《PROPERTYSECTOR：GROWTHTOCONTINUEIN0917.ppt》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《PROPERTYSECTOR：GROWTHTOCONTINUEIN0917.ppt（11页珍藏版）》请在三一办公上搜索。
1、Nov-11,Jan-12,May-12,Mar-12,Sep-11,Jul-12,Sep-12,40.0,30.0,-10.0,20.0,10.0,0.0,-20.0,-30.0,Ytd,Thailand,Sector UpdatePOSITIVE(unchanged),14 September 2012Property SectorGrowth to Continue in 2013,Sector Index:SET Index:,204.881,259.96,We maintain our positive view on the Thai property sector and upg
2、rade our2012 housing registration expectations slightly to reflect 30%YoY growth.New house launches are expected to increase by at least 11%YoY.Theeight property firms we cover now have a total backlog of THB180b,which,Termporn Tantivivathttp:/www.maybank-ke.co.th(02)658-6300,will be recognised thro
3、ugh 2016.4Q12 earnings of SIRI,SPALI,LPN,andRML should reach record highs,driven by the condo backlog in 2H12.Werecommend investing in firms in a strong financial position,which willcontinue to post impressive growth in 2013,such as AP,PS,and QH.New housing registrations to grow by 11%YoY for 2012.T
4、he 8M12 new,LHSPALIAPQHLPNSIRIRMLPS,RatingHOLDHOLDBUYBUYHOLDHOLDT-BUYBUY,Target Price9.1019.9010.602.4819.302.542.2023.00,Upside8%4%27%36%6%3%28%29%,registrations amounted to 64,450 units(similar to 8M11).They are worthover THB178.356b(-10%YoY)at an average sales price of THB2.77m vs.THB3.07m/unit l
5、ast year.Condos are still leading the pack at 64%.Later thisyear,more projects will drive yearly new housing upward and beat ourprevious target of 90,000100,000 units.We have thus upgraded our yearlytarget to 100,000110,000 units,up by 11%YoY,which total valuedlaunched of THB260b(+5%YoY).Condos are
6、the key driver of 1H12 registrations;upgrade target.The,REIC(Real Estate Information Center)reported that new housing,Historical Chart,registrations in 1H12 are 53,736 units(+25%YoY)with a low rise:high riseratio of 40:60.AP,SPALI,SIRI,LH,and QH are preparing to transfer andrecognised many condo uni
7、ts in 4Q12.Thus,we believe that the 2012registrations will beat our previous estimate of 90,000 units,as the 1H12registrations already constitute 60%of our yearly target.We have thusupgraded our yearly registration target to 105,000110,000(up by 3035%YoY).Strong backlog of over THB180b.The eight pro
8、perty firms we cover havea total backlog worth THB180b with THB70b to be recognised in 2H12 and,Prop,SET,the rest through 2016.We expect the revenues of these eight firms to jumpto THB89b in 2H12(+69%HoH and+51%YoY).We also expect SIRI,Performance52-week High/Low1-mth,3-mth,Bt206.13/Bt123.096-mth 1-
9、yrs,SPALI,LPN,and RML to post record earnings in 4Q12,driven by strongbacklogs.Maintain positive view on sector and invest in company with strong,Absolute(%)Relative(%),9.76.8,19.09.4,23.114.5,32.58.5,41.815.4,backlogs and strong financial positions.We maintain our positive view onthe sector and bel
10、ieve that demand will recover in time,driven by improvedconsumer confidence.We have a forward view to 2013 performances and,financial positions.Our choices are AP(TP Bt10.60/share),PS(TPBt23.00/share),and QH(TP Bt2.48/share):their valuations are below bookvalue,thus making them appropriate for accum
11、ulation over the long term.We recommend Hold on LH,LPN,SPALI,and SIRI,as their 2013 earningswill be impressive this year.As the markets have already absorbed theturnaround earnings issue for RML and the high deliveries and revenuerecognition pressure,we have downgraded our recommendation toSpeculate
12、 Buy.,Stock,EPS(Bt),PER(Bt),Div Yield,ROE,2012,2013,2014,2012,2013,2014,2012,(%),LHSPALIAPQHLPNSIRIRMLPS,0.511.830.710.251.600.330.3231.60,0.552.090.880.211.760.390.3351.92,0.592.361.000.231.910.390.3322.21,16.4110.4011.837.2811.237.315.3211.20,16.539.5411.998.8510.206.255.139.30,15.348.4410.577.939
13、.446.195.188.09,5.1%3.8%3.4%6.0%4.5%6.2%0.0%2.7%,17.3%24.0%16.4%9.0%27.6%20.8%49.0%18.0%,Source:Company reports and KELIVE Research estimates.SEE APPENDIX I FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS,PROPERTY SECTORIn August,both values and new home launches increased.TheAgency for Real Es
14、tate Affairs(AREA)reported that new home projectlaunches for August amounted to 8,208 units(+28%MoM and+82%YoY),led by condos at 51%,followed by townhouse units at 28%,andSingle Detached House(SDH)at 19%.The total project values forAugust were THB27.258b(+35%MoM and+92%YoY),led by condovalues at 47%
15、,SDH at 32%,and townhouses at 19%.AP,LPN,PS,NUSA,PF,SENA,SIRI,QH,and NOBLE are the listed firms that willlaunch projects this month.For 8M12,new units launched were similar to last year but with alower volume.For 8M12,there were 248 new projects(-20%YoY)with the total number of 64,450 units(similar
16、to last year)worthTHB178.356b(-10%YoY).The average sales price wasTHB2.77m/unit,lower than THB3.07m/unit last year.The largest groupwas condo projects at 64%,followed by townhouses(19%)and SDHs(11%).We believe that more projects will be launched later this year;thus,our estimate of 90,000100,000 uni
17、ts now seems tooconservative.We have upgraded our 2012 projection to 105,000110,000(up by 3035%YoY).However,we maintain our yearly valueat THB260280b;the 8M12 value is already 66%of our yearlyprojection.Average sales price of THB3.32m highest for the year.Theaverage sales price in August was THB3.32
18、m the highest this yearand higher than the average price of THB2.77m.This was due to theincreasing values of SDH and condo projects in the higher mid-scaleprice ranges.In August,59%of these properties were valued at THB35m/unit and 16%at THB510m.Average sales ratio of 31%.The August average sales ra
19、tio was31%,falling from 37%last month.Despite the decline in the sales ratiofor all property types,the total number of units sold in August increasedslightly to 2,514 from 2,502.Sales increased for all property types,except for townhouses.,Chart 1:Proportion of new units launched in Aug 2012Condomin
20、iums50.7%Duplexes,Chart 2:Proportion of new values launched in Aug 2012Condominium,47.4%,2.5%Duplex,2.2%,Townhouses27.9%,SingleDetachedHouses 18.9%,Townhouse,18.6%,SingleDetached,Source:Company reports and KELIVE Research estimates.13 September 2012,Source:Company reports and KELIVE Research estimat
21、es.Page 2 of 11,Ja,n-1,Fe2,b-1,Ma2,r-1,Ap2,r-,Ma12,y-,Ju12,n-1,Ju2,l-,Au12,g-1,2,19,94,19,95,19,96,19,97,19,98,19,99,20,00,20,01,20,02,20,03,20,04,20,05,20,06,20,07,20,08,20,09,20,10,20,11,8M,12,1994,1995,1996,1997,1998,1999,2000,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,8M12,-,-,PROPER
22、TY SECTOR,Chart 3:Total new launches,19948M12,Chart 4:Sales prices per unit,Units350,000300,000250,000200,000150,000100,00050,0000,New units Launch(LHS),Value of Total Launch(RHS),Btmn450,000400,000350,000300,000250,000200,000150,000100,00050,0000,Btmn4.03.53.02.52.01.51.00.50.0,Source:Company repor
23、ts and KELIVE Research estimates.,Source:Company reports and KELIVE Research estimates.,Strong sector backlog of THB180bAt the end of 2Q12,the eight property firms we cover AP,LPN,QH,SPALI,RML,PS,SIRI,and LH had a strong backlog total ofTHB181.519bn.SIRI led the pack at THB36.5b,followed by PS(THB34
24、.16b)and AP(THB30.956b).The AP backlog has the longesttime span of revenue recognition until 2016.We estimate the backlog recognition duration as also important as thisstabilises revenue streams and lowers volatility of future revenue ineach company.Currently,AP,PS,and SPALI have backlogs that willb
25、e recognised over the next 34 years.Chart 5:Revenue Forecast for 2H12FBacklog,LPN,2H129,870,20137,725,20142,388,2015,2016,Total19,983,APPSSPALIRML,8,82916,8217,2106,000,10,1218,8166,0638,000,8,0006,1138,7303,847,3,8812,4125,861,125,30,95634,16227,86417,847,LH,3,956,2,542,6,498,QHSIRI,3,00014,573,3,0
26、0017,337,1,7004,599,7,70036,509,70,259,63,604,35,377,12,154,125,181,519,Source:Company reports and KELIVE Research estimates.Condo backlog supports revenue growth in 2H12The future backlog of the eight property firms we cover comes mainlyfrom the 25 condo projects that will be completed in 2H12(tabl
27、ebelow),which are worth over THB55b,with THB40b already sold andawaiting recognition.We thus believe that these projects will drive2H12 revenue further,with SPALI,SIRI,RML,and LPN expected toreach record-high earnings in 4Q12.,13 September 2012,Page 3 of 11,PROPERTY SECTORChart 6:Condominium transfe
28、rs in 2H12,Company,Project,Value(Btmn),%Sold,Value Sold Btmn),Starting Transfers in,SIRI,123456789,Wyne SukhumvitVia 49D Condo KrathuTEALPYNEKEYNED Condo Charun-BangkunnonBaan San KraamChelona Khao Tao,1,7706036261,4862,0481,7875261,4271,132,46%100%100%98%100%97%100%99%55%,8146036261,4562,0481,73352
29、61,413623,AugSepOctNovNovNovNovNovDec,Total,11,405,9,842,AP,12,The Address Sukhumvit 28The Address Sathorn 12,2,2604,100,99%89%,2,2373,649,4Q124Q12,Total,6,360,5,886,LPN,123456,Lumpini Ville Pattanakarn-New PhetchaburiLumpini Park Riverside-Rama 3Lumpini Ville Phibuisongkhram-RiverviewLumpini Condot
30、own Northern Pattaya-SukhumvitLumpini Condotown Ramintra-Lat Pla KhaoLumpini Ville Chaengwatthana-Pakkret,1,6905,4009401,2709701,700,70%80%100%100%92%79%,1,1834,3209401,2708921,343,3Q123Q124Q124Q124Q124Q12,Total,11,970,9,948,QH,12,The Trust Residence PonklaoCasa Condo Chang PuaK(Chiangmai),2,324429,
31、73%70%,1,697300,2H122H12,Total,2,753,1,997,SPALI,1234,Supalai Park RatchayothinSupalai Park Downtown PhuketSupalai Park Asoke-RatchadaCityhome Srinakarin,2,3008101,4401,100,98%90%99%20%,2,2547291,426220,2H122H122H122H12,Total,5,650,4,629,RML,1,The River,15,000,77%,6,006,2H12,Total,15000,6,006,LH,1,T
32、he Key Chaeng Wattana,1,860,90%,1,674,TotalGrand Total,1,86054,998,1,67439,982,Source:Company reports and KELIVE Research estimates.2H12 earnings to jump significantlyIn 1H12,the eight property firms had total presales of THB85b(+3%YoY and+3%QoQ).With the high backlog available in 2H12,all eightfirm
33、s should increase their revenue in 2H12 from 1H12.We expect 2H12 total revenue to beTHB88.657b,up by 69%HoH and51%YoY.RML will have the highest portion for 2H12,thanks to majorrevenue recognition from The River project,followed by LPN(revenuefrom six condos).If our revenue forecast is correct,RML wi
34、ll post thestrongest 2012 revenue growth of 551%YoY vs.SIRI at+38%and APat+22%YoY.However,apart from the backlog,we have also studied the securedrevenue of all eight firms.PS has the lowest possibility of missing thetarget with over 100%in secured revenue,followed by RML(97%)andAP(95%).The firms wit
35、h less than 100%secured revenue will have toincrease sales to be booked this year,so that they can acceleraterevenue to meet their targets.Chart 7:Revenue forecast for 2H12F,1H12,%Rev 1H12,2H12F,%Revenue 2H12,2012F,2012 Rev.Growth,2H11,%Growth YoY,LPNAPPSSPALIRMLLHQHSIRITotal,3,2646,99711,4693,3161,
36、31310,4365,02410,58652,405,23%42%43%24%17%47%42%38%,10,9589,64215,03710,4526,25911,7876,91417,60888,657,77%58%57%76%83%53%58%62%,14,22216,63926,50613,7687,57222,22311,93828,194141,062,15%22%14%9%551%16%21%38%25%,6,1267,38111,1175,37752610,7564,81212,65558,750,79%31%35%94%1090%10%44%39%51%,Source:Com
37、pany reports and KELIVE Research estimates.,13 September 2012,Page 4 of 11,PROPERTY SECTORChart 8:Revenue secured for 2012,1H12 Revenue,2H12 Backlog,2012F Rev.,%Secured Rev.,LPNAPPSSPALIRMLLHQHSIRI,3,2646,99711,4693,3161,31310,4365,02410,58652,405,9,8708,82916,8217,2106,0003,9563,00014,57370,259,14,
38、22216,63926,50613,7687,57222,22311,93828,194141,062,92%95%107%76%97%65%67%89%87%,Source:Company reports and KELIVE Research estimates.For 2013,we choose AP and PS as our top picksOur eight property firms have over THB64b that await recognition in2013.We expect the groups 2013 revenue to be THB160b(+
39、14%YoY)with 40%in secured revenue.RML has the highest secured revenue(99%),as all its projectscomprise condos,followed by AP(52%),SIRI(52%),and LPN(51%).In terms of revenue,SIRI will likely post the highest growth at+19%YoY,followed by AP(+18%YoY)and PS(+17%YoY).AP(Buy),2013TP THB10.60/shareExpect 2
40、013 presales to expand by 20%.We estimate APs 2013presales to grow by at least 20%YoY to THB24b(from+39%YoY toTHB20b in 2012).In 2013,AP will launch two projects outsideBangkok.Currently,AP has developed land for at least 68 moreprojects.AP is a high-quality housing developer with great designs ands
41、trong branding,especially after its rebranding moves in 3Q12.Secured revenue of 52%for 2013.AP has a high level of securedrevenue at 52%for the year 2013,supported by backlog recognitionfrom nine condo projects in 2013.Considering its strong presalesgrowth,a rising demand for low-rise properties wit
42、h short constructionperiods of 67 months,and the great client response,we believe thatsome presales will be recognised in 2013.Hence,we have upgradedour 2013 revenue forecast by 9%to THB19.566b(+18%YoY)andmaintained our net profit growth estimate at THB2.492b(+25.2%YoY).Based on a forward PER of 12x
43、,our TP for AP is THB10.60/share.PS(Buy)with a TP of Bt23.00/shareBacklog from 7 condos in 2013.In 2013,PS has a backlog from 7condos to be recognised at more than THB8bn.Moreover,there will bean additional upside,if the THB1.5bn backlog expected to berecognised in 4Q12 is delayed to 2013.PS has sat
44、isfactorily securedrevenue at 29%.With the increasing demand for low rise projects andthe shorter construction duration,we have upgraded our FY13 PSrevenue by 7%to THB30.912bn(+17%YoY)with a FY13 net profit ofTHB4.313bn(+18%YoY).Based on a forward PER of 12x,the PS TPis THB23.00/share.QH(Buy),2013TP
45、 THB2.48/shareExpect mid-to high-priced low-rise projects to drive growth.QHhas 23%of secured revenue in 2013 or worth THB3b;this come fromcondo backlog only.As we see improvements in the mid-to high-scalelow-rise market,we expect 2013 revenue to be THB13.05b(+9.3%YoY),with an increasing profit shar
46、e from affiliates such as HMPROand LHBANK.We expect a 2013 normalised profit growth of 24.8%YoY toTHB744b.Cheap valuation with upside from investments.QHs affiliate profitshares from HMPRO and LHBANK will help to support future net profitgrowth.QHs PBV valuation at 1x is the lowest in the sector.Thu
47、s QH,13 September 2012,Page 5 of 11,PROPERTY SECTORis worthy accumulating as a long-term investment.Based on a forwardPER of 12x,the TP for QH is THB2.48/share.LPN(Hold),2013TP THB19.30/shareLow secured revenue,with increases later from shortconstruction period.LPNs secured revenue is 51%for 2013.Ho
48、wever,this was the figure shown at the end of 2Q12,while LPN is afast project developer with approximate construction duration periodsof only 1215 months for a 2530 fl condo.In 3Q12,LPN will launchthe Lumpini Ville Naklua-Wong Amat 2,worth THB2.36b,which will becompleted in 4Q13.The booking of this
49、project will increase its securedrevenue.However,the risk lies in the demand.If demand for low-tomid-scale condos weakens and secured revenue does not increase,the firm could miss its 2013 revenue target of THB15.201b(+7%YoY).2013 net profit is expected to be THB2.604b(+10.1%YoY).LPNs strong point i
50、s the twice-yearly dividend of around 4.55.5%.However,we still maintain our Hold call,based on a forward PER of11x.Our TP for LPN is THB19.30/share.SPALI(Hold),TP THB19.90/shareDespite high secured revenue,low growth.SPALIs securedrevenue is 42%for the year 2013.We project 2013 revenue tobeTHB14.6b(
