、0.8115.251.9,50.032.057.0132.055.0,3.81.84.28.05.5,4.62.54.37.05.8,10.015.812.014.59.5,8.211.711.716.58.9,6.65.97.47.94.9,5.65.26.79.14.6,6,02434,03747,48417,64229,675,US:AGROCHEMICALS,MosaicMonsantoPotash Corp.,HoldBuyHold,$,57.791.443.6,62.0100.045.0,5.13.73.5,NA4.43.9,11.424.712.4,NA20.811.2,6.11
20、2.47.1,5.611.16.0,25,24748,77937,463,US:INDUSTRIAL GAS,Air ProductsPraxairAirgas,BuyBuyHold,$,82.7104.483.0,100.0120.085.0,5.55.74.6,6.16.45.3,15.218.518.0,13.416.415.8,8.711.29.1,8.210.48.3,17,23531,2245,484,US:SPECIALTY,AlbemarleCytecValspar,BuyBuyHold,$,52.465.057.1,65.075.052.0,4.52.93.3,5.14.63
21、.6,11.822.517.4,10.414.115.9,7.57.69.8,6.37.19.1,4,7223,0045,227,ASIA,LG ChemHonam PetrochemHanwha Chemical,BuyHoldSell,KRWKRWKRW,33000026300021700,36500025000017000,23713132092258,28501223673376,13.919.99.6,11.611.86.4,8.58.59.0,7.45.66.0,2184775072749,JAPAN,Sumitomo ChemicalJSRNitto DenkoShin-Etsu
22、 Chemical,BuyBuyBuyHold,JPYJPYJPYJPY,202132136854455,280160043004500,16.5114.0310.0247.3,30.6140.9352.5270.8,12.211.611.918.0,6.69.410.516.4,6.64.04.06.3,5.83.33.45.5,4,2504,1027,80324,346,Source:Datastream,Deutsche Bank estimates.Syngenta Share price is in Swiss Francs but reporting is in US dollar
23、s,ICL report in US$while the stock price are in ILS.*For Johnson Matthey FY12E is March ending 2013.For Airgas FY12E is March ending 2013.For Mosaic FY12E is May ending 2013.For Monsanto FY12E is Aug ending 2012.For additional information on all stocks mentioned here please refer to our website at:h
24、ttp:/,Page2,Deutsche Bank AG/London,28 September 2012Global Chemicals WeeklyEurope:valuation&newsflowDSM NV(DSMN.AS,HOLD):DSM has released a press release ahead of itsCapital Market Days(26-27 Sept)in Switzerland.The company has confirmedits 2012(qualitative)outlook and remains cautious with regard
25、to the economicoutlook(as indicated at the Q2 results stage).The Profit Improvement Programfocus has also been reiterated it will generate Euro 150m of benefits by 2014.However,management has provided more clarity on its 2013 targets withEBITDA now growing to“approximately Euro 1.4bn”which is at the
26、 low end ofprevious guidance of Euro 1.4-1.6bn.Management has not referred to the 2013ROCE target of 15%although we understand from IR that this target is stillvalid.While the downgrade to 2013 guidance is disappointing,this is not a majorsurprise with consensus(E1.33bn)and DB(E1.3bn)already forecas
27、ting therevision.We note that this target does include M&A but for the purposes offorecasting we have assumed no more M&A.The 2013 ROCE target remainsunachievable in our view(DB at 10.4%,consensus at 11.2%)so we expect thistarget to be dropped at some point in the future.With the stock trading on 12
28、x2013E P/E and 6x 2013E EV/EBITDA we do not see any value in the name andkeep at HOLD.AZ Electronic Materials(AZEM.L,BUY):AZs recent CMD did not providequantitative targets,but did emphasise how the company is well placed tobenefit from new technology scenarios driven by smaller/more complexintegrat
29、ed circuits.AZs product roadmap for IC Niche leading up to 2016 aswell as potential for the silicon based materials in Optronics gives us greaterconfidence in the longer term growth profile of the company.We continue tosee value at a 14x 2013E P/E given the long term growth drivers and ourincreased
30、confidence in these from the CMD.BUY.Syngenta(SYNN.VX,BUY):Ahead of its crop update in India,Syngenta hasraised its sales targets for eight key crops to$25bn by 2020 from its earliertarget of$22bn.This increase is expected to be driven by an accelerating rateof innovation and strategy delivery acros
31、s the company.It is worth highlightingthat$25bn sales target is only for the eight key crops(including sugarcane,soybean,corn,cereals,rice,vegetables,specialty crops and diverse field crops)and we believe other crops also have the potential to grow at a similar rate.Forrice and vegetables the compan
32、y expects combined sales of$5bn.We expectmanagement will provide more details on its progress and potential in rice andvegetables during the crop update in India this week.The new target underlines Syngentas long term growth story andmanagements confidence in it.It implies a sales CAGR of 7.3%(2012-
33、2020)which is higher than the 5.8%sales CAGR forecast in our DCF.The companyhas not provided any update on Q3,although we expect a good quarter whichis also reflected in managements increased confidence in the long-termgrowth story.,Deutsche Bank AG/London,Page3,28 September 2012Global Chemicals Wee
34、klyLanxess(LXSG.DE,BUY):Lanxesss recent CMD reinforced its strong organicstory with the 2015 EBITDA target brought forward a year and new 2018targets introduced to capture the growth from longer term projects.Importantly management emphasised the strict capital discipline for newprojects giving conf
35、idence that returns will not be diluted,making this a lowerrisk organic growth story.This growth is supported by global megatrendsincluding demand for greener tires with labelling being introduced in Europewith other regions following.At 5x 2013E EV/EBITDA and 8x 2013 P/E thestock appears too cheap.
36、BUY.,Page4,Deutsche Bank AG/London,DeutscheBankAG/London,Page5,GlobalChemicalsWeekly,28September2012,Figure 4:European Valuations,Company,Mkt Cap US$,Rec.,Cur,Price,Target,P/E,EV/EBITDA,EV/Sales,FCF Yield%,Dividend Yield%,Bulk,27/09/12,12E10.0,13E9.4,14E8.5,12E6.1,13E5.7,14E5.1,12E0.8,13E0.8,14E0.7,
37、12E3.8%,13E7.8%,14E9.6%,12E2.9%,13E3.3%,14E3.8%,ArkemaBASFLanxessSolvayYule Catto,5,86978,6137,0119,647913,Buy EURBuy EURBuy EURHold EURHold GBp,73.866.665.592.4166.0,84.074.078.087.0160.0,9.811.89.311.47.8,9.110.98.211.37.5,8.19.97.210.56.8,5.86.06.16.16.5,5.35.65.46.05.9,4.65.14.85.65.2,0.91.00.80
38、.90.7,0.80.90.70.80.7,0.70.90.70.80.6,4.3%7.0%3.8%5.7%-1.6%,7.0%7.4%5.8%7.2%11.7%,10.6%8.1%9.7%7.8%12.0%,2.4%3.8%1.3%3.6%3.3%,3.0%4.1%1.8%3.8%3.8%,3.7%4.4%2.3%4.1%4.5%,Industrial Gases,17.7,15.8,14.1,9.4,8.3,7.6,2.3,2.0,1.9,2.8%,4.0%,4.6%,2.2%,2.5%,2.8%,Air LiquideLinde,39,22930,763,Hold EURBuy EUR,
39、97.9134.6,94.0153.0,19.216.2,17.414.2,15.612.6,9.79.2,8.87.8,8.07.1,2.42.2,2.21.9,2.01.8,3.2%2.5%,4.1%3.9%,4.6%4.6%,2.4%2.0%,2.7%2.4%,3.0%2.6%,Specialties,15.3,13.7,12.1,8.5,7.7,7.3,2.0,1.8,1.8,1.0%,3.3%,4.7%,2.7%,2.9%,3.3%,AkzoNobelAZ Electronic MatClariantCrodaDSM,13,6482,1013,5735,2738,275,Buy EU
40、RBuy GBpHold CHFBuy GBPHold EUR,45.0340.711.42405.039.4,56.0400.011.02750.039.0,13.715.312.517.913.9,12.013.611.216.211.8,10.612.310.114.410.8,7.19.16.112.06.7,6.48.15.710.96.2,5.77.35.39.75.7,0.83.00.73.20.8,0.82.70.73.00.8,0.72.40.72.70.7,-2.5%5.8%2.7%4.3%5.1%,4.6%6.2%6.1%4.9%6.6%,6.3%6.9%5.8%5.4%
41、8.2%,3.2%2.2%2.6%2.5%3.8%,3.3%2.6%2.7%3.0%3.9%,3.6%2.9%3.0%3.3%4.1%,Givaudan,8,623,Sell,CHF,891.0,820.0,17.5,15.5,14.0,11.3,10.1,9.2,2.3,2.2,2.0,3.6%,4.4%,4.9%,3.1%,3.6%,3.9%,Johnson MattheyLenzingSymriseUmicoreVictrexWacker,6,5892,2604,0015,9141,8133,219,Buy GBPBuy EURHold EURHold EURHold GBPHold E
42、UR,2445.067.226.340.61336.050.4,2775.088.025.038.01375.047.0,15.78.816.016.716.819.0,13.48.414.315.115.716.8,12.07.813.013.614.3na,9.85.110.89.310.44.2,8.55.19.78.19.73.8,7.65.08.97.48.8na,2.00.92.22.04.80.7,1.81.02.01.84.60.7,1.60.91.91.74.1na,5.4%-2.0%4.8%6.0%4.1%-25.6%,4.6%-4.3%6.4%6.0%3.3%-9.5%,
43、5.3%-7.0%6.8%4.4%4.4%na,2.3%3.1%2.4%2.6%2.7%1.6%,2.7%3.1%2.6%2.7%3.0%1.8%,3.0%3.4%2.9%3.1%3.3%na,Agrochemicals,11.9,11.0,10.4,7.7,7.1,6.7,2.0,1.9,1.7,6.7%,5.2%,5.8%,3.7%,4.0%,4.3%,ICLK+SSyngentaYara,15,3739,32233,82514,162,Hold USDHold EURBuy USDHold NOK,47.537.9347.0284.6,48.040.0400.0310.0,11.312.
44、616.07.7,10.311.013.88.8,9.410.112.49.5,8.56.610.74.8,7.96.39.25.0,7.36.18.25.0,2.61.92.41.0,2.51.82.20.9,2.41.82.00.8,5.0%5.2%5.5%11.2%,5.1%-1.2%6.5%10.4%,6.4%0.0%7.4%9.5%,6.2%3.7%2.6%2.5%,6.8%3.8%2.9%2.5%,7.4%4.0%3.2%2.6%,Hybrids,12.0,10.9,10.0,8.5,7.2,6.4,1.5,1.4,1.3,7.7%,7.4%,10.2%,3.5%,3.6%,3.7
45、%,BayerLonza,72,7472,735,Buy EURHold CHF,68.449.8,71.043.0,12.711.3,11.410.4,10.39.7,9.27.7,8.06.4,7.05.9,1.81.3,1.61.2,1.51.1,5.1%10.2%,9.1%5.7%,9.8%10.6%,2.6%4.3%,2.8%4.3%,3.0%4.3%,Sector Average,13.6,12.3,11.0,7.9,7.2,6.7,1.7,1.6,1.5,3.2%,4.9%,6.4%,2.9%,3.2%,3.5%,Notes:1)FCF defined as free cashf
46、low before acquisitions,dividends and share buyback programmes but after restructuring payments.2)FCF Yield is defined as FCF/Market CapSource:Deutsche Bank estimates,Syngenta Share price is in Swiss Francs but reporting is in US dollars,ICL report in US$while the stock price are in ILS.*For Johnson
47、 Matthey FY12E is March ending 2013.For Victrex FY12E is September ending 2012.,Page6,DeutscheBankAG/London,GlobalChemicalsWeekly,28September2012,Figure 5:European chemical sector financial performance,Company,Sales,Netdebt,Net Debt/EBITDA,BV/Share,EBIT Margin,EBITDA Margin,CFRoA,RoCE,RoE,12E,13E,14
48、E,12E,12E,12E,12E,13E,14E,12E,13E,14E,12E,13E,14E,12E,13E,14E,12E,13E,14E,Bulk,11.1,11.4,11.8,15.7,16.0,16.4,19.2,19.7,20.4,17.5,18.3,19.3,18.1,18.1,18.1,Arkema(Euro),6,552,6,661,6,965,739,0.8,37.91,10.3,10.6,11.2,15.0,15.3,15.8,19.0,19.0,20.1,16.7,16.8,18.0,18.6,17.3,17.0,BASF(Euro),75,871 77,736 8
49、0,158,8,248,0.7,29.48,11.5,11.9,12.4,16.0,16.4,16.8,20.5,21.1,21.8,18.5,19.4,20.4,19.2,19.3,19.3,Lanxess(Euro)Solvay(Euro)Yule Catto(GBP),9,244129661,164,9,733132721,223,10,199136851,293,14321327185,1.20.71.4,31.0990.560.93,9.59.09.5,10.18.79.3,10.48.99.4,13.415.411.5,14.015.111.4,14.215.311.5,16.91
50、1.014.4,17.810.914.6,18.411.415.2,18.510.018.9,19.79.818.3,20.710.419.1,18.69.019.1,18.38.721.1,18.19.119.9,Industrial Gases,15.5,15.9,16.2,24.0,24.4,24.6,15.7,16.8,17.5,15.4,15.7,16.3,13.4,14.1,14.4,Air Liquide(Euro)Linde(Euro),15,260 16,359 17,65415,210 17,263 18,445,5,3637,714,1.42.2,32.6871.53,1
